Recorded WebinarsMar 03, 2023
Watch: Jewelry Trends in 2023SurveysMar 30, 2023
NRF Says Brick-and-Mortar Stores Remain ‘Primary Point of Purchase’
The statement came as the National Retail Federation released its retail sales forecast for 2023.
The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, a reflection of an economy that is slowing down.
Washington, D.C.—As already witnessed in the first couple months of the year, retail growth is slowing, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels, and physical stores continue to be a cornerstone of consumers’ purchase process.
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
Related stories will be right here …
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
NRF announced its annual sales forecast during the third annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” event, held virtually. The event brings together retail executives from major brands, economists and consumer experts to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer and the retail industry.
For the full year, NRF predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 1 percent, about half of the increase witnessed in 2022, reflecting a slower economy overall.
Inflation is falling but will remain between 3 percent and 3.5 percent for all goods and services this year.
Job growth is expected to slow in the coming months, trending in lockstep with the slowing economy and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed 4 percent before the year is over.
Overall, economic activity has held up well despite “restrictive monetary policy” enacted to curb inflation, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the ninth consecutive time last week to just under 5 percent.
He acknowledged, however, that recent development in the financial markets and the banking sector—the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank—muddy the outlook for the year ahead.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” he said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
Recorded WebinarsFeb 21, 2023
Watch: What to Expect in 2023
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
WatchesOct 29, 2026
Bucherer Opens Rolex Boutique in Washington StateThe Rolex-owned retailer’s new 4,700-square-foot store’s façade honors the Pacific Northwest’s evergreen forests.
TrendsOct 29, 2026
Amanda's Style File: All Treats, No Tricks Get into the Halloween spirit with this roundup of 13 spooky jewels.
MajorsOct 29, 2026
Gesswein Hires Longtime Bench Jeweler, Educator Ann CahoonCahoon was appointed strategic account and educational program manager at Gesswein, which recently joined Continental Buying Group.
Brought to you by
A Diamond Is Forever Launches 2026 Holiday Campaign Championing Natural DiamondsA Diamond Is Forever's holiday campaign reimagines natural diamond icons for a new generation celebrating individuality.
MajorsOct 29, 2026
Amanda Seyfried Stars In Tiffany & Co.’s Holiday CampaignTiffany & Co.’s latest ambassador makes her debut in its “Love Is a Gift” holiday campaign.
Weekly QuizOct 29, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
EditorsOct 28, 2026
These Wicked Jewels Will Cast a Spell on YouFor her annual Halloween story, Senior Editor Lenore Fedow highlights bewitching jewels fit for a witch that go from day to unholy night.
CrimeOct 28, 2026
Man In Florida Who Swallowed Tiffany & Co. Earrings ConvictedJaythan Gilder was found guilty of robbery and grand theft after stealing and then ingesting nearly $800,000 worth of Tiffany & Co. jewelry.
Brought to you by
Open an Account, Get $50 Off Your First Order. No Code Needed.Built on Relationships. Refined by Craft.
MajorsOct 28, 2026
Stuller’s Holiday Campaign Lets the ‘Magic of the Moment’ ShineThe holiday campaign includes key jewelry trends, a curated holiday gift guide, and resources to help jewelers prepare for holiday shoppers.
SourcingOct 27, 2026
De Beers Celebrates the Holidays With New ‘Desert Diamonds’ CampaignThe “Icons” holiday campaign spotlights four classic diamond jewelry styles reimagined in “Desert Diamond” tones.
IndependentsOct 27, 2026
Solomon Brothers Acquires Mervis Diamond ImportersSolomon Brothers, which has three stores in the Metro Atlanta area, said it may continue to acquire other independent jewelers.
IndependentsOct 27, 2026
Gabriel & Co. Supports Charity Partner DKMS With Gala, New JewelsThe fine jewelry brand raised $2.3 million at its annual gala that supports the nonprofit’s fight against blood cancer and blood disorders.
Events & AwardsOct 27, 2026
JFC Announces 2027 ‘Facets’ HonoreesThe annual fundraising event is slated for June 6, 2027, at The Venetian Resort in Las Vegas.
CollectionsOct 26, 2026
Bliss Lau’s ‘Vantage’ Point Is the Hawaiian HorizonIn her “Vantage” collection, Lau explores heritage, identity, and inner strength through designs featuring blue-green Guatemalan jade.
MajorsOct 26, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Takes Consumers Behind the ScenesThe jeweler gave the public backstage tours of its flagship store and its design and innovation workshop as part of LVMH’s open house.
Events & AwardsOct 26, 2026
Support JFC’s ‘Monster Mash Challenge,’ If You DareVote for which jewelry professional should dress up as a monster to support Jewelers for Children’s annual Halloween fundraiser.
MajorsOct 23, 2026
PGI USA Set to Close at Year’s EndThe closure is part of a global restructuring that also includes PGI winding down its operations in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
SourcingOct 23, 2026
Rachel Chalchinsky’s ‘Survivor Tribute’ RingThe ring, our Piece of the Week, was designed by eight-year breast cancer survivor Rachel Chalchinsky of Color Source Gems.
TechnologyOct 23, 2026
JA Unveils New Website, LogoThe website offers enhanced member benefit access, industry directories, educational resources, a job board, and access to the MJSA Journal.
FinancialsOct 23, 2026
Kering’s Jewelry Sales Up Double Digits in Q3Boucheron and Pomellato had a strong third quarter, with Kering looking at jewelry as an increasingly important part of its portfolio.
CrimeOct 22, 2026
Jeweler Shot and Killed in His Suburban Cincinnati Store Tara Sinchuri was the owner of Everest Jewels in Fairfield, Ohio, and a father of three. He was found dead in his store on Tuesday.
MajorsOct 22, 2026
Neiman Marcus Has Gifts for the Jewelry Lover Who Has EverythingBespoke experiences from Buccellati and Verdura are on the retailer’s 2026 “Fantasy Gifts” list.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2026
JIS Fall 2026 Reports Record-Breaking Attendance The number of participants at the fall show was up 12 percent.
CollectionsOct 22, 2026
Billie Eilish, Finneas Co-Design Collection for John HardyThe Academy and Grammy award-winning siblings have collaborated with John Hardy on a new jewelry line inspired by their personal style.
PodcastsOct 21, 2026
Episode 10: This Episode Is Haunted Diana Singer shared the stories of two “cursed” diamonds on this month’s podcast, which was inexplicably riddled with technical issues.
IndependentsOct 21, 2026
Gardner-Collier Jewelry to Close After 9 Decades in BusinessThe family-owned jeweler has three locations across Missouri and Iowa.
SourcingOct 21, 2026
Venetia Mines Final Carats Ahead of 2-Year ShutdownThe De Beers-owned diamond mine in South Africa is being put on ice as part of a round of previously announced cost-cutting measures.
