SurveysSep 20, 2023
Why Bain and Deloitte Think Sales Will Grow This Holiday SeasonSurveysSep 26, 2023
Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday Prediction
According to SpendingPulse, retail sales will increase in November and December but not necessarily for jewelers.
Mastercard predicts retail sales will grow 3.7 percent in November and December, though jewelry sales are forecast to remain essentially flat amid a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
Purchase, N.Y.—‘Tis the season for the holiday forecasts to keep rolling in.
Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.
SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.
Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.
This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.
The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.
The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically.
“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc.
“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
Related stories will be right here …
Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.
SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.
Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.
This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.
The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.
The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically.
“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc.
“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
The two categories Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts will post the largest increases in spending this holiday season are electronics (up 6 percent year-over-year) and restaurants (up 5 percent year-over-year).
Mastercard said electronics, gadgets and gaming are expected to be popular among consumers this year, as artificial intelligence, immersive experiences, and digital workspaces continue to the change the way people work and play.
In addition, consumers who purchased new electronics at the onset of the pandemic may be looking to upgrade this year.
As for restaurant spending, the company said consumers are keen on gathering with loved ones for shared meals and festivities outside of the home after a few years of being isolated.
When it comes to where consumers will be shopping this holiday season, Mastercard said this season’s shopper is looking to “make purchases anytime, anywhere.”
It predicts in-store sales will increase 3 percent year-over-year while e-commerce sales are expected to grow 7 percent.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
PodcastsMay 20, 2026
Episode 5: Sotheby’s Frank Everett Puts the Auction Market in PerspectiveEverett covers colored stones’ surging popularity, the mellow return of the “Mellon Blue,” and his “The Devil Wears Prada” doppelgänger.
CrimeMay 20, 2026
NYPD Warns of Jewelry Swap Scams Targeting SeniorsThe NYPD is warning elderly New Yorkers to keep their jewelry hidden when walking outside to avoid being a target.
IndependentsMay 20, 2026
Adornment & Theory’s New Store Feels Like Home Designer Viviana Langhoff has realized her dream of owning a space for her Chicago jewelry store that looks and feels like her brand.
Brought to you by
All Eyes on Gold Prices. Alternatives to Look For. And What to BEWARE of in VegasAs gold prices rise, today’s retailers are looking for alternatives at prices that will appeal to wider audiences.
Events & AwardsMay 20, 2026
Here Is Couture’s 2026 Education Lineup The sessions will run from Friday, May 29, to Sunday, May 31, with one being a live taping of an episode of Couture’s podcast.
Weekly QuizMay 14, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Lab-GrownMay 20, 2026
Savannah Friedkin Jewelry Names New CEOFormer Stephanie Gottlieb Fine Jewelry executive Morgan P. Richardson is joining the lab-grown diamond jewelry brand.
WatchesMay 19, 2026
Here’s the AP x Swatch Pocket Watch That Caused PandemoniumThe $400 pocket watch is a blend of Audemars Piguet’s iconic eight-sided Royal Oak and Swatch’s unserious Pop watches from the ‘80s.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
CollectionsMay 19, 2026
Chris Ploof’s New Collection Makes an Ancient Medal ModernWith gold prices on the rise, the “Modern Electrum” collection uses an alternative, non-tarnishing metal alloy composed of gold and silver.
IndependentsMay 19, 2026
Ellen and Michael Fruchtman Retire, Sell Marketing Agency Fruchtman Marketing has new owners, Erin Moyer-Carballea and Manuel Carballea, and will relocate to Miami.
ColumnistsMay 19, 2026
Peter Smith: The (Mostly) Immutable Sales TruthsIn a column for the 2026 State of the Majors issue, Smith lists 10 time-tested principles about sales that still ring true.
ColumnistsMay 18, 2026
Edahn Golan: What a K-Shaped Economy Means for Fine JewelryIn a column for the 2026 State of the Majors issue, Golan spells out how the growing economic divide in the U.S. is reshaping the market.
CollectionsMay 18, 2026
Foundrae’s New Collection Taps Into JoyThe “Limitless Expansion of Joy and Hope” collection evokes summer through colored gemstones and motifs of butterflies and florals.
CollectionsMay 18, 2026
Hancocks London Acquires Historic ‘Inchiquin’ EmeraldThe jewel, circa 1890, is from the late Victorian era and was owned by descendants of the last high king of Ireland.
Events & AwardsMay 18, 2026
Here Are the 2026 JCK Industry Fund Grant Recipients This is what the nine recipients plan to do with the funds.
AuctionsMay 15, 2026
American Collector Ponies Up Almost $17K for John Wayne’s RingThe Western star’s 14-karat gold signet ring sold for six times its low estimate following a bidding war at U.K. auction house Elmwood’s.
Events & AwardsMay 15, 2026
JA, MJSA To Sponsor Roundtable at TJSThe discussion, "Rebuilding the Jewelry Workforce," will take place on Saturday, May 16, in Troy, Michigan.
SourcingMay 15, 2026
State of Diamonds: The Way Forward for Natural DiamondsThe jewelry industry is reassessing its positioning as Gen Z reshapes the retail landscape and lab grown continues to gain market share.
AuctionsMay 14, 2026
White Diamonds Lead Sotheby’s Auction, Blue Diamond Does Not SellA matching pair of 18.38-carat, D-color diamonds from Botswana’s Jwaneng mine sold for $3.3 million, the top lot of the jewelry auction.
Supplier BulletinMay 14, 2026
A Diamond Is Forever Continues Desert Diamonds – Bridal ReinvigoratedSponsored by A Diamond Is Forever
SourcingMay 14, 2026
State of Colored Stones: The Spirit of Young American Gemstone CuttersThe next generation of lapidarists are entrepreneurial, engaged online, and see the craft as a means for artistic expression.
AuctionsMay 14, 2026
‘Ocean Dream’ Makes Waves at Christie’s, Fetching $17MIt was the second auction appearance for the fancy vivid blue-green diamond, which sold for $7.8 million at Christie’s Geneva 12 years ago.
CrimeMay 14, 2026
Second Man Arrested in Florida Pawn Shop Shooting Members of the U.S. Marshals Task Force took a 22-year-old man into custody. He was charged with tampering with evidence.
CrimeMay 13, 2026
JSA’s 2025 Crime Report Shows ‘Concerning’ Rise in ViolenceWhile the overall number of crimes was down, there were more incidences in which robbers pulled out guns, mace, or rammed cars into stores.
IndependentsMay 13, 2026
New Orleans Jeweler Closing Canal Place StoreJack Sutton Fine Jewelry is closing its store inside the downtown shopping center after 40 years in business.
SourcingMay 13, 2026
Smithsonian Acquires ‘Winston Red’ Diamond PaintingReena Ahluwalia’s painting of the rare red diamond is the first contemporary painting to join the National Gem Collection.
TrendsMay 13, 2026
State of Design: Only the Innovative Will SurviveThe price of gold has risen, affecting the number of pieces designers make, the materials they use, and how they position themselves.
