Surveys

Consumer Confidence Falls in March Amid ‘Gloomy’ Outlook

SurveysMar 27, 2025

Consumer Confidence Falls in March Amid ‘Gloomy’ Outlook

The Conference Board’s index fell as consumers continued to worry about the impact of tariffs, the labor market, and the price of eggs.

Eggs on a shelf
U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month in March as consumers worried about the prices of eggs and other household staples, as well as tariffs and the labor market.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell again in March as consumers continued to worry about the future, from the impact of tariffs to the prices of eggs and other household staples.

The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 92.9 in March from an upwardly revised 100.1 in February.

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. 

Of the five components the index tracks, only consumers’ views of the present labor market improved, and only slightly. Views of current business conditions weakened, now close to neutral.

Consumers’ expectations were “especially gloomy,” with concerns about future business conditions worsening and confidence about future employment prospects hitting a 12-year low. 

“Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Guichard.

The drop in consumer confidence was driven by consumers over 55 years old, followed by those between 35 and 55.

For consumers under 35, confidence rose slightly, with a rise in their assessment of their present situation offsetting “gloomier” future expectations.

The decline was felt across income groups, except for households that earn more than $125,000 a year.

As for the write-in responses, comments about the Trump administration, both positive and negative, topped the list regarding what is affecting respondent’s view of the economy.

Inflation remains a major concern, said The Conference Board, with worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs on the rise. There were also more references than usual to uncertainty surrounding the economy and policy.

 Related stories will be right here … 

The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 134.5 in March from an upwardly revised 138.1 in February.

Consumers’ view of current business conditions was “significantly less positive” in March, while their view on the labor market improved slightly.

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 65.2 from an upwardly revised 74.8 in February, marking its lowest level in 12 years.

When this index falls below 80, it usually signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.

Consumers had a more pessimistic outlook on business conditions, the labor market, and their income prospects for the next six months.

Their outlook on their family’s current financial situation, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index, improved slightly.

Their view on their future financial situation weakened to the lowest level since July 2022.

Respondents were asked a special question in this month’s survey about how easy it is to form expectations about the future.

The results found “considerable self-confidence” in assessing their own future income prospects and family financial situation, with 45 percent finding it easy and 20 percent finding it difficult.

However, when it comes to forming expectations about broader economic trends, that seemed to be more of a challenge.

More than one-third of respondents said it was difficult to assess future employment and business conditions, while nearly 40 percent said it was difficult to predict inflation.

“Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months” held steady at a nine-month-high.

The number of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months rose to 55 percent from 53 percent in February.

The share of consumers expecting lower interest rates dropped to 22 percent from 24 percent.

Consumers were also more negative about the stock market.

“Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023,” said Guichard.

Forty percent of respondents expect stock prices to rise over the year ahead, down nearly 10 percent from February and down 20 percent from the high in November 2024.

Meanwhile, 45 percent expect to see stock prices decline, up 11 percent from February and up 22 percent from November 2024.

The average 12-month inflation expectations rose again to 6.2 percent in March from 5.8 percent in February, with concerns about the high prices of household staples, like eggs, and the impact of tariffs.

Plans to purchase homes and cars declined on a six-month moving average basis.

However, despite future worries, plans to buy big-ticket items like appliances and electronics are on the rise, which The Conference Board said may reflect plans to buy these items before impending tariffs lead to a rise in prices.

Plans to buy services were mostly unchanged, but priorities shifted, it said.

Fewer consumers planned to spend more on movies, live entertainment, or sports, and more planned to spend on outdoor activities and travel, while plans to vacation also increased.

The Consumer Confidence survey results for April are scheduled to be released on April 29.

The Latest

Sylvie Jewelry Auranova Collection Campaign Imagery
CollectionsApr 25, 2025
Sylvie Looks to Water in New Sculptural Bridal Collection

“Shell Auranova” is the next generation of the brand’s bridal line, featuring half-bezel engagement rings with bold and fluid designs.

Pomellato Nudo toi et moi ring
FinancialsApr 25, 2025
Kering’s Jewelry Brands Persevere as Q1 Sales Sink 14%

Boucheron and Pomellato performed well in an otherwise bleak quarter for Kering amid struggles at Gucci.

Deborah Meyers Experience The Birds Earrings
EditorsApr 25, 2025
Piece of the Week: Deborah Meyers Experience’s ‘The Birds’ Earrings

Designer Deborah Meyers created her birds from oxidized sterling silver, rose-cut diamond eyes, and Akoya Keshi pearl feathers.

ejap cohort 1872x1052.png
Brought to you by
Emerging Jewelers Accelerator Program Announces Second Cohort of Aspiring Jewelry Entrepreneurs

Six new retail businesses were selected for the 2025 program, which began in January.

Melee diamonds from De Beers
SourcingApr 25, 2025
De Beers Sales, Production Fall in Q1 Amid Uncertainty

The company said it expects sightholders to remain “cautious” with their purchasing due to all the unknowns around the U.S. tariffs.

Weekly QuizApr 24, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
LIM-401 2024 National Jeweler Supplier Bulletin- iD100 Web and Eblast FINAL (1).jpg
Supplier BulletinApr 24, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your Business

Sponsored by the Gemological Institute of America

Wolf CEO Simon Wolf
EditorsApr 24, 2025
Q&A: Wolf’s CEO Talks U.S. Expansion

Simon Wolf shares why the time was right to open a new office here, what he looks for in a retail partner, and why he loves U.S. consumers.

gia1d100 btyb.jpg
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your Business

The risk of laboratory-grown diamonds being falsely presented as natural diamonds presents a very significant danger to consumer trust.

Iowa jeweler Herman Ginsberg
IndependentsApr 24, 2025
Longtime Iowa Jeweler Herman Ginsberg Dies at 99

A third-generation jeweler, Ginsberg worked at his family’s store, Ginsberg Jewelers, from 1948 until his retirement in 2019.

Charles & Colvard moissanite ring
FinancialsApr 24, 2025
Charles & Colvard Delisted From Nasdaq Due to Noncompliance

The company failed to file its quarterly reports in a timely manner.

Young Diamantaires
SourcingApr 24, 2025
Young Diamantaires Transition to Nonprofit

The organization also announced its board of directors.

Mined + Found "Hope" Matchbox Locket
TrendsApr 24, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: So Charming

Charms may be tiny but with their small size comes endless layering possibilities, from bracelets to necklaces and earrings.

Bulgari’s expanded factory in Valenza, Italy
MajorsApr 23, 2025
Bulgari Doubles Size of Jewelry Factory in Italy

Located in Valenza, the now 355,000-square-foot facility includes a new jewelry school that’s open to the public, Scuola Bulgari.

Jason McNary accepting FGI Fine Jewelry Rising Star award for Paola Sasplugas
Events & AwardsApr 23, 2025
PDPaola Creative Director Wins FGI’s ‘Rising Star’ Award

Paola Sasplugas, co-founder of the Barcelona-based jewelry brand, received the Fine Jewelry Award.

1999 Cosmograph Daytona, Ref.16516
AuctionsApr 23, 2025
Rare Custom Rolex Daytona Heads to Auction

A platinum Zenith-powered Daytona commissioned in the late ‘90s will headline Sotheby’s Important Watches sale in Geneva next month.

Carmelo Anthony and Jaylen Brown David Yurman campaign
MajorsApr 23, 2025
David Yurman’s New Campaign Stars Carmelo Anthony, Jaylen Brown

The basketball stars wear men’s jewelry from the “Curb Chain” collection.

Woman wearing Zales jewelry
MajorsApr 22, 2025
Zales’ Rebrand Takes Playful Approach to Fine Jewelry

The Signet Jewelers-owned retailer wants to encourage younger shoppers to wear fine jewelry every day, not just on special occasions.

JAR Apricot Blossom bracelet
AuctionsApr 22, 2025
Christie’s to Auction JAR Jewelry Collection

The 21 pieces, all from a private collector, will be offered at its Magnificent Jewels auction next month.

National Jeweler columnist Lilian Raji
ColumnistsApr 22, 2025
The PR Adviser: Building Buzz Through Word of Mouth

Lilian Raji answers a question from a reader who is looking to grow her jewelry business but has a limited marketing budget.

Avi Levy
GradingApr 22, 2025
Avi Levy Is GCAL By Sarine’s New Chief Growth Officer

GCAL by Sarine created the new role to sharpen the company’s focus on strategic partnerships and scalable expansion.

Scottsdale Fine Jewelers store exterior
IndependentsApr 22, 2025
Brinker’s Jewelers Acquires Fellow Independent

The Indiana jeweler has acquired Scottsdale Fine Jewelers in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Cartier Exhibition Installation at Victoria & Albert Museum
Events & AwardsApr 21, 2025
An Exhibition Exploring the History of Cartier Is Now on Display

“Cartier: Design, Craft, and Legacy” opened earlier this month at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London.

Bill and Birdie Levine of Van Cott Jewelers
IndependentsApr 21, 2025
New York Jeweler to Close After 111 Years

Van Cott Jewelers in Vestal, New York, is hosting a going-out-of-business sale.

IJO Director Samantha Larson
IndependentsApr 21, 2025
IJO Names New Director of Vendor Relations, Merchandise Strategy

Industry veteran Samantha Larson has held leadership roles at Borsheims, McTeigue & McClelland, Stuller, and Long’s Jewelers.

Events & AwardsApr 21, 2025
Jewelers of Louisiana, Mississippi Jewelers Association to Co-Host Convention

The two organizations will hold the educational event together this fall in Mississippi.

Daymond John
Events & AwardsApr 18, 2025
Daymond John to Give Keynote at JCK Las Vegas

The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.

Dukachi Easter Bread Pendant
CollectionsApr 18, 2025
Piece of the Week: Dukachi’s ‘Easter Bread’ Pendant

The Ukrainian brand’s new pendant is modeled after a traditional paska, a pastry often baked for Easter in Eastern European cultures.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy