SurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction
A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.
The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July.
Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.
Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.
Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent.
For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said.
The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances.
In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.
Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.
The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month.
Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.”
Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.
“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson.
“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.”
The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August.
The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July.
“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.
“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.”
SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in June
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
Policies & IssuesJul 28, 2025
U.S.-EU Come to Agreement on Tariffs Announced Sunday, the deal will set the tax on goods imported into the United States from the European Union at 15 percent.
CollectionsJul 28, 2025
Nanis Brings a New Palette to ‘Ipanema’A new edition of the Italian brand’s “Ipanema” collection has debuted with gemstones that evoke Brazil’s breathtaking views.
MajorsJul 28, 2025
The 1916 Company Partners with ‘Shark Tank’ Star’s Watch Insurance PlatformThe retailer will refer its customers to WonderCare, founded by venture capitalist and watch collector Kevin O’Leary.
Brought to you by
Taking the Moment Head On: How Rio Grande Champions the Present & Future of Fine JewelryAs a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.
IndependentsJul 28, 2025
Sissy’s Log Cabin to Open Flagship in Arkansas The jeweler’s largest store yet is set to open in Little Rock next fall.
Weekly QuizJul 25, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsJul 25, 2025
Piece of the Week: Jemma Wynne’s ‘Forme’ NecklaceAnne Hathaway was seen wearing the toggle necklace three times while filming scenes for “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”
Events & AwardsJul 25, 2025
Pre-Registration Open for September Hong Kong ShowJewellery & Gem World Hong Kong is scheduled for Sept. 15 to 21, and buyer pre-registration will be available until Sept. 7.
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench JewelersThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.
FinancialsJul 25, 2025
LVMH Sales Slip in H1 Amid ‘Prevailing Uncertainties’Renovations at Tiffany & Co. stores ate into profits in the company’s watch and jewelry division.
Events & AwardsJul 24, 2025
2 Retailers to Receive 2026 Gem Award for Lifetime AchievementMark and Candy Udell of London Jewelers will receive the honor at the 24th annual Gem Awards next March.
SourcingJul 24, 2025
De Beers Sees Diamond Production Sink 36% in Q2 While struggles continue at the mining and trading end of the pipeline, consumer demand for diamond jewelry is holding steady.
CollectionsJul 24, 2025
Francesca Villa Adds Dimension to Her Intaglio CharactersThe “Fantasia” jewelry collection turns the intaglio animals from her “Close Encounters” collection into 3D characters.
WatchesJul 24, 2025
Breitling Drops Super Bowl Watch Honoring the Philadelphia Eagles The special Classic Avi Chronograph 42 with an Eagles-green dial is limited to 59 pieces, a nod to the Super Bowl Philadelphia just won.
CrimeJul 23, 2025
JSA Warns of Violent String of Smash-and-Grabs in California JSA has received reports of mobs swarming jewelry stores, driving cars into the storefront or smashing through the windows.
CollectionsJul 23, 2025
Silvia Furmanovich’s ‘Kashmir’ Collection Is a Tribute to Northern IndiaThe “Kashmir” collection features centuries-old craft techniques made in collaboration with the region’s master papier-mâché artisans.
IndependentsJul 23, 2025
Montreal’s Ecksand Eyes Move to SoHoCreative Director Erica Bianchini shared why the jeweler is looking to expand into the U.S. and how it’s putting Canadian craftsmanship on the map.
IndependentsJul 23, 2025
IJO Raises Nearly $37K for LA Fire Relief Two Los Angeles Fire Department stations plan to use the donations to upgrade their equipment and tools.
CollectionsJul 22, 2025
Jewelry With a Rock ‘n’ Roll Aesthetic Heads to Sotheby’s LondonNext week, the auction house will kick off a selling exhibition of jewelry by British artist Hannah Martin and Coldplay’s Guy Berryman.
SourcingJul 22, 2025
Antwerp Diamond Heist Documentary Coming to Netflix“Stolen: Heist of the Century” is based on “Flawless,” the book about the middle-of-the-night theft, and will debut on Netflix in August.
ColumnistsJul 22, 2025
The Gifting Gap: How to Market Jewelry Beyond the HolidaysEmmanuel Raheb shares the top five gifting moments outside of major holidays that jewelers should build marketing campaigns around.
Events & AwardsJul 22, 2025
NY Now’s Summer Market Returns in AugustThe wholesale trade show’s Luxury Lifestyle section will showcase established and emerging jewelry designers.
MajorsJul 21, 2025
Rio Grande Expands Personalization OfferingsAs demand for custom jewelry grows, the company is expanding its services to support retailers.
Events & AwardsJul 21, 2025
NAJA’s 2025 ‘Ace It’ Conference To Go VirtualThe mid-year conference for jewelry and watch appraisers is slated for Aug. 9 to 10 on Zoom.
TrendsJul 21, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Graduated With Honors Graduated stones make for elevated tennis-style pieces and dramatic statement necklaces.
Events & AwardsJul 21, 2025
Gem Awards Now Accepting Nominations for 2026Nominations in the categories of Jewelry Design, Media Excellence, and Retail Innovation will be accepted through July 30.
MajorsJul 18, 2025
Lewis Heyman on Sourcing Gemstones, Post-Retirement PlansHe retired last month after 28 years traveling the world to source the very best gemstones for his family’s jewelry business, Oscar Heyman.
TrendsJul 18, 2025
Piece of the Week: CCWW Designs’ Shell Charm NecklaceThe charm necklace features six nautical charms of shells and coral that founder Christina Puchi collected on Florida’s beaches.
