Surveys

Retail Sales Will Increase 4% This Year, NRF Says

SurveysFeb 06, 2019

Retail Sales Will Increase 4% This Year, NRF Says

The National Retail Federation predicts that the government shutdown, a volatile stock market and threats of a trade war will not detract from a healthy economy in the year ahead.

Washington—The National Retail Federation has predicted that despite economic and political anxiety in the United States, the economy, and retail sales, will continue to grow largely unaffected in 2019.

In its prediction for the year ahead, released Tuesday, the NRF said that retail sales will increase between 3.8 and 4.4 percent, totaling $3.82 to $3.84 trillion. (The NRF does not include include automobiles, gas stations or restaurants in its retail calculations.)

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay described the underlying state of the economy as “sound,” despite the recently concluded government shutdown, a volatile stock market and threats of a trade war.

“More people are working, they’re making more money, their taxes are lower and their confidence remains high. The biggest priority is to ensure that our economy continues to grow and to avoid self-inflicted wounds. It’s time for artificial problems like trade wars and shutdowns to end, and to focus on prosperity not politics.”

Last year, retail sales increased 4.6 percent over the year prior to $3.68 trillion, topping NRF’s 4.5 percent growth prediction.

Online and other non-store sales were up 10.4 percent to $682.8 billion, in line with the NRF’s prediction of a 10 to 12 percent gain.

The retail trade association is predicting the same online growth percentage this year, which would total approximately $751.1 to $764.8 billion in sales. (Online sales are included in overall 2019 estimates.)

The NRF is basing its preliminary 2018 figures on U.S. Commerce Department numbers released through November coupled with its own estimates for the month of December, as the Commerce Department has yet to release December figures due to the government shutdown.

The association also said that this year the American economy should create about 170,000 new jobs each month, down from 220,000 per month last year, but the current 4 percent unemployment rate should drop to 3.5 percent. Gross domestic product will increase about 2.5 percent from last year, and inflation and interest rates will stay low.

“Consumers are in better shape than any time in the last few years,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Most important for the year ahead will be the ongoing strength in the job market, which will support the consumer income and spending that are both key drivers of the economy. The bottom line is that the economy is in a good place despite the ups and downs of the stock market and other uncertainties. Growth remains solid.”

Kleinhenz noted that new tariffs enacted in 2018 on steel, aluminum and Chinese goods have yet to produce a large economic toll, but that future tariffs could potentially raise the price of consumer goods, especially if the tariffs scheduled for Chinese products that would increase them from 10 to 25 percent happens on March 1.

As for the government shutdown, the effects are hard to quantify, Kleinhenz said. Government employees will receive missed pay retroactively but spent less money in the economy, while government contractors lost out on income during the period. 

The NRF said that first-quarter economic spending also will be affected by how quickly the Internal Revenue Service will be able to handle a “potential backlog” of tax returns.
Ashley Davisis the senior editor, fashion at National Jeweler, covering all things related to design, style and trends.

The Latest

Tallulah Willis’ Engagement Ring
TrendsApr 03, 2025
Tallulah Willis Imbues Antique Engagement Ring With Magic

The 4-carat, old mine brilliant-cut diamond engagement ring was co-designed by Willis and New York City-based brand Karina Noel.

158.2-carat yellow diamond from Diavik
SourcingApr 03, 2025
Canadian Mine Produces 158-Carat Yellow Diamond

Rio Tinto unearthed the diamond at its Diavik mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories.

Buccellati Naturalia exhibition
CollectionsApr 03, 2025
Buccellati to Open Immersive Exhibition in Milan

The multisensory experience, open April 8-13, will feature the brand’s silver creations among dream-like scenes of natural landscapes.

bench jeweler 1872x1052.png
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They Deserve

Bench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.

Jewelers of America logo
Policies & IssuesApr 03, 2025
Jewelers of America to Hold Webinar on Tariffs

The virtual event will take place April 7 at 3 p.m.

Weekly QuizMar 27, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Bea Bongiasca Animali Tarallo Collection Royal Blue Tang Fish “Dory”
CollectionsApr 02, 2025
Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Tarallo’ Collection Expansion Is a Zoo

The pieces in “Animali Tarallo” portray animals from stingrays to elephants through portraits and interpretations of their patterns.

Neiman Marcus Downtown Dallas store
MajorsApr 02, 2025
Neiman Marcus’ Dallas Flagship Will Remain Open, For Now

Parent company Saks Global said the iconic location will be open through the holiday season as it decides what to do with the space.

Facets-of-Fire-Difference-You-Can-See.jpg
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean More

Natural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.

Natural color diamonds on display at Smithsonian National Museum of History
SourcingApr 02, 2025
Winston’s Collection of Natural Color Diamonds Now on Display in D.C.

Ronald Winston, son of Harry Winston, donated the diamonds to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.

Punchmark
Events & AwardsApr 02, 2025
Punchmark to Host Client Workshop

The educational event will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, this May.

Bergman Jewelers family
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 Years

The independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.

QVC Group Inc. logo
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.

The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.

Coconut Grove Jewelry & Watch Show
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in Florida

The debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.

The Jewelry Symposium (TJS)
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor Shortage

The roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.

Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann Collection Bracelets
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry Collection

The “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.

Graphic for What Do We Mean When We Say “Recycled” Gold webinar
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?

Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.

Mindi Mond Clarity Earrings
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in Diamonds

Diamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.

Lashbrook ring
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With Acquisition

The Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.

Bulgari and LVMH Watches CEO Jean-Christophe Babin
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH Watches

The longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.

Surveillance footage of robbery
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry Store

Authorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.

Nephrite and Jadeite by Heinrich Fischer, Richard W. Hughes
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in English

Lotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.

LÖF The Valentine Ring
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ Ring

The ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.

Richard Rainsford memorial ring
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction

However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.

Austin Butler
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand Ambassador

The Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.

ICA Congress Brazil 2025
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress

The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.

Bailey’s Fine Jewelry storefront
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent Jeweler

The family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Bulova 150 Art Deco Miss America Watch, 150 Art Deco Pocket Watch
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco Watches

The “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy