SurveysNov 01, 2021
Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday SeasonFinancialsNov 17, 2021
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations Despite Rising Prices
Holiday shopping may have started early again this year, said The National Retail Federation.
U.S. retail sales in October were up 1.7 percent month-over-month, as per data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation.
New York—Inflation is pushing prices higher, but that didn’t spook shoppers in October as U.S. monthly retail sales surpassed expectations.
Sales were up 1.7 percent month-over-month in October to $638.2 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while year-over-year sales were up 16 percent.
The results exceeded analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 1.5 percent.
September sales were stronger than previously thought, up 0.8 percent month-over-month, rather than the previous 0.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets underway,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices.”
Shay noted a list of challenges facing retailers, including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and the pending vaccine mandate, but applauded retailers for striving to safely serve customers in stores and online.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly in the wake of supply constraints.
“Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books,” said Shay.
Halloween spending and early holiday shopping may have boosted numbers, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, but most of the shopping will still be done in November and December.
“The big question, obviously, is whether much of the planned holiday buying is being done early and December sales will suffer, or if this confidence and buying power will sustain strong growth throughout the entire season,” said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at retail technology company Aptos.
“Retailers will need to be very strategic with their messaging, promotions and offers if they hope to reduce the risk of a late-season slowdown. Carefully timed and targeted offers must be combined with incentives and discounts on alternatives to out-of-stock items and flexible omnichannel strategies that evolve as COVID case counts fluctuate. This will give retailers the best chance to sustain strong growth into the new year.”
While concerns about high prices have been weighing on consumer sentiment, it hasn’t hindered spending, NRF’s Kleinhenz noted.
How customers said they felt and their shopping behaviors didn’t quite match up.
Consumer confidence was on a three-month consecutive decline until a rebound in October, despite analyst expectations of another decline.
Concerns about the Delta variant, which had weighed on sentiment, have eased somewhat, though inflation remains high.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in October and more than 6 percent year-over-year, marking the highest jump since 1991.
Gas prices surged, up nearly 4 percent for the month and 47 percent year-over-year.
Despite rising costs due to inflation and low consumer sentiment, consumers have kept spending, due in part to a high level of savings following the series of payments approved by Congress.
In the third quarter, personal savings totaled $1.6 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with a personal saving rate of nearly 9 percent.
Though not as high as the record 34 percent seen in April 2020, the personal saving rate is still at a high level compared with pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking savings rate indicates that people are spending again rather than continuing to save, and economist Maria Solovieva expects some of that to be spent this holiday season, as per her research at TD Economics.
“Our forecast assumes that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the $2.7 trillion in excess saving accumulated to-date will be spent by the end of 2023,” wrote Solovieva.
The NRF has forecasted a strong holiday season, due to high savings and progress in the fight against COVID-19.
However, a rise in COVID-19 infections could put the brakes on holiday spending, warned NRF’s Kleinhenz.
The NRF also calculates retail sales, excluding auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants.
Its calculations show October retail sales were up 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and up 11 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
For the first ten months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with its revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
October sales were up in all but two categories— clothing and clothing accessory stores and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at electronics and appliance stores and sporting goods stores.
More on Financials
The Latest
CollectionsNov 19, 2025
Larkspur & Hawk Celebrates 25 Years With Helena Bonham Carter CampaignThe British actress and her daughter modeled pieces from the brand’s new “Palette” capsule for its “Once Upon a Time” holiday campaign.
TechnologyNov 19, 2025
Google Has a New Form for Reporting ‘Review Bombing’ Attacks Plus, the tech giant shares the steps retailers should take if they believe they’re a victim of a review extortion scam.
IndependentsNov 19, 2025
Houston Jeweler Keith Shaftel Retires, Next Generation Steps In Danny and Gaby Shaftel are now Shaftel Diamonds’ CEO and chief operating officer, respectively.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
TrendsNov 19, 2025
Midas Chain Releases 2025 Holiday Style GuideThe jewelry manufacturer’s seasonal offering features its new “Melodie” bangles, as well as mini stud earrings and layering pieces.
Weekly QuizNov 13, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
NYC Jewelry Week 2025: 12 Must-See EventsWith more than 140 activations taking place in New York City now through Nov. 23, these 12 events are can’t-miss moments.
MajorsNov 18, 2025
Lugano Diamonds Files for Bankruptcy, Looking for BuyerThe Chapter 11 filing follows the resignation of CEO Moti Ferder, who stepped down after an investigation into the company’s finances.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
A Giant, Bejeweled Moldy Berry Is on Display in LAThe artwork is part of an exhibition featuring works by Kathleen Ryan, an artist known for her gemstone-studded rotting fruit sculptures.
SourcingNov 18, 2025
Another Diamond Company CEO Steps DownMark Wall, president and CEO of Canadian mining company Mountain Province Diamonds, will vacate his position next month.
CrimeNov 17, 2025
Police Searching for 2 Suspects in Murder of Father, Son Jewelers Faustino Alamo Dominguez and his son, 25-year-old Luis Angel Alamo, were gunned down following an armed robbery at their jewelry store.
GradingNov 17, 2025
IGI Announces New President of North AmericaTiffany & Co. veteran Jeffrey Bennett has stepped into the role.
MajorsNov 17, 2025
Look Inside Robbins Brothers Fine Jewelers’ New Pasadena FlagshipThe showroom is located in a historic 1920s building in the Playhouse District.
Policies & IssuesNov 14, 2025
U.S., Switzerland Reach Deal That Drops Tariff to 15%The Swiss government announced the deal, which cuts the tax on Swiss imports by more than half, on social media Friday morning.
AuctionsNov 14, 2025
Napoleon’s Diamond Brooch Blows Away Auction Estimates A buyer paid $4.4 million for the piece, which Napoleon wore on his hat for special occasions and left behind when he fled Waterloo.
CollectionsNov 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Silvia Furmanovich’s ‘Butterflies in Flight’ Jewelry BoxFurmanovich designed the box to hold Mellerio’s “Color Queen,” a high jewelry collection consisting of 10 rings.
Events & AwardsNov 14, 2025
JCK Names New Event DirectorJennifer Hopf, who has been with JCK since 2022, will lead the execution of the long-running jewelry trade show.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
127-Year-Old New Orleans Jeweler to CloseAdler’s Jewelry is set to close its two stores as 82-year-old owner Coleman E. Adler II retires.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
Green Lake Jewelry Works to Move to New Seattle StudioFounder Jim Tuttle shared how a dedication to craftsmanship and meaningful custom jewelry fueled the retailer’s double-digit growth.
MajorsNov 13, 2025
Vahan Jewelry Founder Leon ‘Sacha’ Der Calousdian Dies at 85The third-generation jeweler is remembered as a passionate creative with a love of art, traveling and sailboat racing.
CrimeNov 12, 2025
Father, Son Jewelers in Chicago Victims in Double Homicide JSA and Cook County Crime Stoppers are both offering rewards for information leading to the arrest of the suspect or suspects involved.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
‘Mellon Blue’ Diamond Sells for $7M Less Than It Did a Decade AgoA buyer paid $25.6 million for the diamond at Christie’s on Tuesday. In 2014, Sotheby’s sold the same stone for $32.6 million.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
Historic Rolex Oyster Fetches $1.7M at Sotheby’sMercedes Gleitze famously wore the watch in her 1927 swim across the English Channel, a pivotal credibility moment for the watchmaker.
GradingNov 12, 2025
It’s Time: GIA’s Express Holiday Service Is Back GIA is offering next-day services for natural, colorless diamonds submitted to its labs in New York and Carlsbad.
MajorsNov 10, 2025
Jewelers Focus on Love, Joy In 2025 Holiday Campaigns Tiffany & Co., David Yurman, and Pandora have launched holiday campaigns depicting their jewelry as symbols of affection and happiness.
SurveysNov 10, 2025
5 Things Retailers Should Know About Holiday Shoppers This YearThe National Retail Federation is bullish on the holidays, forecasting retail sales to exceed $1 trillion this year.
AuctionsNov 10, 2025
300+ Colored Diamonds Up for Auction at Christie’sLate collector Eddy Elzas assembled “The Rainbow Collection,” which is offered as a single lot and estimated to fetch up to $3 million.
