SurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday SeasonSurveysSep 26, 2023
Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday Prediction
According to SpendingPulse, retail sales will increase in November and December but not necessarily for jewelers.
Mastercard predicts retail sales will grow 3.7 percent in November and December, though jewelry sales are forecast to remain essentially flat amid a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
Purchase, N.Y.—‘Tis the season for the holiday forecasts to keep rolling in.
Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.
SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.
Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.
This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.
The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.
The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically.
“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc.
“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
Related stories will be right here …
Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.
SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.
Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.
This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.
The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.
The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically.
“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc.
“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
The two categories Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts will post the largest increases in spending this holiday season are electronics (up 6 percent year-over-year) and restaurants (up 5 percent year-over-year).
Mastercard said electronics, gadgets and gaming are expected to be popular among consumers this year, as artificial intelligence, immersive experiences, and digital workspaces continue to the change the way people work and play.
In addition, consumers who purchased new electronics at the onset of the pandemic may be looking to upgrade this year.
As for restaurant spending, the company said consumers are keen on gathering with loved ones for shared meals and festivities outside of the home after a few years of being isolated.
When it comes to where consumers will be shopping this holiday season, Mastercard said this season’s shopper is looking to “make purchases anytime, anywhere.”
It predicts in-store sales will increase 3 percent year-over-year while e-commerce sales are expected to grow 7 percent.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsOct 09, 2026
Elisa Solomon Collabs With Serendipity 3 on ‘Frozen Hot Chocolate’ CharmThe charm, our Piece of the Week, features brown diamond frozen hot chocolate topped with white diamond whipped cream and a ruby straw.
AuctionsOct 09, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Goes Unsold at UK Jewelry Auction The top lot of Elmwood’s recent fine jewelry sale in London was a 1.84-carat, D color Tiffany & Co. solitaire diamond ring.
WatchesOct 09, 2026
Movado to Sell Majority Stake in Ebel for $66.5MThe watch company agreed to sell a 95 percent interest to a group comprised of F.P. Journe, Chanel, and Swiss watch exec Pierre Jacques.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
Policies & IssuesOct 08, 2026
Third Wave of IEEPA Tariff Refunds Begins This round of tariff refunds is for importers that have sued over IEEPA tariffs in the Court of International Trade and won.
Weekly QuizOct 08, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsOct 08, 2026
Brent Neale’s New Collection Goes ‘Back to Basics’It revisits the brand’s most requested silhouettes, from "Pillow"-set necklaces and bracelets to "Signature"-set rings and earrings.
SourcingOct 08, 2026
Ethical Gem Fair Heads Back to BrooklynThe trade-only event includes buying opportunities as well as educational sessions on artisanal mining, the new Paraíba source, and more.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
Events & AwardsOct 08, 2026
Pattons Fine Jewelry Sweeps Local Design ContestAra Chanakian, a jeweler at Pattons, took home top honors in every category at Jewelers of Louisiana’s annual jewelry design competition.
AuctionsOct 08, 2026
Reba McEntire’s Jewelry, Watches Head to Julien’s AuctionsThe live charity benefit sale in Nashville will also feature gowns, boots, and other memorabilia from the country music legend.
Supplier BulletinOct 08, 2026
Overnight Mountings’ Bridal Builder Helps Jewelers Turn Custom Design into a Hands-On Selling ExperienceSponsored by Overnight Mountings
Policies & IssuesOct 07, 2026
The Plumb Club Amplifies Its Voice as Geopolitical Pressures MountThe supplier organization recently joined JA and JVC to have more input on political issues affecting the jewelry industry.
CollectionsOct 07, 2026
Blue Nile, Royal Asscher Collection Highlights Natural Diamond BeautyBlue Nile, a Signet Jewelers-owned brand, is now Royal Asscher’s exclusive licensed retailer in North America.
CollectionsOct 07, 2026
4 Standout Pieces in Audemars Piguet’s First High Jewelry Collection “Royal Oak” pays homage to the brand’s most popular watch model using 18-karat gold as well as diamonds, emeralds, and sapphires.
MajorsOct 07, 2026
Empire Safe & Vault Promotes Juan Morales to CEOAs part of the transition, Joseph Nicosia has stepped into the role of COO.
SourcingOct 07, 2026
AGTA Extends Deadline for 2026 Spectrum Awards EntriesParticipants now have until Oct. 14 to complete their submissions.
CrimeOct 06, 2026
6 Charged in Connection to String of New Jersey Smash-and-GrabsThe alleged thieves used crow bars and sledgehammers to smash into jewelry stores across the state.
ColumnistsOct 06, 2026
Sherry Smith: Is the Consumer Really Trading Up?Ahead of the holidays, Smith urges jewelers to take a hard look at who’s buying jewelry, what they’re purchasing, and who’s stopped buying.
SourcingOct 06, 2026
DDG Taps Influencers for ‘My Diamond Does Good’ CampaignIn the new consumer-facing campaign, four fashion and lifestyle creators share the stories behind their natural diamond pieces.
MajorsOct 06, 2026
Frederick Goldman Names COO, CMOFGI President John Orrico is also leaving the company after more than 13 years.
Events & AwardsOct 06, 2026
JIS Fall Returns to MiamiThe 2026 edition will feature presentations on alternative materials and design trends, as well as pop-up activations on the show floor.
SourcingOct 05, 2026
De Beers to Take Full Ownership of Gahcho KuéIt is the last fully operational diamond mine in Canada following the recent closures of Ekati and Diavik.
AuctionsOct 05, 2026
The Star Cats of the Sandy Lerner AuctionThese jewels stood out at Bonhams’ sale of the cat-loving tech entrepreneur’s collection of objects depicting the feline form.
CollectionsOct 05, 2026
Sorellina Writes Another Love Letter for ‘Postscript’ CollectionThe fine jewelry brand has expanded the collection that debuted at Couture with four new designs based on its most popular styles.
SourcingOct 05, 2026
Bruce Bridges Joins CIBJO BoardThe AGTA president was elected for a two-year term on the board of directors.
SourcingOct 02, 2026
De Beers, National Geographic Society Renew Okavango Eternal Partnership The partnership, a pledge to protect Africa’s Okavango River Basin, has been extended for an additional five years.
MajorsOct 02, 2026
Pandora Opens New $150M Manufacturing Facility in VietnamThe new facility, its first outside of Thailand, will boost its manufacturing capacity by 50 percent.
