SurveysSep 26, 2025
Online Shopping, Influencers to Drive Holiday Spending, Mastercard SaysSurveysNov 10, 2025
5 Things Retailers Should Know About Holiday Shoppers This Year
The National Retail Federation is bullish on the holidays, forecasting retail sales to exceed $1 trillion this year.
The National Retail Federation is predicting retail holiday sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 could surpass $1 trillion this year.
Washington, D.C.—The National Retail Federation is predicting holiday sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history as consumers are expected to pull back in certain areas in order to make the holidays merry for family and friends.
In its annual holiday forecast, released last week, the NRF predicted retail sales will grow between 3.7 and 4.2 percent, totaling $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion in the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.
While topping $1 trillion is a milestone, year-over-year sales growth is not expected to be quite as strong. Last year, holiday sales rose 4.3 percent year-over-year to $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the organization’s news release.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
On a media call Thursday, NRF experts discussed the holiday season in detail, from how shoppers are feeling to the impact of tariffs and the government shutdown.
Here are the top five takeaways.
Consumer sentiment is weak, but shoppers likely will spend anyway.
Consumers are facing a variety of headwinds heading into the holiday season, from inflation and tariffs to the government shutdown and geopolitical issues.
All this has put a damper on consumer sentiment, which has fallen for the past six months, as per the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
However, how consumers feel and how they spend don’t always align.
“[Consumer] sentiment, by historic standards, continues to be very, very low,” Shay said on the call. “And yet, they continue to spend and power the economy.”
In its annual holiday forecast, released last week, the NRF predicted retail sales will grow between 3.7 and 4.2 percent, totaling $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion in the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.
While topping $1 trillion is a milestone, year-over-year sales growth is not expected to be quite as strong. Last year, holiday sales rose 4.3 percent year-over-year to $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the organization’s news release.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
On a media call Thursday, NRF experts discussed the holiday season in detail, from how shoppers are feeling to the impact of tariffs and the government shutdown.
Here are the top five takeaways.
Consumer sentiment is weak, but shoppers likely will spend anyway.
Consumers are facing a variety of headwinds heading into the holiday season, from inflation and tariffs to the government shutdown and geopolitical issues.
All this has put a damper on consumer sentiment, which has fallen for the past six months, as per the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
However, how consumers feel and how they spend don’t always align.
“[Consumer] sentiment, by historic standards, continues to be very, very low,” Shay said on the call. “And yet, they continue to spend and power the economy.”
This incongruous behavior has been present for the last five years, he said, since the lows of the pandemic.
A lot of factors play into consumer behavior, but when it comes to the holidays, many shoppers aren’t willing to sacrifice the merriment even when times are tough.
Holidays have taken on an “outsized” importance in recent years, said Shay, with spending around the winter holidays and other holidays nearing or reaching record levels.
Shay described holiday spending on loved ones as “having a moat around it,” insulated from whatever else may be happening in the world.
Money will be siphoned from other categories to cover holiday expenses.
Unfortunately, holiday cheer is not a form of currency, so shoppers will have to adjust their budgets in order to check off everyone on their “nice” list.
Shay said a CEO remarked to him recently that somehow, every year, Santa Claus always comes.
“I think that really captures the way the holiday season goes. People save for it. They plan for it. They prioritize it. And we think that’s going to happen again this year,” said Shay.
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews added on the call that as prices of goods rise, consumers will find savings elsewhere, noting some consumers are pulling back on recreational spending and going to restaurants.
Former Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz stepped down in July after around 15 years in the role but has remained with the NRF as its senior economic advisor, and plans to retire this year, said Shay.
“We expect them to continue to prioritize spending on loved ones and families. And if that costs more, they’re going to save in other areas of the economy,” Mathews said.
A separate NRF holiday survey found consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items.
This marks the second highest per-person spend in the survey’s 23-year history, said NRF.
Price-sensitive shoppers are looking for a deal.
Speaking of savings, this year’s holiday shoppers are, of course, looking for a deal.
Consumers are price-sensitive and have adjusted their month-to-month spending, noted Shay.
“We know that they’re thinking about things much more deliberately. They’re trading down, looking for less expensive options, and trying to find value wherever they can find it,” he said.
Mathews noted that this year, a higher percentage of consumers are waiting until Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend to shop.
“We fully expect businesses and retailers to respond to that and make sure those consumers have the opportunity to buy sale and promotional items,” Mathews said.
The government shutdown and tariffs will impact holiday spending.
Due to the federal government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, many federal workers are out of work or still technically employed but not receiving a paycheck.
Federal food and nutrition benefits, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), are mired in uncertainty.
For those traveling for Thanksgiving, the cancellation of flights could complicate their plans.
The shutdown will impact the holiday season and beyond as the loss of private-sector income hurts consumer demand, said the NRF.
“While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts,” the organization said in the press release.
As for tariffs, the uncertainty and “stop-and-start nature” has proved to be a challenge for retailers and shoppers alike.
Retailers have gotten creative to try to avoid passing on price increases, noted Shay, but that’s not always possible.
While some retailers could absorb the costs, others have had to raise prices, which can deter deal-oriented shoppers.
Mathews added that low-income households are in an especially difficult position, noting that wages have been decreasing faster for those households and that any excess pandemic savings likely have been spent.
Seasonal hiring is at its lowest level in 15 years.
Retailers are expected to hire seasonal workers to meet demand, but not nearly as many as last year.
The NRF is forecasting that retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, which it said is in line with a slower-paced labor market.
In 2024, there were 442,000 seasonal hires.
Mathews noted that some of that hiring may have been pulled forward earlier in the years to staff holiday buying events in October.
The ongoing tariff situation also is a factor in hiring as retailers monitor spending and demand to determine whether or not to bring on seasonal help.
From tariffs to the government shutdown, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the holiday season, but the NRF appears confident in the strength of consumer spending.
“We think we have good clarity on the holiday season. Nevertheless, we know that forecasting is increasingly challenging in this environment,” said Shay.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsApr 30, 2026
Peter Smith: A Sleazy Salesman and the Case for Regret Avoidance Smith uses a comment he overheard in the grocery store to remind retailers that their job is to inspire buying behavior, not just sell.
MajorsApr 30, 2026
Claire’s New Summer Campaign Is a Sensory Wonderland for Gen Alpha“A Girl SMR at Claire’s” celebrates girlhood through the five senses with stacked jewelry, slime toys, scented accessories, and ASMR.
AuctionsApr 30, 2026
Vintage Cartier Watch Crashes Through Records, Selling for $2MBelieved to be one of three made in 1987, the Cartier London Crash was hot at the “Shapes of Cartier” sale at Sotheby’s Hong Kong.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
CrimeApr 30, 2026
Masked Group Uses Hammers, Pepper Spray in Texas Jewelry Store RobberyOfficials are looking for a group that robbed Marc Robinson Jewelers at an outlet mall in Round Rock, Texas, in broad daylight on April 21.
Weekly QuizApr 30, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Supplier BulletinApr 30, 2026
OROAREZZO 2026: The B2B Event for Italian Excellence in Goldsmith, Jewelry and Silver ManufacturingSponsored by OROAREZZO International Jewelry Exhibition
MajorsApr 29, 2026
The Thought Process Behind the Mother's Day Email Opt-OutSome retailers are taking a nuanced approach to marketing what can be a difficult holiday for many.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
IndependentsApr 29, 2026
Dick Abbott to Retire From The EdgeThe Edge has announced its new CEO, as well as a new partnership with an investment firm focused on founder-led software businesses.
SourcingApr 29, 2026
De Beers’ Production Rises, Market Remains ‘Challenged’De Beers’ diamond production was up 17 percent in Q1, boosted by increased output at its mines in South Africa and Canada.
AuctionsApr 29, 2026
This'll Be the Day You Own John Wayne's RingA signet ring belonging to the Western film star of Hollywood’s Golden Age will be up for auction at Elmwood’s next month.
Policies & IssuesApr 28, 2026
Tariff Refunds: How to File, What to Expect Importers can submit claims now to receive money back for the IEEPA tariffs they’ve paid, with refunds expected to take up to 90 days.
IndependentsApr 28, 2026
This North Carolina Jeweler Is Passing the TorchThe owners of Gregory Jewelers in Morganton, North Carolina, are heading into retirement.
SourcingApr 28, 2026
Doug Hucker Retires From ICAThe colored gemstone industry leader is heading into retirement after four years as the association’s CEO.
SourcingApr 28, 2026
NDC Hires Tapestry Exec to Head Global Marketing Susie Dewey joins the Natural Diamond Council as its new chief marketing officer.
AuctionsApr 27, 2026
12 Years Later, the ‘Ocean Dream’ Diamond Resurfaces at Christie’sThe largest known fancy vivid blue-green diamond could fetch more than $12 million at its second auction appearance.
ColumnistsApr 27, 2026
Stop Treating Mother’s Day Like an AfterthoughtEmmanuel Raheb says jewelers need to start marketing early and make it easy for customers to pick a gift for mom.
IndependentsApr 27, 2026
Longnecker Jewelry Celebrates 30 YearsIn honor of the milestone, the Nebraska jeweler has debuted Leslie & Co., its new in-house jewelry brand.
MajorsApr 27, 2026
JBT Re-Elects Jeff Corey as Board ChairThe trade organization, which held its annual elections earlier this year, also added five new board members.
TechnologyApr 24, 2026
TwentyFour’s Digital-Age Locket Is a Virtual VaultThe “Vault” charm, our Piece of the Week, expands on the memories that can be stored in a locket by connecting to your phone.
Events & AwardsApr 24, 2026
Hamptons Jewelry Show to Return in JulyThe open-to-the-public luxury jewelry and timepiece show, in its second year, is slated for July 23-26.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Meet the Real Moms of Day’s JewelersThe jeweler’s Mother’s Day campaign highlights the women who work there—mothers, grandmothers, women who want to be mothers, and dog moms.
Supplier BulletinApr 23, 2026
JM® Shipping Solution: Smarter Shipping for High-Value GoodsSponsored by Jewelers Mutual
Lab-GrownApr 23, 2026
Charles & Colvard May Sell Assets for $1.5MThe proposed agreement follows the moissanite maker’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filing last month.
AuctionsApr 23, 2026
John Jacob Astor IV’s Titanic Pocket Watch Fetches $1MThe Patek Philippe for Tiffany & Co. timepiece Astor brought aboard the ill-fated ship sold for double its estimate at a Freeman’s auction.
CollectionsApr 23, 2026
Adam Neeley’s High Jewelry Collection Steps Into Salvador Dalí’s GardenThe “Dalí’s Garden” collection was inspired by a surreal dream Neeley had after cooking a recipe from Salvador Dalí’s 1973 cookbook.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Windsor Jewelers Names New Buying DirectorNatalie Feanny has been appointed to the role.
