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Consumers’ Outlook Improves Again in March
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up, with optimism about the present outweighing worries about the future.
Consumer confidence increased again, but the cost of living continues to weigh on consumers’ minds, The Conference Board’s latest survey shows. In March, consumers were particularly concerned with the cost of gas, which has increased significantly since the start of the war in Iran.
New York—Consumer confidence inched up for the second month in a row, with an improved outlook on the present outweighing consumers’ pessimism about the near future.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March (the baseline for the index is 100), up from a downwardly revised 91.0 in February.
March’s index is a tale of two attitudes: consumers are feeling better about the present but are less sure about the future.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased 4.6 points month-over-month to 123.3.
However, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, slipped 1.7 points to 70.9.
The Conference Board pointed out that while it did not impact overall confidence, consumers’ average and median inflation expectations “surged” in March to levels not seen since August 2025, when everyone was waiting for more tariff announcements.
The increase, The Conference Board said, was due to rising costs caused by tariff passthrough and the spike in oil prices following the start of the war in Iran, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28.
The cost of living also continues to dominate survey-takers’ write-in responses.
The Conference Board’s Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson, said, “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds.
“As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”
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The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March (the baseline for the index is 100), up from a downwardly revised 91.0 in February.
March’s index is a tale of two attitudes: consumers are feeling better about the present but are less sure about the future.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased 4.6 points month-over-month to 123.3.
However, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, slipped 1.7 points to 70.9.
The Conference Board pointed out that while it did not impact overall confidence, consumers’ average and median inflation expectations “surged” in March to levels not seen since August 2025, when everyone was waiting for more tariff announcements.
The increase, The Conference Board said, was due to rising costs caused by tariff passthrough and the spike in oil prices following the start of the war in Iran, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28.
The cost of living also continues to dominate survey-takers’ write-in responses.
The Conference Board’s Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson, said, “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds.
“As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”
The Conference Board’s survey also gives insight into consumer confidence by demographic, as well as consumers’ purchasing plans and their views on the likelihood of a recession.
In March, respondents under 35 remained the most optimistic, while those 55 and over were the least optimistic.
By income level, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to decline for six of the eight income groups. Only consumers earning $25,000 to $34,999, and those earning more than $125,000 were a little more optimistic.
Confidence by political affiliation was unchanged.
Republicans remained the most optimistic about the economy, while consumer confidence was lower among Independents and lowest among Democrats.
When asked about their plans to make major purchases in the next six months, more consumers answered “no” in March.
Among those who do plan to purchase big-ticket items, used cars—which continue to be preferred over new cars—furniture, TVs, and smartphones were the most popular items within their respective categories.
Consumers who said they planned to spend more on services over the next six months also went from “yes” and “maybe” in February to “no” in March.
The Conference Board noted that utilities and healthcare landed in the top five among future spending categories, leapfrogging hotels/motels for personal travel.
“This displacement is consistent with the dip in overall vacation plans over the next six months, and consumers’ continued complaints about rising electricity and healthcare costs,” The Conference Board said.
It also noted that while domestic travel plans remained buoyant in March, fewer survey-takers said they plan to travel out of the country, likely due to conflicts abroad.
Technology company Toluna conducts The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 24.
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