4 Predictions on Retail and Diamond Desire in 2019

EditorsFeb 14, 2019

4 Predictions on Retail and Diamond Desire in 2019

It will be a watershed year for man-made diamonds, Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff writes.

A man-made diamond engagement ring in the packaging for “Grown With Love,” the lab-grown diamond line sold at Macy’s and J.C. Penney. With so many lab-grown diamonds hitting the market, our editor-in-chief says 2019 will be a watershed moment for the industry.

Last month, I had the pleasure of traveling to sunny Scottsdale, Arizona for the annual Centurion show and of catching up with retailers after the holiday season.

What I mostly heard was this: 2018 was a good year and jewelers were expecting a strong December, but the month took a dive alongside the stock market. And the events of late 2018/early 2019, including the 35-day government shutdown, have left retailers feeling unsure what to expect in the year ahead.

What is certain, however, is that this year is going to be very telling in terms of lab-grown diamonds. How will consumers take to the lines that are out there? Will they buy them for fashion jewelry or engagement rings? Will one brand or company begin to emerge as the dominant player in the space?

Read on for four thoughts on what lies ahead for the jewelry industry in 2019.

1. Retailers are feeling ________ about 2019.
Cautiously optimistic. Concerned. Unsure. These are all words I heard circulating at Centurion after a disappointing December capped off an otherwise strong year in 2018.

What will happen with the trade war? Will there be another shutdown (this was talked about at Centurion, although the answer now seems to be no)? How much did the first one shake up consumers?

Are we headed for a recession? Recessions are especially problematic for jewelry because it’s a discretionary purchase; you don’t need to replace a ring the same way you need to replace a car or a refrigerator. As one retailer put it: “We’re the first thing to go.”

Another word that came up: nervous, and it’s not just retailers who are nervous.

“I think everybody is just nervous about everything,” one retailer from the south shared.

She said she feels like she has the right merchandise and marketing in place at her store, but whether people will buy is the big unknown at this point. She also noted that looming ahead of 2019 is a presidential election year and an election always “screws things up.”

Feel free to fill in the blank with your own adjectives in the comments section below.

2. The year will tell us a lot about how consumers view diamonds, and Valentine’s Day will be the first big test.
A head-spinning number of headlines about lab-grown diamonds hit the internet every day, but I think they all can be boiled down to this:

Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay; the genie is not going back in the bottle.

Consumers are going to buy them, though in what quantities and for what purposes remains to be seen.

My guess: They will take a big bite out of the middle market, particularly for lower-priced fashion jewelry.

Yes, some will buy lab-grown diamond engagement rings, but I think the bulk of man-made diamond sales will be to those consumers who say, “Hey, I can get a nice version of this diamond earring/necklace/bracelet for less. Who cares about the romance of it coming from the Earth? I’m saving money, and it’s a nice gift for myself/my daughter/my best friend.”

As I noted above, however, this is just a guess, and time will ultimately tell what consumers want—lab-grown or mined—and what they want it for, with 2019 being a watershed moment in that story.

How will, for example, J.C. Penney and Macy’s do with “Grown With Love,” the line featuring diamonds grown mainly by WD Lab Grown Diamonds and set in jewelry manufactured, distributed and marketed by Richline? Will they sell enough to continue those lines?

How will Lightbox fare, and will De Beers continue to push the envelope, introducing bigger and better stones and more styles, including rings?

This Atelier Swarovski x Stephen Webster bracelet features 14-karat yellow gold cages housing Swarovski-created rose quartz and set with lab-grown diamonds, also from Swarovski. At $11,000, it’s the highest-priced piece in the line.

What about fashion lines like Atelier Swarovski x Stephen Webster? How well will those sell, and will the designers who made them keep going? Will we see one designer come up with that have-to-have design using man-made diamonds and emerge as the dominant player?

And what about the diamond growers themselves, companies like Diamond Foundry, the California-based company that experimented with, but ultimately didn’t make it in, brick-and-mortar retail? What will their role in the future of the industry look like?

3. Smart companies will stop and think.
In addition to acting as a gauge on consumers’ appetite for man-made diamonds, 2019 is going to be a good year for those selling diamonds today—man-made or natural—to evaluate the market for diamond jewelry going forward.

Some questions that spring to mind include:
--How are changing societal attitudes toward marriage in the U.S. going to impact demand for diamonds, given that engagement rings represent a big chunk of the market?

People are getting married later, often living together and/or having children first.

Or they’re not getting married at all. The U.S. Census Bureau released a “Families and Living Arrangements” table in 2018 that showed that single-person households comprised 28 percent of all households in the U.S. last year. In 1960, that number was 13 percent. The table also showed that 32 percent of all adults age 15 and over have never been married.

Are these long-term trends (I would say yes, for a variety of reasons) and, if so, is diamond marketing prepared to evolve to reflect that?

--How will diamonds stand up in the face of increased competition and, for some groups, declining discretionary income?

There are so many things to spend money on today, aren’t there? As The Wedding Report founder Shane McMurray noted in my story on engagement ring spending, there’s lattes and dinners out and gadgets and clothes, not to mention to the rise in the amount people are spending on what is generally referred to as “wellness”—special vitamins, yoga classes, boutique gym memberships, juice cleanses, etc.

Add to this the fact that many people’s wages aren’t keeping pace with the cost of living, and it equals less money for everything that’s not necessary.

--For those with plenty of discretionary income, what is the No. 1 luxury item that’s taking money away from diamond jewelry?

I would guess it’s not a tangible item, like a handbag or a pair of shoes, but rather experiences, particularly travel. Is there a way to compete with that?

The jewelry department inside a J.C. Penney store. The retailer is one of a handful that is on multiple retail bankruptcy watch lists for 2019.

4. Well-known retailers will continue to file for bankruptcy.
This last one is a bit of a cheat, as we’re less than 50 days into the year and, already, we’ve seen seven retailers go Chapter 11, according to Retail Dive’s running list of bankruptcy victims for the year. Among them were long-time mall staples Things Remembered, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe.

So which stores that carry fine jewelry are in danger in 2019?

I predicted in early 2018 that Sears would cease to exist and while it has risen from the ashes, it’s hard to imagine what it can do to make itself relevant again and stay in business.

J.C. Penney is another retailer we’ve been watching for a while, and Neiman Marcus is also a name that keeps popping up on various bankruptcy watch lists, with some predicting that 2019 could be on par with 2017 in terms of the number of retailers going Chapter 11.
Michelle Graffis the editor-in-chief at National Jeweler, directing the publication’s coverage both online and in print.

The Latest

Stock image of police crime scene tape
CrimeApr 24, 2024
Jewelry Crime Declines Significantly, But Dollar Losses Remain High

A double-digit drop in the number of in-store crimes was offset by a jump in off-premises attacks, JSA’s 2023 crime report shows.

Kirsty Hume models Pippa Small Venus collection
CollectionsApr 24, 2024
Pippa Small Announces ‘Venus’ Collection

Inspired by the Roman goddess of love, the designer looked to the sea for her new collection.

Pomellato Pom Pom Dot necklaces
FinancialsApr 24, 2024
Kering’s Jewelry Brands a Bright Spot in Tough Q1

The luxury titan posted declining sales, weighed down by Gucci’s poor performance.

Brought to you by
The Blueprint for Success in Scalable, Personalized Jewelry Retail

With Ho Brothers, you can unlock your brand's true potential and offer customers the personalized jewelry experiences they desire.

JCK Industry Fund Logo
Events & AwardsApr 24, 2024
JCK Industry Fund Announces 2024 Grant Recipients

The selected nine organizations have outlined their plans for the funds.

Weekly QuizApr 19, 2024
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
Take the Quiz
Aerial shot of the Diavik Diamond Mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories
SourcingApr 24, 2024
Rio Tinto’s Q1 Production Drops Amid Pause to Honor Lost Colleagues

The mining company’s Diavik Diamond Mine lost four employees in a plane crash in January.

Rolex Oyster Perpetual Deepsea in 18-karat yellow gold
WatchesApr 24, 2024
These Are Rolex’s New Watches for 2024

The crown introduced a dozen timepieces in Geneva, including a heavy metal version of its deep-sea divers’ watch.

Jewelers of America Fly In Washington, D.C.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers of America Represents Your Business

For over 30 years, JA has advocated for the industry, fought against harmful legislation and backed measures that help jewelry businesses.

National Jeweler columnist Emmanuel Raheb
ColumnistsApr 23, 2024
The Smart Lab: Advanced Email Marketing Strategies for Mother’s Day

Emmanuel Raheb recommends digging into demographic data, customizing your store’s communications, and retargeting ahead of May 12.

Hannoush Jewelers Queensbury NY location
IndependentsApr 23, 2024
Hannoush Jewelers Opens New Store in New York

Located in the town of Queensbury, it features a dedicated bridal section and a Gabriel & Co. store-in-store.

203-carat, 116-carat, and 42-carat diamond
SourcingApr 23, 2024
Lucapa Sells 3 Diamonds for $10.5M in First Lulo Tender of 2024

A 203-carat diamond from the alluvial mine in Angola achieved the highest price.

William Ruser: The Jeweler Who Charmed Hollywood book cover
GradingApr 23, 2024
GIA Has a New Book About William Ruser

Ruser was known for his figural jewelry with freshwater pearls and for his celebrity clientele.

Adam Levine and Behati Prinsloo modeling Jacquie Aiche’s Rebel Heart collection
CollectionsApr 22, 2024
Jacquie Aiche’s New Campaign Stars Adam Levine, Behati Prinsloo

The “Rebel Heart” campaign embodies rebellion, romance, and sensuality, the brand said.

Virtual Diamond Boutique
SourcingApr 22, 2024
Virtual Diamond Boutique Rebrands as ‘VDB’

The overhaul includes a new logo and enhanced digital marketplace.

Signet Jewelers employees and St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital
MajorsApr 22, 2024
Signet Raises Nearly $9M for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital

The money will go toward supporting ongoing research and aftercare programs for childhood cancer survivors.

Retrouvaí’s Treasure Necklace
CollectionsApr 19, 2024
Piece of the Week: Retrouvaí’s Treasure Necklace

A new addition to the “Heirloom” collection, this one-of-a-kind piece features 32 custom-cut gemstones.

Stock image crime handcuffs
CrimeApr 19, 2024
Grand Jury to Hear Case Against Jeweler Charged in Fatal Shove Following IJO Show

Last month in Dallas, David Walton pushed another jeweler, David Ettinger, who later died.

China Pearl collage
MajorsApr 19, 2024
Unique Designs Acquires China Pearl

The move will allow the manufacturing company to offer a more “diverse and comprehensive” range of products.

Printed and digital AGS Ideal grading reports
GradingApr 19, 2024
AGS Ideal Report Now Available in Printed Form

From now through mid-May, GIA will be offering the reports at a 50 percent discount.

Stock image of a polished diamond in tweezers
SourcingApr 18, 2024
Diamond Trade Remains Cautious Amid Economic Uncertainty

De Beers’ rough diamond sales were down 18 percent year-over-year in its latest round of sales.

Supplier BulletinApr 18, 2024
Discover History’s Hidden Gems at the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show

Sponsored by the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show

Kelly Yoch
WatchesApr 18, 2024
Watch E-tailer Collectability Hires Kelly Yoch

The Patek Philippe expert will serve as personal curator for the brand-focused company.

Interior of TAG Heuer Boutique on Carnival Cruise Ship
WatchesApr 18, 2024
TAG Heuer Opens Its Largest Standalone Boutique at Sea

The 553-square-foot shop is aboard the Carnival Jubilee cruise ship.

 Stock image of a gavel
Policies & IssuesApr 17, 2024
NDC Prevails in U.K. Case Over Lab-Grown Diamond Advertising

NDC filed a complaint against Skydiamond for use of phrases like “diamonds made entirely from the sky.”

John Carter, 2024 Shipley Award winner
Events & AwardsApr 17, 2024
And the 2024 Winner of the Shipley Award Is …

John Carter received the AGS’s highest honor Tuesday afternoon at Conclave in Austin, Texas.

Visual from Tiffany & Co.’s With Love Since 1837 campaign
FinancialsApr 17, 2024
LVMH’s Q1 Jewelry Sales Fall 5%

LVMH said the company performed well despite an uncertain geopolitical and economic environment.

 B&D ribbon cutting in RI
MajorsApr 17, 2024
Stuller’s B&D Opens New Headquarters

B&D Sales and Service held a ribbon-cutting event for its new location in Cranston, Rhode Island.


This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy