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Edahn Golan: What a K-Shaped Economy Means for Fine Jewelry
In a column for the 2026 State of the Majors issue, Golan spells out how the growing economic divide in the U.S. is reshaping the market.
Edahn Golan is an industry analyst and researcher and managing partner of trend analytics company Tenoris. He compiles the sales figures for the $100 Million Supersellers list.
Editor’s Note: This story first appeared in the print edition of the 2026 State of the Majors. The author, Edahn Golan, compiles the sales figures that appear in the issue’s “$100 Million Supersellers” list. Read more of Golan’s industry research on EdahnGolan.com.
The jewelry industry is always evolving, but the past six years, from the COVID shock to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have reshaped both costs and consumer behavior.
Gold and silver prices have surged. Energy costs have risen. Tariffs have changed repeatedly.
Financing has become more expensive. Shipping and logistics remain volatile.
Each of these factors has affected manufacturing costs, the availability of materials, and ultimately, the prices consumers see in stores.
At the same time, consumer purchasing patterns have changed.
These shifts mean that businesses across the value chain—retailers, manufacturers, wholesalers, and suppliers—can no longer operate exactly as they did before.
Companies that fail to adjust their strategy to the new market reality may find themselves struggling.
One of the most important structural changes is the growing divide in the U.S. consumer base, with American jewelry buyers increasingly split into two distinct groups.
The first group is spending less overall and buying fewer pieces, particularly jewelry priced below $1,500.
Over the past year, these consumers did spend slightly more per item, but not enough to offset the decline in unit sales. As a result, revenue from this segment has generally declined.
The one notable exception is lab-grown diamond jewelry. Demand for the category continues to grow, although much of the volume is concentrated in relatively simple items such as stud earrings, not higher-value pieces.
The jewelry industry is always evolving, but the past six years, from the COVID shock to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have reshaped both costs and consumer behavior.
Gold and silver prices have surged. Energy costs have risen. Tariffs have changed repeatedly.
Financing has become more expensive. Shipping and logistics remain volatile.
Each of these factors has affected manufacturing costs, the availability of materials, and ultimately, the prices consumers see in stores.
At the same time, consumer purchasing patterns have changed.
These shifts mean that businesses across the value chain—retailers, manufacturers, wholesalers, and suppliers—can no longer operate exactly as they did before.
Companies that fail to adjust their strategy to the new market reality may find themselves struggling.
One of the most important structural changes is the growing divide in the U.S. consumer base, with American jewelry buyers increasingly split into two distinct groups.
The first group is spending less overall and buying fewer pieces, particularly jewelry priced below $1,500.
Over the past year, these consumers did spend slightly more per item, but not enough to offset the decline in unit sales. As a result, revenue from this segment has generally declined.
The one notable exception is lab-grown diamond jewelry. Demand for the category continues to grow, although much of the volume is concentrated in relatively simple items such as stud earrings, not higher-value pieces.
“The middle of the market is shrinking. Businesses that try to serve everyone risk serving no one particularly well.”
– Edahn Golan, Tenoris
The second group of consumers is moving in the opposite direction.
Shoppers buying jewelry priced above $1,500 are spending significantly more overall.
However, their average spending per item has remained relatively stable. The increase in total spending is mainly due to more units being bought, rather than higher prices.
This group continues to spend heavily on bridal jewelry, diamond stud earrings, and tennis bracelets, most often set with natural diamonds.
In economic terms, this is a classic K-shaped market: one segment of consumers is pulling back, while the other continues to expand its spending.
The strategic challenge for retailers is that the middle of the market is shrinking. Businesses that try to serve everyone risk serving no one particularly well.
This divide has major implications not only for inventory, but also for positioning.
Stores that want to serve the lower-price segment likely will need to go heavy on lab-grown diamonds, offer competitive pricing, and build their business model around being a higher-volume retailer.
Retailers targeting higher-end consumers face a different set of decisions. Their stores must communicate luxury: fewer pieces on display, more space around each item, and stronger storytelling around craftsmanship and materials.
Inventory strategy also becomes critical. Can a retailer serving this segment afford not to hold natural diamonds on hand for custom work?
Manufacturers face similar strategic choices.
Some will focus on producing fast-moving everyday jewelry at accessible price points.
Others will concentrate on higher-end designs, emphasizing craftsmanship, innovation, and differentiation.
Trying to straddle both segments, or continuing to rely on the $1,000-$2,500 price range, may prove increasingly difficult.
There is a reason I’m discussing this in an issue dedicated to the largest U.S. jewelry retailers.
Most of the major players already have chosen which side of the market they want to serve.
They are either volume-driven retailers or luxury-focused sellers. They are either heavily invested in lab-grown diamonds or strongly oriented toward natural diamonds.
Signet Jewelers is the exception to the rule.
It remains the largest jewelry retailer in North America in terms of both sales ($100 Million Supersellers list) and number of stores (Top 50 Specialty Jewelers list), operating across multiple market segments through its various banners.
Behind it on the $100 Million Supersellers list are two mass-market retailers (Amazon and Walmart), and two high-end, iconic luxury companies with well-established brands, Richemont and LVMH.
Notably, many of the mass-market players are currently experiencing declines in jewelry sales.
U.S. specialty jewelers performed better year-over-year than multi-item retailers. That is not surprising.
Specialty jewelers, especially independents, are deeply rooted in their communities. They know their products well and speak about them with confidence and passion.
Large chains, by contrast, are designed to move substantial volumes of product while tightly controlling costs. Turnover among sales staff is often high, meaning that while large chains offer consumers a bargain, they do not always build long-term relationships.
The U.S. jewelry retail landscape remains fragmented compared with most other industries for one reason—because this dynamic works. It serves customers well and often generates strong returns for successful operators.
The key takeaway from all of this is that the split in the market is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Adjusting to changing consumer demand will require businesses to adapt accordingly.
In today’s market, success increasingly depends on choosing a clear position: volume or luxury, lab-grown or natural, price leadership or product differentiation.
The middle of the market is becoming harder to defend, and the largest U.S. retailers have already made their choice.
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