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Consumer Confidence Hits 5-Month Low in September
Respondents were concerned about job availability and rising prices.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell by about four points to 94.2 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell again in September, dropping to its lowest level since April.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 94.2 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in August.
Notably, consumer sentiment about the present situation registered its largest drop in a year, according to Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 125.4 from an upwardly revised 132.4 in August.
“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings,” she said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 73.4 from a downwardly revised 74.7 in August.
It marks the eighth consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index,” said Guichard.
Confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old but declined for consumers over the age of 35.
By income group, confidence was mixed, said The Conference board, with no clear pattern.
Confidence stayed above its April low for all income groups, except for households making between $25,000 to $35,000 and those making more than $200,000.
By political party, confidence improved slightly for Democrats and Republicans, but “dropped substantially” for Independents.
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The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 94.2 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in August.
Notably, consumer sentiment about the present situation registered its largest drop in a year, according to Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 125.4 from an upwardly revised 132.4 in August.
“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings,” she said.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 73.4 from a downwardly revised 74.7 in August.
It marks the eighth consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index,” said Guichard.
Confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old but declined for consumers over the age of 35.
By income group, confidence was mixed, said The Conference board, with no clear pattern.
Confidence stayed above its April low for all income groups, except for households making between $25,000 to $35,000 and those making more than $200,000.
By political party, confidence improved slightly for Democrats and Republicans, but “dropped substantially” for Independents.
Looking at the write-in responses, references to prices and inflation rose in September, “regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy,” said Guichard.
References to tariffs declined but were still high and tied to concerns about higher prices.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations declined slightly to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent in August.
“This is still notably above 5 percent, the level at the end of 2024,” added Guichard.
Write-in mentions of jobs and employment rose to a level not seen since August 2024, with the comments skewing negative, particularly regarding the current situation.
Consumers’ view of stock prices improved slightly in September, with fewer respondents expecting to see stock prices decrease over the next 12 months.
The share of respondents expecting to see stock prices rise has been flat since July.
Fewer consumers expected to see interest rates rise, while more expected them to decline.
Consumers’ views of their family’s current and future financial situation weakened in September.
Their view of the current situation for this metric recorded the largest one-month drop since The Conference Board began collecting this data in July 2022.
The share of consumers who said that a recession is “very likely” over the next 12 months rose slightly in September to the highest level since May.
Notably, more respondents thought the economy was already in recession.
Plans to purchase cars, both new and used, declined in September. However, plans to buy homes hit a four-month high.
Purchasing plans for big-ticket items recorded little change, but there was variation across appliances.
Plans to buy TVs and dryers saw the largest increase in September, while refrigerators posted the largest decline.
Plans to buy electronics were mostly up, with smartphones leading the way. Notably, Apple debuted its new iPhone 17 on Sept. 9.
Notably, intentions to buy services were down, with declines seen across most categories but especially travel-related services.
Vacation planning fell to its lowest level since April, with fewer plans to travel abroad driving the decline.
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