Surveys

Consumer Confidence Falls in September Amid Rising Recession Fears

SurveysSep 27, 2023

Consumer Confidence Falls in September Amid Rising Recession Fears

Shoppers also expressed concern about rising prices, higher interest rates, and political uncertainty.

Hands pushing a shopping cart
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 103 in September from 108.7 in August.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell again in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline as recession fears heighten.  
 
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 103 in September from a slightly upwardly revised 108.7 in August.  
 
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. 
 
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.” 
  
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose slightly to 147 from just under 147 in August. 
 
“Assessments of the present situation were little changed overall, due to divergent views on the state of business conditions and job availability,” said Peterson. 
 
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was a mixed bag in September, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 21 percent from 22 percent in August, while those who said conditions are “bad” was down to 16 percent from 17 percent. 
 
Consumers had a slightly more positive view of the current labor market.  
 
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was up to 41 percent in September from 40 percent in August, while 14 percent said jobs were “hard to get” compared with 13 percent. 
 
 Related stories will be right here … 
  
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell sharply to 74 from 83 in August.  
 
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it announced in July
 
“Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” it said. 
 
Economist Peterson said the results reflected “less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.” 
 
The number of respondents saying a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” rose in September after falling in August. 
 
“Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise, making big-ticket items more expensive,” she said. 
 
The month-to-month fluctuation of consumers’ recession predictions reflects uncertainty, she said, noting they have mixed buying plans for high-price items. 
 
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to buy cars were flat while plans to buy appliances continued to trend upward. 
 
However, plans to buy homes continued to trend downward, due in part to rising interest rates. 
 
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, with 14 percent expecting business conditions to improve, down from 18 percent in August.  
  
More respondents expect business conditions to worsen—18 percent compared with 17 percent.  
  
Consumers’ view of the short-term labor market also was bleaker.  
  
Fewer respondents expect more jobs to be available, down to 16 from 18 percent.  
  
Meanwhile, 19 percent expect there to be fewer jobs, up from 18 percent in August.  
 
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were also down, as was their assessment of short-term income prospects. 
 
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase, down to 16 percent from 19 percent in August. Fourteen percent expect their incomes to decrease, up from 12 percent.  
 
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.  
 
In September, views of their families’ current financial situation and the situation six months from now worsened. 
 
Expectations for lower interest rates declined in September after rising in August, while outlook for higher stock prices continued to fall, said Peterson. 
 
“Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations have held steady over the past three months despite ongoing complaints about higher prices,” she said. 
 
The consumer confidence results for October will be released on Oct. 31. 
 

The Latest

Movado Connect 2.0 watches
FinancialsMay 30, 2025
Movado’s Q1 Sales Slip Amid ‘Challenging’ Retail Environment

The company plans to raise the prices of select watches to offset the impact of tariffs.

Zoë Chicco Bracelets
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Tariffs & Designers: Navigating Pricing in an Unstable Environment

Between tariffs and the sky-high cost of gold, designers enter this year’s Las Vegas shows with a lot of questions and few answers.

Renato Cipullo Hematite Blaze Necklace
CollectionsMay 30, 2025
Piece of the Week: Renato Cipullo’s ‘Hematite Blaze’ Necklace

Designed by founder Renato and his daughter Serena Cipullo, it showcases a flame motif representing unity and the power of gathering.

Article Image 1.png
Brought to you by
Clienteling Isn’t a Buzzword. It’s an Essential Business Model.

More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.

Stock image of shipping containers
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Trade Court Declares Trump’s Tariffs Invalid

However, the tariffs remain in effect in the short term, as an appeals court has stayed the U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision.

Weekly QuizMay 30, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Britney Spears
CollectionsMay 29, 2025
Britney Spears Files Trademark for New Jewelry Line

The pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.

Inoveo Platinum Grain image.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 29, 2025
Inoveo Platinum Grain, Exclusively Distributed by Stuller

Sponsored by Stuller

antique_Vegas_2024_by_headshot_stories_9454.jpg
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the Globe

Gain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.

Grizzly Mining Pilala emerald
SourcingMay 29, 2025
Grizzly Auctions 6,620-Carat Emerald

It was featured in the miner’s latest sale, which brought in $24.8 million.

GemFind Logo
TechnologyMay 29, 2025
GemFind Launches AI Product Description Software

GemText AI uses artificial intelligence to generate tailored product titles, descriptions, and tags with jewelry-specific language.

Graff Fontainebleau Las Vegas
MajorsMay 28, 2025
Graff Unveils New Las Vegas Flagship

The 3,300-square foot location is the jeweler's largest store in North America.

Kim Kardashian
CrimeMay 28, 2025
8 Convicted in Kim Kardashian Jewelry Heist Trial

Aging and with myriad health issues, none will serve time for their roles in robbing the billionaire celebrity at gunpoint in 2016.

New York Liberty 2024 WNBA Championship Ring
CollectionsMay 28, 2025
NY Liberty’s 2024 Championship Rings Honor Historic Win

The WNBA team received rings imbued with meaning, from leaf motifs and its Liberty torch to the number of diamonds used.

Jewelers Board of Trade logo
MajorsMay 28, 2025
Andrew Rickard Named JBT President

A longtime executive at RDI Diamonds, Rickard has served on the JBT board for the past five years.

Logos for Manufacturing Jewelers & Suppliers of America and Jewelers of America
MajorsMay 27, 2025
MJSA to Become Part of Jewelers of America

The two organizations have signed an affiliation agreement that’s expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.

Al Capone Pocket Watch
AuctionsMay 27, 2025
Al Capone’s Patek Philippe Pocket Watch Back Up for Auction

The platinum and diamond watch is part of Sotheby’s upcoming Important Watches sale.

Kat Florence Lumina
AuctionsMay 27, 2025
182-Carat Paraíba-Type Tourmaline Sells for $487K

Recovered in Mozambique, “The Kat Florence Lumina” was part of Bonhams’ Hong Kong jewelry auction held last week.

Mark Henry Gumdrop Bypass Ring
TrendsMay 27, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Candy-Colored Gemstones

Get a taste of the delicious candy-like gemstones in this Amanda’s Style File.

Stock image of police cars with their lights on
CrimeMay 23, 2025
JSA Shares Holiday Weekend Security Tips Amid Spike in Burglaries

JSA’s Scott Guginsky provided a list of nine security measures jewelers should observe while locking up for the long weekend.

Bliss Lau Bright Ring
CollectionsMay 23, 2025
Piece of the Week: Bliss Lau’s ‘Bright’ Ring

From Lau’s “Love of a Kind” series, the engagement ring was inspired by the moon and holds a different meaning depending on how it is worn.

GIA pearl report
GradingMay 23, 2025
GIA Updates Pearl Classification System

The lab has adjusted the scale it uses for nacre grading.

GCALbySarine Diamond Journey Certificate_1872x1052.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 22, 2025
How to Put Natural Diamonds Back in the Spotlight

Sponsored by GCAL by Sarine

The late West Virginia jeweler David Ettinger
CrimeMay 22, 2025
NY Jeweler Sentenced in Shoving Death of Colleague at IJO Show

David Walton will serve three years’ probation after an incident in a hotel bar led to the death of West Virginia jeweler David Ettinger.

Watches of Switzerland store in Mall of America
FinancialsMay 22, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s Full-Year U.S. Sales Climb 14%

The retailer also provided an update on how the tariffs situation in the U.S. is affecting its business.

Jorge Adeler, Wendy Adeler, Valentina Adeler
IndependentsMay 22, 2025
Adeler Jewelers Celebrates 50 Years

The family-owned jeweler in Great Falls, Virginia, will be celebrating its golden jubilee with a year’s worth of events.

Jose Hess Design Awards 2025 Trophy
Events & AwardsMay 22, 2025
Jose Hess Design Awards Announce Judges

The nonprofit elected five judges who will decide the winners of its design competition.

MJSA 2025-2026 Buyer’s Guide
MajorsMay 22, 2025
MJSA Releases 2025-2026 Buyer’s Guide

This year’s edition includes articles on the favorite tools of notable designers, evaluating when to outsource production, and more.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy