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Consumer Confidence Slips in July
Survey respondents were concerned about the rising prices of food and groceries as well as unemployment.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index slipped in July as worries persisted about rising prices.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence slipped in July amid concerns about the rising price of groceries and the labor market.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
The survey period ran from July 1–22, which included the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 114.9 in July from an upwardly revised 118.5 in June.
It marked the third consecutive month in which views on the present situation skewed more pessimistic, with views of the current business and labor conditions both softening in July.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, was flat at 74.7.
It marked the 18th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Consumers’ expectations for business conditions and household income softened, while views on the future labor market improved somewhat, though it remained negative.
By demographic, confidence for consumers under the age of 35 was once again the highest, while those aged 35-54 saw the greatest improvement.
By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis was mixed with higher-income groups generally being more optimistic.
By generation, confidence for Gen Z and Millennials remained the highest, while confidence fell for the Silent Generation.
By political affiliation, confidence among Democrats and Independents was lower while Republicans were slightly more positive.
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The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
The survey period ran from July 1–22, which included the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 114.9 in July from an upwardly revised 118.5 in June.
It marked the third consecutive month in which views on the present situation skewed more pessimistic, with views of the current business and labor conditions both softening in July.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, was flat at 74.7.
It marked the 18th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Consumers’ expectations for business conditions and household income softened, while views on the future labor market improved somewhat, though it remained negative.
By demographic, confidence for consumers under the age of 35 was once again the highest, while those aged 35-54 saw the greatest improvement.
By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis was mixed with higher-income groups generally being more optimistic.
By generation, confidence for Gen Z and Millennials remained the highest, while confidence fell for the Silent Generation.
By political affiliation, confidence among Democrats and Independents was lower while Republicans were slightly more positive.
Consumers’ write-in responses about the economy continued to be mostly pessimistic, with elevated references to prices along with oil and gas.
More respondents commented on the rising prices of food and groceries, as well as jobs and unemployment.
Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, though The Conference Board noted there could be an increase in the revised data for July as the conflict in the Middle East accelerates.
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations eased compared with June.
Most consumers (61 percent) expect to see higher interest rates over the next 12 months. Respondents also expect higher stock prices a year from now.
Consumers’ views of their family’s current financial situation improved following three consecutive months of decline, though future views on the metric were less optimistic.
Overall, expectations for a recession in the next 12 months remain low, as more respondents said it is “somewhat likely” while fewer said it was “very likely.”
These measures are not included when calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.
As for what consumers plan to buy over the next six months, furniture and smart phones are the most popular items in the durable goods category. Plans to buy TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines also rose.
Plans to purchase a home or a car continued to trend upward.
As for spending on services, consumers plan to spend more on this category over the next six months.
The top three categories in the segment are restaurants, bars, and takeout, followed by streaming, internet, and mobile services, and then beauty and personal care.
Consumers also plan to spend more on activities, like movies, hotels for personal travel, airfare, amusement parks, and museums and historical sites.
Plans to spend on travel picked up in July after a soft year, with domestic travel plans recovering while foreign travel plans softened.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for August are scheduled to be released on August 25.
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