SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
CrimeApr 22, 2026
New Mexico Couple Pleads Guilty to Selling Fake Native American JewelryThe pair falsely claimed their jewelry was made by Navajo artists, but it was imported from Vietnam.
AuctionsApr 22, 2026
Roberta Flack’s Jewelry Is Going Up for AuctionJulien’s Auctions is selling the musician’s fine and fashion jewelry alongside her clothing, gold records, and other memorabilia.
CollectionsApr 22, 2026
British Museum Curator Pens Book on ‘The Tudor Heart’Rachel King’s book dives into the history of the pendant believed to have belonged to Henry VIII and his first wife, Katherine of Aragon.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
Events & AwardsApr 22, 2026
Here’s What Sy Kessler Has on Tap for Las Vegas The company will have deals on precious metals testers as well as the latest in lab-grown diamond detection technology and security.
Weekly QuizApr 16, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
WatchesApr 21, 2026
Coco Chanel Enters the Game with New Watch CollectionGabrielle “Coco” Chanel is a character in the “Coco Game” collection of watches and the queen in its first haute horlogerie chessboard.
IndependentsApr 21, 2026
Meet Jewelers of America’s 2026 ‘20 Under 40’ ClassThe annual list honors rising professionals on the retail and supply sides of the jewelry industry.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
CrimeApr 21, 2026
Customs Nabs 1,500 Pieces of Counterfeit Jewelry Bound for NYCSeized in Kentucky, the packages include fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., Chanel, and Fendi jewelry.
CrimeApr 20, 2026
Queens Man Convicted in Bludgeoning Death of Pawn Shop OwnerRodolfo Lopez-Portillo faces 25 years to life in prison after being found guilty in the March 2022 beating death of Arasb Shoughi.
TrendsApr 20, 2026
Beth Bernstein, Sonia Esther Soltani Pen New Jewelry Book“Jewelry Creators: Dynamic Duos and Generational Gems” highlights the relationships among 22 influential designers, brands, and gem dealers.
Events & AwardsApr 20, 2026
Atlanta Jewelry Show’s Spring Event Is Hitting the RoadThe AJS Spring 2027 show will be held in Savannah, Georgia, with future shows taking place in other Southeast cities.
MajorsApr 20, 2026
Kendra Scott Names New CFO, Chief Business OfficerThe jewelry retailer plans to open 20 new stores this year and expand into new product categories.
TrendsApr 17, 2026
New (Groundbreaking) Floral Jewelry for Spring 2026Flower motifs are the jewelry trend blooming amongst the new collections that debuted this spring.
MajorsApr 17, 2026
QVC Group Files for Chapter 11 BankruptcyThe retailer reported an 8 percent decline in annual sales as it struggles under the weight of billions of dollars of debt.
CollectionsApr 17, 2026
Edina Kiss’ Earrings Are the Devil on Your ShoulderThe “Devil” drop earrings, our Piece of the Week, are part of designer Edina Kiss’ new namesake jewelry line that she will show at Couture.
CrimeApr 17, 2026
FBI Issues Warning to Refineries, Retailers Due to High Price of GoldThe alert states that burglary crews are targeting jewelry businesses and details how jewelers and refineries can protect themselves.
WatchesApr 16, 2026
Cartier Brings Back the RoadsterThe “watchmaker of shapes” debuted the reworked version of the vintage sports car-inspired timepiece at Watches & Wonders.
IndependentsApr 16, 2026
Edge Retail Academy Updates Leadership TeamAs demand for jewelry retail coaching grows, the company has established a dedicated business coaching leadership team.
MajorsApr 16, 2026
Stuller’s Latest Mountings Catalog Is Out NowThe “Mountings 2026-2027” catalog showcases Stuller’s largest and most diverse assortment to date with more than 400 new mounting styles.
PodcastsApr 15, 2026
Episode 4: The Natural Diamond DilemmaSally Morrison and Mark Klein discuss De Beers’ first beacon in 16 years and the mistake the industry made with lab-grown diamonds.
MajorsApr 15, 2026
Spark Creations’ Randy McKenzie Dies at 72 McKenzie spent 45 years with Spark Creations and is remembered for being kind, dedicated, and hardworking.
WatchesApr 15, 2026
These Are the New Rolex Watches for 2026Rolex focused exclusively on the Oyster Perpetual this year, as the model is celebrating its 100th anniversary.
FinancialsApr 15, 2026
Kering’s Jewelry Shines in Q1, Gucci’s Struggle ContinuesThe luxury giant discussed the Middle East conflict and its transformation plans, hinting at a stronger jewelry presence in North America.
SourcingApr 15, 2026
Diamond Club West Coast Names 2026 BoardKalpesh Jhaveri was re-elected as president for a third year.
TechnologyApr 15, 2026
This Jewelry Brand’s Video Series Is Up for a Webby Award“Diamond Divas,” a social media reality series by Shahla Karimi Jewelry, is nominated in the “Best Social: Fashion & Beauty” category.
SourcingApr 14, 2026
De Beers Expands ‘Desert Diamonds’ Beacon Into BridalThe campaign seeks to reignite desire for natural diamond engagement rings by highlighting the “distinct character” of warm-toned diamonds.
