SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsFeb 04, 2026
January Jewelry Sales: More Dollars Spent, Fewer Units Sold Sherry Smith unpacks independent retailers’ January performance and gives tips for navigating the slow-growth year ahead.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
What Designers Should Know About Saks Global’s BankruptcyFrom how to get an invoice paid to getting merchandise returned, JVC’s Sara Yood answers some complex questions.
TrendsFeb 04, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: February Birthstone BlissAmethyst, the birthstone for February, is a gemstone to watch this year with its rich purple hue and affordable price point.
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench JewelersLaunched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
Marco Bicego Names New Global Marketing DirectorThe Italian jewelry company appointed Matteo Cuelli to the newly created role.
Weekly QuizJan 29, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
Frederick Goldman Updates Leadership TeamThe manufacturer said the changes are designed to improve speed, reliability, innovation, and service.
Policies & IssuesFeb 03, 2026
Tariff Relief on Horizon for India as Trump, Modi Make DealPresident Trump said he has reached a trade deal with India, which, when made official, will bring relief to the country’s diamond industry.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
CollectionsFeb 03, 2026
Jade Trau Releases New Charms, Introduces RondellesThe designer’s latest collection takes inspiration from her classic designs, reimagining the motifs in new forms.
WatchesFeb 03, 2026
Casio America Calls Jersey City HomeThe watchmaker moved its U.S. headquarters to a space it said fosters creativity and forward-thinking solutions in Jersey City, New Jersey.
SourcingFeb 03, 2026
Nivoda Reveals Upgraded Gemstone MarketplaceThe company also announced a new partnership with GemGuide and the pending launch of an education-focused membership program.
GradingFeb 02, 2026
IGI to Acquire American Gemological Laboratories IGI is buying the colored gemstone grading laboratory through IGI USA, and AGL will continue to operate as its own brand.
CrimeFeb 02, 2026
Ylang 23’s Dallas Store BurglarizedThe Texas jeweler said its team is “incredibly resilient” and thanked its community for showing support.
EditorsFeb 02, 2026
Stars Choose Chokers, Elongated Earrings at 2026 GrammysFrom cool-toned metal to ring stacks, Associate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights the jewelry trends she spotted at the Grammy Awards.
CollectionsFeb 02, 2026
2026 Winter Olympic Medal Design Symbolizes UnityThe medals feature a split-texture design highlighting the fact that the 2026 Olympics are taking place in two different cities.
CollectionsJan 30, 2026
Follow the Beat With Etiq’s ‘Khol’ RingThe “Khol” ring, our Piece of the Week, transforms the traditional Indian Khol drum into playful jewelry through hand-carved lapis.
MajorsJan 30, 2026
Arch Crown’s 2026 ‘Tag & Label’ Catalog Is HereThe catalog includes more than 100 styles of stock, pre-printed, and custom tags and labels, as well as bar code technology products.
CollectionsJan 29, 2026
Ghirardelli’s ‘Chocolocket’ Returns for Valentine’s DayThe chocolatier is bringing back its chocolate-inspired locket, offering sets of two to celebrate “perfect pairs.”
AuctionsJan 29, 2026
These Were Bonhams’ Top 10 Jewelry Lots in 2025The top lot of the year was a 1930s Cartier tiara owned by Nancy, Viscountess Astor, which sold for $1.2 million in London last summer.
SourcingJan 29, 2026
Stuller Website to Mark AGTA-Sourced GemstonesAny gemstones on Stuller.com that were sourced by an AGTA vendor member will now bear the association’s logo.
WatchesJan 29, 2026
Audemars Piguet Opens AP House in AtlantaThe Swiss watchmaker has brought its latest immersive boutique to Atlanta, a city it described as “an epicenter of music and storytelling.”
SourcingJan 28, 2026
Ethical Gem Fair to Debut Designer Showcase in TucsonThe new addition will feature finished jewelry created using “consciously sourced” gemstones.
ColumnistsJan 28, 2026
Peter Smith: Setting the Next Generation Up for SuccessIn his new column, Smith advises playing to your successor's strengths and resisting the urge to become a backseat driver.
IndependentsJan 28, 2026
Foundrae Heads to Aspen for Latest Store OpeningThe new store in Aspen, Colorado, takes inspiration from a stately library for its intimate yet elevated interior design.
FinancialsJan 28, 2026
Tiffany & Co., Bulgari Sales Resilient as LVMH’s 2025 Sales SlipThe brands’ high jewelry collections performed especially well last year despite a challenging environment.
CollectionsJan 27, 2026
De Beers London, GemFair Debut New Collection Highlighting Artisanal DiamondsThe collection marks the first time GemFair’s artisanal diamonds will be brought directly to consumers.
SourcingJan 27, 2026
GemGuide Launches Pricing for Montana SapphiresThe initial charts are for blue, teal, and green material, each grouped into three charts categorized as good, fine, and extra fine.
