Surveys

Deloitte Predicts Muted Growth this Holiday Season

SurveysSep 15, 2022

Deloitte Predicts Muted Growth this Holiday Season

Holiday retail sales are expected to be up 4 to 6 percent, compared with 15 percent growth in 2021.

2021_Holiday gifts in bags.jpg
Holiday retail sales in 2022 are expected to increase between 4 to 6 percent year-over-year to $1.47 trillion, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
New York—Holiday retail sales growth in 2022 will pale in comparison to last year’s strong numbers, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
 
Sales for the season are expected to increase 4 to 6 percent year-over-year to $1.47 trillion.
 
In the same period last year, from November to January, holiday sales soared 15 percent over the year prior to $1.39 trillion.
 
The lower projected growth is a reflection of the slowdown in the economy this year, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster.
 
"Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending,” he said.
 
Spending on consumer services, like restaurants, is expected to grow as pandemic restrictions ease.
 
 Related stories will be right here … 
 
Inflation should raise dollar sales, but retailers will likely see less growth in sales volume, he added.
 
The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.1 percent month-over-month in August and 8.3 percent year-over-year.
 
Economists had expected CPI to fall 0.1 percent month-over-month, especially since energy prices were down, but a rise in food and shelter costs offset that decline.
 
"As inflation weighs on consumer demand, we can expect consumers to continue to shift how they spend their holiday budget this upcoming season," said Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader.
 
E-commerce sales, notably, are expected to put on an even stronger performance this year, forecast to grow 12 to 14 percent with sales between $260 billion to $264 billion.
 
In 2021, e-commerce sales grew 8 percent to $231 billion.
 
"Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending,” said Handrinos.
 
“Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season."
 

The Latest

Kristen Bell, Angela Bassett, Lisa Manobal
EditorsSep 15, 2025
Skipping the Necklace, Embracing Snakes: The Best Jewelry From the 2025 Emmy Awards

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco shares eight of her favorite jewelry looks from the 77th annual Primetime Emmy Awards, held Sunday night.

Buffalo Emerald
SourcingSep 15, 2025
Gemfields Achieves $32M at High-Quality Emerald Auction

It included the sale of the 11,685-carat “Imboo” emerald that was recently discovered at Kagem.

8.33-carat emerald-cut no-oil Brazilian emerald, A. Kleiman & Co.
SourcingSep 15, 2025
AGTA Elects 8 Members to Board of Directors

The newly elected directors will officially take office in February 2026 and will be introduced at the organization’s membership meeting.

reDollar-fine-jewelry-department.jpg
Brought to you by
reDollar.com Is Rolling Out the Next Level Jewelry, Diamond & Watch Consignment Program

With their unmatched services and low fees, reDollar.com is challenging some big names in the online consignment world.

Rough montana sapphire
EditorsSep 12, 2025
Out & About: Mining Sapphires in Rock Creek, Montana

Associate Editor Lauren McLemore headed out West for a visit to Potentate Mining’s operation hosted by gemstone wholesaler Parlé Gems.

Weekly QuizSep 12, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Arunashi Fordite and Rhodolite Earrings
TrendsSep 12, 2025
Piece of the Week: Arunashi’s Fordite and Rhodolite Earrings

Fordite is a man-made material created from the layers of dried enamel paint that dripped onto the floors of automotive factories.

Susan Jacques and Al Gilbertson
Events & AwardsSep 12, 2025
Al Gilbertson Wins 2025 Robert M. Shipley Award

Gilbertson has worked as a researcher, jeweler, lapidary artist, appraiser, and business owner throughout his decades in the industry.

japac-btyb.png
Brought to you by
Rallying Call for the Jewelry Industry on Tariffs and Other Key Issues

Jewelers of America is leading the charge to protect the industry amidst rising economic threats.

Supreme Court stock image
Policies & IssuesSep 11, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case in November

A decision likely won’t come until January 2026 at the earliest, and the tariffs remain in effect until then.

Tabayer’s Nordstrom Shop-in-Shop
MajorsSep 11, 2025
Tabayer Opens Nordstrom Shop-In-Shop

Located in the revamped jewelry hall at the retailer’s New York City flagship, this opening is Tabayer’s first shop-in-shop.

De Beers education app on mobile phone
SourcingSep 11, 2025
Need to Sell More Natural Diamonds? De Beers Has an App for That

The new, free app offers accessible educational content, like games and podcasts, for U.S. retailers.

Gold jewelry on a scale
MajorsSep 10, 2025
Stuller to Swap Gold Scrap for Full Credit to Account

As the gold price rises, the manufacturer is offering a 100 percent payout through Sept. 30 for gold clean scrap.

Jacob and Co Loewe headphones
SourcingSep 10, 2025
Tech Meets Style in the New Loewe x Jacob & Co. Headphones

Jacob & Co. partnered with the German technology company on two pairs of headphones, one set with diamonds and the other with sapphires.

Tiffany & Co Favrile Beetle Necklace in Frankenstein
TrendsSep 10, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Archival Jewels Bring Life to ‘Frankenstein’

Guillermo del Toro’s 2025 “Frankenstein” will feature 27 jewels and objects from the storied brand, including pieces from its archives.

24 Karat Club banquet
MajorsSep 10, 2025
24 Karat Club of New York’s Banquet to Return to Waldorf Astoria

The Waldorf Astoria New York’s grand reopening this past summer means a homecoming for the industry group’s annual event.

Anglo American’s Quellaveco copper mine in Peru
SourcingSep 09, 2025
Anglo American to Merge With Canadian Copper Miner

Anglo plans to merge with Teck Resources Ltd. to form Anglo Teck. The deal changes nothing about its plans to offload De Beers.

The Mellon Blue diamond
AuctionsSep 09, 2025
‘The Mellon Blue’ to Return to Auction, This Time at Christie’s

The 9.51-carat fancy vivid blue diamond, which set two world auction records at Sotheby’s in 2014, is estimated to fetch up to $30 million.

Dianne Batista Phillips Auctions
AuctionsSep 09, 2025
Phillips Names Dianne Batista Head of Jewels, New York

The industry veteran joins the auction house as it looks to solidify its footprint in the jewelry market.

Anastacia Lauren, Elle Jerge, Logan Nye
MajorsSep 09, 2025
MJSA Education Foundation Announces 2025 Scholarship Winners

The nonprofit awarded four students pursuing a professional career in jewelry making and design with $2,250 each.

Korman jewelry store Austin
IndependentsSep 08, 2025
Take a Look Inside the New Korman Store in Austin

The Texas-based jeweler has also undergone a brand refresh, debuting a new website and logo.

Logos for Manufacturing Jewelers & Suppliers of America and Jewelers of America
MajorsSep 08, 2025
MJSA Is Officially Now Under JA’s Umbrella

The two organizations have finalized and signed the affiliation agreement announced in May.

Sothebys JAR and Suzanne Belperron jewels
AuctionsSep 08, 2025
Sotheby’s To Auction ‘Exceptional’ Collection of JAR, Suzanne Belperron Jewels

The single-owner sale will headline Sotheby's inaugural jewelry auction at the Breuer building, its new global headquarters, this December.

A street in Carlsbad California
Events & AwardsSep 08, 2025
27 Can’t-Miss Converge Sessions, Events

From sunrise yoga to tariffs talks, these are some events to check out at the upcoming inaugural event.

National Jeweler columnist Peter Smith
ColumnistsSep 05, 2025
Peter Smith: A Lasting Lesson From Maurice Tempelsman

Smith recalls a bit of wisdom the industry leader, who died last week, shared at a diamond conference years ago.

Jamie Turner Victoria Labradorite Necklace
CollectionsSep 05, 2025
Piece of the Week: Jamie Turner’s ‘Victoria’ Necklace

The “Victoria” necklace features a labradorite hugged by diamond accents in 18-karat yellow gold.

Stock image of the U.S. Supreme Court
Policies & IssuesSep 05, 2025
Trump Takes Tariffs Case to the Supreme Court

Two lower courts have moved to block the import taxes, which will remain in place as the legal battle continues.

Patrick Mahomes Hublot campaign
WatchesSep 05, 2025
Patrick Mahomes Is the New Hublot Brand Ambassador

The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback shares Hublot’s dedication to pursuing greatness, the Swiss watchmaker said.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy