SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession PredictionSurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday Season
From holiday spending to inflation’s impact, here’s what analysts are forecasting for the season.
Bain & Company and Deloitte recently shared their holiday forecasts.
New York—As fall approaches, retail analysts are sharing their predictions for the holiday season, starting with Bain & Company and Deloitte.
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
Related stories will be right here …
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
As the cost of living increases, some will scale back holiday spending.
In its forecast, Bain highlighted “elevated nondiscretionary costs,” including housing and healthcare.
High interest rates will make spending pricier for shoppers. Debt also will be a factor in how much shoppers spend, especially as student debt payments resume.
Though inflation is slowing, said Bain, prices are higher than last year, which will boost nominal sales.
“Lead with value messages and strategic promotions to draw in cautious customers,” advised Bain.
Deloitte’s Handrinos said, “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high.”
On the bright side, wages, and stocks are up year-over-year, said Bain, which will give some shoppers more disposable income.
Upper-income households, those making more than $100,000, account for 51 percent of spending.
Bain’s survey found that people in this income bracket have less “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
Middle-income households, those making $50,000 to $100,000, account for 25 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have less “intent to spend” and less “intent to save.”
Lower-income households, those making less than $50,000, account for 24 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have higher “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
For all income levels, the overall outlook for the season increased while the “intent to use debt” to finance holiday purchases decreased.
The holiday shopping season could begin as early as October.
Shoppers may start checking things off their holiday shopping list before Halloween.
Bain predicted October events could fast track holiday spending again. The group highlighted Amazon Prime Day in particular, slated for Oct. 10-11.
To compete with Amazon, Target ran its own special promotion, “Target Deal Days,” last year, and may bring back the sale this year.
“Get an early lead—shopping starts earlier, and customers could run out of budget,” Bain advised retailers.
Retailers should utilize technology to elevate marketing strategies.
As holiday sales competition heats up, retailers should make the most of every tool at their disposal.
“From gen AI [generative artificial intelligence] to livestream, new tech enables more targeted, personalized marketing,” said Bain.
“Stress positive common values to bring customers holiday joy in tough times,” Bain added.
TikTok recently released its holiday guide, including a free-to-download marketing playbook.
The platform said half of its users turn to its “For You Page” for holiday and shopping events content.
TikTok users are 1.4 times more likely to buy a product they see on the platform, the company said.
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsMay 16, 2025
Saks Fifth Avenue, Amazon Partner on Luxury Online StorefrontPlus, parent company Saks Global announces plans to cut ties with up to 600 vendors.
Recorded WebinarsMay 16, 2025
Watch: Physical Retail Is Not DeadPeter Smith joined Michelle Graff to chat about the state of brick-and-mortar stores and share a few book and podcast recommendations.
CollectionsMay 16, 2025
Piece of the Week: Tejen’s ‘Candy Bowl’ Torque NecklaceThe necklace features a candy-colored Australian white opal in 18-karat Fairmined gold, as the brand was named a Fairmined ambassador.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
Supplier BulletinMay 15, 2025
Treasure Hunting at the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry and Watch ShowSponsored by the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry and Watch Show
Weekly QuizMay 15, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsMay 15, 2025
'The Mediterranean Blue' Diamond Sells for $21M at Sotheby’sA private American collector purchased the 10-carat fancy vivid blue diamond.
CollectionsMay 15, 2025
Jessica McCormack’s ‘Fruit Salad’ Collection Is Fresh for SummerThe designer has taken the appeal of freshly picked fruit and channeled it into a capsule collection of earrings, necklaces, and pendants.
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest AdditionSupplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
SourcingMay 15, 2025
Tariffs Take Toll on India’s Gem and Jewelry Industry in April The country’s gem and jewelry exports fell 5 percent year-over-year last month, while imports declined 18 percent.
Policies & IssuesMay 15, 2025
State of Retail: How to Better Serve Customers With DisabilitiesAround 54 million Americans and counting live with a disability. Here’s how to make your jewelry store and website more accessible.
Events & AwardsMay 15, 2025
Poet Sekou Andrews to Give Closing Keynote at ConvergeThe event is also accepting poster submissions now through June 16.
Policies & IssuesMay 14, 2025
Here’s What Happened to Pope Francis’ RingBefore Pope Leo XIV was elected, a centuries-old procedure regarding the late pontiff’s ring was followed.
AuctionsMay 14, 2025
Custom Rolex Pulled From Sotheby’s SaleThe one-of-a-kind platinum Rolex Cosmograph Daytona was estimated to fetch up to $1.7 million.
Lab-GrownMay 14, 2025
State of Diamonds: What’s Next for Lab-Grown Diamonds?While the product has entrenched itself in the market, retailers and consultants are assessing the next phase of the category’s development.
CrimeMay 14, 2025
Seattle Detectives Seek Public’s Help in Tiffany & Co. Robberies The police are trying to identify the man suspected of robbing two Tiffany & Co. locations in the area.
MajorsMay 14, 2025
Jeff Corey Elected Chair of JBT Board The well-known Maine jeweler takes over for Brian Fleming and will serve a one-year term.
Policies & IssuesMay 14, 2025
Foundrae Donates $11K to Ethical MetalsmithsThe donation was the result of the brand’s annual Earth Day Ingot event.
IndependentsMay 13, 2025
Eiseman Jewels’ Renovated Dallas Store Is Bigger and BetterLocated in NorthPark Center, the revamped store is nearly 2,000 square feet larger and includes the first Tudor boutique in Dallas.
MajorsMay 13, 2025
DCA Announces New Learning Platform, Course UpdatesThe nonprofit has made updates to the content in its beginner and advanced jewelry sales courses.
MajorsMay 13, 2025
BIJC Launches New Education FundBIJC President Malyia McNaughton will shift roles to lead the new foundation, and Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez will succeed her as president.
TrendsMay 13, 2025
State of Jewelry Design: The Top 10 Jewelry Trends of the Past DecadeAs a nod to the theme of JCK Las Vegas 2025, “Decades,” National Jeweler took a look back at the top 10 jewelry trends of the past 10 years.
Lab-GrownMay 12, 2025
Lightbox to Go Dark by Summer, De Beers Says The company plans to halt all consumer-facing activity this summer, while Lightbox factory operations will cease by the end of the year.
Policies & IssuesMay 12, 2025
Tariffs on Chinese Imports Temporarily Slashed as U.S.-China Reach Deal Following weekend negotiations, the tax on Chinese goods imported into the United States will drop by 115 percent for the next 90 days.
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
Jewelry By Picasso, Dalí on Display at Florida Art Museum “Artists’ Jewelry: From Cubism to Pop, the Diane Venet Collection” is on view at the Norton Museum of Art through October.
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
CASE Awards Now Accepting Entries For 2025The deadline to submit is June 16.
IndependentsMay 09, 2025
Lugano Diamonds CEO Resigns Amid Internal InvestigationMoti Ferder stepped down Wednesday and will not receive any severance pay, parent company Compass Diversified said.
CollectionsMay 09, 2025
Pieces of the Week: Marie Lichtenberg’s Collaborations for Mother’s DayLichtenberg partnered with luxury platform Mytheresa on two designs honoring the connection between mothers and daughters.
