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Consumer Confidence Drops in November
Inflations, tariffs, and politics—including the government shutdown—were among consumers’ top concerns last month.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November with consumers worried about higher prices, tariffs, and the U.S. government shutdown, which ended Nov. 18.
New York—Consumer confidence took a dive in November amid ongoing worries about inflation, tariffs and trade, and the state of politics in the United States.
According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index stood at 88.7 in November, down nearly 7 points from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October. (The baseline for the index is 100.)
In determining the index, The Conference Board asks consumers how they feel about both their present situation, shown in the Present Situation Index, and their six-month outlook on business, income, and labor market conditions, represented in the Expectations Index.
Both indexes were down in November.
The Present Situation Index fell 4.3 points to 126.9, with the percentage of respondents who described current business conditions as “bad” increasing from 15 percent to 17 percent month-over-month.
The percentage of respondents who said jobs were “plentiful” declined slightly month-over-month, from 29 percent to 28 percent, while the percentage of consumers who described jobs as “hard to get” held steady at 18 percent.
The Expectations Index experienced a larger drop, sliding 8.6 points to 63.2, with consumers showing more pessimism regarding near-future job availability and income prospects.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey also includes space for write-in responses.
The November responses were slightly more negative than those shared in October, with many of the same concerns coming up, said Dana M. Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist.
“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” she said.
The shutdown began Oct. 1 and ended Nov. 12. It lasted a total of 43 days, the longest in U.S. history.
The cutoff date for preliminary results for The Conference Board’s survey was Nov. 18, meaning that some of the responses were submitted during the period when the government was still shut down or had just reopened.
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According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index stood at 88.7 in November, down nearly 7 points from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October. (The baseline for the index is 100.)
In determining the index, The Conference Board asks consumers how they feel about both their present situation, shown in the Present Situation Index, and their six-month outlook on business, income, and labor market conditions, represented in the Expectations Index.
Both indexes were down in November.
The Present Situation Index fell 4.3 points to 126.9, with the percentage of respondents who described current business conditions as “bad” increasing from 15 percent to 17 percent month-over-month.
The percentage of respondents who said jobs were “plentiful” declined slightly month-over-month, from 29 percent to 28 percent, while the percentage of consumers who described jobs as “hard to get” held steady at 18 percent.
The Expectations Index experienced a larger drop, sliding 8.6 points to 63.2, with consumers showing more pessimism regarding near-future job availability and income prospects.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey also includes space for write-in responses.
The November responses were slightly more negative than those shared in October, with many of the same concerns coming up, said Dana M. Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist.
“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” she said.
The shutdown began Oct. 1 and ended Nov. 12. It lasted a total of 43 days, the longest in U.S. history.
The cutoff date for preliminary results for The Conference Board’s survey was Nov. 18, meaning that some of the responses were submitted during the period when the government was still shut down or had just reopened.
While it’s not surprising that U.S. consumer confidence was down last month given the government shutdown and ongoing conversations around affordability, the uncertain feelings have not translated to slower sales, at least not yet.
In its annual post-Black Friday survey, the National Retail Federation said a record number of consumers shopped either online or in stores during the weekend following Thanksgiving.
In-store shopping was up 3 percent year-over-year, while online shopping increased 9 percent.
The survey also noted that Small Business Saturday (the Saturday following Thanksgiving) attracted 62.7 million people shopping in-store, up from 61.1 million last year.
Last week, Sherry Smith, director of business development at The Edge Retail Academy, shared sales data for independent jewelers on LinkedIn.
Independent jewelers had a strong start to the season, with gross sales up 7 percent year-over-year and average ticket jumping 16 percent, though the number of units sold was down 8 percent.
“Average retail rose across every category, with colored stones leading the way, a clear sign of growing momentum behind differentiated and emotionally meaningful product stories,” Smith wrote.
“Independent jewelers who lean into storytelling, trust, and emotional value are winning, even as foot traffic tightens.”
Earlier this week, industry analyst Edahn Golan, co-managing partner at jewelry industry data analytics company Tenoris, shared similar results on LinkedIn.
Golan wrote that sales for all specialty jewelers rose 3 percent year-over-year in November and are up nearly 6 percent year to date.
Like Smith, he noted that the number of units sold was down, falling 10 percent, but the average retail price was up, increasing nearly 15 percent.
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