SurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End SurveysAug 31, 2023
Conference Board Reiterates Recession Prediction
A cooling labor market and high interest rates are taking a toll on consumer confidence in the U.S.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in July.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reversing back-to-back increases in June and July, and concerns of a pending recession remain high.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 in August from a downwardly revised 114 in July.
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
The Present Situation Index, which measurers consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 144.8 in August from 153 in July.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in August, with 17 percent of consumers saying current business conditions were “bad,” up from 16 percent in July. Consumers who reported feeling like current business conditions were “good” remained unchanged at 21 percent.
Respondents’ current view of the labor market also seems to be less positive.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were “hard to get” rose to 14 percent in August from 11 percent in July, and those who felt jobs were “plentiful” dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent.
“Hard data confirms that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward,” Peterson said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped in August to about 80 —the level associated with a recession within the next year—from July’s sharp uptick to 88.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
Though consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next year hit the lowest level recorded thus far in 2023, Peterson said the return to an expectations threshold of 80 reflects less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.
The Conference Board said it still anticipates a recession before the end of the year, echoing what it said last month when it reported consumer confidence figures for July.
Consumers were less optimistic in all aspects of short-term outlook.
Regarding short-term business conditions outlook, 16 percent expect conditions to improve, down from 17 percent in July. Respondents that expect business conditions to worsen rose from 15 percent to 17 percent.
Eighteen percent of consumers anticipate fewer jobs will be available, up from 16 percent in July. The number of respondents expecting more jobs to be available remained virtually unchanged at 17 percent.
For short-term income expectations, consumers expecting their income to increase dropped to 17 percent from 18 percent in July, while respondents expecting their income to decrease increased to 12 percent from 10 percent last month.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” Peterson said.
The Conference Board recently added questions regarding consumers’ feeling about family finances.
In July, the Conference Board said respondents’ answers reflected “still healthy” family finances.
Consumers who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. Respondents who described their family financial situation as “bad,” in July was down to 18 percent from 19 percent in June.
The percentage of respondents in July who expected their family finances to improve dropped to 31 percent from 32 percent in June while those who expected them to worsen rose to 14 percent from 13 percent the previous month.
Peterson said respondents’ upbeat outlook on current family finances in July could have been reflective of “softening inflation and continued income support from employment.”
Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation was less positive in August.
“Write-in responses showed consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” said Peterson.
“Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Also, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up.”
The Conference Board said the measure of expected family financial situation in six months’ time, which faltered in July, softened further in August.
The board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
Consumers who felt recession was “somewhat” or “very likely” dropped again in August but remained high at 69 percent; it was 70 percent in June and 71 percent in July.
“These soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans,” said Peterson. “On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances continued to trend upward but plans to buy homes—more in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward.
“The dip in overall confidence notwithstanding, consumer plans to go on vacation, especially abroad, leapt upward in the month and slightly exceeded August 2022 readings, suggesting a continued penchant for spending on services.”
SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in June
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
NYC Jewelry Week 2025: 12 Must-See EventsWith more than 140 activations taking place in New York City now through Nov. 23, these 12 events are can’t-miss moments.
MajorsNov 18, 2025
Lugano Diamonds Files for Bankruptcy, Looking for BuyerThe Chapter 11 filing follows the resignation of CEO Moti Ferder, who stepped down after an investigation into the company’s finances.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
A Giant, Bejeweled Moldy Berry Is on Display in LAThe artwork is part of an exhibition featuring works by Kathleen Ryan, an artist known for her gemstone-studded rotting fruit sculptures.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
SourcingNov 18, 2025
Another Diamond Company CEO Steps DownMark Wall, president and CEO of Canadian mining company Mountain Province Diamonds, will vacate his position next month.
Weekly QuizNov 13, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeNov 17, 2025
Police Searching for 2 Suspects in Murder of Father, Son Jewelers Faustino Alamo Dominguez and his son, 25-year-old Luis Angel Alamo, were gunned down following an armed robbery at their jewelry store.
GradingNov 17, 2025
IGI Announces New President of North AmericaTiffany & Co. veteran Jeffrey Bennett has stepped into the role.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
MajorsNov 17, 2025
Look Inside Robbins Brothers Fine Jewelers’ New Pasadena FlagshipThe showroom is located in a historic 1920s building in the Playhouse District.
Policies & IssuesNov 14, 2025
U.S., Switzerland Reach Deal That Drops Tariff to 15%The Swiss government announced the deal, which cuts the tax on Swiss imports by more than half, on social media Friday morning.
AuctionsNov 14, 2025
Napoleon’s Diamond Brooch Blows Away Auction Estimates A buyer paid $4.4 million for the piece, which Napoleon wore on his hat for special occasions and left behind when he fled Waterloo.
FinancialsNov 14, 2025
Richemont’s Q2 Jewelry Sales Up 12%Plus, how tariffs and the rising price of gold are affecting its watch and jewelry brands.
CollectionsNov 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Silvia Furmanovich’s ‘Butterflies in Flight’ Jewelry BoxFurmanovich designed the box to hold Mellerio’s “Color Queen,” a high jewelry collection consisting of 10 rings.
Events & AwardsNov 14, 2025
JCK Names New Event DirectorJennifer Hopf, who has been with JCK since 2022, will lead the execution of the long-running jewelry trade show.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
127-Year-Old New Orleans Jeweler to CloseAdler’s Jewelry is set to close its two stores as 82-year-old owner Coleman E. Adler II retires.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
Green Lake Jewelry Works to Move to New Seattle StudioFounder Jim Tuttle shared how a dedication to craftsmanship and meaningful custom jewelry fueled the retailer’s double-digit growth.
MajorsNov 13, 2025
Vahan Jewelry Founder Leon ‘Sacha’ Der Calousdian Dies at 85The third-generation jeweler is remembered as a passionate creative with a love of art, traveling and sailboat racing.
CrimeNov 12, 2025
Father, Son Jewelers in Chicago Victims in Double Homicide JSA and Cook County Crime Stoppers are both offering rewards for information leading to the arrest of the suspect or suspects involved.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
‘Mellon Blue’ Diamond Sells for $7M Less Than It Did a Decade AgoA buyer paid $25.6 million for the diamond at Christie’s on Tuesday. In 2014, Sotheby’s sold the same stone for $32.6 million.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
Historic Rolex Oyster Fetches $1.7M at Sotheby’sMercedes Gleitze famously wore the watch in her 1927 swim across the English Channel, a pivotal credibility moment for the watchmaker.
GradingNov 12, 2025
It’s Time: GIA’s Express Holiday Service Is Back GIA is offering next-day services for natural, colorless diamonds submitted to its labs in New York and Carlsbad.
MajorsNov 10, 2025
Jewelers Focus on Love, Joy In 2025 Holiday Campaigns Tiffany & Co., David Yurman, and Pandora have launched holiday campaigns depicting their jewelry as symbols of affection and happiness.
AuctionsNov 10, 2025
300+ Colored Diamonds Up for Auction at Christie’sLate collector Eddy Elzas assembled “The Rainbow Collection,” which is offered as a single lot and estimated to fetch up to $3 million.
EditorsNov 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: An MVP’s Sapphire Tennis Necklace At the 2025 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto sported a custom necklace made by California retailer Happy Jewelers.
IndependentsNov 07, 2025
Foundrae’s New Palm Beach Location Is a ‘Golden Solarium’The brand’s seventh location combines Foundrae’s symbolic vocabulary with motifs from Florida’s natural surroundings.
FinancialsNov 07, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s H1 Sales Up 8%The retailer also shared an update on the impact of tariffs on watch customers.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
Pink Tourmaline Bracelet, Emerald Suite Take Top Spectrum Honors Pink and purple stones were popular in the AGTA’s design competition this year, as were cameos and ocean themes.
