SurveysSep 26, 2023
Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday PredictionSurveysSep 27, 2023
Consumer Confidence Falls in September Amid Rising Recession Fears
Shoppers also expressed concern about rising prices, higher interest rates, and political uncertainty.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 103 in September from 108.7 in August.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell again in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline as recession fears heighten.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 103 in September from a slightly upwardly revised 108.7 in August.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.”
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose slightly to 147 from just under 147 in August.
“Assessments of the present situation were little changed overall, due to divergent views on the state of business conditions and job availability,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was a mixed bag in September, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 21 percent from 22 percent in August, while those who said conditions are “bad” was down to 16 percent from 17 percent.
Consumers had a slightly more positive view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 41 percent in September from 40 percent in August, while 14 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell sharply to 74 from 83 in August.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it announced in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” it said.
Economist Peterson said the results reflected “less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.”
The number of respondents saying a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” rose in September after falling in August.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” she said.
The month-to-month fluctuation of consumers’ recession predictions reflects uncertainty, she said, noting they have mixed buying plans for high-price items.
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to buy cars were flat while plans to buy appliances continued to trend upward.
However, plans to buy homes continued to trend downward, due in part to rising interest rates.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, with 14 percent expecting business conditions to improve, down from 18 percent in August.
More respondents expect business conditions to worsen—18 percent compared with 17 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was bleaker.
Fewer respondents expect more jobs to be available, down to 16 from 18 percent.
Meanwhile, 19 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, up from 18 percent in August.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were also down, as was their assessment of short-term income prospects.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in August. Fourteen percent expect their incomes to decrease, up from 12 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In September, views of their families’ current financial situation and the situation six months from now worsened.
Expectations for lower interest rates declined in September after rising in August, while outlook for higher stock prices continued to fall, said Peterson.
“Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations have held steady over the past three months despite ongoing complaints about higher prices,” she said.
The consumer confidence results for October will be released on Oct. 31.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CrimeDec 24, 2025
LA Jewelry District Couple Pleads Guilty to Hiding Millions from IRSThe couple pleaded guilty to concealing at least $127 million in cash transactions at its precious metals businesses.
AuctionsDec 24, 2025
Bonhams to Open New U.S. Flagship in NYCIn February 2026, the auction house will move its headquarters to the former Steinway Hall, a neoclassical landmark on Billionaires’ Row.
Events & AwardsDec 24, 2025
NYC Jewelry, Antique, & Object Show Announces Winter EventThe new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
SourcingDec 23, 2025
Mining Titan Brian Gilbertson Dies at 82The former BHP Billiton leader and Gemfields chairman is remembered for his influential leadership throughout his 50-year mining career.
Weekly QuizDec 23, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsDec 23, 2025
Bulgari Reimagines Costume Designers Guild AwardThe LVMH-owned brand has partnered with the costume design union to revamp its award for 2026.
MajorsDec 23, 2025
Kering to Acquire Stake in Raselli Franco GroupThe luxury titan inked a deal to acquire an initial minority stake in the jewelry manufacturer with a pathway to full ownership by 2032.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
MajorsDec 23, 2025
For Future Reference Vintage Enters Bloomingdale’sThe company’s curation of unsigned vintage and estate jewelry debuted at the Bloomingdale’s in Costa Mesa, California.
CrimeDec 22, 2025
Customs Seizes Hundreds of Fake Rolex, Cartier WatchesIn the recent multi-shipment seizure, CBP also found counterfeit Audemars Piguet, Moncler, and Chrome Hearts items.
EditorsDec 22, 2025
How Helzberg Is Reimagining Its StoresHelzberg’s Chief Retail Officer Mitch Maggart shared details about its tests of a new store concept rooted in an elevated luxury experience.
Recorded WebinarsDec 22, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: Looking Back on an Eventful Year Jewelers of America execs and National Jeweler editors discuss tariffs, the sky-high gold price, and the engagement that broke the internet.
MajorsDec 19, 2025
MadaLuxe Group Acquires Ippolita The luxury goods company said founder Ippolita Rostagno will remain at the brand’s helm.
MajorsDec 19, 2025
LVMH Names New Bulgari CEOLaura Burdese, who joined the Italian luxury brand in 2022, will take on the role in July.
EditorsDec 19, 2025
2025 Jewelry Superlatives: A Yearbook-Style Year in Review The National Jeweler editors revisit the most noteworthy industry happenings and design trends from 2025.
AuctionsDec 19, 2025
Jean Schlumberger’s ‘African Cat’ Is Purr-Fection Need a gift for the cat lover who has everything? Look no further than our latest Piece of the Week.
AuctionsDec 18, 2025
Audemars Piguet Reclaims Historic Pocket Watch at AuctionIt purchased the “Grosse Pièce,” an ultra-complicated Audemars Piguet pocket watch from the ‘20s, for a record-breaking price at Sotheby’s.
Lab-GrownDec 18, 2025
Kira Jewels Debuts Custom Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry ServiceThe lab-grown diamond grower now offers custom engagement and fashion jewelry through its Kira Custom Lab Jewelry service.
EditorsDec 18, 2025
Terry Chandler Looks Back on 40 Years of Opportunity, Change, and FriendsChandler got his start at Michelson Jewelers and has served as DCA president and CEO since 2001. He will retire at the end of the month.
WatchesDec 18, 2025
Bob’s Watches to Open Store in New York’s JFK AirportThe boutique is slated to open this week inside Terminal 8, offering pre-owned Rolex watches and more to international travelers.
Supplier BulletinDec 18, 2025
Cell Jammers Are Targeting Your Business. Here's How to Beat ThemSponsored by Digital Monitoring Products
CrimeDec 17, 2025
Man Pleads Not Guilty to Swallowing Fabergé PendantThe special-edition egg pendant ingested in a New Zealand jewelry store was recovered after a six-day wait.
EditorsDec 17, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: The Best Piece of the Week PicksAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco plays favorites with Piece of the Week, selecting a standout piece of jewelry from each month of 2025.
CollectionsDec 17, 2025
Lucy Hale Stars in Jacquie Aiche’s Holiday CampaignThe “Love and Desire” campaign is inspired by the magic that follows when one’s heart leads the way, said the brand.
GradingDec 17, 2025
SSEF Announces 2025 Scholarship WinnersTwo awardees will receive free tuition for an educational course at the Swiss lab, with flights and lodging included.
MajorsDec 16, 2025
Pandora’s New CEO Will Step Up EarlyBerta de Pablos-Barbier will replace Alexander Lacik at the start of January, two months earlier than expected.
AuctionsDec 16, 2025
Suzanne Belperron, JAR Shine in Sotheby’s First Auctions at New HQSotheby’s held its first two jewelry sales at the Breuer building last week, and they totaled nearly $44 million.
