SurveysMay 01, 2024
Consumer Confidence Falls in AprilSurveysJun 10, 2024
Consumer Confidence Rises in May Despite Anxiety About the Future
Expectations of a recession rose for the second consecutive month.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose in May after three consecutive months of decline.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence rose in May following three consecutive months of decline, but anxiety about the future lingers.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 102 in May from 97.5 in April.
“According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups,” she said.
Those making more than $100,000 saw the largest rise in confidence.
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest and wealthiest consumers, it found, including those under 35 and those making more than $100,000.
The average 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent.
“Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55 percent to 56 percent,” said the Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was less optimistic in May, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 20 percent from 21 percent in April, while those who said conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the labor market was mixed, with those who said jobs were “plentiful” flat while those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell to 14 percent from 16 percent.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 102 in May from 97.5 in April.
“According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups,” she said.
Those making more than $100,000 saw the largest rise in confidence.
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest and wealthiest consumers, it found, including those under 35 and those making more than $100,000.
The average 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent.
“Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55 percent to 56 percent,” said the Conference Board.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was less optimistic in May, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 20 percent from 21 percent in April, while those who said conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 18 percent.
Consumers’ view of the labor market was mixed, with those who said jobs were “plentiful” flat while those who said jobs were “hard to get” fell to 14 percent from 16 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 74.6 from 68.8 in April.
Notably, an Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a recession ahead, said the Conference Board. It has been below 80 for four consecutive months.
Consumers’ view of short-term business conditions outlook was also mixed in May.
The percentage of respondents who expect business conditions to improve was flat at 13 percent while those who expect business conditions to worsen was down to 17 percent from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in May was more positive.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was up to 13 percent from 12 percent, while the number of respondents who expect fewer jobs to be available was down to 18 percent from 20 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects was also mixed.
The number of respondents who expect their incomes to increase was flat at 17 percent, while 11 percent of respondents expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
Consumers were also less optimistic about their family’s financial situation, both currently and over the next six months, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index.
The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession Over the Next 12 Months” rose for the second consecutive month.
“The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns,” said Peterson, with more consumers believing recession is “somewhat likely” or “very likely.”
This finding contrasts with the CEO assessments of recession risk found in its CEO Confidence survey, which reported only 35 percent of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months.
Consumers were optimistic about the stock market, however, with 48 percent expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, 25 percent expecting a decrease, and 26 percent expecting no change.
Regarding big-ticket items, purchasing plans were mixed among respondents.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012.
Plans to buy autos, though still “relatively depressed,” were up slightly for the second month, plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months.
More on Surveys
The Latest
PodcastsApr 15, 2026
Episode 4: The Natural Diamond DilemmaSally Morrison and Mark Klein discuss De Beers’ first beacon in 16 years and the mistake the industry made with lab-grown diamonds.
MajorsApr 15, 2026
Spark Creations’ Randy McKenzie Dies at 72 McKenzie spent 45 years with Spark Creations and is remembered for being kind, dedicated, and hardworking.
WatchesApr 15, 2026
These Are the New Rolex Watches for 2026Rolex focused exclusively on the Oyster Perpetual this year, as the model is celebrating its 100th anniversary.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
FinancialsApr 15, 2026
Kering’s Jewelry Shines in Q1, Gucci’s Struggle ContinuesThe luxury giant discussed the Middle East conflict and its transformation plans, hinting at a stronger jewelry presence in North America.
Weekly QuizApr 09, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingApr 15, 2026
Diamond Club West Coast Names 2026 BoardKalpesh Jhaveri was re-elected as president for a third year.
TechnologyApr 15, 2026
This Jewelry Brand’s Video Series Is Up for a Webby Award“Diamond Divas,” a social media reality series by Shahla Karimi Jewelry, is nominated in the “Best Social: Fashion & Beauty” category.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
SourcingApr 14, 2026
De Beers Expands ‘Desert Diamonds’ Beacon Into BridalThe campaign seeks to reignite desire for natural diamond engagement rings by highlighting the “distinct character” of warm-toned diamonds.
FinancialsApr 14, 2026
LVMH’s Q1 Sales Sink 6% Amid Middle East ConflictPlus, how Saks Global’s bankruptcy affected the luxury giant’s first quarter.
SourcingApr 14, 2026
International Jade Summit to Return to MontereyPresented by Mason-Kay Jade, the summit, in its second year, will again be held during the Monterey Bay Jade Festival.
Events & AwardsApr 14, 2026
CBG Releases Details for Las Vegas ShowThe group has announced its lineup of speakers and a new “Rising Stars” pavilion.
CollectionsApr 13, 2026
Uniform Object’s New Jewelry Collection Centers on the ‘Carbon Form’The “Carbon Form” collection explores the contrast between high and low materials, using rubber cord alongside 18-karat gold and gemstones.
Events & AwardsApr 13, 2026
JA Accepting 2026 Impact Initiative ApplicationsThe program provides essential funding to organizations for projects that enhance the jewelry industry.
Events & AwardsApr 13, 2026
Couture Announces New Show in MiamiThe jewelry trade show is launching its first open-to-the-public event in Coconut Grove this November.
CrimeApr 13, 2026
JSA Offers Reward in Oregon Jewelry Store Armed RobberyJSA is seeking information about the gunpoint robbery of a Kay Jewelers location in Oregon’s Washington Square Mall.
WatchesApr 10, 2026
These Watches Have Increased in Value the Most Since 2018, Says Chrono24The top-performing watch models may be surprising, with Rolex and several popular pandemic-era picks notably absent from the top 20.
CollectionsApr 10, 2026
Ophelia Eve’s Toggle Pendant Holds Your SecretsThe “Scroll” toggle pendant, our Piece of the Week, opens to reveal a hidden message, mantra, or love letter written on washi paper.
ColumnistsApr 09, 2026
Jewelry Demand Isn’t Stronger, Prices Are Just Higher Jewelers who misinterpret the state of the jewelry market risk employing the wrong retail strategy, cautions columnist Sherry Smith.
MajorsApr 09, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Promotes Nathalie Verdeille to SVP, Chief Artistic OfficerIn her newly expanded role, she will continue to oversee the jewelry category, as well as watches, home, and accessories.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Jacob & Co. Rolls Out Its Sequel to ‘The Godfather’ Musical Watch“The Godfather II” watch plays two melodies from the mob film’s score, “The Godfather’s Waltz” and “The Godfather Love Theme.”
Events & AwardsApr 09, 2026
JCK Announces Jesse Itzler as 2026 Keynote SpeakerOrganizers have also introduced the new JCK Talks Signature Series, as well as an offering of watch-focused workshops and lectures.
SourcingApr 09, 2026
AGA To Honor ‘Quiet Leadership’ With New AwardThe Alan Hodgkinson Medal recognizes gemologists who are consistently generous with their time and expertise.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Oris Names New CEO, CFOThe Swiss watchmaker is changing up its executive leadership team as part of a restructuring.
CollectionsApr 08, 2026
Hearts On Fire Celebrates 30 Years By Asking a QuestionThe “What’s Your Signature?” campaign invites women to think about how they see themselves.
SourcingApr 08, 2026
Sale of 42-Carat Blue Diamond Gives Petra a Boost in Q3The big diamond’s sale added to the company’s revenue though the market remains “challenging” overall, particularly for smaller goods.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
AGS Confluence Returns with AI, Sustainability SessionsRob Bates of The Jewelry Wire will also moderate a panel on the state of the jewelry industry during the virtual event.
