Consumer Confidence Rises in May Despite Anxiety About the Future
Expectations of a recession rose for the second consecutive month.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 102 in May from 97.5 in April.
“According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups,” she said.
Those making more than $100,000 saw the largest rise in confidence.
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest and wealthiest consumers, it found, including those under 35 and those making more than $100,000.
The average 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent.
“Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55 percent to 56 percent,” said the Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was less optimistic in May, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 20 percent from 21 percent in April, while those who said conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the labor market was mixed, with those who said jobs were “plentiful” flat while those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell to 14 percent from 16 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 74.6 from 68.8 in April.
Notably, an Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a recession ahead, said the Conference Board. It has been below 80 for four consecutive months.
Consumers’ view of short-term business conditions outlook was also mixed in May.
The percentage of respondents who expect business conditions to improve was flat at 13 percent while those who expect business conditions to worsen was down to 17 percent from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in May was more positive.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was up to 13 percent from 12 percent, while the number of respondents who expect fewer jobs to be available was down to 18 percent from 20 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects was also mixed.
The number of respondents who expect their incomes to increase was flat at 17 percent, while 11 percent of respondents expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
Consumers were also less optimistic about their family’s financial situation, both currently and over the next six months, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index.
The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession Over the Next 12 Months” rose for the second consecutive month.
“The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns,” said Peterson, with more consumers believing recession is “somewhat likely” or “very likely.”
This finding contrasts with the CEO assessments of recession risk found in its CEO Confidence survey, which reported only 35 percent of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months.
Consumers were optimistic about the stock market, however, with 48 percent expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, 25 percent expecting a decrease, and 26 percent expecting no change.
Regarding big-ticket items, purchasing plans were mixed among respondents.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012.
Plans to buy autos, though still “relatively depressed,” were up slightly for the second month, plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months.
The Latest

The Vault’s Katherine Jetter is accusing the retailer of using info she shared for a potential partnership to move into Nantucket.

Agents seized 2,193 pieces, a mix of counterfeit Cartier “Love” and “Juste Un Clou” bracelets, and Van Cleef & Arpels’ “Alhambra” design.

The designer brought her children’s book, “The Big Splash Circus,” to life through a collection of playful fine jewelry characters.

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.

The trade association has chosen the recipients of the funding initiative it formed to foster the growth and sustainability of the industry.


The organization has also announced this year’s slate of judges.

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco shares 20 additional pieces that stood out to her at the Couture show.

The countdown is on for the JCK Las Vegas Show and JA is pulling out all the stops.

Lori Tucker started at Williams Jewelers when she was 18 years old.

The “Marvel | Citizen Zenshin” watch is crafted in Super Titanium and has subtle nods to all four “Fantastic Four” superheroes on the dial.

The “XO Tacori” collection was designed to blend luxury and accessible pricing.

Pritesh Patel, the lab’s chief operating officer, will take over as president and CEO of GIA.

National Jeweler and Jewelers of America discuss the standout jewelry trends and biggest news to emerge from the shows this year.

Signatories to the “Luanda Accord” committed to allocating 1 percent of annual diamond revenue to the Natural Diamond Council.

The winning designs captured the “Radiance” theme.

Nominations in the categories of Jewelry Design, Media Excellence, and Retail Innovation will be accepted through July 30.

The singer’s ring ticks off many bridal trends, with a thick band, half-bezel setting, and solitaire diamond.

The bracelet references vintage high jewelry and snake symbolism as a playful piece where a python’s head becomes a working belt buckle.

The heist happened in Lebec, California, in 2022 when a Brinks truck was transporting goods from one show in California to another.

The 10-carat fancy purple-pink diamond with potential links to Marie Antoinette headlined the white-glove jewelry auction this week.

The Starboard Cruises SVP discusses who is shopping for jewelry on ships, how much they’re spending, and why brands should get on board.

The historic signet ring exceeded its estimate at Noonans Mayfair’s jewelry auction this week.

To mark the milestone, the brand is introducing new non-bridal fine jewelry designs for the first time in two decades.

The gemstone is the third most valuable ruby to come out of the Montepuez mine, Gemfields said.

Founder and longtime CEO Ben Smithee will stay with the agency, transitioning into the role of founding partner and strategic advisor.

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco shares 20 of her favorite pieces from the jewelry collections that debuted at Couture.

If you want to attract good salespeople and generate a stream of “sleeping money” for your jewelry store, then you are going to have to pay.