SurveysJul 10, 2023
Consumer Confidence on the Rise in JuneSurveysJul 27, 2023
Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End
This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June.
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June.
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July.
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent.
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month.
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June.
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board.
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June.
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat.
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June.
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June.
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent.
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board.
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June.
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent.
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent.
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession.
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year.
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July.
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson.
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home."
More on Surveys
The Latest
Policies & IssuesOct 03, 2024
RJO, CERF+ Join Those Offering Hurricane Helene Relief to Affected JewelersPlus, how to apply for emergency funds and donate to recovery efforts.
SourcingOct 03, 2024
How India Became the World’s Second-Largest Market for Diamond Jewelry A strong economy, a growing middle class with an affinity for brands, and rapid expansion of organized retail have fueled the market’s rise.
CrimeOct 03, 2024
Man Who Shared Spoils of $2.7M Smash-and-Grab on Social Media Pleads Guilty to Robbery ChargeLadell Tharpe, 39, took part in a 2022 jewelry store robbery and then posted pictures of cash on Instagram with the text “Robbery Gang.”
Brought to you by
Enhance Your Expertise with IGI’s In-Person Courses in NYCThis fall, sharpen your skills in jewelry grading, quality control and diamond assessment.
MajorsOct 03, 2024
JA Appoints New Board DirectorThe trade organization welcomed Sheryl Jones to its board of directors for a three-year term.
Weekly QuizOct 03, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
MajorsOct 03, 2024
Pandora Names 3rd CMO in Past 5 YearsNew Chief Marketing Officer Berta de Pablos-Barbier has worked for LVMH’s champagne brands and Kering-owned Boucheron.
TrendsOct 03, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: October’s ArrivalTransition to fall with this month’s birthstones of opal and tourmaline.
Brought to you by
Why You Can't Miss JA New York This FallDon't miss this one-stop-shop in October, curated with buyers’ needs in mind.
AuctionsOct 03, 2024
Dame Shirley Bassey’s Diamonds Are Ready for Their EncoreSotheby’s will auction jewelry belonging to the “Diamonds Are Forever” singer Oct. 10 in Paris.
Lab-GrownOct 02, 2024
Lightbox Continues as a Brand, While Supplies Last?The De Beers-owned lab-grown diamond company is rebranding and creating new collections, though its long-term future remains unclear.
CollectionsOct 02, 2024
Brilliant Earth Debuts Jane Goodall CollectionThe collection is part of the retailer’s new “Rethink Everything You Know About Diamonds” campaign.
AuctionsOct 02, 2024
The GOAT’s Stash: Watches Owned by Tom Brady Going Up for Auction The sale includes the custom-made, diamond-set Audemars Piguet watch the QB wore for Netflix’s “The Roast of Tom Brady.”
Events & AwardsOct 02, 2024
AJA’s Design Competition Now Accepting EntriesThe Armenian Jewellers Association is hosting its design competition for the second year, with winners showcasing at GemGenève in May 2025.
MajorsOct 01, 2024
Signet Jewelers CEO Gina Drosos to RetireThe jewelry retailer has named her successor and also will expand the role of Chief Financial Officer Joan Hilson.
MajorsOct 01, 2024
Kay Jewelers to Revamp BrandThe Signet Jewelers-owned banner has a new campaign and plans for store redesigns.
CollectionsOct 01, 2024
JV Insardi Inspires Curiosity in New CollectionCreative Director Jen Insardi brings a new take on classic gold bead designs to her “Solar” collection.
IndependentsOct 01, 2024
Oklahoma Jewelers Association Grants Lifetime Achievement AwardThe recipient, Glenn Douglass, also was inducted into the OJA Hall of Fame.
MajorsOct 01, 2024
Stuller Celebrates Long-Serving EmployeesThe manufacturer recognized several team members at its 2024 Milestone Anniversary Banquet.
AuctionsSep 30, 2024
Oscar Heyman Jewels, Paraíba Pieces Shine at Bonhams Auction The single-owner collection sale, which took place in New York last week, achieved $4.8 million, with almost every lot finding a buyer.
TrendsSep 30, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: Dainty DelightsWhile statement pieces always shine, it’s time for everyday staples to be the star of the show.
Policies & IssuesSep 30, 2024
JA Fly-In to DC Focuses on Russian Diamonds, Retail CrimeJewelers of America leadership and members recently headed to D.C. to share the industry’s top concerns with lawmakers.
Recorded WebinarsSep 27, 2024
Watch: Prepare to Shine This Holiday SeasonThree members of JA's 2024 "20 Under 40" class join Amanda Gizzi and Lauren McLemore to share their tips for seasonal retail success.
CollectionsSep 27, 2024
Piece of the Week: Lalaounis’ Necklace is an Archaeological RevivalThe necklace, inspired by ancient artifacts, celebrates strength, endurance, and the natural world.
MajorsSep 27, 2024
Signet-Owned E-Tailer Rocksbox to Launch on AmazonRocksbox is the first banner owned by Signet to sell its jewelry through the retail giant.
EditorsSep 26, 2024
This New Bulova Documentary Is Perfect for History Buffs Like Me “America Telling Time: 150 Years of Bulova” dives into the watchmaker’s storied past, from its ad campaigns to the first women’s wristwatch.
CollectionsSep 26, 2024
Marco Bicego Adds Stackable Designs to Masai CollectionThe new additions include flat coil rings, bracelets, and necklaces designed to layer elegantly.
MajorsSep 26, 2024
Kendra Scott Eyes Network, Product Expansion Following New Investment 65 Equity Partners has made a “significant” minority investment in the company, though founder Kendra Scott retains a majority stake.
