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Consumer Confidence Ticks Up in July
Respondents shared concerns about tariffs and commentary on the “Big Beautiful Bill.”
The Conference Board’s monthly U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July from 95.2 in June.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in July but remained below last year’s levels.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2 in June.
“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 131.5 in July from 133 in June.
Consumers’ view of the present situation was little changed, said Guichard, though they were slightly more positive about current business conditions in July than in June.
However, their view of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 74.4 from 69.9 in June.
However, for the sixth consecutive month, expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income,” said Guichard.
The uptick in overall consumer confidence was driven by consumers over 35 years old and seen across all income groups, except those with household annual income below $15,000.
By partisan affiliation, confidence improved in July among Republican consumers and was stable for Democrats and Independents.
As for the write-in responses, higher prices resulting from tariffs remained a top concern.
References to high prices and inflation rose in July, even though consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations decreased slightly.
“A number of survey respondents mentioned the recent budget reconciliation legislation passed by Congress (referring to it as the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’)—with some consumers praising its potential positive economic impact and others expressing concerns,” said Guichard.
“However, the bill and its implications were relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused on in July.”
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The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2 in June.
“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 131.5 in July from 133 in June.
Consumers’ view of the present situation was little changed, said Guichard, though they were slightly more positive about current business conditions in July than in June.
However, their view of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 74.4 from 69.9 in June.
However, for the sixth consecutive month, expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income,” said Guichard.
The uptick in overall consumer confidence was driven by consumers over 35 years old and seen across all income groups, except those with household annual income below $15,000.
By partisan affiliation, confidence improved in July among Republican consumers and was stable for Democrats and Independents.
As for the write-in responses, higher prices resulting from tariffs remained a top concern.
References to high prices and inflation rose in July, even though consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations decreased slightly.
“A number of survey respondents mentioned the recent budget reconciliation legislation passed by Congress (referring to it as the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’)—with some consumers praising its potential positive economic impact and others expressing concerns,” said Guichard.
“However, the bill and its implications were relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused on in July.”
Consumers’ outlook on their family’s current and future financial situation, measures not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index, “remained solid but deteriorated somewhat in July,” said the Conference Board.
The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months, also not included in the overall index, also declined slightly in July but was still above 2024 levels.
Respondents were asked a special question in July’s survey about the direction of various interest rates.
Responses suggested that consumers largely believe mortgage rates, auto loan rates, and credit card rates were more likely to rise than other types of interest rates, said the Conference Board.
Consumers expected credit card rates to rise the most.
Looking at other metrics, consumers’ outlook on stock prices continued its recovery following a 16-month low in April, with 48 percent expecting to see stock prices rise over the next 12 months, up from 38 percent in April.
The number of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months declined to 53 percent from 57 percent in June.
Meanwhile, 21 percent of consumers expected interest rates to fall, up from 18 percent in June.
Plans to purchase cars and homes declined in July but remained stable on a 6-month moving average basis.
Plans to buy big-ticket items were mixed, particularly for appliances, while plans to buy electronic goods rose slightly.
Plans to purchase services weakened for the second month, with nearly all services categories declining.
Notably, the “dining out” category saw the largest decline in spending intentions in July, along with transportation and lodging related to personal travel.
In turn, plans to book vacations were also down overall in July. Plans to travel in the U.S. declined while plans to travel abroad ticked up slightly.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for August are scheduled to be released on Aug. 26.
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