SurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction
A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.
The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July.
Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.
Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.
Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent.
For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said.
The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances.
In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.
Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.
The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month.
Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.”
Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.
“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson.
“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.”
The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August.
The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July.
“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.
“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.”
SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in June
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsDec 12, 2025
13.54-Carat Paraíba Tourmaline Sets Records at Christie’sSet in a Tiffany & Co. necklace, it sold for $4.2 million, the highest price and price per carat paid for a Paraíba tourmaline at auction.
MajorsDec 12, 2025
David Webb Reveals Ice-Cold Holiday Window DisplayThe jeweler’s “Deep Freeze” display showcases its iconic jewelry designs frozen in a vintage icebox.
CollectionsDec 12, 2025
Piece of the Week: Oscar Heyman’s Sphene RingTake luxury gifting to new heights this holiday season with the jeweler’s showstopping 12-carat sphene ring.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
Events & AwardsDec 12, 2025
IGI Jewelry Design Contest Now Accepting SubmissionsThis year's theme is “Unveiling the Depths of the Ocean.”
Weekly QuizDec 11, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TrendsDec 11, 2025
Pinterest 2026 Trend Report: Brooches, Bold Gold, Cool BlueIn its annual report, Pinterest noted an increase in searches for brooches, heirloom jewelry, and ‘80s luxury.
GradingDec 11, 2025
GIA to Offer Origin Determination for 3 More GemstonesStarting Jan. 1, customers can request the service for opal, peridot, and demantoid garnet.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
IndependentsDec 11, 2025
Look Inside Day’s Jewelers’ Ninth StoreThe 111-year-old retailer celebrated the opening of its new location in Salem, New Hampshire, which is its third store in the state.
MajorsDec 11, 2025
Americas Gold Releases New Gold Chain CatalogThe new catalog features its most popular chains as well as new styles.
AuctionsDec 10, 2025
Francis Ford Coppola’s Watch Sells for $10.8MThe filmmaker’s personal F.P. Journe “FFC” prototype was the star of Phillips’ recent record-setting watch auction in New York.
WatchesDec 10, 2025
There’s A New Rolex Boutique in MiamiThe new location in the Design District pays homage to Miami’s Art Deco heritage and its connection to the ocean.
SourcingDec 10, 2025
NAJA Announces Details for 2026 ‘Ace It’ Winter Conference“Longtime favorite” presenters, as well as first-time speakers, will lead talks and workshops at the annual event in Tucson next year.
Events & AwardsDec 10, 2025
MJSA Names 2025 Responsible Design Challenge WinnerSilas Smith of Meridian Metalworks won the challenge with his pendant that blends Australian and American landscapes.
AuctionsDec 09, 2025
‘Desert Rose’ Diamond Sells for $8.8M in Abu DhabiThe sale of the 31.68-carat, sunset-hued stone was part of Sotheby’s first series of events and auctions in Abu Dhabi.
ColumnistsDec 09, 2025
Holiday Sales Happen in December, Most Decisions Don’tMost customers who walk into your store this month have made up their minds. Your job is to validate their choice, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
TrendsDec 09, 2025
‘Once Upon a Time,’ Guzema Debuted Its Holiday CollectionThe collection features characters and motifs from Ukrainian folklore, including an enchanted mirror and a magic egg.
TechnologyDec 09, 2025
Gemvision Releases Updated MatrixGoldMatrixGold 3.11, the newest version of the jewelry design program, offers more flexibility, precision, and creative control.
Events & AwardsDec 09, 2025
MJSA Showcase Pavilion Returning to JA New York The pavilion will be part of the 2026 JA New York Spring show, scheduled for March 15 to 17.
MajorsDec 08, 2025
Juell Kadet, a ‘Lifelong Pillar’ of Rogers & Hollands, Dies at 96Kadet, a 1994 National Jeweler Retailer Hall of Fame inductee, helped grow the family-owned retailer in the Chicago area and beyond.
TechnologyDec 08, 2025
You’ve Heard of Smart Watches and Rings; Meet Smart EarringsBilled as the world’s smallest wearable, Lumia Health’s new smart earrings have a health tracker subtly embedded in the back.
TrendsDec 08, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Celebrating December’s BirthstonesDon’t let those with December birthdays feel blue. Help them celebrate their month with blue zircon, turquoise, and tanzanite.
CollectionsDec 05, 2025
Piece of the Week: Robinson Pelham’s ‘Tsar Star’ EarringsThe new pink sapphire version of the piece dances with its wearer in the brand’s “Icons After Dark” holiday campaign.
TrendsDec 05, 2025
Pantone’s Color of the Year for 2026 Is … WhiteA choice that’s generated a lot of commentary, Pantone says “Cloud Dancer” marks a fresh start and encourages relaxation and creativity.
MajorsDec 05, 2025
Stuller Releases ‘Wrapped in Wonder’ CampaignThe manufacturer’s holiday campaign features a gift guide filled with trending designs and jewelry that can be personalized.
CrimeDec 04, 2025
Man Arrested After Allegedly Swallowing Fabergé Egg PendantThe man was charged with theft, accused of ingesting the necklace while in a jewelry store in Auckland, New Zealand.
IndependentsDec 04, 2025
Step Inside JR Dunn Jewelers’ Giant New Store The Florida independent expanded its store from 8,000 to 14,000 square feet, fulfilling the vision of its late co-founder, Jim Dunn.
