Surveys

Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction

SurveysAug 31, 2023

Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction

A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.

Shopping bags
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high. 

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July. 

“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.  

“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”  

The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July. 

Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent. 

Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.  

The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.  

“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said. 

 Related stories will be right here … 

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88. 

Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.

Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.

The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July. 

Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.  

Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.  

Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent. 

For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month. 

“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said. 


The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances. 

In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.  

Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.  

The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month. 

Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.” 

Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.  

“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson. 

“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.” 

The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August. 

The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.  

Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July. 

“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.  

“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.” 

Lauren McLemoreis the associate editor, gemstones at National Jeweler, covering sourcing, pricing and other developments.

The Latest

Ella Klein Interns Jamie Dunton and Gabriella Botelho
Events & AwardsDec 20, 2024
Two Participants Complete Inaugural Ella Klein Internship

Jamie Dunton and Gabriella Botelho are the first graduates of the program, created by the WJA Foundation and Julius Klein Diamonds.

Retrouvai Green Sapphire and Diamond Heirloom Bezel Ring for Charity
CollectionsDec 20, 2024
Piece of the Week: Retrouvaí’s Ring for Charity

In the spirit of giving, Retrouvaí will donate $4,000 from the sale of this ring to the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank.

DeVries Jewelers
IndependentsDec 19, 2024
Michigan’s DeVries Jewelers Unveils New Location in Time for the Holidays

Co-owner Dan DeVries shared what it’s like moving into a space triple the size of its old store and how it feels to be a “real jeweler” now.

me_myself_and_I_1872x1052 .jpg
Brought to you by
De Beers Group Launches Holiday Campaign for Natural Diamonds

‘Forever Present’ campaign revives the iconic A Diamond is Forever tagline and celebrates the diamond dream.

State Property Gardens Collection Campaign
CollectionsDec 19, 2024
State Property Transforms Spain’s Generalife Gardens into Jewelry

Along with the latest “Gardens” collection, the brand has released limited-edition designs offering more indulgent pieces.

Weekly QuizDec 19, 2024
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Two people in a rowboat
CrimeDec 19, 2024
Alleged Jewelry Thieves Attempt Rowboat Escape

The man and woman are accused of stealing jewelry from a shipping container then trying to flee by paddling a small boat out into a bay.

2488-carat diamond found in Botswana
SourcingDec 19, 2024
The Second-Largest Diamond Ever Found Now Has a Name

The 2,488-carat diamond recovered from a mine in Botswana has been dubbed “Motswedi” while its 1,094-carat sibling is “Seriti.”

ja nj btyb.jpg
Brought to you by
Advocacy and Excellence: How Jewelers of America Is Committed to Elevating Our Industry

For over a century, Jewelers of America has been the voice of the industry and valuable resource to jewelers across the country.

Rough rubies
SourcingDec 19, 2024
Gemfields Reports Record Ruby Auction Results Despite Challenges at Source

The average price per carat hit a record high for the miner, which said it remains unaffected by the conflict in Mozambique.

alexandrite ring
AuctionsDec 18, 2024
Alexandrite Ring Sells for Record-Setting $1.9M at Sotheby’s

The nearly 17-carat stone made history for the color-change gem that, according to the auction house, is experiencing a “notable surge” in the market.

Tiffany & Co. pocket watch gifted to captain of the Carpathia
WatchesDec 18, 2024
Historic Titanic Pocket Watch Winds Its Way Back to Tiffany & Co.

More than a century after survivors gifted a Tiffany timepiece to the captain of the ship that rescued them, the jeweler has reclaimed it.

Picchiotti Spotlight Campaign Video Still
TechnologyDec 18, 2024
Picchiotti Utilizes AI in ‘Spotlight’ Video Campaign

The videos highlight how pieces from the “Xpandable” and “Reversible Xpandable” collections put the wearer in the spotlight.

Steve Feldman
IndependentsDec 18, 2024
Industry Veteran Steve Feldman Set to Retire

Feldman reflected on 45 years in the jewelry industry and clarified that it’s not a total retirement.

Chanel Quilted Stars Necklace
Events & AwardsDec 17, 2024
Chanel to Receive Gem Award for High Jewelry Excellence

The luxury brand is being honored for excellence in high jewelry design in its “Haute Joaillerie Sport” collection.

Frank Circelli
SourcingDec 17, 2024
Frank Circelli, Founder of Gem Shopping Network, Dies at 75

Circelli was a pioneer in the world of TV shopping who is remembered for his passion for gemstones and his big personality.

Blue diamond ring
AuctionsDec 17, 2024
Blue Diamond Fetches $8.8M at Christie’s

The nearly 6-carat stone headlined the recent jewelry auction, which also featured Mica Ertegun’s jewelry.

Stock image of a gavel, handcuffs, and books
CrimeDec 17, 2024
‘Black Bin Crew’ Robbers Get 14-16 Years in Prison

The three men, who got their nickname because they’d toss the jewelry they stole into black plastic bins, were arrested back in August.

Cover of the new book “The History of Diamond Engagement Rings: A True Romance”
TrendsDec 16, 2024
Marion Fasel’s New Book Delves Into the History of Engagement Rings

“The History of Diamond Engagement Rings: A True Romance” is a 128-page small-format book containing more than 165 images.

Rolex store on Rodeo Drive
WatchesDec 16, 2024
Take a Look Inside the New Rolex Boutique on Rodeo Drive

Gearys opened a 6,200-square-foot Rolex store with a design that pays homage to the brand’s connection to the ocean.

GCAL 8X pear and marquise-cut diamonds
GradingDec 16, 2024
GCAL By Sarine Expands 8X to 2 More Fancy Shapes

The diamond cut grade is now available for marquise- and pear-shaped diamonds.

Claudia Cividino, Sissy’s Log Cabin, Shri Govind Dholakia, Tanishq
SourcingDec 16, 2024
Diamonds Do Good Announces 2025 Award Recipients

DDG said the honorees’ business practices embody a commitment to positive social impact, industry innovation, and community empowerment.

Selena Gomez, Benny Blanco, Engagement Ring
TrendsDec 13, 2024
Selena Gomez Said ‘Forever Begins Now’ to Marquise Diamond Engagement Ring

Estimates on the size and value of the solitaire diamond, which is mounted on a diamond pavé-set yellow gold band, vary.

Martin Katz tanzanite drop earrings
TrendsDec 13, 2024
Piece of the Week: Martin Katz’s Tanzanite Drops

These half-moon tanzanite earrings totaling 25 carats are part of a special trunk show taking place this weekend in Dallas.

My Next Question webinar graphic
Recorded WebinarsDec 13, 2024
Watch: The Highs and Lows of 2024

The National Jeweler editors recap the top news, the best jewels, and their favorite stories of the year.

Tom Brady’s Rolex Daytona Paul Newman “John Player Special”
AuctionsDec 12, 2024
Tom Brady’s Watches Top $4M at Sotheby’s Auction

The highest-grossing lot of the sale was the retired QB’s Rolex Paul Newman Daytona “John Player Special.”

Grizzly emerald mining
SourcingDec 12, 2024
Grizzly Emerald Auction Garners $22.4M

Recent expansion initiatives at the Zambian emerald mine have shown strong production numbers, said Grizzly founder Abdoulaye Ndiaye.

Carrie Forman
MajorsDec 12, 2024
Mark Henry Appoints New Director of Sales

Carrie Forman joins the brand to guide it into the next phase of growth with major and independent retailers in the U.S. and abroad.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy