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Consumers Feeling a Little More Confident in July
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 100.3 from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.
Confidence among consumers improved last month, according to The Conference Board, with U.S. shoppers feeling more optimistic about the next six months, but slightly less secure about their current situations.
New York—Consumer confidence increased in July but remains within the “narrow range” it has occupied for the past two years, as high prices and interest rates continue to weigh on consumers’ minds, The Conference Board said Tuesday.
According to the board’s latest Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. consumers were feeling more positive last month, though they’re generally more optimistic about the short-term future than the present.
The index rose to 100.3 in July from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ views on the current state of business and the job market, fell from 135.3 in June to 133.6 in July, but the Expectations Index, which asks consumers how they think conditions will be six months from now, rose to 78.2 from 72.8 in June.
However, it remains below 80, which usually signals a recession ahead.
“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson said.
“Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.”
Age group-wise, Peterson said consumers under 35 and those who are 55 and older (the oldest members of Gen X and the baby boomers) felt more confident in July, while confidence declined among consumers ages 35-54, a mix of millennials and Gen Xers.
On a month-over-month basis, no clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups, she said, but on average over the last six months, consumers making more than $100,000 were the most confident.
She added that the proportion of consumers predicting a recession increased in July but still remains well below its 2023 peak.
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According to the board’s latest Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. consumers were feeling more positive last month, though they’re generally more optimistic about the short-term future than the present.
The index rose to 100.3 in July from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ views on the current state of business and the job market, fell from 135.3 in June to 133.6 in July, but the Expectations Index, which asks consumers how they think conditions will be six months from now, rose to 78.2 from 72.8 in June.
However, it remains below 80, which usually signals a recession ahead.
“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson said.
“Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.”
Age group-wise, Peterson said consumers under 35 and those who are 55 and older (the oldest members of Gen X and the baby boomers) felt more confident in July, while confidence declined among consumers ages 35-54, a mix of millennials and Gen Xers.
On a month-over-month basis, no clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups, she said, but on average over the last six months, consumers making more than $100,000 were the most confident.
She added that the proportion of consumers predicting a recession increased in July but still remains well below its 2023 peak.
The Conference Board, a New York-based nonprofit think tank, publishes its Consumer Confidence Index every month. It is based on an online survey that technology company Toluna conducts on behalf of the board. The survey includes write-in responses.
In July, those responses showed that higher prices, especially for food and groceries, and inflation continue to color consumers’ outlook on the economy.
Other factors include the U.S. political situation and the labor market.
The Conference Board said mentions about the forthcoming presidential election increased in July, though the share of respondents who wrote that the 2024 election will impact the economy is lower than it was in July 2016.
The Conference Board asked a supplemental question about future spending on services in July.
Consumers said over the next six months, they plan to spend less on discretionary services, like travel, amusement parks and gambling, and to save money by opting for the less expensive choice, e.g., streaming a film at home instead of going to the movies.
They will continue to prioritize non-discretionary expenditures, like health care and service and repairs on their cars and trucks, The Conference Board said.
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