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Consumer Confidence Inches Up in April Despite Rising Gas Prices
Respondents were concerned about the Middle East conflict and how it will impact their finances.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.8 in April from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence inched up slightly in April, but concerns about the conflict in the Middle East and rising gas prices persisted.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index increased to 92.8 in April from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March.
Notably, the survey period was April 1-22, which included the temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict that began on April 8, and the rebound in U.S. equities that followed, said The Conference Board.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, slipped to 123.8 in April from an upwardly revised 123.5 in March.
Consumers were more pessimistic about current business conditions, while views on employment improved slightly.
The labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—rose slightly.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 72.2 in April from an upwardly revised 71 in March.
It marked the 15th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Expectations about the labor market and household income six months from now were up slightly, while views on business conditions were slightly more negative.
The percentage of respondents who said a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” rose again, as did the number of those who believe the U.S. is already in one.
Notably, these measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.
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The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index increased to 92.8 in April from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March.
Notably, the survey period was April 1-22, which included the temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict that began on April 8, and the rebound in U.S. equities that followed, said The Conference Board.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, slipped to 123.8 in April from an upwardly revised 123.5 in March.
Consumers were more pessimistic about current business conditions, while views on employment improved slightly.
The labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—rose slightly.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 72.2 in April from an upwardly revised 71 in March.
It marked the 15th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Expectations about the labor market and household income six months from now were up slightly, while views on business conditions were slightly more negative.
The percentage of respondents who said a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” rose again, as did the number of those who believe the U.S. is already in one.
Notably, these measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.
By demographic, confidence on a six-month moving average basis was down in April for consumers 35 and older, while younger consumers were a bit more confident.
Respondents under 35 remained the most optimistic, with Millennials and Gen Z seeing confidence improve, while those 55 and over were the least optimistic.
By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis was mixed, but most income groups were more pessimistic in April.
By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was down for Independents and improved slightly for Democrats.
Consumers’ write-in responses were more pessimistic in April regarding the economy.
“Comments about prices, oil and gas, and war increased in frequency compared to March—a likely signal of consumers’ underlying worries about how the war in the Middle East will impact their pockets,” said The Conference Board.
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations slipped in April, but remained elevated.
The percentage of consumers who expect interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50 percent.
Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now also were up.
Consumers’ views of their family’s current and future financial situations were more pessimistic in April.
While many consumers still plan to buy big-ticket items over the next six months, a rising number have shifted their answer from “yes” or “maybe” to “no.”
The most popular items include used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones.
As for spending on services, anticipated spending over the next six months fell for every category in April, except for pet care.
The top category for spending was still restaurants, bars, and take-out, followed by beauty and personal care, and then streaming, internet, and mobile services.
As for travel plans in the next six months, respondents continued to choose domestic destinations over international travel, though foreign travel plans did recover somewhat.
Expected spending on airfare and trains for personal travel was down again in April.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for May are scheduled to be released on May 26.
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