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Consumer Confidence Edges Up in February
Consumers were somewhat less worried about the future, though concerns about rising prices and politics remained.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in February from an upwardly revised 89 in January.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence edged up in February as future fears eased slightly, though it remained below the heights reached in late 2024.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index increased to 91.2 in February from an upwardly revised 89 in January.
“Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Four of five components of the index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak (112.8) achieved in November 2024.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, slipped to 120 in February from an upwardly revised 121.8 in January.
Consumers were more pessimistic about current business conditions, while views on employment improved slightly.
The labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—rose less than 1 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 72 in February from an upwardly revised 67.2 in January. (The preliminary cutoff date for The Conference’s Board February survey was Feb. 17, meaning the results came in before the start of the current conflict in Iran.)
It marked the 13th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now were less negative, while income expectations were more positive.
By demographic, confidence on a six-month moving average basis was up in February for consumers under 35, which continues to be the most optimistic group. For those 35 and older, confidence declined.
By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to slip for nearly everyone.
By political affiliation, consumer confidence was up for Republican and Independent voters in February after a decline in January. Democrats, however, were less optimistic.
“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Peterson said. “Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds.”
Mentions of trade, politics, and immigration were up in February, while labor market mentions declined, said The Conference Board.
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The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index increased to 91.2 in February from an upwardly revised 89 in January.
“Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Four of five components of the index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak (112.8) achieved in November 2024.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, slipped to 120 in February from an upwardly revised 121.8 in January.
Consumers were more pessimistic about current business conditions, while views on employment improved slightly.
The labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—rose less than 1 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 72 in February from an upwardly revised 67.2 in January. (The preliminary cutoff date for The Conference’s Board February survey was Feb. 17, meaning the results came in before the start of the current conflict in Iran.)
It marked the 13th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now were less negative, while income expectations were more positive.
By demographic, confidence on a six-month moving average basis was up in February for consumers under 35, which continues to be the most optimistic group. For those 35 and older, confidence declined.
By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to slip for nearly everyone.
By political affiliation, consumer confidence was up for Republican and Independent voters in February after a decline in January. Democrats, however, were less optimistic.
“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Peterson said. “Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds.”
Mentions of trade, politics, and immigration were up in February, while labor market mentions declined, said The Conference Board.
As for inflation, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations remained elevated, though saw little change.
Respondents said they believe interest rates will continue to be at higher levels over the next 12 months.
Looking at the stock market, most respondents said they expect stock prices to be higher 12 months from now, although the share of respondents who feel that way was down slightly month-over-month.
When asked about their view of their family’s current financial situation, respondents were more pessimistic after an “unexpected surge” in positive sentiment in January.
Their expectations for their family’s future financial situation also were more pessimistic.
As for a recession, the percentage of respondents who think a U.S. recession is “very likely” over the next 12 months declined, while those saying it is “not likely” rose.
Looking at their shopping plans, more consumers said they plan to buy big-ticket items over the next six months.
The most popular items included used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones.
As for home buying, expectations were little changed in February but continued to fall on a six-month basis. However, the share of survey-takers who said they plan to buy a home in the near future is still higher than it was last year.
Plans to spend on services over the next six months dipped slightly in February but remained at a “healthy” level.
Plans to go on a vacation in the next six months also declined in February, both for domestic and international travel.
“Consumer spending trends in 2026 remain focused on cheap thrills and necessary services, and away from expensive and highly discretionary activities,” The Conference Board said.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for March are scheduled to be released on March 31.
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