SurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction
A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.
The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July.
Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.
Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.
Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent.
For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances.
In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.
Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.
The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month.
Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.”
Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.
“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson.
“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.”
The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August.
The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July.
“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.
“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.”
SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in June
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
TechnologyApr 24, 2026
TwentyFour’s Digital-Age Locket Is a Virtual VaultThe “Vault” charm, our Piece of the Week, expands on the memories that can be stored in a locket by connecting to your phone.
Events & AwardsApr 24, 2026
Hamptons Jewelry Show to Return in JulyThe open-to-the-public luxury jewelry and timepiece show, in its second year, is slated for July 23-26.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Meet the Real Moms of Day’s JewelersThe jeweler’s Mother’s Day campaign highlights the women who work there—mothers, grandmothers, women who want to be mothers, and dog moms.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
Supplier BulletinApr 23, 2026
JM® Shipping Solution: Smarter Shipping for High-Value GoodsSponsored by Jewelers Mutual
Weekly QuizApr 23, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Lab-GrownApr 23, 2026
Charles & Colvard May Sell Assets for $1.5MThe proposed agreement follows the moissanite maker’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filing last month.
AuctionsApr 23, 2026
John Jacob Astor IV’s Titanic Pocket Watch Fetches $1MThe Patek Philippe for Tiffany & Co. timepiece Astor brought aboard the ill-fated ship sold for double its estimate at a Freeman’s auction.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
CollectionsApr 23, 2026
Adam Neeley’s High Jewelry Collection Steps Into Salvador Dalí’s GardenThe “Dalí’s Garden” collection was inspired by a surreal dream Neeley had after cooking a recipe from Salvador Dalí’s 1973 cookbook.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Windsor Jewelers Names New Buying DirectorNatalie Feanny has been appointed to the role.
CrimeApr 22, 2026
New Mexico Couple Pleads Guilty to Selling Fake Native American JewelryThe pair falsely claimed their jewelry was made by Navajo artists, but it was imported from Vietnam.
AuctionsApr 22, 2026
Roberta Flack’s Jewelry Is Going Up for AuctionJulien’s Auctions is selling the musician’s fine and fashion jewelry alongside her clothing, gold records, and other memorabilia.
CollectionsApr 22, 2026
British Museum Curator Pens Book on ‘The Tudor Heart’Rachel King’s book dives into the history of the pendant believed to have belonged to Henry VIII and his first wife, Katherine of Aragon.
Events & AwardsApr 22, 2026
Here’s What Sy Kessler Has on Tap for Las Vegas The company will have deals on precious metals testers as well as the latest in lab-grown diamond detection technology and security.
WatchesApr 21, 2026
Coco Chanel Enters the Game with New Watch CollectionGabrielle “Coco” Chanel is a character in the “Coco Game” collection of watches and the queen in its first haute horlogerie chessboard.
IndependentsApr 21, 2026
Meet Jewelers of America’s 2026 ‘20 Under 40’ ClassThe annual list honors rising professionals on the retail and supply sides of the jewelry industry.
CrimeApr 21, 2026
Customs Nabs 1,500 Pieces of Counterfeit Jewelry Bound for NYCSeized in Kentucky, the packages include fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., Chanel, and Fendi jewelry.
CrimeApr 20, 2026
Queens Man Convicted in Bludgeoning Death of Pawn Shop OwnerRodolfo Lopez-Portillo faces 25 years to life in prison after being found guilty in the March 2022 beating death of Arasb Shoughi.
TrendsApr 20, 2026
Beth Bernstein, Sonia Esther Soltani Pen New Jewelry Book“Jewelry Creators: Dynamic Duos and Generational Gems” highlights the relationships among 22 influential designers, brands, and gem dealers.
Events & AwardsApr 20, 2026
Atlanta Jewelry Show’s Spring Event Is Hitting the RoadThe AJS Spring 2027 show will be held in Savannah, Georgia, with future shows taking place in other Southeast cities.
MajorsApr 20, 2026
Kendra Scott Names New CFO, Chief Business OfficerThe jewelry retailer plans to open 20 new stores this year and expand into new product categories.
TrendsApr 17, 2026
New (Groundbreaking) Floral Jewelry for Spring 2026Flower motifs are the jewelry trend blooming amongst the new collections that debuted this spring.
MajorsApr 17, 2026
QVC Group Files for Chapter 11 BankruptcyThe retailer reported an 8 percent decline in annual sales as it struggles under the weight of billions of dollars of debt.
CollectionsApr 17, 2026
Edina Kiss’ Earrings Are the Devil on Your ShoulderThe “Devil” drop earrings, our Piece of the Week, are part of designer Edina Kiss’ new namesake jewelry line that she will show at Couture.
CrimeApr 17, 2026
FBI Issues Warning to Refineries, Retailers Due to High Price of GoldThe alert states that burglary crews are targeting jewelry businesses and details how jewelers and refineries can protect themselves.
WatchesApr 16, 2026
Cartier Brings Back the RoadsterThe “watchmaker of shapes” debuted the reworked version of the vintage sports car-inspired timepiece at Watches & Wonders.
IndependentsApr 16, 2026
Edge Retail Academy Updates Leadership TeamAs demand for jewelry retail coaching grows, the company has established a dedicated business coaching leadership team.
