Inflation, Rising Interest Rates Put a Damper on Holiday Sales
Holiday sales fell short of the National Retail Federation’s expectations, rising only 5 percent year-over-year.

Retail sales during the Nov. 1-Dec. 31 period were up 5 percent year-over-year to $936.3 billion, falling short of the NRF’s forecast of 6 to 8 percent sales growth and $942.6 billion-$960.4 billion in total sales.
The 2022 holiday season was up against tough comparables, with last year’s sales up nearly 14 percent to a then-record-breaking $889.3 billion.
When calculating retail sales, NRF excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants to zero in on core retail. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.
Online and other non-store sales rose 10 percent to $261.6 billion, in line with NRF’s forecast of growth between 10 and 12 percent and total sales of $262.8 billion to $267.6 billion.
“The last two years of retail sales have been unprecedented, and no one ever thought it was sustainable,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Despite the year-end slowdown, annual sales were strong in the face of historic inflation and rising interest rates.
Full-year sales were up 7 percent year-over-year to $4.9 trillion, in line with NRF’s forecast of 6-8 percent growth for the year.
“Consumers shopped in record numbers and retailers delivered positive holiday experiences to inflation-wary consumers, offering great products at more promotional price levels to fit their stretched budgets,” said Shay.
“The fact that we saw retail sales growth on top of December’s 14 percent gain in 2022 shows the resilience of consumers and the creativity of retailers in driving consumption and economic activity while addressing high inflation and continued cost pressures.”
The average holiday sales growth over the previous 10 years was around 5 percent, making this year’s numbers all the more impressive, noted NRF, especially in light of the economic headwinds.
Inflation and rising interest rates weren’t the only Grinches of the holiday season.
“We knew it could be touch-and-go for final holiday sales given early shopping in October that likely pulled some sales forward plus price pressures and cold, stormy weather,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“The pace of spending was choppy, and consumers may have pulled back more than we had hoped, but these numbers show that they navigated a challenging, inflation-driven environment reasonably well.”
For the holiday season, all but two of the nine retail categories NRF tracks saw year-over-year growth.
Growth was led by online sales (10 percent), followed by grocery and beverage stores (8 percent), then general merchandise and sporting goods stores (both up 4 percent).
The decliners were electronics and appliance stores (6 percent) and furniture stores (1 percent).
“The bottom line is that consumers are still engaged and shopping despite everything happening around them,” said Kleinhenz.
The Latest

The company had a solid second quarter, with sales of non-charm jewelry outpacing sales of pieces in its core collections.

Taylor Swift dons the vibrant pair in new promotional imagery for her upcoming album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” set to release in October.

Its investment in micromechanics expert Inhotec will preserve skills essential to the watchmaking industry as a whole, said the company.

As a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.

Nicolette Bianchi joins the wholesale provider with more than 15 years of cross-industry experience in marketing and product development.


Her new “Ocean” collection was inspired by Myanmar’s traditional articulated fish jewelry, with depictions of flounder, catfish, and more.

Longtime Casio executive Yusuke Suzuki is the new president and CEO of Casio’s U.S. subsidiary.

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.

The full-day sourcing and networking event, slated for Aug. 18, will be followed by the fifth annual Mega Mixer Summer Soirée.

Model Georgina Rodríguez received a rock of an engagement ring, with her diamond estimated to be 35 carats, experts say.

The board elected 9 new directors at its recent ICA Congress in Brazil.

Three winners will receive a custom ring from Honest Hands Ring Co. inlaid with a piece of history from Denver-based distillery Stranahan’s.

The new inventory, all untreated, features vibrant hues and unique bicolor combinations.

Acquired by a tech investor, the historic brand will continue to focus on jewelry, accessories, and timepieces.

President Donald Trump issued an executive order extending the pause on higher tariffs to November as negotiations with China continue.

The “Thunderbird Slab” collection features a thunderbird motif as a symbol of power, protection, and boundless possibility.

Columnists Jen Cullen Williams and Duvall O’Steen share tips on how to elevate your professional image.

Peter Damian Arguello, a jeweler in the Denver suburb of Wheat Ridge, was found dead inside his store in November 2023.

The retailer, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is becoming part of the Berkshire Hathaway Jewelry Group with Helzberg.

The Continental Buying Group’s 2025 Tampa Experience Show is slated for Sept. 8-10.

Associate Editor Lauren McLemore recently attended a fabrics trade show where a trend forecaster shared her predictions for summer 2027.

The company raised its full-year sales guidance while noting it has not yet assessed the potential impact of the latest tariff news.

The organization has raised more than $1.3 million for charity since its inception.

The brand’s latest iteration of a bezel-set diamond bangle features clean lines and a timeless design for a new modern silhouette.

The first watch in the series commemorates his participation in the Civil Rights movement, marching from Selma to Montgomery in 1965.

The catalog contains a complete listing of all the loose gemstones in stock, as well as information about the properties of each stone.

The company added a retailer dashboard to its site and three new birds to its charm collection, the cardinal, blue jay, and hummingbird.