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Online Shopping, Influencers to Drive Holiday Spending, Mastercard Says
Holiday sales growth is expected to slow as consumers grapple with inflation and tariff-related uncertainty.
A recent Mastercard survey forecasted holiday sales growth of around 4 percent this year.
New York—The 2025 holiday season will be defined by “values and vibes,” according to a recent Mastercard survey, as thrifty shoppers look for a deal and gifting inspiration from influencers.
Holiday shoppers, who will be up against tariffs and inflation, likely will be drawn to influencer apparel brands and health gadgets, predicted Mastercard.
Retail sales, excluding autos, are forecast to grow 3.6 percent year-over-year—an increase driven in part by higher prices—in the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24.
U.S. holiday spending was up 4.1 percent last year.
The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) looked at its SpendingPulse insights to make several predictions for the upcoming holiday season.
These three things will boost retail sales this holiday season.
First, online shopping is expected, once again, to be a popular avenue for gift buying.
E-commerce retail sales, not including autos, are forecast to grow 7.9 percent year-over-year. In-store sales are forecast to grow 2.3 percent.
Secondly, inflation is expected to drive overall sales growth more than it did last year, due in part to tariffs resulting in higher prices.
Lastly, the calendar shifts will affect the holiday season.
Thanksgiving will be Nov. 27 this year, the second-latest date it can be, which shortens the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas to 28 days.
This may bolster online sales in early December and prompt retailers to start promotions earlier than usual, Mastercard said.
Shoppers are looking for value.
Mastercard said the health of the labor market and how much tariffs drive up prices will influence consumers’ decisions.
Due to this economic uncertainty, shoppers will be searching for value.
Holiday shoppers, who will be up against tariffs and inflation, likely will be drawn to influencer apparel brands and health gadgets, predicted Mastercard.
Retail sales, excluding autos, are forecast to grow 3.6 percent year-over-year—an increase driven in part by higher prices—in the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24.
U.S. holiday spending was up 4.1 percent last year.
The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) looked at its SpendingPulse insights to make several predictions for the upcoming holiday season.
These three things will boost retail sales this holiday season.
First, online shopping is expected, once again, to be a popular avenue for gift buying.
E-commerce retail sales, not including autos, are forecast to grow 7.9 percent year-over-year. In-store sales are forecast to grow 2.3 percent.
Secondly, inflation is expected to drive overall sales growth more than it did last year, due in part to tariffs resulting in higher prices.
Lastly, the calendar shifts will affect the holiday season.
Thanksgiving will be Nov. 27 this year, the second-latest date it can be, which shortens the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas to 28 days.
This may bolster online sales in early December and prompt retailers to start promotions earlier than usual, Mastercard said.
Shoppers are looking for value.
Mastercard said the health of the labor market and how much tariffs drive up prices will influence consumers’ decisions.
Due to this economic uncertainty, shoppers will be searching for value.
“The degree to which tariff hikes directly impact the consumer remains uncertain, as some retailers may choose to partially absorb these costs in order to remain competitive on price and volume.” — Mastercard SpendingPulse survey
The labor market currently is supporting consumer spending, but there are signs it is weakening, like low hiring rates across major sectors.
“A low firing rate is partially tempering the effects of the hiring slowdown and consumers continue to benefit from wage growth largely keeping up with, or running above, price inflation in most cases,” said the survey.
While overall wage growth has stayed solid, it has moderated for those in lower-paid sectors, it said.
For higher-income consumers, their wealth is growing, which means more freedom to spend during the holidays.
Notably, wealthier consumers tend to own stocks and the S&P 500 is up 18 percent year-over-year, as per the survey.
Tariffs bring all the fun of fruitcake to the holidays.
Like fruitcake, most consumers are not excited to see tariffs at the holiday party.
“The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is not yet obvious on a wide scale, but there are early signs that they could affect many gift categories,” the survey said.
Many popular holiday items, including gifts like toys and jewelry, and decorations, like Christmas trees and ornaments, are facing higher tariffs than last year, a fact those who work in the jewelry industry are well aware of this year.
“The degree to which tariff hikes directly impact the consumer remains uncertain, as some retailers may choose to partially absorb these costs in order to remain competitive on price and volume,” said the survey.
Larger retailers that have been able to stock up for the holidays ahead of the tariff increases will likely have the competitive edge, it said.
There are three ways consumers could respond to tariff-related price increases, according to the survey.
They might just buy the items anyway and boost overall nominal sales growth.
Secondly, they could opt for cheaper goods.
Lastly, they might spend more on goods and services that are not as affected by tariffs.
Facing higher prices also could mean that shoppers will concentrate their spending to promotional periods to make the most of holiday sales.
Gift cards will be a safe and popular choice for gift givers.
Buying a gift card during the holidays is nothing new, but it’s expected to be a particularly popular option this year.
“MEI expects a higher than normal use of gift cards this holiday season, reflecting the risk of tariff-related inflation for many goods,” it said.
“Gift cards don’t eliminate inflation, but they can help gift givers be generous while navigating rising prices.”
Gift card purchases are seasonal, with around 30 percent of all gift card spending happening in December and January, said the survey.
Notably, the use of gift cards means more of the spending will spill over into next year.
The data suggests that gift cards are disproportionately spent on goods, with toy stores as well as health, beauty, and medical supply stores seeing high gift card spending in December and January.
Social media influencers will help determine this year’s top gifts.
Social media stars will be especially influential this holiday season, especially among Gen Z consumers.
“Influencers act as style leaders, turning niche brands and items into must-haves almost overnight, using short-form videos as real-time advertising,” said the survey.
To better understand how social media platforms impact spending decisions, MEI looked at Mastercard data on viral teen and tween fashion brands.
Over the past six months, spending on these brands has grown 25 percent year-over-year, while spending on apparel overall has risen about 5 percent, as per SpendingPulse data.
“The growth of influencer-driven teen fashion is outpacing that of the broader cohort about fivefold. Holiday gift giving will likely make this trend even more prominent,” said the survey.
Of the 15 counties that accounted for the largest share of influencer-inspired apparel purchases, 10 were home to big college towns, including Nassau and Westchester counties in New York, which have a number of colleges and universities.
The counties that are home to Ohio University (Athens County) and Indiana University (Monroe County) led the list.
Fitness is in fashion this season.
Health products and services are expected to be popular gifts this season as more consumers prioritize their well-being.
Wellness gadgets, especially wearable devices with advanced health monitoring capabilities, are especially popular.
Spending on new fitness brands, like those who sell wearables or new outdoor fitness venues, has been growing at around 30 percent since the middle of 2023. In comparison, spending was up only 5 percent at traditional fitness clubs.
The number of credit and debit cards used to buy from new fitness brands at least once a month has quadrupled since 2019, while traditional fitness clubs have seen 30 percent growth in the same period.
These brands are popular during the holidays, with about 23 percent of total spending on these brands taking place during the holidays last year, up from 18 percent in 2018.
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