SurveysMar 27, 2025
Consumer Confidence Falls in March Amid ‘Gloomy’ OutlookSurveysApr 03, 2025
2025 Retail Sales to Grow More Slowly Amid ‘Uncertainty,’ Says NRF
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales growth to return to pre-pandemic levels as consumers continue to face inflation.
The National Retail Federation outlined its forecast for 2025 as consumers continue to face inflation and instability.
Washington—The National Retail Federation predicts that retail sales will increase year-over-year in 2025 despite consumer uncertainty.
During its fifth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event Wednesday afternoon, the trade organization said it expects retail sales to grow between 2.7 and 3.7 percent year-over-year, reaching $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion.
This year’s forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent, it said.
In 2024, the United States saw annual retail sales increase 3.6 percent to $5.29 trillion.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025, bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion.
That is line with last year, when non-store and online sales grew 8 percent to $1.47 trillion.
GDP growth is expected to decline about 2 percent this year, down from a nearly 3 percent increase in 2024 and reversing the recent trend of GDP growth, the NRF said.
During the event, Shay and other experts referred to the uncertainty around impending tariffs, as the virtual event took place prior to President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs later in the day.
During its fifth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event Wednesday afternoon, the trade organization said it expects retail sales to grow between 2.7 and 3.7 percent year-over-year, reaching $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion.
This year’s forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent, it said.
In 2024, the United States saw annual retail sales increase 3.6 percent to $5.29 trillion.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025, bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion.
That is line with last year, when non-store and online sales grew 8 percent to $1.47 trillion.
GDP growth is expected to decline about 2 percent this year, down from a nearly 3 percent increase in 2024 and reversing the recent trend of GDP growth, the NRF said.
During the event, Shay and other experts referred to the uncertainty around impending tariffs, as the virtual event took place prior to President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs later in the day.
“Consumer spending is not unraveling.” —Jack Kleinhenz, NRF
The looming tariffs have been weighing on consumer confidence, which recorded its fourth consecutive month of decline in March, according to The Conference Board.
Lingering inflation coupled with tariffs anxiety has hurt consumer confidence, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Wednesday, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to an “immediate decline” in consumer spending.
“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” he said.
“While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slow but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”
It’s the data on employment, income, and tariff-induced inflation that supports the NRF’s view of a slowdown in consumer spending, Kleinhenz said, rather than declining consumer sentiment.
Jobs growth is also expected to moderate this year, he said.
With the implementation of tariffs, the NRF said it expects Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation to remain at its current level of around 2.5 percent this year.
The PCE price index tracks inflation and deflation across a range of consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior.
“We are a consumer-led economy and we need to keep that consumer healthy,” said Robert Eddy, CEO of BJ’s Wholesale Club, in an interview with Shay during the virtual event. “And anything that challenges that is a risk.”
Eddy said consumers went through a lot during the pandemic, particularly regarding inflation, and his company has found success by focusing on consistency, predictability, and affordability.
“Like a bodybuilder, the consumer has very little body fat.” —Katherine Cullen, NRF
Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF, compared consumers to bodybuilders.
When inflation first spiked, consumers could absorb the high costs and maintain increased spending levels because they built up their savings during the pandemic.
“Those reserves are starting to run out. Like a bodybuilder, the consumer has very little body fat,” she said. “Most households have burned through their savings and so they’re relying on wages to keep them juiced.”
Over the last several years, wage growth has outpaced inflation, she said, and so consumers could weather higher prices and still maintain their lifestyle. But without their savings to fall back on, consumers are more vulnerable to “economic shocks,” like higher prices, job losses, and reduced wages.
For now, household balance sheets seem to be “in good shape,” the NRF said.
However, it noted delinquencies on auto loans and credit card payments have risen, falling in line with the pre-pandemic trend.
“The consumer credit picture should remain healthy as long as the labor market remains solid,” Kleinhenz said.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
TrendsApr 03, 2025
Tallulah Willis Imbues Antique Engagement Ring With MagicThe 4-carat, old mine brilliant-cut diamond engagement ring was co-designed by Willis and New York City-based brand Karina Noel.
SourcingApr 03, 2025
Canadian Mine Produces 158-Carat Yellow Diamond Rio Tinto unearthed the diamond at its Diavik mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories.
CollectionsApr 03, 2025
Buccellati to Open Immersive Exhibition in MilanThe multisensory experience, open April 8-13, will feature the brand’s silver creations among dream-like scenes of natural landscapes.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
Policies & IssuesApr 03, 2025
Jewelers of America to Hold Webinar on TariffsThe virtual event will take place April 7 at 3 p.m.
Weekly QuizApr 03, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 02, 2025
Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Tarallo’ Collection Expansion Is a ZooThe pieces in “Animali Tarallo” portray animals from stingrays to elephants through portraits and interpretations of their patterns.
MajorsApr 02, 2025
Neiman Marcus’ Dallas Flagship Will Remain Open, For NowParent company Saks Global said the iconic location will be open through the holiday season as it decides what to do with the space.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
SourcingApr 02, 2025
Winston’s Collection of Natural Color Diamonds Now on Display in D.C. Ronald Winston, son of Harry Winston, donated the diamonds to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.
Events & AwardsApr 02, 2025
Punchmark to Host Client WorkshopThe educational event will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, this May.
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 YearsThe independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in FloridaThe debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor ShortageThe roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry CollectionThe “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in DiamondsDiamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With AcquisitionThe Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH WatchesThe longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry StoreAuthorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in EnglishLotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ RingThe ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand AmbassadorThe Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent JewelerThe family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco WatchesThe “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.
