SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsJan 07, 2026
Peter Smith: Physical Retail—The Beginning or the End?As the shopping mall model evolves and online retail grows, Smith shares his predictions for the future of physical stores.
Events & AwardsJan 07, 2026
Melee Adds 13 New Designers to NYC ShowThe trade show is slated for Jan. 31-Feb. 2 at The Lighthouse in New York City's Chelsea neighborhood.
TrendsJan 07, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Go for GarnetJanuary’s birthstone comes in a rainbow of colors, from the traditional red to orange, purple, and green.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
SourcingJan 07, 2026
Diamonds Do Good Releases 2025 Impact ReportThe annual report highlights how it supported communities in areas where natural diamonds are mined, crafted, and sold.
Weekly QuizDec 23, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeJan 06, 2026
2 Jewelers Arrested After TraxNYC Diamond District BrawlFootage of a fight breaking out in the NYC Diamond District was viewed millions of times on Instagram and Facebook.
MajorsJan 06, 2026
Rio Grande Says These Are the Top Personalization Tools for 2026The supplier has a curated list of must-have tools for jewelers doing in-house custom work this year.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
MajorsJan 06, 2026
Zales Tests Out A New LookThe Signet Jewelers-owned store, which turned 100 last year, calls its new concept stores “The Edit.”
MajorsJan 06, 2026
LeachGarner Appoints New Director of SalesLinda Coutu is rejoining the precious metals provider as its director of sales.
SourcingJan 06, 2026
AGA Announces 2026 BoardThe governing board welcomed two new members, Claire Scragg and Susan Eisen.
TrendsJan 05, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: New Year’s EditionSparkle with festive diamond jewelry as we celebrate the beginning of 2026.
IndependentsJan 05, 2026
Jeweler Ben Nighthorse Campbell Dies at 92The master jeweler, Olympian, former senator, and Korean War veteran founded the brand Nighthorse Jewelry.
TrendsJan 05, 2026
Pinterest 2026 Trend Report: Brooches, Bold Gold, Cool BlueIn its annual report, Pinterest noted an increase in searches for brooches, heirloom jewelry, and ‘80s luxury.
MajorsJan 02, 2026
Marc Metrick Out as CEO of Saks Global Executive Chairman Richard Baker will take over the role as rumors swirl that a bankruptcy filing is imminent for the troubled retailer.
Events & AwardsJan 02, 2026
Jan Mohr, Couture’s ‘North Star,’ Dies at 71Mohr had just retired in June after more than two decades as Couture’s retailer liaison.
SourcingJan 02, 2026
IDCA Elects New President, Board of DirectorsShekhar Shah of Real Gems Inc. will serve as president of the Indian Diamond & Colorstone Association in 2026.
CollectionsJan 02, 2026
Lalaounis’ 2026 Good Luck Charm Speaks to ResilienceThis year’s good luck charm features the mythical horse Pegasus, and is our first Piece of the Week of the new year.
EditorsDec 31, 2025
The Top 5 Stories of 2025Articles about crime, engagement rings, and a necklace worn in the World Series generated the most interest among readers.
MajorsDec 30, 2025
Becka Johnson Kibby to Lead Edge Retail AcademyAs part of the leadership transition, Sherry Smith will take on the role of vice president of coaching strategy and development.
SourcingDec 30, 2025
India Chosen as KP Chair for 2026It marks the third time the country has headed the Kimberley Process. Ghana will serve as vice chair.
WatchesDec 30, 2025
Bulova, Stetson Collab on Watches With Western FlairThe new Bulova x Stetson designs highlight two animals often associated with the American West—the bison and the Texas Longhorn.
CollectionsDec 30, 2025
Rahaminov Diamonds Pops Up in FloridaIts residency at Yamron Jewelers will run through May 2026.
IndependentsDec 29, 2025
In Memoriam: Industry Friends We Lost in 2025From influential executives to innovative designers, we pay tribute to the people we said goodbye to this year.
MajorsDec 29, 2025
Tanishq Opens New Stores in Florida, VirginiaThe retailer is expanding into areas with large Indian and South Asian populations.
MajorsDec 29, 2025
Nanis Opens First Flagship Store The Italian brand has opened its first flagship amid the peaks of the Dolomites in Madonna di Campiglio, Italy.
SourcingDec 29, 2025
‘Unearthed: Raw Beauty’ Exhibition Opens at LA MuseumThe new curation at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County showcases rare gem and mineral specimens in their uncut, natural state.
