SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession PredictionSurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday Season
From holiday spending to inflation’s impact, here’s what analysts are forecasting for the season.
Bain & Company and Deloitte recently shared their holiday forecasts.
New York—As fall approaches, retail analysts are sharing their predictions for the holiday season, starting with Bain & Company and Deloitte.
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
Related stories will be right here …
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
As the cost of living increases, some will scale back holiday spending.
In its forecast, Bain highlighted “elevated nondiscretionary costs,” including housing and healthcare.
High interest rates will make spending pricier for shoppers. Debt also will be a factor in how much shoppers spend, especially as student debt payments resume.
Though inflation is slowing, said Bain, prices are higher than last year, which will boost nominal sales.
“Lead with value messages and strategic promotions to draw in cautious customers,” advised Bain.
Deloitte’s Handrinos said, “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high.”
On the bright side, wages, and stocks are up year-over-year, said Bain, which will give some shoppers more disposable income.
Upper-income households, those making more than $100,000, account for 51 percent of spending.
Bain’s survey found that people in this income bracket have less “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
Middle-income households, those making $50,000 to $100,000, account for 25 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have less “intent to spend” and less “intent to save.”
Lower-income households, those making less than $50,000, account for 24 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have higher “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
For all income levels, the overall outlook for the season increased while the “intent to use debt” to finance holiday purchases decreased.
The holiday shopping season could begin as early as October.
Shoppers may start checking things off their holiday shopping list before Halloween.
Bain predicted October events could fast track holiday spending again. The group highlighted Amazon Prime Day in particular, slated for Oct. 10-11.
To compete with Amazon, Target ran its own special promotion, “Target Deal Days,” last year, and may bring back the sale this year.
“Get an early lead—shopping starts earlier, and customers could run out of budget,” Bain advised retailers.
Retailers should utilize technology to elevate marketing strategies.
As holiday sales competition heats up, retailers should make the most of every tool at their disposal.
“From gen AI [generative artificial intelligence] to livestream, new tech enables more targeted, personalized marketing,” said Bain.
“Stress positive common values to bring customers holiday joy in tough times,” Bain added.
TikTok recently released its holiday guide, including a free-to-download marketing playbook.
The platform said half of its users turn to its “For You Page” for holiday and shopping events content.
TikTok users are 1.4 times more likely to buy a product they see on the platform, the company said.
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsJul 26, 2024
Diamonds Direct Opens Store in AtlantaIt’s the Signet-owned banner’s first location in Georgia.
TrendsJul 26, 2024
Piece of the Week: Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Double Loop’ EarringsCommemorate “brat summer” with these green hoops.
EditorsJul 26, 2024
Out & About: A Dispatch from the Nation’s Smallest StateEditor-in-Chief Michelle Graff returns from Rhode Island with thoughts about in-store shopping and a trends report.
Brought to you by
The End of an Era? Lab-Grown Diamonds' Journey Towards Price StabilityAs the demand for lab-grown diamond jewelry may still be increasing, the most notable change we are likely to see is price stabilization.
Supplier BulletinJul 25, 2024
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionSponsored by Gemological Institute of America
Weekly QuizJul 25, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TechnologyJul 25, 2024
Amazon, BBB Sue Website Allegedly Peddling Fake Reviews They claim ReviewServiceUSA.com was selling both positive and negative reviews of products and businesses.
SourcingJul 25, 2024
De Beers’ H1 Revenue Falls 21% in ‘Weak’ MarketLab-grown diamond sales in the United States and ongoing economic challenges in China are impacting natural diamond demand.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionGIA®’s most advanced microscope has new features to optimize greater precision and comfort.
IndependentsJul 25, 2024
Store Designer Ruth Mellergaard DiesA longtime member of IJO, she’s remembered for her passion for design, learning, and environmentalism.
FinancialsJul 25, 2024
Boucheron, Pomellato Post Double-Digit Growth in Q2 The gains come amid a tough time for parent company Kering, which saw sales slide 11 percent in the first half of the year.
MajorsJul 25, 2024
Shane Co. Partners With Kids In Need Foundation to Donate 7,200 BackpacksThe fine jewelry retailer filled backpacks with back-to-school essentials for students in 13 states.
FinancialsJul 24, 2024
LVMH’s First-Half Jewelry, Watch Sales Dip 5%Tiffany & Co. is focusing on its “iconic” collections while the company has made changes at the top at TAG Heuer and Hublot.
MajorsJul 24, 2024
See Chaumet’s Paris Olympic Medals Inspired by its High JewelryThe Parisian brand is the first jewelry company in the history of the Olympic and Paralympic Games to design the medals.
MajorsJul 24, 2024
Jewelers Mutual Acquires Pawnbroker Insurance ProviderUnion Life & Casualty will join JM Insurance Agency Partners, expanding the provider’s pawnbroker coverage.
MajorsJul 24, 2024
Ben Bridge Announces 2024 Lonia Tate Scholarship WinnerLos Angeles-based Bradlei Smith was selected for this year’s award.
ColumnistsJul 23, 2024
Peter Smith: The Case for Optimism in Sales In his latest column, Smith shares multiple reasons why people who look at the glass as being hall full often make better salespeople.
SourcingJul 23, 2024
De Beers’ Production Drops 15% in Q2The company also reported the $150 million sale of an iron ore royalty right, part of its ongoing effort to divest “non-core” assets.
IndependentsJul 23, 2024
Long’s Jewelers Is Giving Away a Luxury Cape Cod VacationThe giveaway is part of the New England jeweler’s summer bridal event.
CollectionsJul 23, 2024
Guzema Debuts ‘Flower Power’ CampaignThe ad features three celebrity florists creating floral sculptures while wearing jewelry by Guzema.
Policies & IssuesJul 23, 2024
Diamonds Do Good Announces Its 2024 Entrepreneurship Grant WinnersThe grant provided a total of $100,000 to support 13 entrepreneurs from diamond communities in Africa and India.
CrimeJul 22, 2024
Florida Jeweler Shot, Killed Following Argument With CustomerGhazi Michel Osta, or “Gus,” was killed Friday by an 83-year-old man said to be a frequent customer at his store, Volusia Gold & Diamond.
Policies & IssuesJul 22, 2024
JVC’s Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez Joins RJCThe organization also announced Effie Marinos as its new specialist advisor for technical standards, as well as four other appointments.
SourcingJul 22, 2024
AWDC Names Karen Rentmeesters as CEORentmeesters has served as interim CEO since April following former CEO Ari Epstein’s resignation.
IndependentsJul 19, 2024
Longtime D.C. Jeweler Brian Mann Dies at 70Mann, whose family’s jewelry store was located inside the Pentagon, is remembered for being a thoughtful champion of the industry.
IndependentsJul 19, 2024
The 1916 Company Opens New Tudor BoutiqueThe 500-square-foot boutique is located in Denver’s Cherry Creek Shopping Center.
CollectionsJul 19, 2024
Piece of the Week: Messika’s ‘So Move Max’ NecklaceDance all night long with the “So Move Max” set’s necklace.
WatchesJul 18, 2024
TAG Heuer, Hublot Will Have New CEOs Luxury giant LVMH is reshuffling the leadership in its watches division.
