Consumer Confidence Falls Again in December

New York—U.S. consumer confidence continued to deteriorate in December, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines as consumers remained worried about the job and labor markets and business conditions.

The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 89.1 in December from an upwardly revised 92.9 in November.

November’s reading was revised due in part to the federal government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12. The responses collected after the end of the shutdown were more positive than those collected while it was ongoing, said The Conference Board.

“Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 116.8 in December from 126.3 in November.  

The view of current business conditions was negative for the first time since September 2024, a month marked by a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes, noted The Conference Board.

The perception of current employment conditions also dropped. 

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, was steady at 70.7 in December.

It marks the eleventh consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.

The expectations for business conditions six months from now “nosedived” in November, it said, and while mostly reversed in December, the view is still negative.

Expectations for the labor market were even more pessimistic, as was the outlook for household incomes.

As for the write-in responses, consumers continued to focus on the factors affecting the economy, including prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and politics.

Notably, December saw an increase in mentions of immigration, war, and topics related to personal finances, including interest rates, taxes, income, banks, and insurance.

“The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates,” said Peterson.

Peterson noted the Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates on Dec. 10 for a third time this year, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.

Looking at demographic groups, consumer confidence was down for all ages, political affiliations, and nearly every income level.

Consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older. 

Confidence among all generations was down in December, with only the Silent Generation (those born between 1928 and 1945) trending more hopeful. Millennials and Gen Z respondents remained the most optimistic of all generations. 

By income levels, confidence was down for all brackets except those earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. 

By political affiliations, confidence was down for all groups, including Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

The percentage of consumers expecting interest rates to rise was overall higher, with a decline in the proportion expecting lower rates.

Consumers’ median and average 12-month inflation expectations both retreated in December after an uptick in November. 

The balance of consumers’ expectations for stock prices 12 months from now—higher minus lower—was at its most positive level since January, said the Conference Board.

Respondents’ outlook on their family financial situations was mixed.

Views of their family’s current financial situation was negative for the first time in nearly four years.

However, views of their family’s future financial situation was at its most positive level since January.

Consumers also weighed in on the possibility of a recession.

The percentage of consumers who said a recession is “not likely” increased to about 20 percent, while those who said it is “very likely” continued receding.

Those who said a recession is “somewhat likely” make up the largest share of respondents. That segment grew again.

The percentage of those who think the U.S. is already in a recession also inched higher.

The recession expectations are not included when calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.

Looking at consumer spending, respondents seemed more cautious about buying big-ticket items over the next six months, said the Conference Board.

Buying plans for autos dipped again in December. 

Expectations for purchasing new cars continued to slip, on a six-month moving average basis, while plans to buy used cars continued to rise.

Homebuying expectations were also down, and so were plans to buy household appliances, PCs, laptops, and video game consoles.

By contrast, future purchasing plans for smartphones, tablets, and digital cameras continued to climb upward on a six-month moving average basis. 

Used cars, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular within their categories for future purchases.

“On balance, consumer spending trends in 2025 moved towards cheap thrills and necessary services and away from expensive and highly discretionary activities,” said the Conference Board. 

In December, plans to spend on services over the next six months were little changed from November.

However, those who said “yes” to buying more services remained healthy, it said.

Anticipated spending on restaurants, streaming, personal care, and utilities rose month-over-month in December, though future purchases of other discretionary services categories softened. 

The most popular categories for planned services spending over the next six months still included restaurants, bars, take-out; streaming, internet, mobile services; beauty and personal care; utilities; and health care. 

The number of respondents planning to take a vacation continued to “spiral downward” this month, said the Conference Board.

While plans for domestic travel over the next six months still surpass international travel plans, planning for both types of travel fell.

The Consumer Confidence survey results for January are scheduled to be released on Jan. 27, 2026.