Recorded WebinarsMar 03, 2023
Watch: Jewelry Trends in 2023SurveysMar 30, 2023
NRF Says Brick-and-Mortar Stores Remain ‘Primary Point of Purchase’
The statement came as the National Retail Federation released its retail sales forecast for 2023.
The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, a reflection of an economy that is slowing down.
Washington, D.C.—As already witnessed in the first couple months of the year, retail growth is slowing, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels, and physical stores continue to be a cornerstone of consumers’ purchase process.
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
Related stories will be right here …
These are among the takeaways from the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast, released Wednesday.
The Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association said it expects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas and restaurant spending) to grow 4-6 percent to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.
That is down from 7 percent growth in 2022 ($4.94 trillion in total sales), though still hovering above the pre-pandemic average annual of 3.6 percent sales growth.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve customers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow 10-12 percent year-over-year reaching $1.41 trillion-$1.43 trillion, outpacing overall growth.
Yet NRF noted, “While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process.
“As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.”
NRF announced its annual sales forecast during the third annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” event, held virtually. The event brings together retail executives from major brands, economists and consumer experts to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer and the retail industry.
For the full year, NRF predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 1 percent, about half of the increase witnessed in 2022, reflecting a slower economy overall.
Inflation is falling but will remain between 3 percent and 3.5 percent for all goods and services this year.
Job growth is expected to slow in the coming months, trending in lockstep with the slowing economy and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed 4 percent before the year is over.
Overall, economic activity has held up well despite “restrictive monetary policy” enacted to curb inflation, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the ninth consecutive time last week to just under 5 percent.
He acknowledged, however, that recent development in the financial markets and the banking sector—the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank—muddy the outlook for the year ahead.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” he said. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
Recorded WebinarsFeb 21, 2023
Watch: What to Expect in 2023
SurveysFeb 06, 2023
What to Know About Consumers in 2023More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsAug 28, 2026
Dolly Parton Would Have Loved This Butterfly Necklace This Buddha Mama butterfly is our Piece of the Week honoring the legend, who embraced the beautiful insect as her symbol.
SourcingAug 28, 2026
Gareth Penny to Give Opening Speech at CIBJO Centenary CongressThe former De Beers CEO, and perhaps its next owner, will be a featured speaker at the event, slated for Sept. 4-7 in Italy.
IndependentsAug 28, 2026
Day’s Jewelers Honored With 3 Workplace AwardsThe employee-owned jeweler was named a “Best Place to Work” in Maine, New Hampshire, and for women.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
CollectionsAug 27, 2026
Pandora Expands ‘Talisman’ Collection as Lawsuit Continues The second iteration of the jewelry collection was inspired by the zodiac and the four elements: earth, water, air and fire.
Weekly QuizAug 27, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingAug 27, 2026
OFAC Renews License Allowing Import of ‘Grandfathered’ Russian Diamonds General License 104B supersedes General License 104A, which was set to expire on Sept. 1.
CrimeAug 27, 2026
Customs Seizes Nearly 900 Pieces of Counterfeit JewelryThe package, intercepted in Indianapolis, contained fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., and Van Cleef and Arpels jewelry.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
IndependentsAug 27, 2026
Jessica McCormack to Open First West Coast StoreThe new location in Costa Mesa, California, marks the brand’s second store in the United States and fourth standalone location worldwide.
FinancialsAug 27, 2026
Movado’s Q2 Sales Up As Younger Consumers Take Interest in WatchesThe fashion watch category was once threatened by the Apple Watch, but consumers are now opting for new wearables, said Movado’s CEO.
Lab-GrownAug 26, 2026
AGTA Now Requiring Members to Call Lab-Grown Gems ‘Synthetic’The association added the requirement to its revised "Code of Ethics" and released the 17th edition of its “Gemstone Information Manual.”
TrendsAug 26, 2026
Boucheron’s New Campaign Celebrates Its ‘Question Mark’ NecklacesThe campaign highlights the asymmetrical high jewelry necklace style that the jeweler first created in 1879.
Events & AwardsAug 26, 2026
Harry Winston Exhibition to Open in ShanghaiIt will explore the life of “The King of Diamonds” and showcase more than 165 creations from the brand.
CrimeAug 25, 2026
Florida Woman Scammed Out of $1.5M in Jewelry, Precious MetalsTwo suspects have been arrested in connection with the complex phone scam.
ColumnistsAug 25, 2026
Proof Before Purchase: The Gen Z Way to BuyIn her first column for National Jeweler, Jennifer Shaheen asks jewelers if they know how to connect with the next generation of consumers.
Events & AwardsAug 25, 2026
SSEF Opens 2026 Applications for Gemology Education ScholarshipsThe annual awards cover tuition for an on-site educational course at the Swiss lab, as well as flights and lodging.
TrendsAug 25, 2026
Brent Neale Celebrates Blackberry Farm’s Anniversary With JewelryThe jeweler partnered with the Tennessee resort to honor its 50th anniversary with limited-edition blackberry pendants and earrings.
EditorsAug 24, 2026
Q&A: Reeds Jewelers VP Genna Zimmer on 80 Years in BusinessThe third-generation jeweler shared how the North Carolina retailer is celebrating this milestone and the love story that started it all.
Events & AwardsAug 24, 2026
Rio Grande, MetalWerx Host Argentium Silver WorkshopThe class, led by renowned metalsmith Cynthia Eid, highlighted Argentium silver as an alternative to gold amid high prices.
Events & AwardsAug 24, 2026
JIS Miami Opens Fall 2026 RegistrationThe show is slated for Oct. 16-19 at the Miami Beach Convention Center.
CollectionsAug 24, 2026
Francesca Villa Honors Napoleon, His Empresses In New CapsuleThe “Empresses” capsule uses 19th-century medals depicting Napoleon, Joséphine, and Marie-Louise across five one-of-a-kind pieces.
SurveysAug 21, 2026
These Are 2026’s Hottest Retailers, Says NRFThe retailers at the top of the list offer affordable products and fun, discovery-fueled experiences.
WatchesAug 21, 2026
Bremont Names Former Vacheron Constantin Exec CMODaniel Bing was formerly the marketing director for the Americas at Vacheron Constantin.
CollectionsAug 21, 2026
Bijules, Kamyen Serve Up ‘Topspin’ Tennis Bracelet Ahead of US OpenIn our Piece of the Week, the designers reimagine the tennis bracelet with green enamel wrapped around a strand of “Desert Diamonds.”
PodcastsAug 20, 2026
Episode 8: Diamond Industry Update With David Bonaparte & Ronnie VanderLindenThe industry veterans join the podcast to discuss diamond marketing, the FTC Jewelry Guides, and lobbying for lower tariffs.
TechnologyAug 20, 2026
A New AI-Powered Gemstone Identification App Is HereFounder Vik Westermann said the app is a “starting point” to inspire people to work with appraisers and gem labs, not replace them.
AuctionsAug 20, 2026
Storied Unicorn Brooch Up for Auction Gallops to New Home The Verdura brooch, which belonged to the late Virginia Fortune Ryan Ogilvy, was sold to a private collector in Asia.
