Recorded WebinarsMar 03, 2023
Watch: Jewelry Trends in 2023SurveysMar 30, 2023
NRF Says Brick-and-Mortar Stores Remain ‘Primary Point of Purchase’
The statement came as the National Retail Federation released its retail sales forecast for 2023.
The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, a reflection of an economy that is slowing down.
Washington, D.C.—As already witnessed in the first couple months of the year, retail growth is slowing, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels, and physical stores continue to be a cornerstone of consumers’ purchase process.
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
Related stories will be right here …
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
NRF announced its annual sales forecast during the third annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” event, held virtually. The event brings together retail executives from major brands, economists and consumer experts to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer and the retail industry.
For the full year, NRF predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 1 percent, about half of the increase witnessed in 2022, reflecting a slower economy overall.
Inflation is falling but will remain between 3 percent and 3.5 percent for all goods and services this year.
Job growth is expected to slow in the coming months, trending in lockstep with the slowing economy and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed 4 percent before the year is over.
Overall, economic activity has held up well despite “restrictive monetary policy” enacted to curb inflation, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the ninth consecutive time last week to just under 5 percent.
He acknowledged, however, that recent development in the financial markets and the banking sector—the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank—muddy the outlook for the year ahead.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” he said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
Recorded WebinarsFeb 21, 2023
Watch: What to Expect in 2023
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsFeb 21, 2025
Piece of the Week: Jade Ruzzo’s ‘Tennessee’ Oval Drop EarringsHeidi Gardner, an SNL cast member, wore the smoky quartz earrings on the “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” red carpet on Sunday.
SourcingFeb 21, 2025
Zambia Lifts 15% Export Duty on Gemstones, Metals The reversal comes less than two months after the Zambian government reinstated the tax in an effort to bring in more money.
MajorsFeb 21, 2025
24 Karat Club of New York Names New PresidentThe organization also announced its newly elected officers and directors.
Brought to you by
Get Ready for the JA New York Spring ShowThis year will feature a new MJSA Showcase and partnership with Piazza Italia.
SourcingFeb 20, 2025
Anglo Writes Down Value of De Beers by $2.9B As anticipated, Anglo took another impairment charge on the diamond miner and marketer, which saw revenue sink 23 percent in 2024.
Weekly QuizFeb 21, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingFeb 20, 2025
Harry Winston’s Son Donates Fancy Red Diamond to the SmithsonianRonald Winston is giving the 2.33-carat “Winston Red” to the Smithsonian, 67 years after his father donated the Hope Diamond.
SourcingFeb 20, 2025
GJEPC Names New Chairman, Vice ChairmanKirit Bhansali, a partner in Smital Gems and chairman of India Jewellery Park, will take on the role of chairman.
Brought to you by
3 Ways to Capitalize on America’s Newfound Love of Colored GemsColored stones are stepping into a jewelry spotlight typically reserved for diamonds—are you ready to sell color?
IndependentsFeb 20, 2025
IJO Elects 4 New Board MembersAlisha Cornett, Nic Faini, Eric Stevens, and Seth Shipley have joined the organization’s board of directors for a three-year term.
CrimeFeb 19, 2025
Brink’s to Pay $42M After Admitting to Illegally Transporting MoneyThe company has to pay the Justice Department and FinCEN for violating the Bank Secrecy Act, the U.S.’s main anti-money laundering law.
SourcingFeb 19, 2025
Diamond Mining Company CEO Steps Down Amid Sales Slump, LayoffsPetra Diamonds Ltd. CEO Richard Duffy resigned as the diamond miner reported a 30 percent drop in sales to start its fiscal year.
ColumnistsFeb 19, 2025
The Smart Lab: Maximizing Your Jewelry Brand on PinterestPinterest is a potential gold mine for jewelry brands, Emmanuel Raheb writes, provided they follow these five tips.
MajorsFeb 19, 2025
Cartier Opens New Store Inside LAXThe boutique is the French luxury brand’s first airport store on the West Coast.
CollectionsFeb 19, 2025
Swarovski’s NYC Flagship Celebrates Ariana Grande CollabThe store’s facade now features the iconic swan logo and campaign images of the “Wicked” star.
Policies & IssuesFeb 18, 2025
New Customs Requirements for Diamond Imports: What We KnowBeginning in April, companies importing diamonds into the United States will have to list the country in which the diamonds were mined.
AuctionsFeb 18, 2025
A Menagerie of Fabergé Coming to Sotheby’sAround 30 whimsical Fabergé animal carvings will go up for auction at Sotheby’s Geneva in May.
SourcingFeb 18, 2025
Celine Assimon Stepping Down as CEO of De Beers JewellersAssimon will be leaving at the end of February after nearly five years with De Beers.
CollectionsFeb 18, 2025
Tabayer Debuts Its First Men’s Jewelry SelectionsDesigns from the brand’s “Oera” collection have been reimagined with modern masculinity in mind.
SourcingFeb 14, 2025
Navneet Gems Now Offering Unheated Montana SapphiresThe wholesale collection features material from the Rock Creek mine in a variety of colors.
CollectionsFeb 14, 2025
Carolyn Rafaelian Partners with ‘Long Island Medium’ StarThe “Divinely Guided” collection, created in collaboration with Theresa Caputo, features symbols that celebrate the power of connection.
CollectionsFeb 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Lorraine West’s Diamond ‘Open Heart’ RingShow some love on Valentine’s Day with this 14-karat yellow gold ring that features pavé diamonds.
CrimeFeb 13, 2025
Macy’s Employee Foils $1.5M Jewelry Theft The employee confronted the thief, causing the suspect to flee and leave behind the suitcases full of jewelry.
SourcingFeb 13, 2025
Namibian Diamond Co. Suspends CEO, COO After Deadly Heist Namib Desert Diamonds also put its security manager on leave following last month’s robbery that left one employee dead.
Events & AwardsFeb 13, 2025
AGTA Announces Buyer’s Choice Award Winners for Spectrum, Cutting EdgeAGTA recently concluded its 2025 GemFair event in Tucson and is already gearing up for next year’s show, set for Feb. 2-6, 2026.
CollectionsFeb 13, 2025
Royal Chain Releases Its Spring 2025 CatalogMore than 400 new pieces are featured in the supplier’s latest catalog.
TrendsFeb 13, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Hearts for Valentine’s DayThis curation celebrates love with heart-shaped jewelry of all shapes and sizes.
Policies & IssuesFeb 13, 2025
Jewelers Relief Fund Reopened to Aid Victims of LA Fires The fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.
