Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry Retail
Smith shares wisdom he gleaned from a podcast he was listening to one morning while being walked by his dog, a Malshi named Sophie.

It’s quite a sight, I can tell you—an 8-pound Malshi (a cross between a Maltese and Shih Tzu) dragging me all over the town like she owns the place while I trail behind holding onto her pink leash (yeah, my wife’s idea of humor) and pretending I’m in charge.
In any case, the podcast introduced me to the principle of the arrival fallacy, a psychological concept that speaks to why so many of us believe that if only something specific were to happen, it would definitively and forever fix a big problem we have.
Examples of the arrival fallacy in jewelry retail could be hiring a million-dollar sales writer to finally get the business on track.
It might be an exciting new brand that will magically propel the business to new heights.
It could be a significant injection of cash to steady a rocky boat.
It might be an executive hire to take your business to untold heights.
It could even be someone knocking on your door and offering to buy your business so that you can do all that travel you’ve been dreaming about.
Of course, if aged inventory was worth the dollar you paid for it five years ago, and potential buyers had more money than sense, such an occurrence might just be possible.
To a large extent, the arrival fallacy could be any one of a thousand different things that you believe would fundamentally change the game for you, personally or professionally, if it were to happen.
The problem, of course, is that it’s impossible to arrive at any destination without taking the necessary first step in that direction.
We can’t get anywhere unless we are willing to make the commitment to do what is necessary, one step at a time, one decision at a time.
If you need that million-dollar salesperson, quit imagining what it would be like and take the necessary action to put a plan in place.
If you are craving a particular brand, start the budgeting process to pay for it, assess your environment to best position the brand for success, and lay out a framework for a launch strategy.
If you feel like you need a cash injection in your business, have a cash flow and financial analysis done to first ensure that you are not bleeding money unnecessarily right now. There are people and companies that can help you with that. Make the call.
Likewise, if your ambition is to sell your business, get help in understanding how you can best position for that and put the wheels in motion.
And if you need an executive hire to drive your business forward, write down exactly what that would look like, what it might cost, and make the necessary calls to get help identifying who that person might be.
“We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.” — Peter Smith
Seeing the final outcome as both the answer to your problems (the arrival fallacy) and an insurmountable obstacle to be kicked down the road for another day stymies progress and innovation.
It ends up being nothing more than an unfulfilling pipe dream, a self-defeating paradox of its own making.
Sketch out the bones of your idea and whether internally (a permanent hire) or externally (a consulting company), get the necessary help to execute your goal.
We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.
Happy retailing!
The Latest

Prosecutors say the man attended arts and craft fairs claiming he was a third-generation jeweler who was a member of the Pueblo tribe.

New CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier shared her priorities for the Danish jewelry company this year as part of its fourth-quarter results.

Our Piece of the Week picks are these bespoke rings the “Wuthering Heights” stars have been spotted wearing during the film’s press tour.

Launched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.

The introduction of platinum plating will reduce its reliance on silver amid volatile price swings, said Pandora.


It would be the third impairment charge in three years on De Beers Group, which continues to grapple with a “challenging” diamond market.

The Omaha jewelry store’s multi-million-dollar renovation is scheduled to begin in mid-May and take about six months.

Criminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.

The “Paradise Amethyst” collection focuses on amethyst, pink tourmaline, garnet, and 18-karat yellow gold beads.

The retailer credited its Roberto Coin campaign, in part, for boosting its North America sales.

From how to get an invoice paid to getting merchandise returned, JVC’s Sara Yood answers some complex questions.

Amethyst, the birthstone for February, is a gemstone to watch this year with its rich purple hue and affordable price point.

The Italian jewelry company appointed Matteo Cuelli to the newly created role.

The manufacturer said the changes are designed to improve speed, reliability, innovation, and service.

President Trump said he has reached a trade deal with India, which, when made official, will bring relief to the country’s diamond industry.

The designer’s latest collection takes inspiration from her classic designs, reimagining the motifs in new forms.

The watchmaker moved its U.S. headquarters to a space it said fosters creativity and forward-thinking solutions in Jersey City, New Jersey.

The company also announced a new partnership with GemGuide and the pending launch of an education-focused membership program.

IGI is buying the colored gemstone grading laboratory through IGI USA, and AGL will continue to operate as its own brand.

The Texas jeweler said its team is “incredibly resilient” and thanked its community for showing support.

From cool-toned metal to ring stacks, Associate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights the jewelry trends she spotted at the Grammy Awards.

The medals feature a split-texture design highlighting the fact that the 2026 Olympics are taking place in two different cities.

From tech platforms to candy companies, here’s how some of the highest-ranking brands earned their spot on the list.

The “Khol” ring, our Piece of the Week, transforms the traditional Indian Khol drum into playful jewelry through hand-carved lapis.

The catalog includes more than 100 styles of stock, pre-printed, and custom tags and labels, as well as bar code technology products.

The chocolatier is bringing back its chocolate-inspired locket, offering sets of two to celebrate “perfect pairs.”

The top lot of the year was a 1930s Cartier tiara owned by Nancy, Viscountess Astor, which sold for $1.2 million in London last summer.

























