SurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction
A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.
The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July.
Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.
Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.
Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent.
For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said.
The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances.
In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.
Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.
The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month.
Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.”
Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.
“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson.
“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.”
The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August.
The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July.
“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.
“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.”
SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in June
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsJul 26, 2024
Diamonds Direct Opens Store in AtlantaIt’s the Signet-owned banner’s first location in Georgia.
TrendsJul 26, 2024
Piece of the Week: Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Double Loop’ EarringsCommemorate “brat summer” with these green hoops.
EditorsJul 26, 2024
Out & About: A Dispatch from the Nation’s Smallest StateEditor-in-Chief Michelle Graff returns from Rhode Island with thoughts about in-store shopping and a trends report.
Brought to you by
The End of an Era? Lab-Grown Diamonds' Journey Towards Price StabilityAs the demand for lab-grown diamond jewelry may still be increasing, the most notable change we are likely to see is price stabilization.
Supplier BulletinJul 25, 2024
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionSponsored by Gemological Institute of America
Weekly QuizJul 25, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TechnologyJul 25, 2024
Amazon, BBB Sue Website Allegedly Peddling Fake Reviews They claim ReviewServiceUSA.com was selling both positive and negative reviews of products and businesses.
SourcingJul 25, 2024
De Beers’ H1 Revenue Falls 21% in ‘Weak’ MarketLab-grown diamond sales in the United States and ongoing economic challenges in China are impacting natural diamond demand.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionGIA®’s most advanced microscope has new features to optimize greater precision and comfort.
IndependentsJul 25, 2024
Store Designer Ruth Mellergaard DiesA longtime member of IJO, she’s remembered for her passion for design, learning, and environmentalism.
FinancialsJul 25, 2024
Boucheron, Pomellato Post Double-Digit Growth in Q2 The gains come amid a tough time for parent company Kering, which saw sales slide 11 percent in the first half of the year.
MajorsJul 25, 2024
Shane Co. Partners With Kids In Need Foundation to Donate 7,200 BackpacksThe fine jewelry retailer filled backpacks with back-to-school essentials for students in 13 states.
FinancialsJul 24, 2024
LVMH’s First-Half Jewelry, Watch Sales Dip 5%Tiffany & Co. is focusing on its “iconic” collections while the company has made changes at the top at TAG Heuer and Hublot.
MajorsJul 24, 2024
See Chaumet’s Paris Olympic Medals Inspired by its High JewelryThe Parisian brand is the first jewelry company in the history of the Olympic and Paralympic Games to design the medals.
MajorsJul 24, 2024
Jewelers Mutual Acquires Pawnbroker Insurance ProviderUnion Life & Casualty will join JM Insurance Agency Partners, expanding the provider’s pawnbroker coverage.
MajorsJul 24, 2024
Ben Bridge Announces 2024 Lonia Tate Scholarship WinnerLos Angeles-based Bradlei Smith was selected for this year’s award.
ColumnistsJul 23, 2024
Peter Smith: The Case for Optimism in Sales In his latest column, Smith shares multiple reasons why people who look at the glass as being hall full often make better salespeople.
SourcingJul 23, 2024
De Beers’ Production Drops 15% in Q2The company also reported the $150 million sale of an iron ore royalty right, part of its ongoing effort to divest “non-core” assets.
IndependentsJul 23, 2024
Long’s Jewelers Is Giving Away a Luxury Cape Cod VacationThe giveaway is part of the New England jeweler’s summer bridal event.
CollectionsJul 23, 2024
Guzema Debuts ‘Flower Power’ CampaignThe ad features three celebrity florists creating floral sculptures while wearing jewelry by Guzema.
Policies & IssuesJul 23, 2024
Diamonds Do Good Announces Its 2024 Entrepreneurship Grant WinnersThe grant provided a total of $100,000 to support 13 entrepreneurs from diamond communities in Africa and India.
CrimeJul 22, 2024
Florida Jeweler Shot, Killed Following Argument With CustomerGhazi Michel Osta, or “Gus,” was killed Friday by an 83-year-old man said to be a frequent customer at his store, Volusia Gold & Diamond.
Policies & IssuesJul 22, 2024
JVC’s Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez Joins RJCThe organization also announced Effie Marinos as its new specialist advisor for technical standards, as well as four other appointments.
SourcingJul 22, 2024
AWDC Names Karen Rentmeesters as CEORentmeesters has served as interim CEO since April following former CEO Ari Epstein’s resignation.
IndependentsJul 19, 2024
Longtime D.C. Jeweler Brian Mann Dies at 70Mann, whose family’s jewelry store was located inside the Pentagon, is remembered for being a thoughtful champion of the industry.
IndependentsJul 19, 2024
The 1916 Company Opens New Tudor BoutiqueThe 500-square-foot boutique is located in Denver’s Cherry Creek Shopping Center.
CollectionsJul 19, 2024
Piece of the Week: Messika’s ‘So Move Max’ NecklaceDance all night long with the “So Move Max” set’s necklace.
WatchesJul 18, 2024
TAG Heuer, Hublot Will Have New CEOs Luxury giant LVMH is reshuffling the leadership in its watches division.
