Here’s What the NRF Expects This Holiday Season
The U.S. presidential election, inflation, and the aftermath of recent hurricanes could all have an impact on spending.

The organization’s annual forecast said winter holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5 and 3.5 percent year-over-year.
Holiday retail sales are expected to reach between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, the NRF announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call on Tuesday.
It’s a slowdown in growth compared with 2023, when holiday spending was up 4 percent to $955.6 billion.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a statement.
“The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
On the call, Shay noted that the economy has been in a good place this year, operating with solid footing, and said going into the holiday season, consumers are continuing to show resilience and strength in spending.
The holiday forecast is consistent with the NRF’s forecast that annual sales for 2024 will be between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.
Holiday sales in November and December have averaged about 19 percent of total retail sales over the last five years, said the NRF, though it can be higher for some retailers.
Online shopping is expected to be a top driver of overall retail sales growth, said the NRF, similar to forecasts from Deloitte and Adobe Analytics.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8 and 9 percent to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion.
Last year, non-store sales were up 11 percent year-over-year to $273.3 billion.
The recent Adobe report mentioned the use of generative AI this season, a topic Shay also addressed.
Generative AI is a type of artificial intelligence that can create new content, including text, images, videos, and audio. Shoppers may be most familiar with ChatGPT or image generator DALL-E.
He highlighted retailers’ ability to use the technology to serve customers in a more effective way this holiday season.
On the call, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted that the NRF’s forecast may differ from other organizations due to varying definitions of the holiday season and its exclusion of non-core retail.
When comparing this holiday season to last year’s, the NRF stressed a difference in the length of the seasons.
This year, the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be six days shorter, totaling 26 days.
Shay noted that the shipping season will be shorter as a result, which impacts logistics, inventory management, and distribution.
Several factors are expected to play a role in the upcoming holiday season, including the election, inflation, and the aftermath of recent hurricanes.
As for the economic impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, it may be too early to calculate the effect on retail spending.
For those consumers directly affected, said Kleinhenz, spending may shift to replacing the essentials, like home furnishing and electronics.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is also a factor, but “it is nearly impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending,” said the NRF.
Inflation has continued to generate anxiety for consumers and retailers alike, said Kleinhenz, but added, “households have demonstrated their capacity to spend, despite the cumulative effect of inflation.”
In preparation for the holiday season, retailers are expected to hire 400,000 to 500,000 seasonal workers, compared with 509,000 last year.
The NRF noted that some of this hiring may have been pulled into October due to holiday buying events, like the recent Amazon Prime days.
Shay added that because many retailers are already well-staffed, the need for seasonal workers may be lower.
The NRF expects to share more data about the holiday season on Tuesday, Dec. 3, following Cyber Monday.
The Latest

Gomez’s jewelry included Tiffany & Co. drop-style earrings while Blanco stacked diamonds from Jacob & Co. on his wrist.

Diamond industry banking veteran Paul De Wachter will take on the role in January 2026.

Taylor Swift flaunts an Elizabeth Taylor-esque gemstone in promo for her new album, “The Life of a Showgirl.”

Its “Quantre Sand” capsule was made using a 3D sand printing technique borrowed from the automotive and aeronautics industries.


Four individuals have been charged in the “takeover-style” robbery of Heller Jewelers last month, and additional charges are expected.

“Radiance and Reverie” will showcase more than 150 jewels from Lane’s personal collection by Tiffany & Co., Cartier, and more.

With their unmatched services and low fees, reDollar.com is challenging some big names in the online consignment world.

The month’s birthstones, tourmaline and opal, complement the palette of autumn.

Smith shares the importance of looking at your company with openness and honesty to identify opportunities you may be missing.

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco visited Italy to spot jewelry trends at the September Vicenzaoro show and share her top finds.

Its latest interim financials revealed a challenging first half due in part to production troubles at its mines.

Alexander Lacik has led Pandora since 2019. Berta de Pablos-Barbier will succeed him, the first woman to head the company.

Two men allegedly used counterfeit bills to purchase luxury watches and jewelry from a North Carolina jeweler.

The “Lovestruck” collection, designed with the Academy and Grammy award-winning siblings, is the brand’s first lab-grown diamond offering.

The brand, celebrating its 15th anniversary, has popped up at Market, a luxury fashion destination in Highland Park Village.

She was remembered as a creative and generous woman of faith, who also had a sweet tooth.

Move over neck mess, the ear story is the way to make a layering statement today.

The New York-based brand is set to launch a limited-time offering for the holiday season at Holt Renfrew in Toronto.

The “Volume 7” bridal catalog features best-selling engagement rings, trending styles, and a new section highlighting anniversary bands.

Jamie Turner Designs is among the winners of the local “Austin Shines” contest, hosted by Eliza Page, a jewelry store in Austin, Texas.

The red and azure colorway is one of many fun enamel pairings offered, bringing whimsy to the classic style of a monogramed signet ring.

A trade deal with Switzerland seems probable, but reaching an agreement with India remains a challenge, David Bonaparte said.

Botswana’s president said his country wants a controlling share, while Angola envisions multiple countries holding minority stakes.

The manufacturer is adding 1,400 chemical vapor deposition (CVD) reactors to its growing facility in India.

The jeweler to the stars has worked with Drake, A$AP Rocky, Tyler the Creator, and other celebrities.

The Scarsdale, New York-based jeweler donated a professional-grade watch cleaning machine.