Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry Retail
Smith shares wisdom he gleaned from a podcast he was listening to one morning while being walked by his dog, a Malshi named Sophie.

It’s quite a sight, I can tell you—an 8-pound Malshi (a cross between a Maltese and Shih Tzu) dragging me all over the town like she owns the place while I trail behind holding onto her pink leash (yeah, my wife’s idea of humor) and pretending I’m in charge.
In any case, the podcast introduced me to the principle of the arrival fallacy, a psychological concept that speaks to why so many of us believe that if only something specific were to happen, it would definitively and forever fix a big problem we have.
Examples of the arrival fallacy in jewelry retail could be hiring a million-dollar sales writer to finally get the business on track.
It might be an exciting new brand that will magically propel the business to new heights.
It could be a significant injection of cash to steady a rocky boat.
It might be an executive hire to take your business to untold heights.
It could even be someone knocking on your door and offering to buy your business so that you can do all that travel you’ve been dreaming about.
Of course, if aged inventory was worth the dollar you paid for it five years ago, and potential buyers had more money than sense, such an occurrence might just be possible.
To a large extent, the arrival fallacy could be any one of a thousand different things that you believe would fundamentally change the game for you, personally or professionally, if it were to happen.
The problem, of course, is that it’s impossible to arrive at any destination without taking the necessary first step in that direction.
We can’t get anywhere unless we are willing to make the commitment to do what is necessary, one step at a time, one decision at a time.
If you need that million-dollar salesperson, quit imagining what it would be like and take the necessary action to put a plan in place.
If you are craving a particular brand, start the budgeting process to pay for it, assess your environment to best position the brand for success, and lay out a framework for a launch strategy.
If you feel like you need a cash injection in your business, have a cash flow and financial analysis done to first ensure that you are not bleeding money unnecessarily right now. There are people and companies that can help you with that. Make the call.
Likewise, if your ambition is to sell your business, get help in understanding how you can best position for that and put the wheels in motion.
And if you need an executive hire to drive your business forward, write down exactly what that would look like, what it might cost, and make the necessary calls to get help identifying who that person might be.
“We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.” — Peter Smith
Seeing the final outcome as both the answer to your problems (the arrival fallacy) and an insurmountable obstacle to be kicked down the road for another day stymies progress and innovation.
It ends up being nothing more than an unfulfilling pipe dream, a self-defeating paradox of its own making.
Sketch out the bones of your idea and whether internally (a permanent hire) or externally (a consulting company), get the necessary help to execute your goal.
We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.
Happy retailing!
The Latest

Pete’s boundless curiosity extended beyond diamond cut and he was always eager to share his knowledge with others, no matter the topic.

Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Buccellati, and Vhernier had another successful holiday season, Richemont reported this week.

Our Piece of the Week is Lagos’ “Bee” brooch that was seen on the red carpet for the first time on Sunday.

Criminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.

Trevor Jonathan Wright led a crew in a string of armed robberies targeting South Asian-owned jewelry stores on the East Coast.


The program recognizes rising professionals in the jewelry industry.

A new lifestyle section and a watch showcase have been added to this year’s event.

How Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.

Avocados From Mexico is celebrating those who love to double-dip in game day guacamole with a 14-karat yellow gold tortilla chip necklace.

Petra Diamonds unearthed the 41.82-carat, Type IIb blue diamond at the Cullinan Mine.

The brand is trading its colorful fabric cords for Italian leather in its “Lasso” baby locket bracelets.

National Jeweler and Jewelers of America’s popular webinar series is evolving in 2026.

The department store chain owes millions to creditors like David Yurman, Roberto Coin, Kering, and LVMH.

The award-winning actor’s visionary approach and creativity echo the spirit of Boucheron, the brand said.

Edge Retail Academy honored Burnell’s Fine Jewelry in Wichita, Kansas, with its annual award for business excellence.

The family-owned jeweler’s new space is in a former wholesale produce market.

Ivel Sanchez Rivera, 52, has been arrested and charged in connection with the armed robbery of Tio Jewelers in Cape Coral, Florida.

The supplier’s online program allows customers to search and buy calibrated natural and lab-grown diamond melee, including in fancy shapes.

The new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.

A monthly podcast series for jewelry professionals

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights her favorite jewelry moments from the Golden Globes, and they are (mostly) white hot.

Yantzer is remembered for the profound influence he had on diamond cut grading as well as his contagious smile and quick wit.

The store closures are part of the retailer’s “Bold New Chapter” turnaround plan.

Through EventGuard, the company will offer event liability and cancellation insurance, including wedding coverage.

Chris Blakeslee has experience at Athleta and Alo Yoga. Kendra Scott will remain on board as executive chair and chief visionary officer.

The credit card companies’ surveys examined where consumers shopped, what they bought, and what they valued this holiday season.

Kimberly Miller has been promoted to the role.
























