Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry Retail
Smith shares wisdom he gleaned from a podcast he was listening to one morning while being walked by his dog, a Malshi named Sophie.

It’s quite a sight, I can tell you—an 8-pound Malshi (a cross between a Maltese and Shih Tzu) dragging me all over the town like she owns the place while I trail behind holding onto her pink leash (yeah, my wife’s idea of humor) and pretending I’m in charge.
In any case, the podcast introduced me to the principle of the arrival fallacy, a psychological concept that speaks to why so many of us believe that if only something specific were to happen, it would definitively and forever fix a big problem we have.
Examples of the arrival fallacy in jewelry retail could be hiring a million-dollar sales writer to finally get the business on track.
It might be an exciting new brand that will magically propel the business to new heights.
It could be a significant injection of cash to steady a rocky boat.
It might be an executive hire to take your business to untold heights.
It could even be someone knocking on your door and offering to buy your business so that you can do all that travel you’ve been dreaming about.
Of course, if aged inventory was worth the dollar you paid for it five years ago, and potential buyers had more money than sense, such an occurrence might just be possible.
To a large extent, the arrival fallacy could be any one of a thousand different things that you believe would fundamentally change the game for you, personally or professionally, if it were to happen.
The problem, of course, is that it’s impossible to arrive at any destination without taking the necessary first step in that direction.
We can’t get anywhere unless we are willing to make the commitment to do what is necessary, one step at a time, one decision at a time.
If you need that million-dollar salesperson, quit imagining what it would be like and take the necessary action to put a plan in place.
If you are craving a particular brand, start the budgeting process to pay for it, assess your environment to best position the brand for success, and lay out a framework for a launch strategy.
If you feel like you need a cash injection in your business, have a cash flow and financial analysis done to first ensure that you are not bleeding money unnecessarily right now. There are people and companies that can help you with that. Make the call.
Likewise, if your ambition is to sell your business, get help in understanding how you can best position for that and put the wheels in motion.
And if you need an executive hire to drive your business forward, write down exactly what that would look like, what it might cost, and make the necessary calls to get help identifying who that person might be.
“We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.” — Peter Smith
Seeing the final outcome as both the answer to your problems (the arrival fallacy) and an insurmountable obstacle to be kicked down the road for another day stymies progress and innovation.
It ends up being nothing more than an unfulfilling pipe dream, a self-defeating paradox of its own making.
Sketch out the bones of your idea and whether internally (a permanent hire) or externally (a consulting company), get the necessary help to execute your goal.
We all have our own ideas about what a lottery win might feel like, but you can’t win without buying a ticket.
Happy retailing!
The Latest

The filmmaker’s personal F.P. Journe “FFC” prototype was the star of Phillips’ recent record-setting watch auction in New York.

The new location in the Design District pays homage to Miami’s Art Deco heritage and its connection to the ocean.

Inflations, tariffs, and politics—including the government shutdown—were among consumers’ top concerns last month.

How Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.

“Longtime favorite” presenters, as well as first-time speakers, will lead talks and workshops at the annual event in Tucson next year.


Silas Smith of Meridian Metalworks won the challenge with his pendant that blends Australian and American landscapes.

The sale of the 31.68-carat, sunset-hued stone was part of Sotheby’s first series of events and auctions in Abu Dhabi.

Roseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.

The collection features characters and motifs from Ukrainian folklore, including an enchanted mirror and a magic egg.

MatrixGold 3.11, the newest version of the jewelry design program, offers more flexibility, precision, and creative control.

The pavilion will be part of the 2026 JA New York Spring show, scheduled for March 15 to 17.

Kadet, a 1994 National Jeweler Retailer Hall of Fame inductee, helped grow the family-owned retailer in the Chicago area and beyond.

Billed as the world’s smallest wearable, Lumia Health’s new smart earrings have a health tracker subtly embedded in the back.

Don’t let those with December birthdays feel blue. Help them celebrate their month with blue zircon, turquoise, and tanzanite.

The new pink sapphire version of the piece dances with its wearer in the brand’s “Icons After Dark” holiday campaign.

A choice that’s generated a lot of commentary, Pantone says “Cloud Dancer” marks a fresh start and encourages relaxation and creativity.

The manufacturer’s holiday campaign features a gift guide filled with trending designs and jewelry that can be personalized.

The man was charged with theft, accused of ingesting the necklace while in a jewelry store in Auckland, New Zealand.

The Florida independent expanded its store from 8,000 to 14,000 square feet, fulfilling the vision of its late co-founder, Jim Dunn.

Sponsored by De Beers Group

The classic 5600 series G-Shock has been scaled down to about a tenth of its size, becoming a fully functioning watch ring.

The association’s annual conference and gala will take place Feb. 4, 2026, during the Tucson gem shows.

The January show will include a workshop for jewelry retailers on implementing AI to strengthen their businesses.

Fellow musician Maxx Morando proposed to the star with a chunky, cushion-cut diamond ring designed by Jacquie Aiche.

The retailer, which sells billions in fine jewelry and watches, is suing the Trump administration and U.S. Customs and Border Patrol.

Black Friday is still the most popular shopping day over the five-day holiday weekend, as per the National Retail Federation’s survey.

The historic egg, crafted for Russia's ruling family prior to the revolution, was the star of Christie’s recent auction of works by Fabergé.
























