ColumnistsMay 12, 2026
It’s Official: We’re Getting ‘Brain Rot’ From Watching Short-Form Videos Peter Smith gives tips on leading meetings, developing marketing, and making trade show appointments in the age of short attention spans.
SurveysNov 24, 2020
NRF Predicts Happy Holidays for Retailers
Holiday sales could rise more than 5 percent this season, but the rising number of new COVID-19 cases remains a threat.
Holiday sales are expected to increase between 3.6 to 5.2 percent year-over-year to $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion, as per the National Retail Federation.
New York—The National Retail Federation’s forecast for the holiday season is merry and bright.
Holiday sales are expected to increase between 3.6 to 5.2 percent year-over-year to $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion.
Sales were up 4 percent last year to $729.1 billion while average holiday sales have increased 3.5 percent over the past five years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
The forecast usually comes out in October, but the trade organization said it needed more time to work through the uncertainties in the current climate, taking into consideration the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with social unrest.
“Our outlook for the holiday season is very bright,” NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on a call about holiday sales Monday.
Shay opened the call by acknowledging the emphasis retailers have put on health and safety to protect employees, customers, and the communities they serve.
He also noted retailers kicked the holiday season into high gear earlier than usual this year, beginning in October.
Retailers are expected to hire between 475,000 and 575,000 seasonal workers during the holiday season, compared with 562,000 last year.
The NRF noted some of the hiring may have been pulled forward into October since holiday preparation began earlier this year than in the past.
Consumers have responded positively to that earlier start, the NRF said.
From Mother’s Day to Thanksgiving, consumers have been looking for reasons to celebrate throughout the pandemic and are moving into “consumption mode” as the holidays approach, Shay said.
Shoppers and retailers alike have adapted to the situation at hand, he said, as retail sales have been positive over the last six months.
While that growth has not been distributed evenly across all retail categories, Shay noted, there was “tremendous momentum” heading into the second half of the year.
However, the pandemic brings with it uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“I can’t think of a period with so many simultaneous factors hitting the economy at once,” he said on the call.
However, as the economy improves, the ability to spend increases as well.
Kleinhenz highlighted rising home values, a strong stock market, and record savings bolstered by government stimulus payments.
Jobs and wages are growing while energy costs are low. Less money being spent on personal services, travel, and entertainment due to COVID-19 has left money on the table for retail spending.
This year, more of that money will be spent online, with online
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, expected to increase between 20 percent and 30 percent to between $202.5 billion and $218.4 billion, up from $168.7 billion last year.
As for the weather, the National Weather Service is predicting cooler and wetter weather in the north and warmer and drier weather in the south, a combination that has previously signaled stronger retail holiday spending.
But the rising number of new COVID-19 cases is still a threat to consumers and the economy alike.
A tightening of restrictions in areas seeing a surge in new cases could mean another round of closures for non-essential businesses.
Shay said the store closures were a result of “arbitrary decision making” and “wreaked havoc on communities.”
“The entire framework in many cases was just flawed because the restrictions about which businesses could or should be open was based not on health and safety or the way they operated those businesses, but on the products sold by those retailers.”
“The problem is largely not what happens in stores, but outside of the stores.”
With a viable vaccine on the horizon, Shay and Kleinhenz both agreed it could translate into greater spending, even if consumers won’t see the benefits right away.
Shay recalled a tax reform measure signed a few days before Christmas 2017. The measure didn’t take effect until 2018 and no benefits would be seen until taxes were filed in 2019, but just the prospect of tax reform had a positive impact on consumer sentiment.
“There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season,” said Kleinhenz in a press release.
As for the weather, the National Weather Service is predicting cooler and wetter weather in the north and warmer and drier weather in the south, a combination that has previously signaled stronger retail holiday spending.
But the rising number of new COVID-19 cases is still a threat to consumers and the economy alike.
A tightening of restrictions in areas seeing a surge in new cases could mean another round of closures for non-essential businesses.
Shay said the store closures were a result of “arbitrary decision making” and “wreaked havoc on communities.”
“The entire framework in many cases was just flawed because the restrictions about which businesses could or should be open was based not on health and safety or the way they operated those businesses, but on the products sold by those retailers.”
“The problem is largely not what happens in stores, but outside of the stores.”
With a viable vaccine on the horizon, Shay and Kleinhenz both agreed it could translate into greater spending, even if consumers won’t see the benefits right away.
Shay recalled a tax reform measure signed a few days before Christmas 2017. The measure didn’t take effect until 2018 and no benefits would be seen until taxes were filed in 2019, but just the prospect of tax reform had a positive impact on consumer sentiment.
“There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season,” said Kleinhenz in a press release.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsMay 12, 2026
Jessica McCormack Debuts Antique Coin-Inspired Medallions for SummerThe 11-piece “Medallions” capsule collection features five motifs: a crying eye, a heart on fire, a spiral, a flower, and a swallow.
IndependentsMay 12, 2026
State of Retail: 6 Things Retailers Should Know About Consumers TodayFrom Gen Z’s view of luxury to “doom spending,” these are the six consumer trends to note this year.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2026
The Tiffany & Co. x CFDA Jewelry Designer Award Is BackThe partners have announced the second cycle of the program, which has expanded to include a $25,000 student scholarship.
Weekly QuizMay 07, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsMay 11, 2026
Kansas Jeweler Closing After 70 YearsThe owners of Staats Jewelers are heading into retirement.
TrendsMay 11, 2026
Former Macy’s CEO Joins Signet Jewelers BoardJeffrey Gennette, who retired in 2024 after 41 years with Macy’s, is the newest member of the jewelry retailer’s board of directors.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
TrendsMay 11, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Lucky May May babies are lucky to have emeralds, a gemstone admired for centuries, as their birthstone, writes Amanda Gizzi.
TechnologyMay 11, 2026
Clientbook’s New Tool Helps Jewelers Plan In-Store EventsThe new module allows retailers to plan, promote, and measure the success of events from a single dashboard.
Lab-GrownMay 08, 2026
NDC Publicly Criticizes Pandora Over ‘Misleading’ Natural Diamond ClaimsNDC said in an open letter that Pandora’s statements about the carbon footprint of lab grown versus natural diamonds are inaccurate.
SourcingMay 08, 2026
Ronnie VanderLinden Takes Over as WDC President The diamantaire and industry leader succeeds Feriel Zerouki and said he will focus on being a “champion” for natural diamonds.
TrendsMay 08, 2026
Rihanna Chooses ‘Desert Diamonds’ for 2026 Met GalaShe wore our Piece of the Week, Glenn Spiro’s “Old Moghul Golconda” earrings, featuring fancy brown-yellow diamonds totaling 51.90 carats.
Events & AwardsMay 08, 2026
JA Announces 2026 CASE Award WinnersTwo pieces were named “Best in Show,” one from the retail category and one from the supplier category.
FinancialsMay 07, 2026
Brilliant Earth Appeals to Higher-Income Shoppers in Q1The jewelry retailer noted resilience among its higher-end customers while demand softened for its lower-priced offerings.
AuctionsMay 07, 2026
‘Spectacular’ Kashmir Sapphire Headlines Heritage Spring Jewelry SaleLed by the 6.59-carat sapphire, the sale garnered $9.7 million, a record total for a Heritage jewelry auction.
MajorsMay 07, 2026
Gannon & Scott Names New Regional Account ExecutiveIn his new role, sales specialist Billy Welshoff will focus on the eastern United States.
WatchesMay 07, 2026
Chrono24 Names New CEOJosé Gaztelu has been promoted to the role, which has been vacant since last year.
Events & AwardsMay 07, 2026
JA Accepting Applications for 2026 Scholarship ProgramIt has also opened the application period for the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship through June 30.
SourcingMay 06, 2026
Canada’s Oldest Diamond Mine Faces Uncertain FutureThe owner of the Ekati mine, which opened in 1998, has filed for insolvency protection amid the significant decline in diamond prices.
FinancialsMay 06, 2026
Pandora to Add Carbon Footprint Info to Lab-Grown DiamondsThe company announced the change alongside its Q1 results, which showed that the jewelry brand’s year is off to a shaky start.
MajorsMay 06, 2026
Saks Global Begins Layoffs, Reorganization Plans Closer to ApprovalThe retailer will cut 16 percent of its corporate workforce as part of its plan to exit bankruptcy.
AuctionsMay 06, 2026
Steve McQueen’s Heuer Monaco Watch Heads to Sotheby'sOf the many examples used in the filming of “Le Mans,” this one is believed to have spent the most time on Steve McQueen’s wrist.
EditorsMay 05, 2026
This Ohio Designer’s Jewelry Made It to the Met GalaMegan Piccione dressed Lauren Wasser in layers of diamond jewelry, making her stand out in a crowd that included celebrities like Beyoncé.
SourcingMay 05, 2026
Doug Hucker Returns to His RootsFollowing decades of association leadership, the “semi-retired” colored gemstone expert is turning his focus to gemstone education.
Events & AwardsMay 05, 2026
AMNH to Showcase Famous Jewelry, Trophies in Sports HistoryThe museum’s new exhibition will feature one of Jesse Owen’s Olympic medals, Yogi Berra’s crown, Super Bowl rings, and more.
Events & AwardsMay 05, 2026
JIS Launches Brand Exposure ProgramThe new program provides access to media exposure and editorial opportunities for exhibitors and retailers.
