SurveysMar 02, 2026
Consumer Confidence Edges Up in FebruarySurveysMar 19, 2026
NRF Forecasts 4% Retail Sales Growth in 2026
From a weaker labor market to inflation, NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews gave insight on what retailers can expect this year.
Retail sales are forecast to grow 4.4 percent this year to $5.6 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation.
Washington, D.C.—Retail sales are forecast to grow 4.4 percent in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation, reaching $5.6 trillion.
The trade organization announced its forecast during its sixth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event on Tuesday, partnering with economic advisory firm Oxford Economics to crunch the numbers.
Retail sales growth was up 3.9 percent year-over-year in 2025.
The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6 percent average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022.
Notably, the NRF’s retail sales forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
The trade organization announced its forecast during its sixth annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event on Tuesday, partnering with economic advisory firm Oxford Economics to crunch the numbers.
Retail sales growth was up 3.9 percent year-over-year in 2025.
The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6 percent average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022.
Notably, the NRF’s retail sales forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
The NRF’s forecast is also not adjusted for inflation. While inflation is expected to stay above the Federal Reserve’s target, goods inflation is likely to stay within a lower range.
This means that the NRF’s projected sales growth should reflect real gains rather than an inflation-driven rise in spending, the organization said.
Mark Mathews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research, led the forecast segment of the virtual event, giving more insight into the overall economy.
“The U.S. economy was a bit up and down in 2025. However, the one bright spot through these ups and downs was the consumer, whose spending was a key economic driver in 2025,” said Mathews.
That strength is expected to continue in 2026, he said, with consumer spending again providing key support for the economy.
“We also anticipate that this will not be uniform across all income groups,” he noted.
The spending outlook is still bifurcated between higher- and lower-income consumers, typical of what economists refer to as a “K-shaped” economy, with higher-income shoppers driving most of the spending growth across several retail categories.
Consumer spending is expected to get a boost during the first half of the year, said the NRF, due to the tax cuts under the Working Families Tax Cut Act, part of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
While it will result in tax cuts for some families, critics of the bill have argued the benefits will be concentrated to the wealthiest consumers, and the refunds will do little to outweigh the rising costs related to tariffs.
Inflation is expected to remain elevated for the first half of the year before easing up in the third quarter.
The NRF continues to expect a weaker labor market, he said, with non-farm employment remaining muted throughout the year.
However, this isn’t expected to have a significant impact on the unemployment rate, which should remain below 4.5 percent, said Mathews.
“The disconnect between GDP and the labor market should remain pronounced throughout the year, with GDP growth rising mainly from productivity improvements,” he said.
While consumer sentiment isn’t expected to improve, Mathews noted the common disconnect between how people feel and how people spend.
Mathews added that the uncertainty in the Middle East was not accounted for when crafting its forecast, and said the NRF will continue to assess its impact and issue a new forecast if needed. be.
“Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” said Mathews.
“While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”
The full virtual event can be watched here.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsJun 12, 2026
16th-Century ‘Hogback’ Diamond Ring Going Up for Auction in LondonFound by a metal detectorist, the ring likely belonged to a wealthy, possibly royal, owner, said Noonans.
CollectionsJun 12, 2026
Chouette Designs To Launch Collection Celebrating All Types of LoveOur Pride Month Piece of the Week, the “Margaux” ring, is part of the wife-and-wife team’s new “Lovestoned” collection.
Events & AwardsJun 12, 2026
CBG Announces Plans for Phoenix ShowThe group has named the keynote speaker and announced a new pavilion for its next event, which is slated for September.
Brought to you by
All Eyes on Gold Prices. Alternatives to Look For. And What to BEWARE of in VegasAs gold prices rise, today’s retailers are looking for alternatives at prices that will appeal to wider audiences.
EditorsJun 11, 2026
This Was the Best Animal Jewelry in Las Vegas From lions and hippos to snails and fish, Senior Editor Lenore Fedow wrangles her picks for cutest jewelry critters in Las Vegas.
Weekly QuizJun 11, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingJun 11, 2026
Grandview Klein, London Jewelers Partner To Cut 63-Carat RoughThe big stone will be fashioned into a 20.26-carat diamond in celebration of the retailer’s 100th anniversary this year.
MajorsJun 11, 2026
Former Cartier Creative Director To Head Chanel’s Jewelry Creation StudioMarie-Laure Cérède will join Chanel as the new director of its jewelry creation studio, starting in October.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
Lab-GrownJun 11, 2026
Smiling Rocks’ ‘Wish Jar’ Generates 100+ Wishes in Las Vegas At the JCK show, the lab-grown diamond brand teamed up with Jewelers for Children to support Make-A-Wish India.
SourcingJun 11, 2026
Signet Jewelers Exec Joins Diamonds Do Good BoardIlana McCabe is Signet’s vice president of public relations and brand communications.
AuctionsJun 10, 2026
31.62-Carat ‘Azure Blue’ Diamond Sells For $8M+ at Christie’sIt was a banner day for blue gemstones, with another blue diamond topping $8 million and a 41-carat sapphire going for $2.3 million.
MajorsJun 10, 2026
Saks Global Receives Bankruptcy Court Approval for ReorganizationThe approval means the retailer is on track to exit bankruptcy proceedings this summer.
CrimeJun 10, 2026
2 Suspects Arrested in Texas Jewelry Store RobberyThe men are believed to be part of the group of several masked suspects that robbed Marc Robinson Jewelers in April.
CollectionsJun 10, 2026
Sylvie Debuts ‘Elevated’ Bridal Collection Inspired By Designer’s RingThe bridal-focused brand is also launching its Custom Atelier this summer, a digital custom design tool for its authorized retailers.
EditorsJun 09, 2026
Q&A: Al Cook on the Lab-Grown ‘Bubble,’ Dwindling Diamond Supply The De Beers Group CEO also discussed tariffs, Desert Diamonds, and the pending sale of De Beers in an interview with Michelle Graff.
MajorsJun 09, 2026
Wilkerson's Russ Whitehouse RetiresThe industry veteran is bringing his 56-year run in the fine jewelry sector to an end.
Events & AwardsJun 09, 2026
Pride Month Panel to Highlight LGBTQ+ Jewelry VoicesThe panel discussion will feature LGBTQ+ leaders across the jewelry, luxury, and creative industries.
CollectionsJun 09, 2026
Marie Lichtenberg’s New Capsule Collection Is a Smash, LiterallyInspired by a locket that got run over, the “Smash” capsule collection reimagines the shape of Lichtenberg’s signature style.
MajorsJun 09, 2026
Frederick Goldman Names Director of Sales for SoutheastThe company has promoted Katherine Whitacre to the role.
MajorsJun 08, 2026
Stuller Expands Selection of Lab-Grown Diamonds, Demi-Fine JewelryThe jewelry manufacturer has added Taylor Swift-esque diamond shapes, and more silver, gold vermeil, and gold-plated jewelry.
SourcingJun 08, 2026
Sally Morrison to Depart De Beers This Summer Morrison has been marketing diamonds on and off since the early 2000s and said she is leaving to “pursue new projects.”
TrendsJun 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: June’s Birthstone TrioThose born in June can celebrate with pearl, alexandrite, and moonstone jewelry.
TechnologyJun 08, 2026
Overnight Mountings Launches Ring Builder PlatformThe platform allows retailers to guide clients through a customizable engagement ring buying experience in a branded interface.
IndependentsJun 05, 2026
Pennsylvania Jewelry Store To Close After 79 YearsJim Springer, owner of Dunkelberger’s Fine Jewelry, is heading into retirement.
CollectionsJun 05, 2026
Rebel Jewelry’s Charm Symbolizes Perseverance for Pride MonthThe “Tunnel” charm, our Piece of the Week, celebrates Pride Month with its design inspired by hope and the light at the end of the tunnel.
SourcingJun 05, 2026
State of Diamonds: The Way Forward for Natural DiamondsThe jewelry industry is reassessing its positioning as Gen Z reshapes the retail landscape and lab grown continues to gain market share.
AuctionsJun 04, 2026
Treasures from Maurice Tempelsman’s ‘Marvelous’ Life Head to AuctionUp for auction at Sotheby’s, the collection of Tempelsman’s personal effects includes a Cartier Tank watch Jackie O. gifted him.
