Surveys

What to Know About Online Shopping This Holiday Season

SurveysOct 08, 2024

What to Know About Online Shopping This Holiday Season

Deloitte and Adobe Analytics shared their insights on the season, from the retail sales forecast to the role of generative AI.

Stock image of hand holding phone by keyboard
The first predictions about the 2024 holiday season have begun rolling in, with Deloitte forecasting 2 to 3 percent retail sales growth and a “solid” holiday overall, and Adobe Analytics touting the importance of mobile shopping and generative AI.
New York—It’s shaping up to be a merry holiday season for retailers, perhaps even more so for those with a strong online presence, according to two recent holiday reports.

Holiday retail sales are expected to increase between 2.3 and 3.3 percent this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, released last month.

Dollar-wise, Deloitte said holiday sales are projected to total between $1.58 trillion and $1.59 trillion from November to January 2025. 

It would be a slowdown compared with last year when holiday sales rose 4.3 percent year-over-year from November to January (considered by Deloitte to be the holiday period) totaling $1.54 trillion.

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income, combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights. 

“While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”—Michael Jeschke, Deloitte 

E-commerce is expected to be a key driver of retail sales this holiday season, with Deloitte forecasting growth between 7 to 9 percent year-over-year, with sales totaling between $289 billion and $294 billion.

During the 2023 holiday season, e-commerce sales grew 10.1 percent, totaling an estimated $270 billion.

“Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending,” said Michael Jeschke, principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP and retail and consumer products leader.

“While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”

In its report, also released last month, Adobe Analytics shared insights on online shopping this holiday season.

These are the top six takeaways from Adobe’s report.

1) Shopping on mobile will be especially popular this season.
U.S. online sales are expected to hit record levels, said Adobe.

The Adobe report forecasted 8 percent year-over-year growth to $240.8 billion this holiday season, which it considers to be Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.

Last year, shoppers spent $221.8 billion online, a 5 percent year-over-year increase.

Shoppers also are expected to spend a record amount shopping on their mobile devices.

The report forecasted 13 percent year-over-year growth in mobile sales to $121.8 billion, which would account for a 53 percent share of online spending this season, compared with a 47 percent share for desktop shopping.

graph of holiday season spend by year


2) Cyber Monday will still reign supreme.
Spending during so-called Cyber Week, the five-day period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is expected to rise 7 percent year-over-year to $40.6 billion.

Adobe said it expects Cyber Monday to be the biggest shopping day of the season and the year, with spending expected to rise 6 percent to $13.2 billion.

However, Black Friday (10 percent) and Thanksgiving Day (9 percent) are expected to outpace Cyber Monday in terms of year-over-year growth.

Consumers will spend an estimated $10.8 billion on Black Friday and $6.1 billion on Thanksgiving, said Adobe.

In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 71 percent said they plan to shop online on Black Friday while 70 percent said they proactively check for deals during Cyber Week.

3) Despite inflation, shoppers are ready to buy more expensive items.
In its report, Deloitte noted that inflation may act as both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales.

“While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales,” said economist Barua.

“In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared with the previous one.”

Adobe found that months of “persistent inflation” led shoppers to buy less expensive goods across the major e-commerce categories.

However, Adobe expects to see this trend reverse for the holiday season, with sales of the most expensive goods in the categories it tracks set to increase by 19 percent compared with pre-season trends, largely due to competitive discounting.

It expects this effect to be strong in the sporting goods categories, as well as electronics and appliances, with a modest rise for apparel and toys.

The furniture and bedding and groceries categories may see a drop as consumers opt for lower-priced products.

 Related stories will be right here … 

4) Influencers will have an impact on Gen Z shoppers and beyond.
This year, Adobe’s data found that influencers are converting shoppers 10 times more than social media alone, a trend that is expected to continue this holiday season.

In Adobe’s survey, 37 percent of Gen Z respondents said they purchased something based on an influencer’s recommendation. (Members of Generation Z are currently about 12 to 27 years old.)

As for other marketing tools, paid search remained the top driver of retail sales, accounting for 28 percent of online revenue from Jan. 1 to Sept. 3, and is expected to grow by 1 to 3 percent this holiday season.

The fastest growth is expected for affiliates and partners, which includes social media influencers, forecasted to rise 7 to 10 percent. This segment accounts for 17 percent of online revenue.

The affiliates and partners channel is also expected to outpace retailer traffic from social media overall (nearly a 5 percent share), where growth is expected to be 4 percent to 7 percent.

graphic of online spend forecast by category


5) It may be a record season for buy now, pay later purchases.
Adobe expects the buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment method to set a new record this season, up 11 percent year-over-year to account for $18.5 billion in online spending.

BNPL is expected to reach $9.5 billion in November, marking the highest month on record, while Cyber Monday is expected to be the most active day for BNPL, with spending totaling a record $993 million.

BNPL shopping is driven by younger customers on mobile, the report found.

In Adobe’s survey, 39 percent of millennials said they plan to use BNPL services this season, followed by 38 percent of Gen Zers.

The most common reasons cited for using BNPL include freeing up cash (22 percent) and the ability to purchase something they couldn’t afford otherwise (19 percent).

6) Generative AI tools will facilitate holiday shopping.
Generative AI is a type of artificial intelligence that can create new content, including text, images, videos, and audio. Consumers may be most familiar with ChatGPT or image generator DALL-E.

From Jan. 1 through Aug. 31, Adobe found that traffic to retail sites from generative AI-powered chatbots has doubled.

Direct referrals, meaning consumers clicking on a link to a retail site shared by an AI chatbot, also have increased, with rates 8 times higher than last year.

Adobe’s survey found that seven in 10 consumers who have used generative AI for shopping say it enhanced their experience. Two in five plan to use it for the holidays.

One-fifth of respondents said they use generative AI to find the best deals, followed by quickly finding specific items online (19 percent) and getting brand recommendations (15 percent).

The Latest

Swarovski lab-grown diamond Galaxy earrings
FinancialsMar 21, 2025
Swarovski Says Its Lab-Grown Diamond Sales Doubled in 2024

The company also noted record sales in the United States and a strong performance in its jewelry category.

Branko Gems
SourcingMar 21, 2025
BrankoGems To Hold Conference in Montana

The event, set for June 13-15, will feature educational presentations and guided visits to the state’s sapphire mines.

Til Death Ring by Marrow Fine
TrendsMar 21, 2025
Piece of the Week: Marrow Fine’s ‘Til Death’ Ring

After the black enamel band became a best-seller for the brand, it has now launched an enamel ring personalization program.

Facets-of-Fire-Difference-You-Can-See.jpg
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean More

Natural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.

Korman Fine Jewelry Austin store
IndependentsMar 20, 2025
Korman Fine Jewelry’s New Store Is Double the Size

The Austin, Texas, jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot store is set to open this summer.

Weekly QuizMar 21, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
JCK Rocks 2025
Events & AwardsMar 20, 2025
JCK Rocks to Feature Snoop Dogg, Jason Derulo

The rapper and singer-songwriter will perform at Tao Beach on June 8.

Conversations with Chris Ploof YouTube Video Series
TechnologyMar 20, 2025
Chris Ploof, Severine Ferrari Launch YouTube Video Series

“Conversations with Chris Ploof” covers tips for men buying wedding bands, behind-the-scenes footage of Ploof in his studio, and more.

ja-btyb-topimage.png
Brought to you by
Have a Plan for Emergencies

Emergencies can happen anytime, anywhere , and Jewelers of America has what you need to be prepared for it all.

Limelight Lab Grown Diamond store in India
Lab-GrownMar 20, 2025
Beyond Jewelry: Possibilities in the Lab-Grown Diamond Sector

As lab-grown diamond brands pop up across India, academics are researching how to grow demand outside of the jewelry industry.

Lab-grown diamond engagement ring
MajorsMar 19, 2025
Signet Jewelers to Close Stores, Cut Staff Amid Declining Sales

The moves are part of the retailer’s new turnaround plan, “Grow Brand Love,” which also includes emphasizing brand loyalty over store banners.

Zoë Kravitz in Rush Hour Collection
CollectionsMar 19, 2025
Jessica McCormack’s New Collection Elevates Office Wear

The “Rush Hour” campaign stars Zoë Kravitz in bold, wearable pieces designed to make a statement in the workplace.

Gallet Flying Officer watch
WatchesMar 19, 2025
Breitling Acquires Another Watch Brand From the 1800s

Breitling is reviving Gallet, which was founded in 1826 and is known for making watches used in the early days of long-distance travel.

Mediterranean Blue diamond
AuctionsMar 19, 2025
10-Carat Fancy Vivid Blue Diamond Expected to Sell for $20M

Dubbed the “Mediterranean Blue,” this “remarkably rare” diamond will be part of Sotheby’s May jewelry auction in Geneva.

American Gem Society Jewelry Evaluation Advisor logo
MajorsMar 19, 2025
AGS Adds New Program, Relaunches CSA

The American Gem Society now offers a Jewelry Evaluation Advisor designation as well as an updated Certified Sales Associate designation.

Beck pieces created for residency at Trove
CollectionsMar 18, 2025
Beck Debuts New Collection as Trove’s Latest Designer-in-Residence

Rebecca Zeijdel-Paz created more than 75 new pieces for the residency, which will be on display at Trove’s store in New York through April.

National Jeweler columnist Peter Smith
ColumnistsMar 18, 2025
Peter Smith: The Importance of Culture in Hiring

Smith explores why a qualified candidate might still not be right for the job.

Finks Jewelers Emmy award
Events & AwardsMar 18, 2025
Fink’s Jewelers Is Now a Regional Emmy Winner

The company and its marketing agency, Loudr, were recognized for the “Make You Dance” marketing campaign.

Citizen premiere
WatchesMar 18, 2025
Citizen Announces New Modern Luxury Watch Category

The “Series8” and “Attesa” collections will be grouped under Citizen Premier.

Borsheims Assistant IT Manager David Fager
MajorsMar 18, 2025
Borsheims Names New Assistant IT Manager

David Fager, a former systems engineer at the retailer, was promoted to the role.

The 2025 Gem Awards
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2025
Gem Awards Honor All Facets of the Industry

From retailers to designers and the media, the fine jewelry industry recognized one another’s work and looked to the future.

Eleanor H. Yeh GIA jewelry design
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2025
GIA Names Winner of Emerging Jewelry Design Talent Award

Eleanor H. Yeh is the recipient of the eighth annual Gianmaria Buccellati Foundation Award for Excellence in Jewelry Design.

 Joseph Cavalcante Tous managing director
MajorsMar 17, 2025
Tous Names U.S. Managing Director, VP

Joseph Cavalcante takes on the dual role as the Spanish jewelry brand looks to expand further into the U.S. market.

Continental Buying Group logo
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2025
CBG Expands Las Vegas Show to 3 Days

The trade show has also upgraded its venue to the Caesars Forum Conference Center.

Stafford’s Diamonds closing ad
IndependentsMar 14, 2025
Stafford’s Diamonds in Ohio to Close After 40 Years

The Dayton-based jeweler, which has been in business since 1985, was formerly known as Stafford Jewelers.

Alan Zimmer
Events & AwardsMar 14, 2025
JVC Reveals Recipient of Stanley Schechter Award

Reeds Jewelers CEO Alan Zimmer will be presented with the honor at JVC’s annual luncheon.

Sorellina’s Aries Zodiac Pendant
CollectionsMar 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Sorellina’s Aries Zodiac Pendant

The piece, celebrating birthdays from March 21 to April 19, debuted with Sorellina’s new line of astrological pendants.

Tanishq Atlanta store
MajorsMar 13, 2025
Tanishq Opens 2 New Stores in the U.S.

The Indian jewelry brand recently opened stores in Atlanta and Seattle.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy