SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession PredictionSurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday Season
From holiday spending to inflation’s impact, here’s what analysts are forecasting for the season.
Bain & Company and Deloitte recently shared their holiday forecasts.
New York—As fall approaches, retail analysts are sharing their predictions for the holiday season, starting with Bain & Company and Deloitte.
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
Related stories will be right here …
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
As the cost of living increases, some will scale back holiday spending.
In its forecast, Bain highlighted “elevated nondiscretionary costs,” including housing and healthcare.
High interest rates will make spending pricier for shoppers. Debt also will be a factor in how much shoppers spend, especially as student debt payments resume.
Though inflation is slowing, said Bain, prices are higher than last year, which will boost nominal sales.
“Lead with value messages and strategic promotions to draw in cautious customers,” advised Bain.
Deloitte’s Handrinos said, “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high.”
On the bright side, wages, and stocks are up year-over-year, said Bain, which will give some shoppers more disposable income.
Upper-income households, those making more than $100,000, account for 51 percent of spending.
Bain’s survey found that people in this income bracket have less “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
Middle-income households, those making $50,000 to $100,000, account for 25 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have less “intent to spend” and less “intent to save.”
Lower-income households, those making less than $50,000, account for 24 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have higher “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
For all income levels, the overall outlook for the season increased while the “intent to use debt” to finance holiday purchases decreased.
The holiday shopping season could begin as early as October.
Shoppers may start checking things off their holiday shopping list before Halloween.
Bain predicted October events could fast track holiday spending again. The group highlighted Amazon Prime Day in particular, slated for Oct. 10-11.
To compete with Amazon, Target ran its own special promotion, “Target Deal Days,” last year, and may bring back the sale this year.
“Get an early lead—shopping starts earlier, and customers could run out of budget,” Bain advised retailers.
Retailers should utilize technology to elevate marketing strategies.
As holiday sales competition heats up, retailers should make the most of every tool at their disposal.
“From gen AI [generative artificial intelligence] to livestream, new tech enables more targeted, personalized marketing,” said Bain.
“Stress positive common values to bring customers holiday joy in tough times,” Bain added.
TikTok recently released its holiday guide, including a free-to-download marketing playbook.
The platform said half of its users turn to its “For You Page” for holiday and shopping events content.
TikTok users are 1.4 times more likely to buy a product they see on the platform, the company said.
More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsJun 10, 2026
31.62-Carat ‘Azure Blue’ Diamond Sells For $8M+ at Christie’sIt was a banner day for blue gemstones, with another blue diamond topping $8 million and a 41-carat sapphire going for $2.3 million.
MajorsJun 10, 2026
Saks Global Receives Bankruptcy Court Approval for ReorganizationThe approval means the retailer is on track to exit bankruptcy proceedings this summer.
CrimeJun 10, 2026
2 Suspects Arrested in Texas Jewelry Store RobberyThe men are believed to be part of the group of several masked suspects that robbed Marc Robinson Jewelers in April.
Brought to you by
All Eyes on Gold Prices. Alternatives to Look For. And What to BEWARE of in VegasAs gold prices rise, today’s retailers are looking for alternatives at prices that will appeal to wider audiences.
CollectionsJun 10, 2026
Sylvie Debuts ‘Elevated’ Bridal Collection Inspired By Designer’s RingThe bridal-focused brand is also launching its Custom Atelier this summer, a digital custom design tool for its authorized retailers.
Weekly QuizJun 05, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
EditorsJun 09, 2026
Q&A: Al Cook on the Lab-Grown ‘Bubble,’ Dwindling Diamond Supply The De Beers Group CEO also discussed tariffs, Desert Diamonds, and the pending sale of De Beers in an interview with Michelle Graff.
MajorsJun 09, 2026
Wilkerson's Russ Whitehouse RetiresThe industry veteran is bringing his 56-year run in the fine jewelry sector to an end.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
Events & AwardsJun 09, 2026
Pride Month Panel to Highlight LGBTQ+ Jewelry VoicesThe panel discussion will feature LGBTQ+ leaders across the jewelry, luxury, and creative industries.
CollectionsJun 09, 2026
Marie Lichtenberg’s New Capsule Collection Is a Smash, LiterallyInspired by a locket that got run over, the “Smash” capsule collection reimagines the shape of Lichtenberg’s signature style.
MajorsJun 09, 2026
Frederick Goldman Names Director of Sales for SoutheastThe company has promoted Katherine Whitacre to the role.
MajorsJun 08, 2026
Stuller Expands Selection of Lab-Grown Diamonds, Demi-Fine JewelryThe jewelry manufacturer has added Taylor Swift-esque diamond shapes, and more silver, gold vermeil, and gold-plated jewelry.
SourcingJun 08, 2026
Sally Morrison to Depart De Beers This Summer Morrison has been marketing diamonds on and off since the early 2000s and said she is leaving to “pursue new projects.”
TrendsJun 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: June’s Birthstone TrioThose born in June can celebrate with pearl, alexandrite, and moonstone jewelry.
TechnologyJun 08, 2026
Overnight Mountings Launches Ring Builder PlatformThe platform allows retailers to guide clients through a customizable engagement ring buying experience in a branded interface.
IndependentsJun 05, 2026
Pennsylvania Jewelry Store To Close After 79 YearsJim Springer, owner of Dunkelberger’s Fine Jewelry, is heading into retirement.
CollectionsJun 05, 2026
Rebel Jewelry’s Charm Symbolizes Perseverance for Pride MonthThe “Tunnel” charm, our Piece of the Week, celebrates Pride Month with its design inspired by hope and the light at the end of the tunnel.
SourcingJun 05, 2026
State of Diamonds: The Way Forward for Natural DiamondsThe jewelry industry is reassessing its positioning as Gen Z reshapes the retail landscape and lab grown continues to gain market share.
AuctionsJun 04, 2026
Treasures from Maurice Tempelsman’s ‘Marvelous’ Life Head to AuctionUp for auction at Sotheby’s, the collection of Tempelsman’s personal effects includes a Cartier Tank watch Jackie O. gifted him.
CollectionsJun 04, 2026
Buddha Mama to Spend the Summer in AspenThe Miami-based fine jewelry brand will host its first summer residency in the Colorado mountain town from June 5 to Aug. 23.
MajorsJun 04, 2026
AGS Honors Late Peter Yantzer, Holds Time Capsule CeremonyThe organization also announced its international board of directors for the 2026-2027 term.
MajorsJun 04, 2026
Neiman Marcus’ Downtown Dallas Store to Close in SeptemberSaks Global confirmed the closure this week, spelling the end for a store that’s been part of downtown Dallas for more than 100 years.
ColumnistsJun 03, 2026
Peter Smith: When Top Talent Leaves and What It Says About YouSmith discusses how managers should handle a top performer's exit, warning that a poor response could have a lasting impact.
GradingJun 03, 2026
GIA’s Tracr Investment Is First Step Toward Industry-Owned PlatformThe Gemological Institute of America is now a 30 percent stakeholder in Tracr, the De Beers-backed blockchain for diamonds.
WatchesJun 03, 2026
The 1916 Company Taking Pre-Owned Rolexes on the Road, AgainThe retailer is bringing Rolex Certified Pre-Owned watches to five U.S. cities in 2026 for collectors to see, try on, and purchase.
IndependentsJun 03, 2026
Jessica Alba Is the New Face of Gabriel & Co.The actress and entrepreneur stars in the jeweler’s new campaign that celebrates life’s quiet moments.
TrendsJun 03, 2026
State of Design: Only the Innovative Will SurviveThe price of gold has risen, affecting the number of pieces designers make, the materials they use, and how they position themselves.
