SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsMar 25, 2025
Christie’s To Auction 35-Carat Sapphire, 13-Carat RubyThe ruby and the sapphire, which Christie’s calls a “once-in-a-generation masterpiece,” are part of the upcoming Hong Kong jewelry auction.
CrimeMar 25, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Earrings Swallowed Following Grab-and-Run Theft RecoveredThe two pairs of earrings, snatched from a Tiffany & Co. store in Orlando, Florida, are valued at a combined $769,500.
ColumnistsMar 25, 2025
The Smart Lab: Using Short-Form Videos to Sell More JewelryThe time to start experimenting with video content is now, writes columnist Emmanuel Raheb.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
CollectionsMar 24, 2025
Pomellato’s Latest ‘Nudo’ Collections Revamp its Classic DesignFrom striking high jewelry to miniature fine jewelry, the new chapter continues to highlight gemstones featuring its signature 57-facet cut.
Weekly QuizMar 21, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
MajorsMar 24, 2025
4 Top Executives to Depart Signet Jewelers Amid TurnaroundThe jewelry giant is reducing its senior leadership by 30 percent as part of its new turnaround strategy.
WatchesMar 24, 2025
Sotheby's Now Offers Watch Repair ServicesThe auction house's partnership with online watch servicing platform WatchCheck makes repairs convenient and accessible, it said.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
FinancialsMar 21, 2025
Swarovski Says Its Lab-Grown Diamond Sales Doubled in 2024The company also noted record sales in the United States and a strong performance in its jewelry category.
SourcingMar 21, 2025
BrankoGems To Hold Conference in MontanaThe event, set for June 13-15, will feature educational presentations and guided visits to the state’s sapphire mines.
TrendsMar 21, 2025
Piece of the Week: Marrow Fine’s ‘Til Death’ RingAfter the black enamel band became a best-seller for the brand, it has now launched an enamel ring personalization program.
IndependentsMar 20, 2025
Korman Fine Jewelry’s New Store Is Double the Size The Austin, Texas, jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot store is set to open this summer.
Events & AwardsMar 20, 2025
JCK Rocks to Feature Snoop Dogg, Jason DeruloThe rapper and singer-songwriter will perform at Tao Beach on June 8.
TechnologyMar 20, 2025
Chris Ploof, Severine Ferrari Launch YouTube Video Series“Conversations with Chris Ploof” covers tips for men buying wedding bands, behind-the-scenes footage of Ploof in his studio, and more.
Lab-GrownMar 20, 2025
Beyond Jewelry: Possibilities in the Lab-Grown Diamond SectorAs lab-grown diamond brands pop up across India, academics are researching how to grow demand outside of the jewelry industry.
MajorsMar 19, 2025
Signet Jewelers to Close Stores, Cut Staff Amid Declining SalesThe moves are part of the retailer’s new turnaround plan, “Grow Brand Love,” which also includes emphasizing brand loyalty over store banners.
CollectionsMar 19, 2025
Jessica McCormack’s New Collection Elevates Office WearThe “Rush Hour” campaign stars Zoë Kravitz in bold, wearable pieces designed to make a statement in the workplace.
WatchesMar 19, 2025
Breitling Acquires Another Watch Brand From the 1800sBreitling is reviving Gallet, which was founded in 1826 and is known for making watches used in the early days of long-distance travel.
AuctionsMar 19, 2025
10-Carat Fancy Vivid Blue Diamond Expected to Sell for $20MDubbed the “Mediterranean Blue,” this “remarkably rare” diamond will be part of Sotheby’s May jewelry auction in Geneva.
MajorsMar 19, 2025
AGS Adds New Program, Relaunches CSAThe American Gem Society now offers a Jewelry Evaluation Advisor designation as well as an updated Certified Sales Associate designation.
CollectionsMar 18, 2025
Beck Debuts New Collection as Trove’s Latest Designer-in-ResidenceRebecca Zeijdel-Paz created more than 75 new pieces for the residency, which will be on display at Trove’s store in New York through April.
ColumnistsMar 18, 2025
Peter Smith: The Importance of Culture in HiringSmith explores why a qualified candidate might still not be right for the job.
Events & AwardsMar 18, 2025
Fink’s Jewelers Is Now a Regional Emmy WinnerThe company and its marketing agency, Loudr, were recognized for the “Make You Dance” marketing campaign.
WatchesMar 18, 2025
Citizen Announces New Modern Luxury Watch CategoryThe “Series8” and “Attesa” collections will be grouped under Citizen Premier.
MajorsMar 18, 2025
Borsheims Names New Assistant IT ManagerDavid Fager, a former systems engineer at the retailer, was promoted to the role.
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2025
Gem Awards Honor All Facets of the IndustryFrom retailers to designers and the media, the fine jewelry industry recognized one another’s work and looked to the future.
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2025
GIA Names Winner of Emerging Jewelry Design Talent AwardEleanor H. Yeh is the recipient of the eighth annual Gianmaria Buccellati Foundation Award for Excellence in Jewelry Design.
