Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
NYC Jewelry Week 2025: 12 Must-See EventsWith more than 140 activations taking place in New York City now through Nov. 23, these 12 events are can’t-miss moments.
SurveysNov 24, 2020
NRF Predicts Happy Holidays for Retailers
Holiday sales could rise more than 5 percent this season, but the rising number of new COVID-19 cases remains a threat.
Holiday sales are expected to increase between 3.6 to 5.2 percent year-over-year to $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion, as per the National Retail Federation.
New York—The National Retail Federation’s forecast for the holiday season is merry and bright.
Holiday sales are expected to increase between 3.6 to 5.2 percent year-over-year to $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion.
Sales were up 4 percent last year to $729.1 billion while average holiday sales have increased 3.5 percent over the past five years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
The forecast usually comes out in October, but the trade organization said it needed more time to work through the uncertainties in the current climate, taking into consideration the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with social unrest.
“Our outlook for the holiday season is very bright,” NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on a call about holiday sales Monday.
Shay opened the call by acknowledging the emphasis retailers have put on health and safety to protect employees, customers, and the communities they serve.
He also noted retailers kicked the holiday season into high gear earlier than usual this year, beginning in October.
Retailers are expected to hire between 475,000 and 575,000 seasonal workers during the holiday season, compared with 562,000 last year.
The NRF noted some of the hiring may have been pulled forward into October since holiday preparation began earlier this year than in the past.
Consumers have responded positively to that earlier start, the NRF said.
From Mother’s Day to Thanksgiving, consumers have been looking for reasons to celebrate throughout the pandemic and are moving into “consumption mode” as the holidays approach, Shay said.
Shoppers and retailers alike have adapted to the situation at hand, he said, as retail sales have been positive over the last six months.
While that growth has not been distributed evenly across all retail categories, Shay noted, there was “tremendous momentum” heading into the second half of the year.
However, the pandemic brings with it uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“I can’t think of a period with so many simultaneous factors hitting the economy at once,” he said on the call.
However, as the economy improves, the ability to spend increases as well.
Kleinhenz highlighted rising home values, a strong stock market, and record savings bolstered by government stimulus payments.
Jobs and wages are growing while energy costs are low. Less money being spent on personal services, travel, and entertainment due to COVID-19 has left money on the table for retail spending.
This year, more of that money will be spent online, with online
and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, expected to increase between 20 percent and 30 percent to between $202.5 billion and $218.4 billion, up from $168.7 billion last year.
As for the weather, the National Weather Service is predicting cooler and wetter weather in the north and warmer and drier weather in the south, a combination that has previously signaled stronger retail holiday spending.
But the rising number of new COVID-19 cases is still a threat to consumers and the economy alike.
A tightening of restrictions in areas seeing a surge in new cases could mean another round of closures for non-essential businesses.
Shay said the store closures were a result of “arbitrary decision making” and “wreaked havoc on communities.”
“The entire framework in many cases was just flawed because the restrictions about which businesses could or should be open was based not on health and safety or the way they operated those businesses, but on the products sold by those retailers.”
“The problem is largely not what happens in stores, but outside of the stores.”
With a viable vaccine on the horizon, Shay and Kleinhenz both agreed it could translate into greater spending, even if consumers won’t see the benefits right away.
Shay recalled a tax reform measure signed a few days before Christmas 2017. The measure didn’t take effect until 2018 and no benefits would be seen until taxes were filed in 2019, but just the prospect of tax reform had a positive impact on consumer sentiment.
“There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season,” said Kleinhenz in a press release.
As for the weather, the National Weather Service is predicting cooler and wetter weather in the north and warmer and drier weather in the south, a combination that has previously signaled stronger retail holiday spending.
But the rising number of new COVID-19 cases is still a threat to consumers and the economy alike.
A tightening of restrictions in areas seeing a surge in new cases could mean another round of closures for non-essential businesses.
Shay said the store closures were a result of “arbitrary decision making” and “wreaked havoc on communities.”
“The entire framework in many cases was just flawed because the restrictions about which businesses could or should be open was based not on health and safety or the way they operated those businesses, but on the products sold by those retailers.”
“The problem is largely not what happens in stores, but outside of the stores.”
With a viable vaccine on the horizon, Shay and Kleinhenz both agreed it could translate into greater spending, even if consumers won’t see the benefits right away.
Shay recalled a tax reform measure signed a few days before Christmas 2017. The measure didn’t take effect until 2018 and no benefits would be seen until taxes were filed in 2019, but just the prospect of tax reform had a positive impact on consumer sentiment.
“There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season,” said Kleinhenz in a press release.
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsNov 18, 2025
Lugano Diamonds Files for Bankruptcy, Looking for BuyerThe Chapter 11 filing follows the resignation of CEO Moti Ferder, who stepped down after an investigation into the company’s finances.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
A Giant, Bejeweled Moldy Berry Is on Display in LAThe artwork is part of an exhibition featuring works by Kathleen Ryan, an artist known for her gemstone-studded rotting fruit sculptures.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
SourcingNov 18, 2025
Another Diamond Company CEO Steps DownMark Wall, president and CEO of Canadian mining company Mountain Province Diamonds, will vacate his position next month.
Weekly QuizNov 13, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeNov 17, 2025
Police Searching for 2 Suspects in Murder of Father, Son Jewelers Faustino Alamo Dominguez and his son, 25-year-old Luis Angel Alamo, were gunned down following an armed robbery at their jewelry store.
GradingNov 17, 2025
IGI Announces New President of North AmericaTiffany & Co. veteran Jeffrey Bennett has stepped into the role.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
MajorsNov 17, 2025
Look Inside Robbins Brothers Fine Jewelers’ New Pasadena FlagshipThe showroom is located in a historic 1920s building in the Playhouse District.
Policies & IssuesNov 14, 2025
U.S., Switzerland Reach Deal That Drops Tariff to 15%The Swiss government announced the deal, which cuts the tax on Swiss imports by more than half, on social media Friday morning.
AuctionsNov 14, 2025
Napoleon’s Diamond Brooch Blows Away Auction Estimates A buyer paid $4.4 million for the piece, which Napoleon wore on his hat for special occasions and left behind when he fled Waterloo.
FinancialsNov 14, 2025
Richemont’s Q2 Jewelry Sales Up 12%Plus, how tariffs and the rising price of gold are affecting its watch and jewelry brands.
CollectionsNov 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Silvia Furmanovich’s ‘Butterflies in Flight’ Jewelry BoxFurmanovich designed the box to hold Mellerio’s “Color Queen,” a high jewelry collection consisting of 10 rings.
Events & AwardsNov 14, 2025
JCK Names New Event DirectorJennifer Hopf, who has been with JCK since 2022, will lead the execution of the long-running jewelry trade show.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
127-Year-Old New Orleans Jeweler to CloseAdler’s Jewelry is set to close its two stores as 82-year-old owner Coleman E. Adler II retires.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
Green Lake Jewelry Works to Move to New Seattle StudioFounder Jim Tuttle shared how a dedication to craftsmanship and meaningful custom jewelry fueled the retailer’s double-digit growth.
MajorsNov 13, 2025
Vahan Jewelry Founder Leon ‘Sacha’ Der Calousdian Dies at 85The third-generation jeweler is remembered as a passionate creative with a love of art, traveling and sailboat racing.
CrimeNov 12, 2025
Father, Son Jewelers in Chicago Victims in Double Homicide JSA and Cook County Crime Stoppers are both offering rewards for information leading to the arrest of the suspect or suspects involved.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
‘Mellon Blue’ Diamond Sells for $7M Less Than It Did a Decade AgoA buyer paid $25.6 million for the diamond at Christie’s on Tuesday. In 2014, Sotheby’s sold the same stone for $32.6 million.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
Historic Rolex Oyster Fetches $1.7M at Sotheby’sMercedes Gleitze famously wore the watch in her 1927 swim across the English Channel, a pivotal credibility moment for the watchmaker.
GradingNov 12, 2025
It’s Time: GIA’s Express Holiday Service Is Back GIA is offering next-day services for natural, colorless diamonds submitted to its labs in New York and Carlsbad.
MajorsNov 10, 2025
Jewelers Focus on Love, Joy In 2025 Holiday Campaigns Tiffany & Co., David Yurman, and Pandora have launched holiday campaigns depicting their jewelry as symbols of affection and happiness.
AuctionsNov 10, 2025
300+ Colored Diamonds Up for Auction at Christie’sLate collector Eddy Elzas assembled “The Rainbow Collection,” which is offered as a single lot and estimated to fetch up to $3 million.
EditorsNov 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: An MVP’s Sapphire Tennis Necklace At the 2025 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto sported a custom necklace made by California retailer Happy Jewelers.
IndependentsNov 07, 2025
Foundrae’s New Palm Beach Location Is a ‘Golden Solarium’The brand’s seventh location combines Foundrae’s symbolic vocabulary with motifs from Florida’s natural surroundings.
FinancialsNov 07, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s H1 Sales Up 8%The retailer also shared an update on the impact of tariffs on watch customers.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
Pink Tourmaline Bracelet, Emerald Suite Take Top Spectrum Honors Pink and purple stones were popular in the AGTA’s design competition this year, as were cameos and ocean themes.
