Surveys

Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday Prediction

SurveysSep 26, 2023

Mastercard Makes Its 2023 Holiday Prediction

According to SpendingPulse, retail sales will increase in November and December but not necessarily for jewelers.

Gold holiday gift boxes
Mastercard predicts retail sales will grow 3.7 percent in November and December, though jewelry sales are forecast to remain essentially flat amid a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.
Purchase, N.Y.—‘Tis the season for the holiday forecasts to keep rolling in.

Mastercard released its outlook for the 2023 holiday season last week and, like Bain & Company and Deloitte, it expects retail sales to grow, but not by much.

According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) will increase about 4 percent year-over-year during the holiday season, defined as Nov. 1-Dec. 24.

SpendingPulse measures both online and in-store retail stores across all forms of payments (not just Mastercard purchases). It is not adjusted for inflation.

Consumer spending is expected to rise across all but one of the five categories SpendingPulse tracks—jewelry.

Jewelry sales are expected to decline 0.3 percent year-over-year amid what the company described as a “rebalancing” in consumer spending.

In 2022, there was pent-up demand. Consumers had excess savings and wages were rising while inflationary pricing aided retailers.

This year, Mastercard expects spending to normalize in line with macroeconomic trends. Demand is leveling off and consumers are finding themselves with less of a financial cushion as inflation continues to cut into their savings.

The fine jewelry industry already has begun to witness the slowdown after two years of sky-high sales.

The industry’s largest retailer, Signet Jewelers, had a rough second quarter due in part to a decline in the number of engagements while De Beers Group is spending $20 million to ensure consumers stay interested in diamonds, natural diamonds specifically. 

“This holiday season, retailers will be vying for consumer dollars. With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Inc. 

“We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are— personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”

 Related stories will be right here … 

The two categories Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts will post the largest increases in spending this holiday season are electronics (up 6 percent year-over-year) and restaurants (up 5 percent year-over-year). 

Mastercard said electronics, gadgets and gaming are expected to be popular among consumers this year, as artificial intelligence, immersive experiences, and digital workspaces continue to the change the way people work and play. 

In addition, consumers who purchased new electronics at the onset of the pandemic may be looking to upgrade this year. 

As for restaurant spending, the company said consumers are keen on gathering with loved ones for shared meals and festivities outside of the home after a few years of being isolated. 

When it comes to where consumers will be shopping this holiday season, Mastercard said this season’s shopper is looking to “make purchases anytime, anywhere.” 

It predicts in-store sales will increase 3 percent year-over-year while e-commerce sales are expected to grow 7 percent. 

The Latest

Sothebys The Desert Rose orangy pink diamond collectors week
AuctionsAug 29, 2025
Sotheby’s UAE Sale to Feature 32-Carat Fancy Vivid Orangy Pink Diamond

The highlight of a single-owner jewelry and watch collection, it’s estimated to fetch up to $7 million at auction this December.

Calvin Klein watch and jewelry campaign
FinancialsAug 29, 2025
Movado’s Q2 Sales Rebound Despite Tariff Impact

CEO Efraim Grinberg noted a resurgence in the fashion watch market.

Mark Davis Bullseye Necklace
CollectionsAug 29, 2025
Piece of the Week: Mark Davis’ ‘Bullseye’ Necklace

The “Bullseye” necklace, with vintage bakelite and peridot, August’s birthstone, is the perfect transitional piece as summer turns to fall.

japac-btyb.png
Brought to you by
Rallying Call for the Jewelry Industry on Tariffs and Other Key Issues

Jewelers of America is leading the charge to protect the industry amidst rising economic threats.

Image #1_Resized.png
Supplier BulletinAug 28, 2025
Clientbook Is Helping Jewelers Turn Clienteling Challenges into Wins with Hands-On Training and Coaching

Sponsored by Clientbook

Weekly QuizAug 29, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
GIA’s new report for lab-grown diamonds
GradingAug 28, 2025
GIA’s New ‘Quality Assessment’ for Lab-Grown Diamonds Is Coming

It will classify lab-grown stones into one of two categories, “premium” or “standard,” in lieu of giving specific color and clarity grades.

Botswana President Duma Boko
SourcingAug 28, 2025
Botswana Declares Public Health Emergency Amid Diamond Sales Slump

President Duma Boko addressed the country’s medical supply chain crisis in a recent televised address.

rio-article photo-diamond.jpg
Brought to you by
Taking the Moment Head On: How Rio Grande Champions the Present & Future of Fine Jewelry

As a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.

Afton Robertson-Kanne Borsheims
MajorsAug 28, 2025
Borsheims Names New Jewelry Buyer

Former Free People buyer Afton Robertson-Kanne recently joined the retailer.

Sissy’s Log Cabin Back to School and Bling
IndependentsAug 28, 2025
Sissy’s Log Cabin Donates School Supplies to Memphis Students

The jeweler teamed up with two local organizations for its inaugural “Back to School and Bling” event.

Taylor Swift Engaged
EditorsAug 27, 2025
Taylor Swift’s Engagement Ring Is a Fairy Tale for Vintage Diamond Cuts

The singer’s new bling, reportedly a natural old mine-cut diamond, is no paper ring.

11,685-carat Imboo emerald
SourcingAug 27, 2025
11,685-Carat Emerald Recovered From Zambia’s Kagem Mine

Dubbed the “Imboo,” or “buffalo,” emerald, the rough gemstone is part of Gemfields’ latest emerald auction, which is taking place now.

Mine + Found Play Collection Prize Bubble Locket, Whistle Pendent, Fortune Dice
CollectionsAug 27, 2025
Mined + Found’s New Collection Gets Playful

The “Play” collection centers on nostalgic toys that have kinetic elements to carry playfulness and wonder into adulthood.

CCWW lifesaver necklace
CollectionsAug 26, 2025
Does Your Jewelry Stack Need a Snack?

Designer Christina Puchi, the creative force behind CCWW Designs, has created charms and pendants based on iconic candies and crackers.

Nick Jonas x Fossil Campaign
WatchesAug 26, 2025
Nick Jonas Gets Nostalgic in New Fossil Campaign

The Jonas Brothers star showed off new timepieces against the backdrop of his favorite spots in his home state of New Jersey.

Wally Hinkamp and Donna Hinkamp Warren
IndependentsAug 26, 2025
Hinkamp Jewelers Celebrates 70 Years

The family-owned jeweler in Fayetteville, North Carolina, is in the hands of the second generation.

Emmanuel Raheb
ColumnistsAug 26, 2025
Back to School, Back to Style: Why August is Prime Time for Self-Gifting

In his latest column, Emmanuel Raheb shares tips for encouraging customers to treat themselves to new jewelry.

London Jewelers Rolex East Hampton Boutique Exterior
WatchesAug 25, 2025
London Jewelers Brings Rolex to Historic Hamptons Home

The new stand-alone Rolex boutique is housed in the former Odd Fellows Hall, a landmark built in 1897.

Madison Keys
CollectionsAug 25, 2025
Tennis Star Madison Keys Has the Perfect Necklace for the US Open

The Brilliant Earth ambassador co-designed a diamond medallion featuring meaningful symbols.

Marie Lichtenberg emerald and diamond locket on the 18-karat gold “Rosa” chain
TrendsAug 25, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: That’s a Wrap

Wrap jewelry is more than just a trend; it’s the perfect motif for the coming season of layering, scarves, and pumpkin spice.

WatchTime New York
WatchesAug 25, 2025
WatchTime NY Show Returns for 10th Anniversary Edition

The three-day watch collector show, coming this October, will feature 44 exhibiting brands, as well as a new dinner experience.

Sriram “Ram” Natarajan
GradingAug 22, 2025
Former Head of GIA India Promoted to Oversee Global Operations

Sriram “Ram” Natarajan is now GIA’s senior vice president of laboratory operations and is based out of the lab’s headquarters in Carlsbad.

Retrouvaí Diamond Vein Bond Collar
CollectionsAug 22, 2025
Piece of the Week: Retrouvaí’s ‘Diamond Vein Bond’ Collar

The one-of-a-kind collar represents the beauty of imperfection and the strength to rebuild.

Kendra Scott
MajorsAug 22, 2025
Kendra Scott Returns as CEO of Her Jewelry Empire

Three C-suite executives, including former CEO Tom Nolan, have resigned as part of what the company describes as a “transition.”

Claire’s storefront
MajorsAug 21, 2025
Claire’s Finds Buyer, Could Save up to 950 Stores

The retailer, which recently filed Chapter 11, inked a deal to sell its North American business and intellectual property.

Target CEO Brian Cornell and COO Michael Fiddelke
MajorsAug 21, 2025
Target Names New CEO as Sales Continue to Lag

Target CEO Brian Cornell will step down in February and be replaced by the company’s chief operating officer, Michael Fiddelke.

Jewelers of America in Washington DC
Policies & IssuesAug 21, 2025
JA, IDMA Talk Tariffs With Execs in DC

The group met with the president's senior trade advisor earlier this week to express the industry’s concerns about the effects of tariffs.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy