Recorded WebinarsMar 03, 2023
Watch: Jewelry Trends in 2023SurveysMar 30, 2023
NRF Says Brick-and-Mortar Stores Remain ‘Primary Point of Purchase’
The statement came as the National Retail Federation released its retail sales forecast for 2023.
The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, a reflection of an economy that is slowing down.
Washington, D.C.—As already witnessed in the first couple months of the year, retail growth is slowing, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels, and physical stores continue to be a cornerstone of consumers’ purchase process.
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
Related stories will be right here …
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
NRF announced its annual sales forecast during the third annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” event, held virtually. The event brings together retail executives from major brands, economists and consumer experts to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer and the retail industry.
For the full year, NRF predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 1 percent, about half of the increase witnessed in 2022, reflecting a slower economy overall.
Inflation is falling but will remain between 3 percent and 3.5 percent for all goods and services this year.
Job growth is expected to slow in the coming months, trending in lockstep with the slowing economy and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed 4 percent before the year is over.
Overall, economic activity has held up well despite “restrictive monetary policy” enacted to curb inflation, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the ninth consecutive time last week to just under 5 percent.
He acknowledged, however, that recent development in the financial markets and the banking sector—the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank—muddy the outlook for the year ahead.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” he said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
Recorded WebinarsFeb 21, 2023
Watch: What to Expect in 2023
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
Events & AwardsDec 20, 2024
Two Participants Complete Inaugural Ella Klein InternshipJamie Dunton and Gabriella Botelho are the first graduates of the program, created by the WJA Foundation and Julius Klein Diamonds.
CollectionsDec 20, 2024
Piece of the Week: Retrouvaí’s Ring for CharityIn the spirit of giving, Retrouvaí will donate $4,000 from the sale of this ring to the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank.
IndependentsDec 19, 2024
Michigan’s DeVries Jewelers Unveils New Location in Time for the HolidaysCo-owner Dan DeVries shared what it’s like moving into a space triple the size of its old store and how it feels to be a “real jeweler” now.
Brought to you by
De Beers Group Launches Holiday Campaign for Natural Diamonds‘Forever Present’ campaign revives the iconic A Diamond is Forever tagline and celebrates the diamond dream.
CollectionsDec 19, 2024
State Property Transforms Spain’s Generalife Gardens into JewelryAlong with the latest “Gardens” collection, the brand has released limited-edition designs offering more indulgent pieces.
Weekly QuizDec 19, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeDec 19, 2024
Alleged Jewelry Thieves Attempt Rowboat EscapeThe man and woman are accused of stealing jewelry from a shipping container then trying to flee by paddling a small boat out into a bay.
SourcingDec 19, 2024
The Second-Largest Diamond Ever Found Now Has a Name The 2,488-carat diamond recovered from a mine in Botswana has been dubbed “Motswedi” while its 1,094-carat sibling is “Seriti.”
Brought to you by
Advocacy and Excellence: How Jewelers of America Is Committed to Elevating Our Industry For over a century, Jewelers of America has been the voice of the industry and valuable resource to jewelers across the country.
SourcingDec 19, 2024
Gemfields Reports Record Ruby Auction Results Despite Challenges at SourceThe average price per carat hit a record high for the miner, which said it remains unaffected by the conflict in Mozambique.
AuctionsDec 18, 2024
Alexandrite Ring Sells for Record-Setting $1.9M at Sotheby’sThe nearly 17-carat stone made history for the color-change gem that, according to the auction house, is experiencing a “notable surge” in the market.
WatchesDec 18, 2024
Historic Titanic Pocket Watch Winds Its Way Back to Tiffany & Co. More than a century after survivors gifted a Tiffany timepiece to the captain of the ship that rescued them, the jeweler has reclaimed it.
TechnologyDec 18, 2024
Picchiotti Utilizes AI in ‘Spotlight’ Video CampaignThe videos highlight how pieces from the “Xpandable” and “Reversible Xpandable” collections put the wearer in the spotlight.
IndependentsDec 18, 2024
Industry Veteran Steve Feldman Set to RetireFeldman reflected on 45 years in the jewelry industry and clarified that it’s not a total retirement.
Events & AwardsDec 17, 2024
Chanel to Receive Gem Award for High Jewelry ExcellenceThe luxury brand is being honored for excellence in high jewelry design in its “Haute Joaillerie Sport” collection.
SourcingDec 17, 2024
Frank Circelli, Founder of Gem Shopping Network, Dies at 75Circelli was a pioneer in the world of TV shopping who is remembered for his passion for gemstones and his big personality.
AuctionsDec 17, 2024
Blue Diamond Fetches $8.8M at Christie’sThe nearly 6-carat stone headlined the recent jewelry auction, which also featured Mica Ertegun’s jewelry.
CrimeDec 17, 2024
‘Black Bin Crew’ Robbers Get 14-16 Years in Prison The three men, who got their nickname because they’d toss the jewelry they stole into black plastic bins, were arrested back in August.
TrendsDec 16, 2024
Marion Fasel’s New Book Delves Into the History of Engagement Rings“The History of Diamond Engagement Rings: A True Romance” is a 128-page small-format book containing more than 165 images.
WatchesDec 16, 2024
Take a Look Inside the New Rolex Boutique on Rodeo DriveGearys opened a 6,200-square-foot Rolex store with a design that pays homage to the brand’s connection to the ocean.
GradingDec 16, 2024
GCAL By Sarine Expands 8X to 2 More Fancy Shapes The diamond cut grade is now available for marquise- and pear-shaped diamonds.
SourcingDec 16, 2024
Diamonds Do Good Announces 2025 Award RecipientsDDG said the honorees’ business practices embody a commitment to positive social impact, industry innovation, and community empowerment.
TrendsDec 13, 2024
Selena Gomez Said ‘Forever Begins Now’ to Marquise Diamond Engagement RingEstimates on the size and value of the solitaire diamond, which is mounted on a diamond pavé-set yellow gold band, vary.
TrendsDec 13, 2024
Piece of the Week: Martin Katz’s Tanzanite Drops These half-moon tanzanite earrings totaling 25 carats are part of a special trunk show taking place this weekend in Dallas.
Recorded WebinarsDec 13, 2024
Watch: The Highs and Lows of 2024The National Jeweler editors recap the top news, the best jewels, and their favorite stories of the year.
AuctionsDec 12, 2024
Tom Brady’s Watches Top $4M at Sotheby’s AuctionThe highest-grossing lot of the sale was the retired QB’s Rolex Paul Newman Daytona “John Player Special.”
SourcingDec 12, 2024
Grizzly Emerald Auction Garners $22.4MRecent expansion initiatives at the Zambian emerald mine have shown strong production numbers, said Grizzly founder Abdoulaye Ndiaye.
MajorsDec 12, 2024
Mark Henry Appoints New Director of SalesCarrie Forman joins the brand to guide it into the next phase of growth with major and independent retailers in the U.S. and abroad.
