SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsApr 26, 2024
Piece of the Week: Jacquie Aiche’s Starry Galaxy NecklaceThe necklace is featured in the brand’s “Rebel Heart” campaign starring Adam Levine and Behati Prinsloo.
Events & AwardsApr 26, 2024
AGS Conclave and GIA Symposium Are ConvergingThe two organizations will host a joint event, “Converge,” in September 2025.
SourcingApr 26, 2024
Anglo American Reportedly Shopping De Beers as BHP Eyes Anglo Big changes appear to be on the horizon for the diamond miner and its parent company, Anglo American.
Brought to you by
The Blueprint for Success in Scalable, Personalized Jewelry RetailWith Ho Brothers, you can unlock your brand's true potential and offer customers the personalized jewelry experiences they desire.
Events & AwardsApr 25, 2024
Alexis Padis Takes Over as AGS Board President Padis succeeds Lisa Bridge, marking the first time the organization has had two women board presidents in a row.
Weekly QuizApr 26, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
EditorsApr 25, 2024
5 Tips for Creating Fans from the Top (Savannah) Banana Jesse Cole, founder of Fans First Entertainment, shared the “five Es” of building a fan base during his AGS Conclave keynote.
WatchesApr 25, 2024
Audemars Piguet and John Mayer Partner on Limited Edition WatchThe Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar "John Mayer" was celebrated at a star-studded party in LA last week.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers of America Represents Your BusinessFor over 30 years, JA has advocated for the industry, fought against harmful legislation and backed measures that help jewelry businesses.
SourcingApr 25, 2024
De Beers Lowers Production Guidance for 2024The announcement came as the company reported a 23 percent drop in production in Q1.
MajorsApr 25, 2024
Detroit Lions’ QB Jared Goff Keeps Going to JaredThe three-time Pro Bowler continues to partner with the retailer, donating to a Detroit nonprofit and giving watches to fans.
CrimeApr 24, 2024
Jewelry Crime Declines Significantly, But Dollar Losses Remain High A double-digit drop in the number of in-store crimes was offset by a jump in off-premises attacks, JSA’s 2023 crime report shows.
CollectionsApr 24, 2024
Pippa Small Announces ‘Venus’ CollectionInspired by the Roman goddess of love, the designer looked to the sea for her new collection.
FinancialsApr 24, 2024
Kering’s Jewelry Brands a Bright Spot in Tough Q1The luxury titan posted declining sales, weighed down by Gucci’s poor performance.
Events & AwardsApr 24, 2024
JCK Industry Fund Announces 2024 Grant RecipientsThe selected nine organizations have outlined their plans for the funds.
SourcingApr 24, 2024
Rio Tinto’s Q1 Production Drops Amid Pause to Honor Lost Colleagues The mining company’s Diavik Diamond Mine lost four employees in a plane crash in January.
WatchesApr 24, 2024
These Are Rolex’s New Watches for 2024 The crown introduced a dozen timepieces in Geneva, including a heavy metal version of its deep-sea divers’ watch.
ColumnistsApr 23, 2024
The Smart Lab: Advanced Email Marketing Strategies for Mother’s DayEmmanuel Raheb recommends digging into demographic data, customizing your store’s communications, and retargeting ahead of May 12.
IndependentsApr 23, 2024
Hannoush Jewelers Opens New Store in New York Located in the town of Queensbury, it features a dedicated bridal section and a Gabriel & Co. store-in-store.
SourcingApr 23, 2024
Lucapa Sells 3 Diamonds for $10.5M in First Lulo Tender of 2024A 203-carat diamond from the alluvial mine in Angola achieved the highest price.
GradingApr 23, 2024
GIA Has a New Book About William RuserRuser was known for his figural jewelry with freshwater pearls and for his celebrity clientele.
CollectionsApr 22, 2024
Jacquie Aiche’s New Campaign Stars Adam Levine, Behati PrinslooThe “Rebel Heart” campaign embodies rebellion, romance, and sensuality, the brand said.
EditorsApr 22, 2024
The 22 Best Quotes from AGS Conclave 2024 Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff shares the standout moments from the education sessions she attended in Austin last week.
SourcingApr 22, 2024
Virtual Diamond Boutique Rebrands as ‘VDB’The overhaul includes a new logo and enhanced digital marketplace.
MajorsApr 22, 2024
Signet Raises Nearly $9M for St. Jude Children’s Research HospitalThe money will go toward supporting ongoing research and aftercare programs for childhood cancer survivors.
CollectionsApr 19, 2024
Piece of the Week: Retrouvaí’s Treasure NecklaceA new addition to the “Heirloom” collection, this one-of-a-kind piece features 32 custom-cut gemstones.
CrimeApr 19, 2024
Grand Jury to Hear Case Against Jeweler Charged in Fatal Shove Following IJO ShowLast month in Dallas, David Walton pushed another jeweler, David Ettinger, who later died.
MajorsApr 19, 2024
Unique Designs Acquires China PearlThe move will allow the manufacturing company to offer a more “diverse and comprehensive” range of products.
