SurveysSep 26, 2023
Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday PredictionSurveysSep 27, 2023
Consumer Confidence Falls in September Amid Rising Recession Fears
Shoppers also expressed concern about rising prices, higher interest rates, and political uncertainty.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 103 in September from 108.7 in August.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell again in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline as recession fears heighten.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 103 in September from a slightly upwardly revised 108.7 in August.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.”
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose slightly to 147 from just under 147 in August.
“Assessments of the present situation were little changed overall, due to divergent views on the state of business conditions and job availability,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was a mixed bag in September, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 21 percent from 22 percent in August, while those who said conditions are “bad” was down to 16 percent from 17 percent.
Consumers had a slightly more positive view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 41 percent in September from 40 percent in August, while 14 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell sharply to 74 from 83 in August.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it announced in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” it said.
Economist Peterson said the results reflected “less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.”
The number of respondents saying a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” rose in September after falling in August.
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” she said.
The month-to-month fluctuation of consumers’ recession predictions reflects uncertainty, she said, noting they have mixed buying plans for high-price items.
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to buy cars were flat while plans to buy appliances continued to trend upward.
However, plans to buy homes continued to trend downward, due in part to rising interest rates.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, with 14 percent expecting business conditions to improve, down from 18 percent in August.
More respondents expect business conditions to worsen—18 percent compared with 17 percent.
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was bleaker.
Fewer respondents expect more jobs to be available, down to 16 from 18 percent.
Meanwhile, 19 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, up from 18 percent in August.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were also down, as was their assessment of short-term income prospects.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in August. Fourteen percent expect their incomes to decrease, up from 12 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In September, views of their families’ current financial situation and the situation six months from now worsened.
Expectations for lower interest rates declined in September after rising in August, while outlook for higher stock prices continued to fall, said Peterson.
“Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations have held steady over the past three months despite ongoing complaints about higher prices,” she said.
The consumer confidence results for October will be released on Oct. 31.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
The Latest
SourcingMar 12, 2025
5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.
SourcingMar 12, 2025
Q&A: New GJEPC Chairman Kirit BhansaliBhansali discusses the potential impact of U.S. tariffs, demand for diamonds by market, and the “cautious confidence” in India right now.
Lab-GrownMar 12, 2025
Beyond Jewelry: Possibilities in the Lab-Grown Diamond SectorAs lab-grown diamond brands pop up across India, academics are researching how to grow demand outside of the jewelry industry.
Brought to you by
Watch: GIA Field Gemology at the One-Hundredth Expedition: A Look Back and to the FutureSupplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
SourcingMar 12, 2025
Indian Leader, Retailer Among 2025 DDG Honorees Govind Dholakia and Tanishq will be recognized for their contributions to the industry at the Diamonds Do Good Awards in Las Vegas.
Weekly QuizMar 06, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsMar 12, 2025
Marla Aaron Migrates to LondonThe New York City-based brand has opened its first U.K. location with a permanent shop-in-shop at Liberty in London.
AuctionsMar 12, 2025
A Medieval Bishop’s Sapphire Ring Is Going Up for SaleA metal detectorist discovered the ring that is believed to have belonged to a bishop in the late 12th to early 13th century.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
Events & AwardsMar 12, 2025
JA New York Announces Education, Live Demo LineupsOrganizers looked to new partnerships and interactive experiences to enhance the spring show, set for March 16 to 18.
Events & AwardsMar 12, 2025
Bogolo Joy Kenewendo to Speak at Annual JVC LuncheonKenewendo, Botswana’s minister of minerals and energy, will discuss the future of diamonds.
CrimeMar 11, 2025
Man in Florida Swallows Allegedly Stolen Tiffany & Co. Jewelry The suspect allegedly stole almost $800,000 worth of diamond jewelry from a store in Orlando and then swallowed it during a traffic stop.
ColumnistsMar 11, 2025
Creative Connecting: How to Pose on the Red CarpetAhead of the Gem Awards on Friday, Jen Cullen Williams and Duvall O’Steen share pro tips for taking the best photos.
CollectionsMar 11, 2025
Marco Bicego Celebrates 25 Years With Collection, CampaignFounded in 2000, Marco Bicego is commemorating its milestone anniversary with a “25 Best” collection and campaigns honoring its heritage.
TechnologyMar 11, 2025
Hill & Co. Launches New B2B Buyer DatabaseThose attending the company’s upcoming Zoom workshop will receive early access to “The List,” its new resource for finding buyers.
Events & AwardsMar 11, 2025
JSA to Honor GIA Employee at Annual LuncheonThe organization will present an award to Amy-Elise Signeavsky, law enforcement and diamond recovery manager at GIA.
MajorsMar 10, 2025
Terry Chandler to Retire After 24 Years as Head of DCA Chandler started his jewelry career at Michelson Jewelers, joining the Diamond Council of America as president and CEO in 2001.
CollectionsMar 10, 2025
MaeVona Co-Founder Debuts 3D-Printed ‘Tùsaire’ CollectionScottish American designer Maeve Gillies collaborated with Platinum Guild International on jewelry created by direct metal 3D printing.
Events & AwardsMar 10, 2025
The Jewelry Symposium Announces 2025 Scholarship WinnersAhead of its trade show in May, TJS awarded free registration and accommodations to five up-and-coming jewelry industry professionals.
Events & AwardsMar 10, 2025
These Designers, Journalists, and Retailers Are Up for a Gem Award The 2025 Gem Awards are set to take place Friday at Cipriani 42nd Street in New York City.
MajorsMar 07, 2025
Jane Fonda, Mariska Hargitay Star in Pomellato’s IWD CampaignThe annual star-studded campaign for International Women’s Day encourages collective action against domestic violence.
CollectionsMar 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: Yeprem’s ‘Golden Strada’ NecklaceThe statement piece is seen in Yeprem’s new “You Play the Game” campaign, created for International Women’s Day.
MajorsMar 07, 2025
Borsheims Names New Senior Security and Facilities ManagerLongtime employee Kyle Slosson has been promoted to the role.
IndependentsMar 06, 2025
Wixon Jewelers to Close After 37 YearsFirst-generation jewelers Dan and Hope Wixon are retiring and will close their Minneapolis-area jewelry store in May.
CollectionsMar 06, 2025
Guzema, 3.1 Phillip Lim Collab on New ‘Snake’ DesignsThe limited-edition collection, a nod to the Year of the Snake, is Ukrainian brand Guzema’s first partnership with a U.S. brand.
IndependentsMar 06, 2025
Stephen Barnes Is the New Owner of IJOAfter more than 50 years, Jeff Roberts is handing over ownership of the organization to IJO President Stephen Barnes.
Events & AwardsMar 06, 2025
Borsheims’ ‘Ike-It’ Award Goes to JewelerSenior Jeweler Jay Wolff was named employee of the year.
MajorsMar 05, 2025
Neiman Marcus’ Dallas Flagship Store to Close, Confirms Saks GlobalThe 111-year-old store will close following a dispute among Saks Global, a landlord, and the City of Dallas over a small piece of land.
