SurveysMar 27, 2025
Consumer Confidence Falls in March Amid ‘Gloomy’ OutlookSurveysApr 03, 2025
2025 Retail Sales to Grow More Slowly Amid ‘Uncertainty,’ Says NRF
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales growth to return to pre-pandemic levels as consumers continue to face inflation.
The National Retail Federation outlined its forecast for 2025 as consumers continue to face inflation and instability.
Washington—The National Retail Federation predicts that retail sales will increase year-over-year in 2025 despite consumer uncertainty.
During its fifth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event Wednesday afternoon, the trade organization said it expects retail sales to grow between 2.7 and 3.7 percent year-over-year, reaching $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion.
This year’s forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent, it said.
In 2024, the United States saw annual retail sales increase 3.6 percent to $5.29 trillion.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025, bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion.
That is line with last year, when non-store and online sales grew 8 percent to $1.47 trillion.
GDP growth is expected to decline about 2 percent this year, down from a nearly 3 percent increase in 2024 and reversing the recent trend of GDP growth, the NRF said.
During the event, Shay and other experts referred to the uncertainty around impending tariffs, as the virtual event took place prior to President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs later in the day.
During its fifth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event Wednesday afternoon, the trade organization said it expects retail sales to grow between 2.7 and 3.7 percent year-over-year, reaching $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion.
This year’s forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent, it said.
In 2024, the United States saw annual retail sales increase 3.6 percent to $5.29 trillion.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025, bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion.
That is line with last year, when non-store and online sales grew 8 percent to $1.47 trillion.
GDP growth is expected to decline about 2 percent this year, down from a nearly 3 percent increase in 2024 and reversing the recent trend of GDP growth, the NRF said.
During the event, Shay and other experts referred to the uncertainty around impending tariffs, as the virtual event took place prior to President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs later in the day.
“Consumer spending is not unraveling.” —Jack Kleinhenz, NRF
The looming tariffs have been weighing on consumer confidence, which recorded its fourth consecutive month of decline in March, according to The Conference Board.
Lingering inflation coupled with tariffs anxiety has hurt consumer confidence, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Wednesday, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to an “immediate decline” in consumer spending.
“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” he said.
“While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slow but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”
It’s the data on employment, income, and tariff-induced inflation that supports the NRF’s view of a slowdown in consumer spending, Kleinhenz said, rather than declining consumer sentiment.
Jobs growth is also expected to moderate this year, he said.
With the implementation of tariffs, the NRF said it expects Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation to remain at its current level of around 2.5 percent this year.
The PCE price index tracks inflation and deflation across a range of consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior.
“We are a consumer-led economy and we need to keep that consumer healthy,” said Robert Eddy, CEO of BJ’s Wholesale Club, in an interview with Shay during the virtual event. “And anything that challenges that is a risk.”
Eddy said consumers went through a lot during the pandemic, particularly regarding inflation, and his company has found success by focusing on consistency, predictability, and affordability.
“Like a bodybuilder, the consumer has very little body fat.” —Katherine Cullen, NRF
Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF, compared consumers to bodybuilders.
When inflation first spiked, consumers could absorb the high costs and maintain increased spending levels because they built up their savings during the pandemic.
“Those reserves are starting to run out. Like a bodybuilder, the consumer has very little body fat,” she said. “Most households have burned through their savings and so they’re relying on wages to keep them juiced.”
Over the last several years, wage growth has outpaced inflation, she said, and so consumers could weather higher prices and still maintain their lifestyle. But without their savings to fall back on, consumers are more vulnerable to “economic shocks,” like higher prices, job losses, and reduced wages.
For now, household balance sheets seem to be “in good shape,” the NRF said.
However, it noted delinquencies on auto loans and credit card payments have risen, falling in line with the pre-pandemic trend.
“The consumer credit picture should remain healthy as long as the labor market remains solid,” Kleinhenz said.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsOct 13, 2026
David Webb Owner Purchases Lugano JewelryThe high-end jewelry retailer was sold to private investment firm Middle West Partners and a group of longtime clients.
Lab-GrownOct 13, 2026
Stephanie Gottlieb Takes Lab-Grown Diamond Collection WholesaleThe jewelry designer has partnered with Sofer Jewelry to distribute her 85-piece lab-grown diamond collection.
IndependentsOct 13, 2026
Retailer Hall of Fame 2026: Sean DunnDunn, this year’s Single-Store Independent inductee, is passionate about innovation and telling the story of natural diamonds.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
AuctionsOct 13, 2026
Christie's Geneva To Auction 'Bulgari Pink' DiamondThe 24-carat fancy intense pink diamond ring could fetch up to $18 million at the November sale.
Weekly QuizOct 08, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsOct 13, 2026
Greenwich St. Jewelers’ New Candle Smells Like HomeThe “Island Jewel” candle honors New York City and Puerto Rico and raises money for the island’s water relief efforts.
TechnologyOct 13, 2026
GemFind Is a New JA Member Benefit Partner The partnership will give JA members access to preferred pricing, exclusive benefits, technology solutions, education, and resources.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
CollectionsOct 09, 2026
Elisa Solomon Collabs With Serendipity 3 on ‘Frozen Hot Chocolate’ CharmThe charm, our Piece of the Week, features brown diamond frozen hot chocolate topped with white diamond whipped cream and a ruby straw.
AuctionsOct 09, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Goes Unsold at UK Jewelry Auction The top lot of Elmwood’s recent fine jewelry sale in London was a 1.84-carat, D color Tiffany & Co. solitaire diamond ring.
WatchesOct 09, 2026
Movado to Sell Majority Stake in Ebel for $66.5MThe watch company agreed to sell a 95 percent interest to a group comprised of F.P. Journe, Chanel, and Swiss watch exec Pierre Jacques.
Policies & IssuesOct 08, 2026
Third Wave of IEEPA Tariff Refunds Begins This round of tariff refunds is for importers that have sued over IEEPA tariffs in the Court of International Trade and won.
CollectionsOct 08, 2026
Brent Neale’s New Collection Goes ‘Back to Basics’It revisits the brand’s most requested silhouettes, from "Pillow"-set necklaces and bracelets to "Signature"-set rings and earrings.
SourcingOct 08, 2026
Ethical Gem Fair Heads Back to BrooklynThe trade-only event includes buying opportunities as well as educational sessions on artisanal mining, the new Paraíba source, and more.
Events & AwardsOct 08, 2026
Pattons Fine Jewelry Sweeps Local Design ContestAra Chanakian, a jeweler at Pattons, took home top honors in every category at Jewelers of Louisiana’s annual jewelry design competition.
AuctionsOct 08, 2026
Reba McEntire’s Jewelry, Watches Head to Julien’s AuctionsThe live charity benefit sale in Nashville will also feature gowns, boots, and other memorabilia from the country music legend.
Supplier BulletinOct 08, 2026
Overnight Mountings’ Bridal Builder Helps Jewelers Turn Custom Design into a Hands-On Selling ExperienceSponsored by Overnight Mountings
Policies & IssuesOct 07, 2026
The Plumb Club Amplifies Its Voice as Geopolitical Pressures MountThe supplier organization recently joined JA and JVC to have more input on political issues affecting the jewelry industry.
CollectionsOct 07, 2026
Blue Nile, Royal Asscher Collection Highlights Natural Diamond BeautyBlue Nile, a Signet Jewelers-owned brand, is now Royal Asscher’s exclusive licensed retailer in North America.
CollectionsOct 07, 2026
4 Standout Pieces in Audemars Piguet’s First High Jewelry Collection “Royal Oak” pays homage to the brand’s most popular watch model using 18-karat gold as well as diamonds, emeralds, and sapphires.
MajorsOct 07, 2026
Empire Safe & Vault Promotes Juan Morales to CEOAs part of the transition, Joseph Nicosia has stepped into the role of COO.
SourcingOct 07, 2026
AGTA Extends Deadline for 2026 Spectrum Awards EntriesParticipants now have until Oct. 14 to complete their submissions.
CrimeOct 06, 2026
6 Charged in Connection to String of New Jersey Smash-and-GrabsThe alleged thieves used crow bars and sledgehammers to smash into jewelry stores across the state.
ColumnistsOct 06, 2026
Sherry Smith: Is the Consumer Really Trading Up?Ahead of the holidays, Smith urges jewelers to take a hard look at who’s buying jewelry, what they’re purchasing, and who’s stopped buying.
SourcingOct 06, 2026
DDG Taps Influencers for ‘My Diamond Does Good’ CampaignIn the new consumer-facing campaign, four fashion and lifestyle creators share the stories behind their natural diamond pieces.
MajorsOct 06, 2026
Frederick Goldman Names COO, CMOFGI President John Orrico is also leaving the company after more than 13 years.
Events & AwardsOct 06, 2026
JIS Fall Returns to MiamiThe 2026 edition will feature presentations on alternative materials and design trends, as well as pop-up activations on the show floor.
