SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsSep 14, 2026
Sherry Smith: Stop Waiting for December to Save Your ChristmasThe stores that have a great December are the ones that made good decisions in August, September, and October, Sherry Smith writes.
AuctionsSep 14, 2026
22 Carats of ‘Sunshine’ Are Up for AuctionThe 22.09-carat fancy yellow “Pragnell Kimberley Sunshine Diamond” is part of the fall jewelry sale at Heritage Auctions.
IndependentsSep 14, 2026
Greenwich St. Jewelers to Unveil Photography Exhibition“Adornos: Jewelry, Memory & What We Pass Down” honors the jewelry’s importance to New York City’s Latine communities.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
SourcingSep 14, 2026
Gemfields Sells All Lots at First Emerald Auction in 9 MonthsThe company’s managing director of sales said the results demonstrate “continued strong demand for commercial-quality emeralds.”
Weekly QuizSep 10, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingSep 14, 2026
Diamonds Do Good Pledges Support for Eye Care ProgramThe nonprofit awarded a grant to the Gift of Sight initiative spearheaded by South African musician Black Coffee.
CollectionsSep 11, 2026
A Sapphire ‘Stardust’ Ring From Greenwich St. Jewelers The Latine-owned New York jeweler is marking two milestones this year: its 50th anniversary and the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
MajorsSep 11, 2026
The Wishing Place by JTV OpensThe jewelry retail broadcast network has sponsored a new space for Make-A-Wish East Tennessee on its campus in Knoxville.
Events & AwardsSep 11, 2026
The Edge Awards Scholarships to 2 Young Jewelry ProfessionalsThe recipients were recognized at the 24 Karat Club of the Southeastern United States’ annual banquet.
MajorsSep 10, 2026
Lagos Founder Steven Lagos Steps Down as CEO Keith Rolfe, CFO and COO of Lagos, is now at the jewelry brand’s helm while Steven takes on the role of executive chairman.
CrimeSep 10, 2026
FBI Offers $50K Reward for ‘Most Wanted’ Fugitive in $1M Jewelry HeistAlberto Perez-Elias is one of four men charged in the armed robbery of a Cape Coral, Florida, jewelry store and remains at large.
AuctionsSep 10, 2026
Massive Matched Pair of Paraíba Tourmalines Head to Sotheby’sThe “Kat Florence Luminas” will be offered together as one lot and could fetch up to $637,000.
SourcingSep 10, 2026
AGTA Announces 4 Newly Elected DirectorsFour directors were elected to the AGTA board and will serve three-year terms beginning in February.
AuctionsSep 10, 2026
Former Sotheby’s, Christie’s Exec Appointed CEO of Julien’s Auctions Ken Citron joins the celebrity memorabilia-focused auction house ahead of its first week-long series of events in Abu Dhabi.
FinancialsSep 09, 2026
Signet Jewelers to ‘Double Down’ on Blue Nile Amid Strong SalesThe jewelry retailer said it sees opportunity at higher price points, particularly in natural diamonds for bridal and fashion.
IndependentsSep 09, 2026
Sarah Leonard Fine Jewelers Closes After Nearly 80 YearsThe Los Angeles-based, family-owned jeweler was founded by Lenny and Sunny Friedman in 1946.
SourcingSep 09, 2026
Fura Gems Notes ‘Remarkable’ Interest in Larger Rubies at Latest SaleThe auction, held in Bangkok, was 96 percent sold by lot, with nearly 411,000 carats of Mozambiquan rubies sold.
MajorsSep 09, 2026
Stuller’s Latest Catalog Includes Its New Demi-Fine CollectionFine Jewelry 2027-2028 has more than 900 new styles, including silver, gold-filled, gold-plated sterling silver, and vermeil jewelry.
Policies & IssuesSep 09, 2026
8 Key Changes the FTC Made to the Jewelry Guides: A Refresher Learn more about the new terms for lab-grown diamonds and composite gemstones, and the major changes in store for precious metals jewelry.
IndependentsSep 08, 2026
Ricky Bromberg, Longtime President of Bromberg & Co., Dies at 67 Bromberg is remembered as a Southern gentleman who always wore a suit and tie and treated others with kindness.
TrendsSep 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: A Hot Take on September’s Birthstone With high durability and a wide range of colors to choose from, sapphires may be the ultimate birthstone, Gizzi claims.
ColumnistsSep 08, 2026
Peter Smith: Humor Is No Laughing MatterLaughter is often considered a distraction in the workplace, but it has benefits for both staff and management, Peter Smith writes.
MajorsSep 08, 2026
Former Tiffany & Co. Exec Joins Exemplar Luxury GroupGretchen Koback Pursel is the new chief people officer at the company formerly known as Saks Global.
IndependentsSep 04, 2026
Orloff Jewelers Will Soon Unveil a Bigger, Better LocationThe California jeweler is renovating its store in Fresno, with plans to show off the new space in December.
CollectionsSep 04, 2026
Chelsea Gabrielle Transforms Pilates Reformer Springs Into Ring A lifelong practitioner of Pilates, Gabrielle looked to the springs’ tension and suspension when creating this ring, our Piece of the Week.
Events & AwardsSep 04, 2026
JCK Industry Fund Accepting 2027 ApplicationsThe deadline to apply is Nov. 13.
