SurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday SeasonSurveysSep 26, 2023
Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday Prediction
According to SpendingPulse, retail sales will increase in November and December but not necessarily for jewelers.
Mastercard predicts retail sales will grow 3.7 percent in November and December, though jewelry sales are forecast to remain essentially flat amid a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
Purchase, N.Y.—‘Tis the season for the holiday forecasts to keep rolling in.
Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.
SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.
Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.
This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.
The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.
The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically.
“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc.
“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
Related stories will be right here …
Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.
SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.
Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.
This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.
The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.
The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically.
“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc.
“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
The two categories Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts will post the largest increases in spending this holiday season are electronics (up 6 percent year-over-year) and restaurants (up 5 percent year-over-year).
Mastercard said electronics, gadgets and gaming are expected to be popular among consumers this year, as artificial intelligence, immersive experiences, and digital workspaces continue to the change the way people work and play.
In addition, consumers who purchased new electronics at the onset of the pandemic may be looking to upgrade this year.
As for restaurant spending, the company said consumers are keen on gathering with loved ones for shared meals and festivities outside of the home after a few years of being isolated.
When it comes to where consumers will be shopping this holiday season, Mastercard said this season’s shopper is looking to “make purchases anytime, anywhere.”
It predicts in-store sales will increase 3 percent year-over-year while e-commerce sales are expected to grow 7 percent.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CrimeDec 24, 2025
LA Jewelry District Couple Pleads Guilty to Hiding Millions from IRSThe couple pleaded guilty to concealing at least $127 million in cash transactions at its precious metals businesses.
AuctionsDec 24, 2025
Bonhams to Open New U.S. Flagship in NYCIn February 2026, the auction house will move its headquarters to the former Steinway Hall, a neoclassical landmark on Billionaires’ Row.
Events & AwardsDec 24, 2025
NYC Jewelry, Antique, & Object Show Announces Winter EventThe new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
SourcingDec 23, 2025
Mining Titan Brian Gilbertson Dies at 82The former BHP Billiton leader and Gemfields chairman is remembered for his influential leadership throughout his 50-year mining career.
Weekly QuizDec 23, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsDec 23, 2025
Bulgari Reimagines Costume Designers Guild AwardThe LVMH-owned brand has partnered with the costume design union to revamp its award for 2026.
MajorsDec 23, 2025
Kering to Acquire Stake in Raselli Franco GroupThe luxury titan inked a deal to acquire an initial minority stake in the jewelry manufacturer with a pathway to full ownership by 2032.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
MajorsDec 23, 2025
For Future Reference Vintage Enters Bloomingdale’sThe company’s curation of unsigned vintage and estate jewelry debuted at the Bloomingdale’s in Costa Mesa, California.
CrimeDec 22, 2025
Customs Seizes Hundreds of Fake Rolex, Cartier WatchesIn the recent multi-shipment seizure, CBP also found counterfeit Audemars Piguet, Moncler, and Chrome Hearts items.
EditorsDec 22, 2025
How Helzberg Is Reimagining Its StoresHelzberg’s Chief Retail Officer Mitch Maggart shared details about its tests of a new store concept rooted in an elevated luxury experience.
Recorded WebinarsDec 22, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: Looking Back on an Eventful Year Jewelers of America execs and National Jeweler editors discuss tariffs, the sky-high gold price, and the engagement that broke the internet.
MajorsDec 19, 2025
MadaLuxe Group Acquires Ippolita The luxury goods company said founder Ippolita Rostagno will remain at the brand’s helm.
MajorsDec 19, 2025
LVMH Names New Bulgari CEOLaura Burdese, who joined the Italian luxury brand in 2022, will take on the role in July.
EditorsDec 19, 2025
2025 Jewelry Superlatives: A Yearbook-Style Year in Review The National Jeweler editors revisit the most noteworthy industry happenings and design trends from 2025.
AuctionsDec 19, 2025
Jean Schlumberger’s ‘African Cat’ Is Purr-Fection Need a gift for the cat lover who has everything? Look no further than our latest Piece of the Week.
AuctionsDec 18, 2025
Audemars Piguet Reclaims Historic Pocket Watch at AuctionIt purchased the “Grosse Pièce,” an ultra-complicated Audemars Piguet pocket watch from the ‘20s, for a record-breaking price at Sotheby’s.
Lab-GrownDec 18, 2025
Kira Jewels Debuts Custom Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry ServiceThe lab-grown diamond grower now offers custom engagement and fashion jewelry through its Kira Custom Lab Jewelry service.
EditorsDec 18, 2025
Terry Chandler Looks Back on 40 Years of Opportunity, Change, and FriendsChandler got his start at Michelson Jewelers and has served as DCA president and CEO since 2001. He will retire at the end of the month.
WatchesDec 18, 2025
Bob’s Watches to Open Store in New York’s JFK AirportThe boutique is slated to open this week inside Terminal 8, offering pre-owned Rolex watches and more to international travelers.
Supplier BulletinDec 18, 2025
Cell Jammers Are Targeting Your Business. Here's How to Beat ThemSponsored by Digital Monitoring Products
CrimeDec 17, 2025
Man Pleads Not Guilty to Swallowing Fabergé PendantThe special-edition egg pendant ingested in a New Zealand jewelry store was recovered after a six-day wait.
EditorsDec 17, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: The Best Piece of the Week PicksAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco plays favorites with Piece of the Week, selecting a standout piece of jewelry from each month of 2025.
CollectionsDec 17, 2025
Lucy Hale Stars in Jacquie Aiche’s Holiday CampaignThe “Love and Desire” campaign is inspired by the magic that follows when one’s heart leads the way, said the brand.
GradingDec 17, 2025
SSEF Announces 2025 Scholarship WinnersTwo awardees will receive free tuition for an educational course at the Swiss lab, with flights and lodging included.
MajorsDec 16, 2025
Pandora’s New CEO Will Step Up EarlyBerta de Pablos-Barbier will replace Alexander Lacik at the start of January, two months earlier than expected.
AuctionsDec 16, 2025
Suzanne Belperron, JAR Shine in Sotheby’s First Auctions at New HQSotheby’s held its first two jewelry sales at the Breuer building last week, and they totaled nearly $44 million.
