SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession PredictionSurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday Season
From holiday spending to inflation’s impact, here’s what analysts are forecasting for the season.
Bain & Company and Deloitte recently shared their holiday forecasts.
New York—As fall approaches, retail analysts are sharing their predictions for the holiday season, starting with Bain & Company and Deloitte.
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
Related stories will be right here …
Both companies are projecting sales growth for the season, but dwindling savings and inflation may put a damper on the celebrations.
From sales predictions to thoughts on when the shopping season will begin, here are five key takeaways from their recently released 2023 holiday forecasts.
Retail sales will grow this holiday season but not much.
Bain is forecasting 3 percent growth in U.S. retail holiday sales, the lowest uptick since 2018, with sales reaching $915 billion.
Deloitte expects holiday retail sales to grow between 4 and 5 percent, with sales totaling $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion from November to January. Last year, sales were up 8 percent in the same period.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year.”
Bachman added that its forecast reflects dwindling pandemic-era savings, which is expected to weigh on retail sales.
A majority of the sales growth will stem from e-commerce.
Bain predicted 3 percent growth for the season, with 90 percent of that growth coming from non-store sales, meaning e-commerce and mail order.
Deloitte forecasted e-commerce sales to grow between 10 and 13 percent year-over-year during the 2023-2024 holiday season, with sales totaling between $278 billion and $284 billion. Last year, sales grew 8 percent in the same period.
“This season, e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution, and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
Bain advised retailers to “use stores to support profitable online growth—shipping, returns, and trials.”
As the cost of living increases, some will scale back holiday spending.
In its forecast, Bain highlighted “elevated nondiscretionary costs,” including housing and healthcare.
High interest rates will make spending pricier for shoppers. Debt also will be a factor in how much shoppers spend, especially as student debt payments resume.
Though inflation is slowing, said Bain, prices are higher than last year, which will boost nominal sales.
“Lead with value messages and strategic promotions to draw in cautious customers,” advised Bain.
Deloitte’s Handrinos said, “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high.”
On the bright side, wages, and stocks are up year-over-year, said Bain, which will give some shoppers more disposable income.
Upper-income households, those making more than $100,000, account for 51 percent of spending.
Bain’s survey found that people in this income bracket have less “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
Middle-income households, those making $50,000 to $100,000, account for 25 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have less “intent to spend” and less “intent to save.”
Lower-income households, those making less than $50,000, account for 24 percent of spending. In this income bracket, people have higher “intent to spend” and higher “intent to save.”
For all income levels, the overall outlook for the season increased while the “intent to use debt” to finance holiday purchases decreased.
The holiday shopping season could begin as early as October.
Shoppers may start checking things off their holiday shopping list before Halloween.
Bain predicted October events could fast track holiday spending again. The group highlighted Amazon Prime Day in particular, slated for Oct. 10-11.
To compete with Amazon, Target ran its own special promotion, “Target Deal Days,” last year, and may bring back the sale this year.
“Get an early lead—shopping starts earlier, and customers could run out of budget,” Bain advised retailers.
Retailers should utilize technology to elevate marketing strategies.
As holiday sales competition heats up, retailers should make the most of every tool at their disposal.
“From gen AI [generative artificial intelligence] to livestream, new tech enables more targeted, personalized marketing,” said Bain.
“Stress positive common values to bring customers holiday joy in tough times,” Bain added.
TikTok recently released its holiday guide, including a free-to-download marketing playbook.
The platform said half of its users turn to its “For You Page” for holiday and shopping events content.
TikTok users are 1.4 times more likely to buy a product they see on the platform, the company said.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
FinancialsAug 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q2 Sales Up 3% as Engagement Ring Sales RiseThe company raised its full-year sales guidance while noting it has not yet assessed the potential impact of the latest tariff news.
Events & AwardsAug 08, 2025
GJEPC’s Jewellers for Hope Celebrates 10 Years of FundraisingThe organization has raised more than $1.3 million for charity since its inception.
TrendsAug 08, 2025
Piece of the Week: Rahaminov Diamonds’ Bezel BangleThe brand’s latest iteration of a bezel-set diamond bangle features clean lines and a timeless design for a new modern silhouette.
Brought to you by
Taking the Moment Head On: How Rio Grande Champions the Present & Future of Fine JewelryAs a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.
WatchesAug 07, 2025
Bulova’s New Collection Honors Tony BennettThe first watch in the series commemorates his participation in the Civil Rights movement, marching from Selma to Montgomery in 1965.
Weekly QuizAug 08, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Lab-GrownAug 07, 2025
Chatham Releases Catalog for Loose Lab-Grown GemstonesThe catalog contains a complete listing of all the loose gemstones in stock, as well as information about the properties of each stone.
TechnologyAug 07, 2025
Rembrandt Charms Debuts New Website, Bird CharmsThe company added a retailer dashboard to its site and three new birds to its charm collection, the cardinal, blue jay, and hummingbird.
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench JewelersThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.
Policies & IssuesAug 06, 2025
Tariff on India to Rise to 50%, Trump Says An additional 25 percent tariff has been added to the previously announced 25 percent.
MajorsAug 06, 2025
Claire’s Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy AgainThe jewelry and accessories retailer plans to close 18 stores as part of the proceedings.
IndependentsAug 06, 2025
Smith & Son Jewelers to Close 107-Year-Old Location Its Springfield, Massachusetts, store is set to close as owner Andrew Smith heads into retirement.
CollectionsAug 06, 2025
Zahn-Z Swims With Whales in ‘Beluga’ CollectionDesigner Hiba Husayni looked to the whale’s melon shaped-head, blowhole, and fluke for her new chunky gold offerings.
TrendsAug 06, 2025
Paola De Luca to Release Trendbook 2027+She will present the 23rd edition of the trend forecasting book at Vicenzaoro on Sept. 7.
CrimeAug 05, 2025
Report: Suspect Arrested in 1992 Murder of Miami JewelerOmar Roy, 72, was arrested in connection with the murder of jeweler Dionisio Carlos Valladares.
CollectionsAug 05, 2025
Mignon Faget Commemorates 20th Anniversary of Hurricane KatrinaThe New Orleans-based brand’s “Beyond Katrina” jewels honor the communities affected by the storm.
ColumnistsAug 05, 2025
The PR Adviser: Affiliate Marketing Is the Cost of CoverageLilian Raji explains why joining an affiliate network is essential for brands seeking placements in U.S. consumer publications.
Events & AwardsAug 05, 2025
JA Announces Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship WinnersThe organization has awarded a total of $42,000 through its scholarship programs this year.
Events & AwardsAug 04, 2025
Gem Awards, David Yurman Introduce $50K Grant for Emerging DesignersThe winner of the inaugural David Yurman Gem Awards Grant will be announced live at the 2026 Gem Awards gala.
TrendsAug 04, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: August’s Bright BaublesAs summer winds down, celebrate the sunny disposition of the month’s birthstones: peridot and spinel.
CrimeAug 04, 2025
‘The Watch King’ Assaulted, Robbed in QueensMoshe Haimoff, a social media personality and 47th Street retailer, was robbed of $559,000 worth of jewelry by men in construction outfits.
MajorsAug 04, 2025
Borsheims Welcomes New Assistant Facilities ManagerXavier Dibbrell brings more than a decade of experience to the role.
MajorsAug 01, 2025
Helzberg President Julie Yoakum Moves Over to Signet JewelersThe addition of Yoakum, who will lead Kay and Peoples, was one of three executive appointments Signet announced Thursday.
MajorsAug 01, 2025
Jewelers Mutual Names Mike Alexander as President The insurance company’s previous president and CEO, Scott Murphy, has split his role and will continue as CEO.
SourcingAug 01, 2025
Gemfields’ Auction Revenue Drops 50% in H1The nearly six-month pause of operations at its Kagem emerald mine earlier this year impacted the miner’s first-half results.
CollectionsAug 01, 2025
Piece of the Week: Hernsdorf’s ‘Tears of Aphrodite’ NecklaceThe necklace uses spinel drops to immortalize the moment Aphrodite’s tears mixed with her lover Adonis’ blood after he was fatally wounded.
SourcingJul 31, 2025
De Beers Records $189M First-Half Loss The diamond miner and marketer warned last week that it expected to be in the red after significantly cutting prices in Q2.
Events & AwardsJul 31, 2025
These Are the 2025 CASE Award WinnersJewelers of America’s 35th annual design contest recognized creativity, artistry, style, and excellence.
