Jewelry Resilient in 2024 Even As Luxury Sales Slipped, Says Bain & Co.

New York—Bain & Company’s “Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study,” released last month in collaboration with Altagamma, shared insights into the 2024 luxury market and the outlook for the year ahead.

According to the study, sales in the global luxury goods market dipped to €1.48 trillion ($1.54 trillion) in 2024, down 1 to 3 percent year-over-year at current exchange rates.

This slight decline signifies a normalization after the strong growth seen in 2022 and 2023, said the report, with 2024’s performance still surpassing pre-COVID levels.

Bain & Co.’s report delves into the reasons behind the decline in sales last year, how the jewelry category is performing, U.S. market trends, and more.

Here are five takeaways from the report.

The luxury market’s customer base is shrinking.
For the first time in the 23-year history of this report, the luxury market’s customer base contracted.

Bain estimated the market lost about 50 million customers globally between 2022 and 2024, declining from 400 million to around 350 million customers by the end of 2024 driven by a decline in demand for personal luxury goods, particularly among younger consumers.

The market for personal luxury goods (e.g., jewelry, watches, clothes, cosmetics), which Bain called “the core of the core” of luxury segments, saw its first contraction in 15 years, excluding the pandemic period.

“Global luxury consumers, grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty and continued price elevation by brands, cut back slightly on discretionary items,” said the report.

The size of the market for personal luxury goods dipped 2 percent year-over-year at current exchange rates to €363 billion ($377 billion) in 2024.

“This trend—particularly acute among Generation Z, whose advocacy for luxury brands continued to decline—has caused the [overall] luxury customer base to shrink,” the reported noted.

The slowdown in the market led to polarized performances among luxury brands.

The report estimated only about one-third of brands saw growth in 2024, compared with 95 percent from 2021 to 2022 and 65 percent in 2023.

“The average profitability of personal luxury goods brands eroded, reflecting the limited room for further price increases and rising costs of serving the consumer, from marketing to distribution,” said the report.

By region, sales in the Americas totaled €100 billion ($103.86), down 1 percent year-over-year at current exchange rates.

The U.S. luxury market was on a “generally upward” quarterly trajectory throughout the year despite ebbs and flows in consumer confidence.

Aspirational customers are facing financial pressure, with more shoppers opting for value-for-money luxury and non-luxury brands, turning to department stores and outlet malls to do their shopping.

Shoppers, particularly younger ones, value “hyper-personalized” customer service and are looking for unique items.

A few factors should help to sustain the U.S. market’s performance in the future, said the report, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the conclusion of the presidential election, easing inflation, and the prospect of tax cuts and enhanced economic growth.

Jewelry was the “most resilient” of the core luxury segments.
Though the overall market for personal luxury goods struggled, jewelry was a top performer, particularly in the United States.

Jewelry “proved to be the most resilient core luxury category in 2024,” said the report, flat to up 2 percent at current exchange rates to reach €31 billion ($32.2 billion) in sales.

“This performance was driven by consistent high-low brand strategies and enhanced customer-centric approaches,” said the report.

High jewelry did especially well, outperforming the “less-elevated” parts of the market.

“Competition intensified, with luxury fashion houses expanding their presence in the segment and rising local giants seeking to grow beyond their domestic markets,” it said.

Chanel, for example, introduced its “Haute Joaillerie Sport” high jewelry collection in 2024. 

The report also noted that secondhand luxury is increasingly becoming a “gateway” to luxury for aspirational consumers who cannot afford new items, with growth in sales of pre-owned jewelry particularly strong and sales of secondhand clothing accelerating.

The success of the jewelry category is impressive when considering that few luxury categories posted growth in 2024.

The report said most, “experienced elevation-related volume declines due to list price increases and an emphasis on higher price categories in the mix of products sold.” 

Outside of jewelry, luxury beauty and eyewear performed the best, up 3 to 5 percent year-over-year as customers opted for small indulgences and responded well to “renewed creativity” in the eyewear category.

The watch category struggled as consumer interest waned.
Watches had a tough year, posting sales declines of 5 to 7 percent at current exchange rates to around €51 billion ($52.97 billion) in 2024.

“The segment exited its recent growth cycle amid reduced consumer interest, and prices dropped in the secondary market,” said the report.

Only top-performing brands saw positive results, it said, with demand for unique shapes and precious materials growing.

Notably, gender-specific designs were less common.

The report also noted that the “retailization” trend in distribution continued, with brands looking to build connections with customers in their own stores instead of relying on multi-brand distributors.

Outlet stores did well as shoppers looked for deals.
The outlet channel outperformed the market in 2024, posting a growth rate of 0 to 3 percent at current exchange rates, the report said.

While most physical luxury stores suffered from “plummeting” foot traffic, the outlet channel gained popularity as an entry point into the luxury market, driven in part by shoppers looking for more for their money.

“Aspirational consumers faced increased financial pressure, leading to a shift toward value-for-money luxury and non-luxury brands, particularly in department stores and outlet malls,” said the report.

As for the other channels, monobrand stores saw sales declines of 1 to 4 percent at current exchange rates, due in part to a decrease in foot traffic.

Multi-brand stores also struggled, with department store sales down 2 to 4 percent and specialty stores down by 4 to 8 percent.

As for online sales, the report said the channel is normalizing after post-pandemic swings, posting declines of 1 to 4 percent at current exchange rates. It maintained a 20 percent share of the luxury market.

Notably, off-price online platforms saw growth because they, “[serve] as a gateway to luxury purchases and an appealing alternative for affluent consumers trading down.”

To succeed in 2025, luxury retailers need a solid strategy.
Last year was a challenging one for the luxury sector, but this year could see growth.

The personal luxury goods segment is forecast to grow moderately in 2025, with sales estimated to be flat to up 4 percent.

The report said solid market fundamentals should lead to growth between 4 to 6 percent annually until 2030, reaching an estimated total value of €460 billion to €500 billion ($477.75 billion to $519.29 billion) by the end of the period.

Demographic and macroeconomic tailwinds should bolster the sector because, it said, there are more than 300 million new customers likely to emerge in the next five years in China and other markets.

Retailers may have some tough choices to make to navigate the issues facing the luxury industry, such as deciding whether to seek exclusivity or change course to reach a broader audience, but deciding on a strategy is the way forward, the report said.

“Across all the potential strategic choices, there’s a common need to rebuild luxury foundations by refocusing on the basics that have always characterized luxury, such as the highest quality and creativity; by fostering a relationship with consumers that goes beyond individual transactions, connects with multiple audiences, and transcends short-term hype; and, lastly, by delivering flawlessly, drawing on new technology such as generative AI along the whole value chain,” the report said.

Read the full report on the Bain & Company website.