Surveys

Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction

SurveysAug 31, 2023

Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction

A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.

Shopping bags
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high. 

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July. 

“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.  

“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”  

The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July. 

Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent. 

Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.  

The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.  

“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said. 

 Related stories will be right here … 

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88. 

Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.

Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.

The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July. 

Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.  

Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.  

Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent. 

For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month. 

“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said. 


The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances. 

In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.  

Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.  

The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month. 

Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.” 

Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.  

“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson. 

“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.” 

The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August. 

The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.  

Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July. 

“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.  

“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.” 

Lauren McLemoreis the associate editor, gemstones at National Jeweler, covering sourcing, pricing and other developments.

The Latest

GIA iD100® Technology
Supplier BulletinJul 03, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your Business

Sponsored by the Gemological Institute of America

Madison Keys in Brilliant Earth campaign
MajorsJul 03, 2025
Brilliant Earth Names Tennis Star Madison Keys as Its New Ambassador

The 2025 Australian Open champion is the jewelry brand’s first athlete ambassador.

Muse Nordstrom shop-in-shop
MajorsJul 03, 2025
Muse Sets Up Shop in Nordstrom’s New Jewelry Hall

The West Village jewelry boutique’s new shop-in-shop is the cornerstone of Nordstrom’s revamped jewelry hall.

an instructor and a student in a bench jewelry classroom
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench Jewelers

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.

Shree Ramkrishna Exports
SourcingJul 03, 2025
SRK Announces Its Natural Diamonds Are Now Carbon-Negative

This past year, the manufacturer said it recorded below-zero emissions per carat of natural diamond.

Weekly QuizJul 02, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Yeprem Golden Strada Statement Necklace
CollectionsJul 03, 2025
Piece of the Week: A Firework of Diamonds From Yeprem

The brand’s “Golden Strada” statement necklace features round, marquise, and pear diamonds that sparkle like Fourth of July fireworks.

Stock image of police cars with their lights on
CrimeJul 03, 2025
JSA Shares Holiday Weekend Security Tips Amid Spike in Burglaries

JSA’s Scott Guginsky provided a list of nine security measures jewelers should observe while locking up for the long weekend.

Jewelers of America logo with meetup, State of the Majors, giveaway and massages
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America is Headed to Las Vegas for JCK 2025

The countdown is on for the JCK Las Vegas Show and JA is pulling out all the stops.

Exterior and entryway of Boucheron’s Los Angeles Flagship
MajorsJul 02, 2025
Boucheron Looks to LA for First West Coast Flagship

Located on Rodeo Drive, the store’s design was inspired by Hollywood and Los Angeles culture.

Exterior of Marco Bicego Milan Flagship
MajorsJul 02, 2025
Marco Bicego Opens Milan Flagship

The new location continues the brand’s celebration of its 25th anniversary.

Chrono24 Time Is Our Thing campaign image
WatchesJul 02, 2025
Chrono24 Revamps Brand, Launches New Campaign

The online watch marketplace’s “Time Is Our Thing” campaign highlights the importance of time.

Bernadette Mack
SourcingJul 02, 2025
Bernadette Mack Joins Gem Legacy as Executive Director

She will oversee strategic planning, fundraising, industry partnerships, and the launch of the Gem Legacy Campus in Tanzania.

Counterfeit Pandora jewelry in bags and boxes
CrimeJul 02, 2025
Pandora, Amazon Partner to Uncover Counterfeit Jewelry Network

Working with Amazon’s Counterfeit Crimes Unit and law enforcement, Pandora helped to shut down a large-scale counterfeit network in China.

Cast Issa Rae
MajorsJul 01, 2025
Cast Closes Business, Plans for Relaunch

The jewelry company has closed its three California brick-and-mortar stores, as well as its online shop, for now.

Eve Goldberg, Matthew Denatale, Willie Lopez, Benjamin Goldberg
Events & AwardsJul 01, 2025
William Goldberg Diamonds, FIT Partner for Apprenticeship Program

The company is providing the opportunity for an FIT student to work alongside master diamond cutter Willie Lopez in its workshop.

Elie Hannoush
IndependentsJul 01, 2025
Elie Hannoush, Founder of Hannoush Jewelers, Dies at 73

He is remembered for his successful entrepreneurship, generosity, and dedication to his family.

Claire’s store
MajorsJul 01, 2025
Claire’s Is Looking for a Buyer, Report Says

The jewelry store chain has reportedly been struggling with costs related to tariffs as well as tough retail competition.

Mindi Mond Spike Earrings
TrendsJul 01, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Red Hot Rubies

Welcome warm summer days with red hot rubies perfectly chosen as July’s birthstone.

The Story of Everything Campaign, Toadstool Mushroom and Cosmic Egg
CollectionsJun 30, 2025
State Property’s New Jewelry Tells ‘The Story of Everything’

Co-founders Afzal Imram and Lin Ruiyin brought their son’s story of a cosmic egg, toadstool, and railroad to life in their new collection.

Smart Age Solutions CEO Emmanuel Raheb
ColumnistsJun 30, 2025
The Smart Lab: Why Q3 Is the Secret Weapon For Holiday Jewelry Sales

The best time to prepare for the holiday season is right now, according to columnist Emmanuel Raheb.

Morgan Keefe
Events & AwardsJun 30, 2025
AGA Names Recipient of 2025 Gemological Education Scholarship

This year’s winner is Morgan Keefe, who is currently studying at GIA to be a gemologist.

The Jewelry Book
IndependentsJun 30, 2025
Melanie Grant’s New Book Explores 200 Years of Jewelry

“The Jewelry Book” comes out this September.

Gemist
TechnologyJun 27, 2025
Gemist Raises $6M in Funding to Scale Jewelry Tech Platform

The company is focused on modernizing the custom jewelry buying experience with e-commerce tools like product visualization and 3D styling.

Jeff Preolo, David Stout, Levi Higgs, David Benavides
IndependentsJun 27, 2025
David Webb Announces New Hires, Promotions

Following its recent acquisition, the storied brand has updated its leadership team and regional managers.

Blake Graham and Jessica Kohoutek
Events & AwardsJun 27, 2025
AGS, GIA Announce Beatrice Shipley Scholarship Winner

AGS also named the recipient of its “Women in Leadership” scholarship.

Buddha Mama Monstera Ring
CollectionsJun 27, 2025
Piece of the Week: Buddha Mama’s ‘Monstera’ Wrap Ring

The 20-karat yellow gold and diamond wrap ring is modeled after the Monstera plants in the garden of the brand’s Miami villa.

Cashier handing Rocksbox bag to customer
MajorsJun 26, 2025
Why Rocksbox Is Opening Stores As Signet Jewelers Downsizes

Rocksbox President Allison Vigil shared the retailer’s expansion plans, and her thoughts on opening stores in malls.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy