Recorded WebinarsMar 03, 2023
Watch: Jewelry Trends in 2023SurveysMar 30, 2023
NRF Says Brick-and-Mortar Stores Remain ‘Primary Point of Purchase’
The statement came as the National Retail Federation released its retail sales forecast for 2023.
The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, a reflection of an economy that is slowing down.
Washington, D.C.—As already witnessed in the first couple months of the year, retail growth is slowing, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels, and physical stores continue to be a cornerstone of consumers’ purchase process.
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
Related stories will be right here …
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
NRF announced its annual sales forecast during the third annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” event, held virtually. The event brings together retail executives from major brands, economists and consumer experts to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer and the retail industry.
For the full year, NRF predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 1 percent, about half of the increase witnessed in 2022, reflecting a slower economy overall.
Inflation is falling but will remain between 3 percent and 3.5 percent for all goods and services this year.
Job growth is expected to slow in the coming months, trending in lockstep with the slowing economy and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed 4 percent before the year is over.
Overall, economic activity has held up well despite “restrictive monetary policy” enacted to curb inflation, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the ninth consecutive time last week to just under 5 percent.
He acknowledged, however, that recent development in the financial markets and the banking sector—the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank—muddy the outlook for the year ahead.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” he said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
Recorded WebinarsFeb 21, 2023
Watch: What to Expect in 2023
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
TrendsApr 03, 2025
Tallulah Willis Imbues Antique Engagement Ring With MagicThe 4-carat, old mine brilliant-cut diamond engagement ring was co-designed by Willis and New York City-based brand Karina Noel.
SourcingApr 03, 2025
Canadian Mine Produces 158-Carat Yellow Diamond Rio Tinto unearthed the diamond at its Diavik mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories.
CollectionsApr 03, 2025
Buccellati to Open Immersive Exhibition in MilanThe multisensory experience, open April 8-13, will feature the brand’s silver creations among dream-like scenes of natural landscapes.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
Policies & IssuesApr 03, 2025
Jewelers of America to Hold Webinar on TariffsThe virtual event will take place April 7 at 3 p.m.
Weekly QuizApr 03, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 02, 2025
Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Tarallo’ Collection Expansion Is a ZooThe pieces in “Animali Tarallo” portray animals from stingrays to elephants through portraits and interpretations of their patterns.
MajorsApr 02, 2025
Neiman Marcus’ Dallas Flagship Will Remain Open, For NowParent company Saks Global said the iconic location will be open through the holiday season as it decides what to do with the space.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
SourcingApr 02, 2025
Winston’s Collection of Natural Color Diamonds Now on Display in D.C. Ronald Winston, son of Harry Winston, donated the diamonds to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.
Events & AwardsApr 02, 2025
Punchmark to Host Client WorkshopThe educational event will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, this May.
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 YearsThe independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in FloridaThe debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor ShortageThe roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry CollectionThe “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in DiamondsDiamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With AcquisitionThe Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH WatchesThe longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry StoreAuthorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in EnglishLotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ RingThe ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand AmbassadorThe Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent JewelerThe family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco WatchesThe “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.
