SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession PredictionSurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday Season
From holiday spending to inflation’s impact, here’s what analysts are forecasting for the season.
Bain & Company and Deloitte recently shared their holiday forecasts.
New York—As fall approaches, retail analysts are sharing their predictions for the holiday season, starting with Bain & Company and Deloitte.
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
Related stories will be right here …
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
As the cost of living increases, some will scale back holiday spending.
In its forecast, Bain highlighted “elevated nondiscretionary costs,” including housing and healthcare.
High interest rates will make spending pricier for shoppers. Debt also will be a factor in how much shoppers spend, especially as student debt payments resume.
Though inflation is slowing, said Bain, prices are higher than last year, which will boost nominal sales.
“Lead with value messages and strategic promotions to draw in cautious customers,” advised Bain.
Deloitte’s Handrinos said, “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high.”
On the bright side, wages, and stocks are up year-over-year, said Bain, which will give some shoppers more disposable income.
Upper-income households, those making more than $100,000, account for 51 percent of spending.
Bain’s survey found that people in this income bracket have less “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
Middle-income households, those making $50,000 to $100,000, account for 25 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have less “intent to spend” and less “intent to save.”
Lower-income households, those making less than $50,000, account for 24 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have higher “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
For all income levels, the overall outlook for the season increased while the “intent to use debt” to finance holiday purchases decreased.
The holiday shopping season could begin as early as October.
Shoppers may start checking things off their holiday shopping list before Halloween.
Bain predicted October events could fast track holiday spending again. The group highlighted Amazon Prime Day in particular, slated for Oct. 10-11.
To compete with Amazon, Target ran its own special promotion, “Target Deal Days,” last year, and may bring back the sale this year.
“Get an early lead—shopping starts earlier, and customers could run out of budget,” Bain advised retailers.
Retailers should utilize technology to elevate marketing strategies.
As holiday sales competition heats up, retailers should make the most of every tool at their disposal.
“From gen AI [generative artificial intelligence] to livestream, new tech enables more targeted, personalized marketing,” said Bain.
“Stress positive common values to bring customers holiday joy in tough times,” Bain added.
TikTok recently released its holiday guide, including a free-to-download marketing playbook.
The platform said half of its users turn to its “For You Page” for holiday and shopping events content.
TikTok users are 1.4 times more likely to buy a product they see on the platform, the company said.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsApr 29, 2026
The Thought Process Behind the Mother's Day Email Opt-OutSome retailers are taking a nuanced approach to marketing what can be a difficult holiday for many.
IndependentsApr 29, 2026
Dick Abbott to Retire From The EdgeThe Edge has announced its new CEO, as well as a new partnership with an investment firm focused on founder-led software businesses.
SourcingApr 29, 2026
De Beers’ Production Rises, Market Remains ‘Challenged’De Beers’ diamond production was up 17 percent in Q1, boosted by increased output at its mines in South Africa and Canada.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
AuctionsApr 29, 2026
This'll Be the Day You Own John Wayne's RingA signet ring belonging to the Western film star of Hollywood’s Golden Age will be up for auction at Elmwood’s next month.
Weekly QuizApr 23, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Policies & IssuesApr 28, 2026
Tariff Refunds: How to File, What to Expect Importers can submit claims now to receive money back for the IEEPA tariffs they’ve paid, with refunds expected to take up to 90 days.
IndependentsApr 28, 2026
This North Carolina Jeweler Is Passing the TorchThe owners of Gregory Jewelers in Morganton, North Carolina, are heading into retirement.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
SourcingApr 28, 2026
Doug Hucker Retires From ICAThe colored gemstone industry leader is heading into retirement after four years as the association’s CEO.
SourcingApr 28, 2026
NDC Hires Tapestry Exec to Head Global Marketing Susie Dewey joins the Natural Diamond Council as its new chief marketing officer.
AuctionsApr 27, 2026
12 Years Later, the ‘Ocean Dream’ Diamond Resurfaces at Christie’sThe largest known fancy vivid blue-green diamond could fetch more than $12 million at its second auction appearance.
ColumnistsApr 27, 2026
Stop Treating Mother’s Day Like an AfterthoughtEmmanuel Raheb says jewelers need to start marketing early and make it easy for customers to pick a gift for mom.
IndependentsApr 27, 2026
Longnecker Jewelry Celebrates 30 YearsIn honor of the milestone, the Nebraska jeweler has debuted Leslie & Co., its new in-house jewelry brand.
MajorsApr 27, 2026
JBT Re-Elects Jeff Corey as Board ChairThe trade organization, which held its annual elections earlier this year, also added five new board members.
TechnologyApr 24, 2026
TwentyFour’s Digital-Age Locket Is a Virtual VaultThe “Vault” charm, our Piece of the Week, expands on the memories that can be stored in a locket by connecting to your phone.
Events & AwardsApr 24, 2026
Hamptons Jewelry Show to Return in JulyThe open-to-the-public luxury jewelry and timepiece show, in its second year, is slated for July 23-26.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Meet the Real Moms of Day’s JewelersThe jeweler’s Mother’s Day campaign highlights the women who work there—mothers, grandmothers, women who want to be mothers, and dog moms.
Supplier BulletinApr 23, 2026
JM® Shipping Solution: Smarter Shipping for High-Value GoodsSponsored by Jewelers Mutual
Lab-GrownApr 23, 2026
Charles & Colvard May Sell Assets for $1.5MThe proposed agreement follows the moissanite maker’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filing last month.
AuctionsApr 23, 2026
John Jacob Astor IV’s Titanic Pocket Watch Fetches $1MThe Patek Philippe for Tiffany & Co. timepiece Astor brought aboard the ill-fated ship sold for double its estimate at a Freeman’s auction.
CollectionsApr 23, 2026
Adam Neeley’s High Jewelry Collection Steps Into Salvador Dalí’s GardenThe “Dalí’s Garden” collection was inspired by a surreal dream Neeley had after cooking a recipe from Salvador Dalí’s 1973 cookbook.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Windsor Jewelers Names New Buying DirectorNatalie Feanny has been appointed to the role.
CrimeApr 22, 2026
New Mexico Couple Pleads Guilty to Selling Fake Native American JewelryThe pair falsely claimed their jewelry was made by Navajo artists, but it was imported from Vietnam.
AuctionsApr 22, 2026
Roberta Flack’s Jewelry Is Going Up for AuctionJulien’s Auctions is selling the musician’s fine and fashion jewelry alongside her clothing, gold records, and other memorabilia.
CollectionsApr 22, 2026
British Museum Curator Pens Book on ‘The Tudor Heart’Rachel King’s book dives into the history of the pendant believed to have belonged to Henry VIII and his first wife, Katherine of Aragon.
Events & AwardsApr 22, 2026
Here’s What Sy Kessler Has on Tap for Las Vegas The company will have deals on precious metals testers as well as the latest in lab-grown diamond detection technology and security.
WatchesApr 21, 2026
Coco Chanel Enters the Game with New Watch CollectionGabrielle “Coco” Chanel is a character in the “Coco Game” collection of watches and the queen in its first haute horlogerie chessboard.
