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Consumer Confidence Slips in August Amid Job, Income Worries
Plans for dining out, booking vacations, and buying big-ticket items were down.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August as consumers worried about the labor market and their income.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in August, weighed down by worries about jobs and income.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August from an upwardly revised 98.7 in July.
“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 131.2 in August from an upwardly revised 132.8 in July.
“Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index,” said Guichard.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 74.8 from an upwardly revised 76 in July.
It marks the seventh consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions,” said Guichard.
Consumer confidence was a mixed bag across demographics. It fell for consumers under 35 years old, remained stable for consumers aged 35 to 55, and rose for consumers over 55.
It was also a mixed response by income groups with no pattern emerging, said the organization.
By partisan affiliation, confidence weakened in August for Republicans and Democrats but was little changed for Independents.
As for the write-in responses, references to tariffs and the associated higher prices increased.
Mentions of high prices, including food and groceries, and inflation were also on the rise.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations were on the rise following three consecutive months of easing, reaching 6.2 percent in August, up from 5.7 percent in July. It remained below its peak of 7 percent in April.
There was also a rise in the mentions of jobs and employment in the write-in responses, though these remained low on the list of concerns.
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The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August from an upwardly revised 98.7 in July.
“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 131.2 in August from an upwardly revised 132.8 in July.
“Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index,” said Guichard.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 74.8 from an upwardly revised 76 in July.
It marks the seventh consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions,” said Guichard.
Consumer confidence was a mixed bag across demographics. It fell for consumers under 35 years old, remained stable for consumers aged 35 to 55, and rose for consumers over 55.
It was also a mixed response by income groups with no pattern emerging, said the organization.
By partisan affiliation, confidence weakened in August for Republicans and Democrats but was little changed for Independents.
As for the write-in responses, references to tariffs and the associated higher prices increased.
Mentions of high prices, including food and groceries, and inflation were also on the rise.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations were on the rise following three consecutive months of easing, reaching 6.2 percent in August, up from 5.7 percent in July. It remained below its peak of 7 percent in April.
There was also a rise in the mentions of jobs and employment in the write-in responses, though these remained low on the list of concerns.
As for stock prices, consumers’ outlook worsened in August, with 47 percent of consumers expecting to see stock prices rise over the next 12 months, down from 49 percent in July.
More respondents expected stock prices to decrease, up to 30 percent from 28 percent in July.
As for interest rates, the percentage of respondents expecting rates to rise rose to 54 percent from 53 percent in July. Fewer consumers expected interest rates to fall, down to 20.9 percent from 21.4 percent in July.
Consumers’ views of their family’s current and future financial situation both improved in August.
The percentage of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months rose in August to the highest level since its peak in April.
Plans to purchase cars, both new and used, increased in August. Plans to buy homes remained stable following a decline last month.
Plans to buy big-ticket items were down overall, but it did depend on the item.
The strongest increase was seen in washers and dryers, while TVs and tablets saw the largest decline.
Plans to purchase services in non-discretionary categories, like financial services and car and home maintenance, improved.
Plans for discretionary spending, like dining out and entertainment, were down.
The percentage of respondents planning to book vacations, both abroad and in the U.S., fell for the second consecutive month.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for September are scheduled to be released on Sept. 30.
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