SurveysMay 01, 2024
Consumer Confidence Falls in AprilSurveysJun 10, 2024
Consumer Confidence Rises in May Despite Anxiety About the Future
Expectations of a recession rose for the second consecutive month.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose in May after three consecutive months of decline.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence rose in May following three consecutive months of decline, but anxiety about the future lingers.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 102 in May from 97.5 in April.
“According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups,” she said.
Those making more than $100,000 saw the largest rise in confidence.
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest and wealthiest consumers, it found, including those under 35 and those making more than $100,000.
The average 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent.
“Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55 percent to 56 percent,” said the Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was less optimistic in May, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 20 percent from 21 percent in April, while those who said conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the labor market was mixed, with those who said jobs were “plentiful” flat while those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell to 14 percent from 16 percent.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 102 in May from 97.5 in April.
“According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups,” she said.
Those making more than $100,000 saw the largest rise in confidence.
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest and wealthiest consumers, it found, including those under 35 and those making more than $100,000.
The average 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent.
“Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55 percent to 56 percent,” said the Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was less optimistic in May, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 20 percent from 21 percent in April, while those who said conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the labor market was mixed, with those who said jobs were “plentiful” flat while those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell to 14 percent from 16 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 74.6 from 68.8 in April.
Notably, an Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a recession ahead, said the Conference Board. It has been below 80 for four consecutive months.
Consumers’ view of short-term business conditions outlook was also mixed in May.
The percentage of respondents who expect business conditions to improve was flat at 13 percent while those who expect business conditions to worsen was down to 17 percent from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in May was more positive.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was up to 13 percent from 12 percent, while the number of respondents who expect fewer jobs to be available was down to 18 percent from 20 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects was also mixed.
The number of respondents who expect their incomes to increase was flat at 17 percent, while 11 percent of respondents expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
Consumers were also less optimistic about their family’s financial situation, both currently and over the next six months, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index.
The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession Over the Next 12 Months” rose for the second consecutive month.
“The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns,” said Peterson, with more consumers believing recession is “somewhat likely” or “very likely.”
This finding contrasts with the CEO assessments of recession risk found in its CEO Confidence survey, which reported only 35 percent of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months.
Consumers were optimistic about the stock market, however, with 48 percent expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, 25 percent expecting a decrease, and 26 percent expecting no change.
Regarding big-ticket items, purchasing plans were mixed among respondents.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012.
Plans to buy autos, though still “relatively depressed,” were up slightly for the second month, plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CrimeMay 08, 2025
Former NYC Jewelry Store Employee Arrested in 2017 Choking Death of Boss Michel Desalles allegedly murdered Omid Gholian inside World of Gold N Diamond using zip ties and then fled the country.
EditorsMay 08, 2025
5 ‘Superfine’ Met Gala Jewelry MomentsAssociate Editor Lauren McLemore shares her favorite looks from a night of style inspired by Black dandyism.
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2025
Instappraise Introduces Game-Changing Trifold Appraisal FormatSponsored by Instappraise
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
FinancialsMay 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth Notes an Uptick in Engagement Ring Sales in Q1CEO Beth Gerstein discussed the company’s bridal bestsellers, the potential impact of tariffs, and the rising price of gold.
Weekly QuizMay 08, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Margot McKinney Lands in the U.S. With New BoutiqueThe brand’s first independent location outside of Australia has opened in Beverly Hills, California.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Verragio Announces New Regional Sales ManagerCathy Marsh will lead the jewelry company’s efforts in the upper Midwest and western United States.
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest AdditionSupplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
FinancialsMay 07, 2025
Pandora Posts Strong Q1, Plans for TariffsThe company has multiple strategies for dealing with tariffs, though its CEO said moving manufacturing to the U.S. is not one of them.
ColumnistsMay 07, 2025
The Smart Lab: Building a Seasonal Marketing Strategy for Mother’s Day and BeyondConnecting with your customers throughout the year is key to a successful holiday marketing push.
SourcingMay 07, 2025
Gemfields Says Emerald Sales Improved in Latest AuctionIts commercial-quality emerald sale held last month totaled more than $16 million, up from about $11 million in September 2024.
TechnologyMay 07, 2025
Punchmark’s Latest Podcast Features a Very Special Guest National Jeweler Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff joined Michael Burpoe to talk tariffs, consumer confidence, and the sky-high price of gold.
AuctionsMay 06, 2025
Harwell Godfrey Reimagines 10-Carat Blue Diamond for Met Gala-Ready BroochDesigner Lauren Harwell Godfrey made the piece as an homage to the 2025 gala’s theme, “Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.”
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2025
Here’s Who Made Jewelers of America’s New ‘20 Under 40’ ListExpanded this year to include suppliers, JA’s 2025 list honors 40 up-and-coming professionals in the jewelry industry.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens New StoreLocated in Fort Smith, it’s the Mid-South jeweler’s first store in Northwest Arkansas.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Gunderson’s Jewelers to Be Featured on ‘World’s Greatest’ TV SeriesThe episode about the family-owned jeweler will premiere May 17.
IndependentsMay 05, 2025
Zadok Jewelers Opens Store in AustinThe Houston-based jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot showroom will include a Rolex boutique.
AuctionsMay 05, 2025
Nancy Astor’s Cartier Tiara Heads to AuctionThe turquoise and diamond tiara hasn’t been on the market since it was purchased by Lord Astor in 1930.
SourcingMay 05, 2025
Crater of Diamonds Yields 4-Carat Brown Diamond“The Duke Diamond” is the largest diamond registered at the Arkansas park so far this year.
TrendsMay 02, 2025
Ring Concierge, Kraft Partner on Mother’s Day Macaroni Necklace The childhood craft of making dried pasta necklaces for Mother’s Day is all grown up as the 14-karat gold “Forever Macaroni” necklace.
CollectionsMay 02, 2025
Piece of the Week: Angely Martinez’s Emerald Promise RingSet with May’s birthstone and featuring an earthworm, this ring is a perfect celebration of spring.
MajorsMay 02, 2025
Stuller’s New Bridal Catalog Is Here“Bridal 2025–2026” includes popular styles and a dedicated section for quick pricing references of lab-grown diamond bridal jewelry.
SourcingMay 01, 2025
Tariffs & Colored Gemstones: Relying on Stock, Considering the Ripple EffectThough currently paused, high tariffs threaten many countries where gemstones are mined. Dealers are taking measures now to prepare.
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Peek Inside David Yurman’s New Miami Flagship StoreLocated in Miami’s Design District, the 4,000-square-foot store is an homage to David and Sybil Yurman’s artistic roots.
TrendsMay 01, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: 20 Pieces of Emerald Jewelry for MayMay babies are lucky indeed, born in a month awash with fresh colors and celebrated with one of the most coveted colored gemstones.
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Jewelers of America Opens Applications for 2025 ScholarshipsThe deadline to apply for the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship is June 12.
Events & AwardsApr 30, 2025
Instore Show Debuts New Name, Look, and FocusNow called The Instore Jewelry Show, it will include holiday-focused education, interactive workshops, and a window display contest.
