Surveys

Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End

SurveysJul 27, 2023

Conference Board Predicts Recession Before Year’s End

This is in spite of rising consumer confidence in July.

Hand holding shopping bags
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 117 in July from 110.1 in June.
New York—U.S. consumers got a confidence boost in July, marking the second consecutive month of a positive outlook, though concerns about a recession grew. 
 
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 117 in July from a slightly upwardly revised 110.1 in June. 
 
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.  
 
"Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000." 
 
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 160 from 155.3 in June. 
 
Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was slightly more pessimistic in July. 
 
The percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” was down to 22 percent from 23 percent in June, while those who said conditions were “bad” was unchanged at 15 percent. 
  
However, consumers had a more positive view of the labor market. 
  
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 47 percent in July from 45 percent in June, while 10 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent the previous month. 
 
"Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform,” said Peterson.  
  
 Related stories will be right here … 
 
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 88.3 from 80 in June. 
 
Eighty is the level associated with a recession within the next year.  
 
Prior to June, the index had been below 80 every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. 
 
“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year end,” said the Conference Board. 
 
Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with 17 percent expecting business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in June. 
  
Fewer respondents expect business conditions to worsen—14 percent compared with 18 percent. 
  
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was more upbeat. 
  
More respondents expect more jobs to be available, up to 16 from 15 percent.  
  
Meanwhile, 15 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, down from 17 percent in June. 
 
"Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable,” said Peterson. 
 
Consumers’ short-term income expectations, however, were more pessimistic. 
  
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in June. 
 
However, 10 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12 percent. 
 
“Expectations for future incomes ticked down slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago,” said Peterson. 
 
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances. 
 
In July, respondents’ answers reflected “still-healthy” family finances, said the Conference Board. 
 
The number of respondents who described their current family financial situation as “good” was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in June. 
 
Fewer respondents described their family financial situation as “bad,” down to 18 percent from 19 percent. 
 
Respondents’ more upbeat outlook on current family finances could reflect “softening inflation and continued income support from employment,” noted Peterson. 
 
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook on their family finances in six months’ time faltered. 
 
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect their family finances to be “better,” down from 32 percent in June, while 14 percent expect them to be “worse,” up from 13 percent. 
 
The Conference Board also recently added a measure to gauge respondents’ thoughts on a recession. 
 
In July, 71 percent of consumers said a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat” or “very likely,” up from 70 percent in June, though below its peak earlier in the year. 
 
Recession fears had been rising steadily since August 2022, said the Conference Board, but “eased considerably” in June, only to tick back up in July. 
 
"In our periodic survey of services, consumers continued to report intentions to spend less on discretionary services—including travel, recreation, and gambling—going forward,” said Peterson. 
 
“By contrast, they anticipate spending more in the months ahead on necessary services like health care, as well as cheaper services like streaming from home." 
 

The Latest

Feriel Zerouki, De Beers Chief Trade and Industry Officer
SourcingOct 09, 2025
Feriel Zerouki Is Leaving De Beers

The company and industry leader’s two-decade tenure with De Beers will come to a close at the end of the month.

Fabergé Imperial Winter Egg
AuctionsOct 09, 2025
This Fabergé Egg Could Crack $27M At Auction

“The Winter Egg” set the world auction record for a Fabergé piece twice at previous Christie’s sales.

Kessler watch battery recycling program
MajorsOct 09, 2025
Sy Kessler Buying Watch Batteries as Silver Hits Record High

The company will pay 1.5x silver’s current spot price for each pound of silver oxide batteries submitted.

ja_fall_2024_by_headshot_stories_6824.jpg
Brought to you by
JA New York Fall Is Right Around the Corner

The upcoming show provides savvy retailers with the opportunity to stock their cases with best sellers in advance of the holiday season.

Katkim Men’s Collection Shadow Pendant Necklace and Anerise Signet Band
CollectionsOct 09, 2025
Katkim Launches First Men’s Collection

The line includes a “Shadow” series crafted exclusively for the new men’s offering and reimagined styles from the brand’s core collections.

Weekly QuizOct 09, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Gemfields Rough Rubies
SourcingOct 09, 2025
Gemfields’ Mini Mixed-Quality Ruby Auction Garners $11M

The rough on offer was recovered from a newer area at the Montepuez mine.

“Storied Diamond Desert Sands of Eternity” engagement ring and wedding band
SourcingOct 08, 2025
In ‘Storied Diamond,’ Jared Jewelers Is Emphasizing the Journey

The retailer’s new collection of engagement rings and fashion jewelry is set with natural diamonds that are traceable via blockchain.

gia-edu main image.png
Brought to you by
A Brilliant Future Is Here

Online education from GIA experts.

Emily P. Wheeler Ombré Collection Campaign
CollectionsOct 08, 2025
Emily P. Wheeler Shifts Into Neutral for Latest ‘Ombré’ Collection

The champagne colorway in her newest “Ombré” collection combines white and trendy brown diamonds, a departure from her usual vibrant hues.

MRK x MFA Tsuba Charm Necklace Collection Campaign
CollectionsOct 08, 2025
Tsuba Designs Inspire Monica Rich Kosann’s New Charms

Kosann partnered with the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, to create a set of necklaces inspired by the artwork on samurai sword handguards.

Stock image of a gavel and law books
CrimeOct 07, 2025
Men Who Posed as Utility Workers Found Guilty in Jeweler’s Murder

Carlos Jose Hernandez and Joshua Zuazo face life in prison for the October 2024 murder of 72-year-old Detroit-area jeweler Hussein Murray.

Zoë Kravitz Wearing Jessica McCormack Tempest Sapphire Pendant and Tempest Diamond Necklace
CollectionsOct 07, 2025
Jessica McCormack Looks to Sea Spirits for ‘Tempest’ Collection

The brand’s first high jewelry collection, “Tempest” plays with movement while calling to mind the folklore of the sea.

Lightning Ridge Rural Fire Brigade
SourcingOct 07, 2025
Columbia Gem House Announces ‘Opals for Outback Heroes’ Fundraiser

Proceeds from its jewelry raffle will go to a volunteer-run fire and rescue group in the Lightning Ridge area of New South Wales, Australia.

Stuller 2025 S.E.R.V.E. Star Awards winners
MajorsOct 07, 2025
Stuller Names Its S.E.R.V.E Stars for 2025

Stuller said the recipients embody the company’s core values, which include community participation and personal and professional growth.

All four models of Citizen’s new Rainell watch
WatchesOct 06, 2025
This Fall, Citizen’s Forecast Calls for Rain

Citizen’s new “Rainell” women’s watch has a raindrop-shaped case and is available with a silver-, gold-, purple-, or green-colored dial.

Mercedes Gleitze Rolex Oyster 1926
AuctionsOct 06, 2025
The ‘Rolex That Made Rolex’ Heads to Auction at Sotheby’s

The “Mercedes Gleitze Rolex Oyster,” named for the British endurance swimmer who made it famous, will go up for sale next month.

Amit Pratihari GIA India
GradingOct 06, 2025
GIA India Names Former De Beers Exec as New Managing Director

Amit Pratihari was previously the managing director of De Beers India and Forevermark India.

DCWC 2025 Board of Directors
SourcingOct 06, 2025
SoCal 24 Karat Club Integrates Into Diamond Club West Coast

Members of the Jewelers 24 Karat Club of Southern California will gain access to expanded services, resources, and connections, DCWC said.

Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco Wedding, Jacob & Co. Watch
TrendsOct 03, 2025
Selena Gomez, Benny Blanco Tie the Knot Wearing Diamonds, White Metals

Gomez’s jewelry included Tiffany & Co. drop-style earrings while Blanco stacked diamonds from Jacob & Co. on his wrist.

HRD Antwerp CEO Paul De Wachter
GradingOct 03, 2025
Grading Lab HRD Antwerp Names New CEO

Diamond industry banking veteran Paul De Wachter will take on the role in January 2026.

Taylor Swift Kallati sapphire ring
TrendsOct 03, 2025
Piece of the Week: Kallati’s Pink Sapphire Ring

Taylor Swift flaunts an Elizabeth Taylor-esque gemstone in promo for her new album, “The Life of a Showgirl.”

Boucheron Quatre Sand Collection
CollectionsOct 02, 2025
Boucheron Debuts Cuffs Crafted With 3D-Printed Sand

Its “Quantre Sand” capsule was made using a 3D sand printing technique borrowed from the automotive and aeronautics industries.

Stock image of crime scene tape
CrimeOct 02, 2025
$1M in Jewelry Stolen in Northern California Smash and Grab

Four individuals have been charged in the “takeover-style” robbery of Heller Jewelers last month, and additional charges are expected.

Neil Lane and Boucheron bow tie brooch
MajorsOct 02, 2025
Neil Lane Jewelry Exhibition Coming to Toledo Museum of Art

“Radiance and Reverie” will showcase more than 150 jewels from Lane’s personal collection by Tiffany & Co., Cartier, and more.

Just Jules opal necklace
TrendsOct 02, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: October’s Colorful Show

The month’s birthstones, tourmaline and opal, complement the palette of autumn.

Peter Smith National Jeweler columnist
ColumnistsOct 01, 2025
Peter Smith: Why Vendor Success Starts With Self-Reflection

Smith shares the importance of looking at your company with openness and honesty to identify opportunities you may be missing.

Plah Black Swan Earrings
EditorsOct 01, 2025
Playing Favorites: The Best Jewelry From Vicenzaoro

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco visited Italy to spot jewelry trends at the September Vicenzaoro show and share her top finds.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy