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Consumer Confidence Slips for Second Consecutive Month
It hit a four-month low in January due to concerns about the job market, though consumers remain bullish about the stock market.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined again in January, slipping to 104.1. Consumers surveyed were more pessimistic about the current job market and are concerned about lingering inflation and recent signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow in 2025.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence hit a four-month low in January amid concerns about the job market, inflation, and the anticipation of higher interest rates.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 104.1 in January from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December, the lowest reading for the index since it dipped below 100 in September.
Still, the board noted that while the index might fluctuate month to month, consumer confidence has remained within the same stable, narrow range since 2022.
“January was no exception [to this],” said Dana Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist.
“The index weakened for a second straight month, but still remained in that range, even if in the lower part. All five components of the index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline.”
Consumers polled in January expressed more pessimism over the current state of the economy, with 18 percent saying business conditions were “good,” down from 21 percent in December, and 15 percent describing them as “bad,” unchanged from December.
Their outlook on the labor market also faltered, with 33 percent of consumers describing jobs as “plentiful” in January, down from 37 percent in December, and more consumers (17 percent in January compared with 15 percent in December) saying jobs were “hard to get.”
Overall, the Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, plunged nearly 10 points in January to 134.3.
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The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 104.1 in January from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December, the lowest reading for the index since it dipped below 100 in September.
Still, the board noted that while the index might fluctuate month to month, consumer confidence has remained within the same stable, narrow range since 2022.
“January was no exception [to this],” said Dana Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist.
“The index weakened for a second straight month, but still remained in that range, even if in the lower part. All five components of the index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline.”
Consumers polled in January expressed more pessimism over the current state of the economy, with 18 percent saying business conditions were “good,” down from 21 percent in December, and 15 percent describing them as “bad,” unchanged from December.
Their outlook on the labor market also faltered, with 33 percent of consumers describing jobs as “plentiful” in January, down from 37 percent in December, and more consumers (17 percent in January compared with 15 percent in December) saying jobs were “hard to get.”
Overall, the Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, plunged nearly 10 points in January to 134.3.
The Expectations Index, which is based on consumers’ six-month outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, also fell in January, though not as sharply as the Present Situation Index.
It dropped about 3 points to 83.9, but remained above 80, the threshold that normally signals a recession is ahead.
Consumers were less optimistic across the board, with 19 percent saying they expect business conditions to worsen, up from 17 percent in December, and 20 percent anticipating that fewer jobs will be available six months from now, unchanged from December.
The percentage of consumers who said they expected their incomes to increase in the near future declined month-over-month, from 19 percent in December to 18 percent in January.
While consumer confidence slipped in January, there were positive aspects of The Conference Board’s January survey, which ended on Jan. 20 and was conducted online by technology company Toluna.
Consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months remained low and they are still bullish on the stock market, though a little less so than at the end of 2024.
More than half (53 percent) of consumers polled in January said they expect stock prices to increase in the year ahead, with only 24 percent anticipating they will decline.
More consumers than not said they planned to buy big-ticket items over the next six months, and they continued to express interest in spending more money on services in the months ahead, especially on dining out and streaming service subscriptions.
Consumers’ perceived likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months remained low and they are still bullish on the stock market, though a little less so than at the end of 2024.
More than half (53 percent) of consumers polled in January said they expect stock prices to increase in the year ahead, with only 24 percent anticipating they will decline.
More consumers than not said they planned to buy big-ticket items over the next six months, and they continued to express interest in spending more money on services in the months ahead, especially on dining out and streaming service subscriptions.
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