Surveys

2025 Retail Sales to Grow More Slowly Amid ‘Uncertainty,’ Says NRF

SurveysApr 03, 2025

2025 Retail Sales to Grow More Slowly Amid ‘Uncertainty,’ Says NRF

The National Retail Federation expects retail sales growth to return to pre-pandemic levels as consumers continue to face inflation.

Stock image of people shopping in a mall
The National Retail Federation outlined its forecast for 2025 as consumers continue to face inflation and instability.
Washington—The National Retail Federation predicts that retail sales will increase year-over-year in 2025 despite consumer uncertainty. 

During its fifth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event Wednesday afternoon, the trade organization said it expects retail sales to grow between 2.7 and 3.7 percent year-over-year, reaching $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion.

This year’s forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent, it said.

In 2024, the United States saw annual retail sales increase 3.6 percent to $5.29 trillion. 

“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025, bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. 

“However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”

Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion. 

That is line with last year, when non-store and online sales grew 8 percent to $1.47 trillion.

GDP growth is expected to decline about 2 percent this year, down from a nearly 3 percent increase in 2024 and reversing the recent trend of GDP growth, the NRF said. 

During the event, Shay and other experts referred to the uncertainty around impending tariffs, as the virtual event took place prior to President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs later in the day.

“Consumer spending is not unraveling.” —Jack Kleinhenz, NRF 

The looming tariffs have been weighing on consumer confidence, which recorded its fourth consecutive month of decline in March, according to The Conference Board.

Lingering inflation coupled with tariffs anxiety has hurt consumer confidence, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Wednesday, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to an “immediate decline” in consumer spending.

“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” he said.

“While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slow but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”

It’s the data on employment, income, and tariff-induced inflation that supports the NRF’s view of a slowdown in consumer spending, Kleinhenz said, rather than declining consumer sentiment.

Jobs growth is also expected to moderate this year, he said.

With the implementation of tariffs, the NRF said it expects Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation to remain at its current level of around 2.5 percent this year.

The PCE price index tracks inflation and deflation across a range of consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior.

 Related stories will be right here … 

“We are a consumer-led economy and we need to keep that consumer healthy,” said Robert Eddy, CEO of BJ’s Wholesale Club, in an interview with Shay during the virtual event. “And anything that challenges that is a risk.”

Eddy said consumers went through a lot during the pandemic, particularly regarding inflation, and his company has found success by focusing on consistency, predictability, and affordability.

“Like a bodybuilder, the consumer has very little body fat.” —Katherine Cullen, NRF

Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF, compared consumers to bodybuilders. 

When inflation first spiked, consumers could absorb the high costs and maintain increased spending levels because they built up their savings during the pandemic.

“Those reserves are starting to run out. Like a bodybuilder, the consumer has very little body fat,” she said. “Most households have burned through their savings and so they’re relying on wages to keep them juiced.”

Over the last several years, wage growth has outpaced inflation, she said, and so consumers could weather higher prices and still maintain their lifestyle. But without their savings to fall back on, consumers are more vulnerable to “economic shocks,” like higher prices, job losses, and reduced wages.

For now, household balance sheets seem to be “in good shape,” the NRF said.

However, it noted delinquencies on auto loans and credit card payments have risen, falling in line with the pre-pandemic trend.

“The consumer credit picture should remain healthy as long as the labor market remains solid,” Kleinhenz said.

The Latest

Pope Francis
Policies & IssuesMay 14, 2025
Here’s What Happened to Pope Francis’ Ring

Before Pope Leo XIV was elected, a centuries-old procedure regarding the late pontiff’s ring was followed.

1998 Cosmograph Daytona, Ref.16516 Rolex
AuctionsMay 14, 2025
Custom Rolex Pulled From Sotheby’s Sale

The one-of-a-kind platinum Rolex Cosmograph Daytona was estimated to fetch up to $1.7 million.

Jeweler Constance Polamalu at Bloomstone, a store that specializes in lab-grown diamonds
Lab-GrownMay 14, 2025
State of Diamonds: What’s Next for Lab-Grown Diamonds?

While the product has entrenched itself in the market, retailers and consultants are assessing the next phase of the category’s development.

antique_Vegas_2024_by_headshot_stories_9454.jpg
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the Globe

Gain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.

Surveillance footage Tiffany & Co. Seattle robbery
CrimeMay 14, 2025
Seattle Detectives Seek Public’s Help in Tiffany & Co. Robberies

The police are trying to identify the man suspected of robbing two Tiffany & Co. locations in the area.

Weekly QuizMay 08, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Jeff Corey, new chairperson of the board for the Jewelers Board of Trade
MajorsMay 14, 2025
Jeff Corey Elected Chair of JBT Board

The well-known Maine jeweler takes over for Brian Fleming and will serve a one-year term.

Foundrae Ingot Pendant
Policies & IssuesMay 14, 2025
Foundrae Donates $11K to Ethical Metalsmiths

The donation was the result of the brand’s annual Earth Day Ingot event.

Supplier Spotlight -Recorded-Webinar.png
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest Addition

Supplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA

Eiseman Jewels ribbon cutting ceremony
IndependentsMay 13, 2025
Eiseman Jewels’ Renovated Dallas Store Is Bigger and Better

Located in NorthPark Center, the revamped store is nearly 2,000 square feet larger and includes the first Tudor boutique in Dallas.

Diamond Council of America
MajorsMay 13, 2025
DCA Announces New Learning Platform, Course Updates

The nonprofit has made updates to the content in its beginner and advanced jewelry sales courses.

Malyia McNaughton and Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez
MajorsMay 13, 2025
BIJC Launches New Education Fund

BIJC President Malyia McNaughton will shift roles to lead the new foundation, and Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez will succeed her as president.

Harwell Godfrey Snake Giza Ring, Foundrae Mind, Body Soul Story Necklace, Tiffany & Co. Tiffany Titan By Pharrell Williams Bracelet
TrendsMay 13, 2025
State of Jewelry Design: The Top 10 Jewelry Trends of the Past Decade

As a nod to the theme of JCK Las Vegas 2025, “Decades,” National Jeweler took a look back at the top 10 jewelry trends of the past 10 years.

Lightbox’s Reminiscence Poet earrings in 14-karat white gold with lab-grown diamonds
Lab-GrownMay 12, 2025
Lightbox to Go Dark by Summer, De Beers Says

The company plans to halt all consumer-facing activity this summer, while Lightbox factory operations will cease by the end of the year.

Stock image of shipping containers
Policies & IssuesMay 12, 2025
Tariffs on Chinese Imports Temporarily Slashed as U.S.-China Reach Deal

Following weekend negotiations, the tax on Chinese goods imported into the United States will drop by 115 percent for the next 90 days.

Artists’ Jewelry: From Cubism to Pop, the Diane Venet Collection
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
Jewelry By Picasso, Dalí on Display at Florida Art Museum

“Artists’ Jewelry: From Cubism to Pop, the Diane Venet Collection” is on view at the Norton Museum of Art through October.

2025 CASE Award Submission Graphic
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
CASE Awards Now Accepting Entries For 2025

The deadline to submit is June 16.

Lugano Diamonds store in Greenwich, Connecticut
IndependentsMay 09, 2025
Lugano Diamonds CEO Resigns Amid Internal Investigation

Moti Ferder stepped down Wednesday and will not receive any severance pay, parent company Compass Diversified said.

Coeur Percé Scapular Necklace and Love Baby Locket
CollectionsMay 09, 2025
Pieces of the Week: Marie Lichtenberg’s Collaborations for Mother’s Day

Lichtenberg partnered with luxury platform Mytheresa on two designs honoring the connection between mothers and daughters.

Gemfields emeralds
SourcingMay 09, 2025
Gemfields Resumes Emerald Mining in Zambia

The miner announced plans to recommence open-pit mining at Kagem.

Stock image of a man’s hands in handcuffs
CrimeMay 08, 2025
Former NYC Jewelry Store Employee Arrested in 2017 Choking Death of Boss

Michel Desalles allegedly murdered Omid Gholian inside World of Gold N Diamond using zip ties and then fled the country.

2025 Met Gala jewelry
EditorsMay 08, 2025
5 ‘Superfine’ Met Gala Jewelry Moments

Associate Editor Lauren McLemore shares her favorite looks from a night of style inspired by Black dandyism.

instappraise-1.png
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2025
Instappraise Introduces Game-Changing Trifold Appraisal Format

Sponsored by Instappraise

Brilliant Earth three stone Sabine diamond engagement ring
FinancialsMay 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth Notes an Uptick in Engagement Ring Sales in Q1

CEO Beth Gerstein discussed the company’s bridal bestsellers, the potential impact of tariffs, and the rising price of gold.

Exterior of Margot McKinney Beverly Hills Location
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Margot McKinney Lands in the U.S. With New Boutique

The brand’s first independent location outside of Australia has opened in Beverly Hills, California.

Cathy Marsh
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Verragio Announces New Regional Sales Manager

Cathy Marsh will lead the jewelry company’s efforts in the upper Midwest and western United States.

Pandora gold and silver charm bracelet
FinancialsMay 07, 2025
Pandora Posts Strong Q1, Plans for Tariffs

The company has multiple strategies for dealing with tariffs, though its CEO said moving manufacturing to the U.S. is not one of them.

Headshot of Smart Age Solutions CEO Emmanuel Raheb
ColumnistsMay 07, 2025
The Smart Lab: Building a Seasonal Marketing Strategy for Mother’s Day and Beyond

Connecting with your customers throughout the year is key to a successful holiday marketing push.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy