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October Brings Little Change to Consumer Confidence
Consumers are feeling more optimistic about their present situation while the short-term future remains a little scary.
Consumer confidence essentially held steady this month, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. It stood at 94.6, only a one-point drop from September’s upwardly revised 95.6. The baseline for the index, which was established in 1985, is 100.
New York—Consumer confidence slipped in October, as consumers’ slightly more optimistic feelings about the present were canceled out by the fact that they feel a bit spooked about the future.
The Consumer Confidence Index, released by The Conference Board at the end of each month, stands at 94.6, down just 1 point from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September.
The two main measures that feed into the consumer confidence gauge—the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index—moved in different directions this month.
The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers feel about current business and labor market conditions, improved, increasing 1.8 points to 129.3.
More survey-takers said business conditions were “good” this month (20 percent) instead of “bad” (15 percent), and more described jobs as “plentiful” (28 percent) rather than “hard to get” (18 percent).
However, the Expectations Index, which asks consumers about their six-month outlook on income, business, and the labor market, was down nearly 3 points to 71.5.
About 23 percent of survey-takers said they expect business conditions to worsen, greater than the 19 percent who expect it to improve in the short term.
Their short-term outlook on the labor market also is more pessimistic, with 28 percent expecting fewer jobs to be available and 16 percent expecting there to be more jobs.
Leading the survey’s write-in mentions this month were prices and inflation, which continue to be the main issues affecting consumers’ views of the economy, said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist with The Conference Board.
She added that the number of write-in responses that reference tariffs continued to decline in October while mentions about the U.S. government shutdown, which started Oct. 1, began to creep in.
“The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months,” Guichard said. “References to U.S. politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”
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The Consumer Confidence Index, released by The Conference Board at the end of each month, stands at 94.6, down just 1 point from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September.
The two main measures that feed into the consumer confidence gauge—the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index—moved in different directions this month.
The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers feel about current business and labor market conditions, improved, increasing 1.8 points to 129.3.
More survey-takers said business conditions were “good” this month (20 percent) instead of “bad” (15 percent), and more described jobs as “plentiful” (28 percent) rather than “hard to get” (18 percent).
However, the Expectations Index, which asks consumers about their six-month outlook on income, business, and the labor market, was down nearly 3 points to 71.5.
About 23 percent of survey-takers said they expect business conditions to worsen, greater than the 19 percent who expect it to improve in the short term.
Their short-term outlook on the labor market also is more pessimistic, with 28 percent expecting fewer jobs to be available and 16 percent expecting there to be more jobs.
Leading the survey’s write-in mentions this month were prices and inflation, which continue to be the main issues affecting consumers’ views of the economy, said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist with The Conference Board.
She added that the number of write-in responses that reference tariffs continued to decline in October while mentions about the U.S. government shutdown, which started Oct. 1, began to creep in.
“The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months,” Guichard said. “References to U.S. politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”
The Conference Board’s survey also breaks down data by age, income, and political affiliation and asks consumers about their plans for spending in certain categories.
Confidence declined among consumers under 35 years old and, to a lesser extent, those over 55, while consumers between ages 35 and 54 felt more confident about the economy in October.
The highest-earning consumers (those earning more than $200,000 a year) enjoyed the largest surge in confidence—unsurprising since they are the least likely to be concerned about inflation—while confidence declined among consumers earning less than $75,000.
Consumer confidence also was down among Democrats and Republicans (albeit slightly for the latter), while it improved among Independents.
On a category-by-category basis, The Conference Board noted that plans to buy big-ticket items, such as appliances and electronics, have started picking up after weakening earlier in the year.
After pulling back in September, consumers said that they plan to spend more on services—mainly pet care, streaming and internet, and motor vehicle servicing.
More consumers also said they have plans to travel, a sector that may be poised for a recovery, The Conference Board said.
Technology company Toluna conducts the Consumer Confidence Survey for The Conference Board every month. It is done online, drawing from a panel of more than 36 million U.S. consumers.
The cutoff date for October’s results was Oct. 19.
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