Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry Retail
Smith shares wisdom he gleaned from a podcast he was listening to one morning while being walked by his dog, a Malshi named Sophie.

It’s quite a sight, I can tell you—an 8-pound Malshi (a cross between a Maltese and Shih Tzu) dragging me all over the town like she owns the place while I trail behind holding onto her pink leash (yeah, my wife’s idea of humor) and pretending I’m in charge.
In any case, the podcast introduced me to the principle of the arrival fallacy, a psychological concept that speaks to why so many of us believe that if only something specific were to happen, it would definitively and forever fix a big problem we have.
Examples of the arrival fallacy in jewelry retail could be hiring a million-dollar sales writer to finally get the business on track.
It might be an exciting new brand that will magically propel the business to new heights.
It could be a significant injection of cash to steady a rocky boat.
It might be an executive hire to take your business to untold heights.
It could even be someone knocking on your door and offering to buy your business so that you can do all that travel you’ve been dreaming about.
Of course, if aged inventory was worth the dollar you paid for it five years ago, and potential buyers had more money than sense, such an occurrence might just be possible.
To a large extent, the arrival fallacy could be any one of a thousand different things that you believe would fundamentally change the game for you, personally or professionally, if it were to happen.
The problem, of course, is that it’s impossible to arrive at any destination without taking the necessary first step in that direction.
We can’t get anywhere unless we are willing to make the commitment to do what is necessary, one step at a time, one decision at a time.
If you need that million-dollar salesperson, quit imagining what it would be like and take the necessary action to put a plan in place.
If you are craving a particular brand, start the budgeting process to pay for it, assess your environment to best position the brand for success, and lay out a framework for a launch strategy.
If you feel like you need a cash injection in your business, have a cash flow and financial analysis done to first ensure that you are not bleeding money unnecessarily right now. There are people and companies that can help you with that. Make the call.
Likewise, if your ambition is to sell your business, get help in understanding how you can best position for that and put the wheels in motion.
And if you need an executive hire to drive your business forward, write down exactly what that would look like, what it might cost, and make the necessary calls to get help identifying who that person might be.
“We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.” — Peter Smith
Seeing the final outcome as both the answer to your problems (the arrival fallacy) and an insurmountable obstacle to be kicked down the road for another day stymies progress and innovation.
It ends up being nothing more than an unfulfilling pipe dream, a self-defeating paradox of its own making.
Sketch out the bones of your idea and whether internally (a permanent hire) or externally (a consulting company), get the necessary help to execute your goal.
We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.
Happy retailing!
The Latest

As part of the leadership transition, Sherry Smith will take on the role of vice president of coaching strategy and development.

It marks the third time the country has headed the Kimberley Process. Ghana will serve as vice chair.

The new Bulova x Stetson designs highlight two animals often associated with the American West—the bison and the Texas Longhorn.

How Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.

Its residency at Yamron Jewelers will run through May 2026.


From influential executives to innovative designers, we pay tribute to the people we said goodbye to this year.

The retailer is expanding into areas with large Indian and South Asian populations.

Roseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.

The Italian brand has opened its first flagship amid the peaks of the Dolomites in Madonna di Campiglio, Italy.

The new curation at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County showcases rare gem and mineral specimens in their uncut, natural state.

The couple pleaded guilty to concealing at least $127 million in cash transactions at its precious metals businesses.

Consumers shared concerns about prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and politics in the survey’s write-in response section.

In February 2026, the auction house will move its headquarters to the former Steinway Hall, a neoclassical landmark on Billionaires’ Row.

The new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.

The former BHP Billiton leader and Gemfields chairman is remembered for his influential leadership throughout his 50-year mining career.

The LVMH-owned brand has partnered with the costume design union to revamp its award for 2026.

The luxury titan inked a deal to acquire an initial minority stake in the jewelry manufacturer with a pathway to full ownership by 2032.

The company’s curation of unsigned vintage and estate jewelry debuted at the Bloomingdale’s in Costa Mesa, California.

In the recent multi-shipment seizure, CBP also found counterfeit Audemars Piguet, Moncler, and Chrome Hearts items.

Helzberg’s Chief Retail Officer Mitch Maggart shared details about its tests of a new store concept rooted in an elevated luxury experience.

Jewelers of America execs and National Jeweler editors discuss tariffs, the sky-high gold price, and the engagement that broke the internet.

The luxury goods company said founder Ippolita Rostagno will remain at the brand’s helm.

Laura Burdese, who joined the Italian luxury brand in 2022, will take on the role in July.

The National Jeweler editors revisit the most noteworthy industry happenings and design trends from 2025.

Need a gift for the cat lover who has everything? Look no further than our latest Piece of the Week.

It purchased the “Grosse Pièce,” an ultra-complicated Audemars Piguet pocket watch from the ‘20s, for a record-breaking price at Sotheby’s.

The lab-grown diamond grower now offers custom engagement and fashion jewelry through its Kira Custom Lab Jewelry service.
























