Columnists

Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry Retail

ColumnistsAug 19, 2025

Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry Retail

Smith shares wisdom he gleaned from a podcast he was listening to one morning while being walked by his dog, a Malshi named Sophie.

National Jeweler columnist and jewelry sales expert Peter Smith
Peter Smith is an industry consultant, speaker, sales trainer, and author. He can be reached via email at TheRetailSmiths@gmail.com.
I was listening to a psychology podcast while the dog, Sophie, was walking me this morning.

It’s quite a sight, I can tell you—an 8-pound Malshi (a cross between a Maltese and Shih Tzu) dragging me all over the town like she owns the place while I trail behind holding onto her pink leash (yeah, my wife’s idea of humor) and pretending I’m in charge.

In any case, the podcast introduced me to the principle of the arrival fallacy, a psychological concept that speaks to why so many of us believe that if only something specific were to happen, it would definitively and forever fix a big problem we have.

Examples of the arrival fallacy in jewelry retail could be hiring a million-dollar sales writer to finally get the business on track.

It might be an exciting new brand that will magically propel the business to new heights.

It could be a significant injection of cash to steady a rocky boat.

It might be an executive hire to take your business to untold heights.

It could even be someone knocking on your door and offering to buy your business so that you can do all that travel you’ve been dreaming about.

Sophie Smith, Malshi dog
The boss of the Smith household and human walker Sophie Smith


Of course, if aged inventory was worth the dollar you paid for it five years ago, and potential buyers had more money than sense, such an occurrence might just be possible. 

To a large extent, the arrival fallacy could be any one of a thousand different things that you believe would fundamentally change the game for you, personally or professionally, if it were to happen. 

The problem, of course, is that it’s impossible to arrive at any destination without taking the necessary first step in that direction. 

We can’t get anywhere unless we are willing to make the commitment to do what is necessary, one step at a time, one decision at a time. 

 Related stories will be right here … 

If you need that million-dollar salesperson, quit imagining what it would be like and take the necessary action to put a plan in place. 

If you are craving a particular brand, start the budgeting process to pay for it, assess your environment to best position the brand for success, and lay out a framework for a launch strategy.  

If you feel like you need a cash injection in your business, have a cash flow and financial analysis done to first ensure that you are not bleeding money unnecessarily right now. There are people and companies that can help you with that. Make the call. 

Likewise, if your ambition is to sell your business, get help in understanding how you can best position for that and put the wheels in motion. 

And if you need an executive hire to drive your business forward, write down exactly what that would look like, what it might cost, and make the necessary calls to get help identifying who that person might be. 

“We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.” — Peter Smith  

Seeing the final outcome as both the answer to your problems (the arrival fallacy) and an insurmountable obstacle to be kicked down the road for another day stymies progress and innovation. 

It ends up being nothing more than an unfulfilling pipe dream, a self-defeating paradox of its own making. 

Sketch out the bones of your idea and whether internally (a permanent hire) or externally (a consulting company), get the necessary help to execute your goal. 

We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket. 

Happy retailing!

The Latest

Saks Fifth Avenue Club personal styling suite in Austin Texas
MajorsFeb 12, 2026
These 8 Saks Fifth Avenue Stores Are Closing

Parent company Saks Global is also closing nearly all Saks Off 5th locations, a Neiman Marcus store, and 14 personal styling suites.

Tudor Heart pendant on display at British Museum
CollectionsFeb 12, 2026
British Museum Raises $5M to Keep Jewel Linked to Henry VIII, Katherine of Aragon

It is believed the 24-karat heart-shaped enameled pendant was made for an event marking the betrothal of Princess Mary in 1518.

AGTA Spectrum, Cutting Edge Buyers Choice winners 2025
SourcingFeb 12, 2026
‘Cotton Candy’ Necklace, 35-Carat Kunzite Win 2025 ‘Buyer’s Choice’ Awards

The AGTA Spectrum and Cutting Edge “Buyer’s Choice” award winners were announced at the Spectrum Awards Gala last week.

MJSA Apprenticeship Guide
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench Jewelers

Launched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.

Kering Logo
Events & AwardsFeb 12, 2026
Kering Opens Entries for 2026 Sustainability-Focused Award

The “Kering Generation Award x Jewelry” returns for its second year with “Second Chance, First Choice” as its theme.

Weekly QuizFeb 12, 2026
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Halle Berry’s vintage diamond and sapphire engagement ring
TrendsFeb 11, 2026
Halle Berry’s Retro Engagement Ring Is a Sapphire-Set Stunner

Sourced by For Future Reference Vintage, the yellow gold ring has a round center stone surrounded by step-cut sapphires.

Francesca’s storefront
MajorsFeb 11, 2026
Francesca’s Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Again

The clothing and accessories chain announced last month it would be closing all of its stores.

JamAlert 1872x1052.png
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell Jammers

Criminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.

Zales x Sweethearts Capsule Collection Heart Charms
CollectionsFeb 11, 2026
Zales Turns Sweethearts Into Jewelry for Valentine’s Day Collection

The “Zales x Sweethearts” collection features three mystery heart charms engraved with classic sayings seen on the Valentine’s Day candies.

2026 Gemvision Symposium
TechnologyFeb 11, 2026
Gemvision Symposium 2026 Slated for April

The event will include panel discussions, hands-on demonstrations of new digital manufacturing tools, and a jewelry design contest.

The Jewelry Symposium
Events & AwardsFeb 11, 2026
TJS Announces Roundtable, Launches New App

Registration is now open for The Jewelry Symposium, set to take place in Detroit from May 16-19.

The Luanda Accord signatories at the African Mining Indaba in Cape Town, South Africa
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
At Meeting in South Africa, Support for Natural Diamonds Picks Up Steam

Namibia has formally signed the Luanda Accord, while two key industry organizations pledged to join the Natural Diamond Council.

Bad Bunny Performing Super Bowl LX Halftime Show
TrendsFeb 10, 2026
Bad Bunny Wears Football-Shaped ‘Desert Diamond’ for Halftime Performance

Lady Gaga, Cardi B, and Karol G also went with diamond jewelry for Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show honoring Puerto Rico.

Miraki Jewels heart diamond signet ring
SurveysFeb 10, 2026
Shoppers to Spend Big on Jewelry This Valentine’s Day, Says NRF

Jewelry is expected to be the No. 1 gift this year in terms of dollars spent.

Pomellato Nudo toi et moi ring
FinancialsFeb 10, 2026
Kering Plans Transformation as 2025 Sales Sink 13%

As star brand Gucci continues to struggle, the luxury titan plans to announce a new roadmap to return to growth.

Stuller color of the year 2026 Signature Red jewelry and gemstones
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
AGTA To Debut ‘Stuller Color of the Year’ Spectrum Awards Category

The new category asks entrants for “exceptional” interpretations of the supplier’s 2026 color of the year, which is “Signature Red.”

Stock image of loose polished diamonds
Policies & IssuesFeb 09, 2026
U.S., India Trade Deal One Step Closer to Being Finalized

The White House issued an official statement on the deal, which will eliminate tariffs on loose natural diamonds and gemstones from India.

CASE Awards Graphic
Events & AwardsFeb 09, 2026
JA Now Accepting Entries for 2026 CASE Awards

Entries for the jewelry design competition will be accepted through March 20.

James Free Jewelers Dayton Ohio store
IndependentsFeb 09, 2026
James Free Jewelers Unveils Revamped Flagship

The Ohio jeweler’s new layout features a curated collection of brand boutiques to promote storytelling and host in-store events.

KIL NYC The Pierced Padlock Wounded
TrendsFeb 09, 2026
These 14 Jewels Will Melt Your Heart This Valentine’s Day

From heart motifs to pink pearls, Valentine’s Day is filled with jewelry imbued with love.

Stock image of a gavel
CrimeFeb 06, 2026
Florida Man Sentenced After Selling Fake Native American Jewelry for a Decade

Prosecutors say the man attended arts and craft fairs claiming he was a third-generation jeweler who was a member of the Pueblo tribe.

Luciano Rodembusch
FinancialsFeb 06, 2026
Pandora’s North America GM Departs Amid Executive Changes

New CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier shared her priorities for the Danish jewelry company this year as part of its fourth-quarter results.

Cece Jewellery Bespoke Wuthering Heights Signet Rings on Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi
TrendsFeb 06, 2026
Margot Robbie, Jacob Elordi Wear Matching Cece Jewellery Signet Rings

Our Piece of the Week picks are these bespoke rings the “Wuthering Heights” stars have been spotted wearing during the film’s press tour.

Pandora platinum
MajorsFeb 05, 2026
Pandora to Begin Selling Platinum-Plated Jewelry

The introduction of platinum plating will reduce its reliance on silver amid volatile price swings, said Pandora.

Entrance to the Jwaneng diamond mine in Botswana
SourcingFeb 05, 2026
De Beers Lowers Production Guidance for 2026, Anglo Mulls Another Writedown

It would be the third impairment charge in three years on De Beers Group, which continues to grapple with a “challenging” diamond market.

Rendering of renovated Borsheims store
IndependentsFeb 05, 2026
Borsheims to Undergo Massive Renovation in the Spring

The Omaha jewelry store’s multi-million-dollar renovation is scheduled to begin in mid-May and take about six months.

Marco Bicego Paradise Amethyst Long Necklace
CollectionsFeb 05, 2026
Marco Bicego’s Amethyst Collection Travels to a Purple Paradise

The “Paradise Amethyst” collection focuses on amethyst, pink tourmaline, garnet, and 18-karat yellow gold beads.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy