SurveysNov 01, 2021
Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday SeasonFinancialsNov 17, 2021
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations Despite Rising Prices
Holiday shopping may have started early again this year, said The National Retail Federation.
U.S. retail sales in October were up 1.7 percent month-over-month, as per data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation.
New York—Inflation is pushing prices higher, but that didn’t spook shoppers in October as U.S. monthly retail sales surpassed expectations.
Sales were up 1.7 percent month-over-month in October to $638.2 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while year-over-year sales were up 16 percent.
The results exceeded analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 1.5 percent.
September sales were stronger than previously thought, up 0.8 percent month-over-month, rather than the previous 0.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets underway,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices.”
Shay noted a list of challenges facing retailers, including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and the pending vaccine mandate, but applauded retailers for striving to safely serve customers in stores and online.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly in the wake of supply constraints.
“Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books,” said Shay.
Halloween spending and early holiday shopping may have boosted numbers, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, but most of the shopping will still be done in November and December.
“The big question, obviously, is whether much of the planned holiday buying is being done early and December sales will suffer, or if this confidence and buying power will sustain strong growth throughout the entire season,” said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at retail technology company Aptos.
“Retailers will need to be very strategic with their messaging, promotions and offers if they hope to reduce the risk of a late-season slowdown. Carefully timed and targeted offers must be combined with incentives and discounts on alternatives to out-of-stock items and flexible omnichannel strategies that evolve as COVID case counts fluctuate. This will give retailers the best chance to sustain strong growth into the new year.”
While concerns about high prices have been weighing on consumer sentiment, it hasn’t hindered spending, NRF’s Kleinhenz noted.
How customers said they felt and their shopping behaviors didn’t quite match up.
Consumer confidence was on a three-month consecutive decline until a rebound in October, despite analyst expectations of another decline.
Concerns about the Delta variant, which had weighed on sentiment, have eased somewhat, though inflation remains high.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in October and more than 6 percent year-over-year, marking the highest jump since 1991.
Gas prices surged, up nearly 4 percent for the month and 47 percent year-over-year.
Despite rising costs due to inflation and low consumer sentiment, consumers have kept spending, due in part to a high level of savings following the series of payments approved by Congress.
In the third quarter, personal savings totaled $1.6 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with a personal saving rate of nearly 9 percent.
Though not as high as the record 34 percent seen in April 2020, the personal saving rate is still at a high level compared with pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking savings rate indicates that people are spending again rather than continuing to save, and economist Maria Solovieva expects some of that to be spent this holiday season, as per her research at TD Economics.
“Our forecast assumes that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the $2.7 trillion in excess saving accumulated to-date will be spent by the end of 2023,” wrote Solovieva.
The NRF has forecasted a strong holiday season, due to high savings and progress in the fight against COVID-19.
However, a rise in COVID-19 infections could put the brakes on holiday spending, warned NRF’s Kleinhenz.
The NRF also calculates retail sales, excluding auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants.
Its calculations show October retail sales were up 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and up 11 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
For the first ten months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with its revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
October sales were up in all but two categories— clothing and clothing accessory stores and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at electronics and appliance stores and sporting goods stores.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Financials
The Latest
IndependentsAug 20, 2025
Bellman’s Jewelers Opens Second Store After COO's TikTok Takes OffThe New Hampshire-based store has expanded to Boston, propelled by the success of Alex Bellman’s TikTok page, “The Truthful Jeweler.”
CrimeAug 20, 2025
Another CA Jewelry Store Rammed With Car, RobbedThe latest incident happened Monday at a store in Oakland, California, continuing a pattern JSA first warned about last month.
WatchesAug 20, 2025
Oris Launches Watch Benefiting NYC Harbor Oyster RestorationThe new aqua green New York Harbor Limited Edition II is the watchmaker’s second collaboration with the Billion Oyster Project.
Brought to you by
Rallying Call for the Jewelry Industry on Tariffs and Other Key IssuesJewelers of America is leading the charge to protect the industry amidst rising economic threats.
Events & AwardsAug 20, 2025
Take the Jewelers for Children ‘Trinity of Purpose’ ChallengeParticipants who attend any three Rings of Strength events will be awarded a special medal.
Weekly QuizAug 15, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingAug 19, 2025
Dubai’s Jemora Group Buys Diamond Miner LucapaThe investment company, founded by Dev Shetty, has acquired the struggling miner and its assets, including the Lulo mine in Angola.
ColumnistsAug 19, 2025
Peter Smith: The Arrival Fallacy and Jewelry RetailSmith shares wisdom he gleaned from a podcast he was listening to one morning while being walked by his dog, a Malshi named Sophie.
Brought to you by
Taking the Moment Head On: How Rio Grande Champions the Present & Future of Fine JewelryAs a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.
CrimeAug 19, 2025
Customs Seizes 7,300 Pairs of Fake ‘Alhambra’ EarringsThe counterfeit Van Cleef & Arpels jewels would have been worth more than $30 million if genuine.
MajorsAug 19, 2025
MJSA Apprenticeship Program Is Nationally RecognizedThe MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program received the Registered Apprenticeship Program designation by the U.S. Department of Labor.
WatchesAug 19, 2025
Casio America Names New Timepiece Division ManagerCasio executive and watch enthusiast Masaki Obu is the new general manager of its U.S. timepiece division.
MajorsAug 18, 2025
Verragio’s Michael Barabash, a ‘Kind Soul,’ Dies at 58Barabash, Verragio’s client relations representative, was a vital member of the team and is remembered as being warm and full of life.
CollectionsAug 18, 2025
John Hardy’s New ‘Dot’ Collection Is on PointOriginally introduced in 1992, the “Dot” collection is back with a capsule featuring five archival designs and three new creations.
Events & AwardsAug 18, 2025
IJO Announces 2025 Vendor of the YearAllison-Kaufman has received the honor for the fourth year in a row.
EditorsAug 15, 2025
Piece of the Week: Etho Maria’s Showgirl-Approved Ruby Drop Earrings Taylor Swift dons the vibrant pair in new promotional imagery for her upcoming album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” set to release in October.
WatchesAug 15, 2025
Audemars Piguet Acquires Majority Stake in ManufacturerIts investment in micromechanics expert Inhotec will preserve skills essential to the watchmaking industry as a whole, said the company.
MajorsAug 15, 2025
Rio Grande Names New Marketing DirectorNicolette Bianchi joins the wholesale provider with more than 15 years of cross-industry experience in marketing and product development.
CollectionsAug 14, 2025
In Midst of ‘Sardine Girl Summer,’ Pippa Small Looks to ‘Flounder Fall’Her new “Ocean” collection was inspired by Myanmar’s traditional articulated fish jewelry, with depictions of flounder, catfish, and more.
MajorsAug 14, 2025
Casio America Names New CEOLongtime Casio executive Yusuke Suzuki is the new president and CEO of Casio’s U.S. subsidiary.
SourcingAug 14, 2025
West Coast Orgs to Host Trading Event, Mixer in LAThe full-day sourcing and networking event, slated for Aug. 18, will be followed by the fifth annual Mega Mixer Summer Soirée.
TrendsAug 13, 2025
Cristiano Ronaldo Proposes With Gigantic Oval-Cut DiamondModel Georgina Rodríguez received a rock of an engagement ring, with her diamond estimated to be 35 carats, experts say.
SourcingAug 13, 2025
ICA Names 2025 Board of DirectorsThe board elected 9 new directors at its recent ICA Congress in Brazil.
TrendsAug 13, 2025
Colorado Jeweler, Whiskey Maker Collab on Ring GiveawayThree winners will receive a custom ring from Honest Hands Ring Co. inlaid with a piece of history from Denver-based distillery Stranahan’s.
SurveysAug 13, 2025
These Are The 25 Hottest Retailers, Says NRFJD Sports and Wawa were among the fastest-growing retail companies in the U.S. last year.
SourcingAug 13, 2025
Columbia Gem House Launches Winza Sapphires, RubiesThe new inventory, all untreated, features vibrant hues and unique bicolor combinations.
SourcingAug 12, 2025
Gemfields Sells Fabergé for $50MAcquired by a tech investor, the historic brand will continue to focus on jewelry, accessories, and timepieces.
Policies & IssuesAug 12, 2025
Higher Tariff on Chinese Imports Paused for 90 Days, Trump SaysPresident Donald Trump issued an executive order extending the pause on higher tariffs to November as negotiations with China continue.
