SurveysNov 01, 2021
Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday SeasonFinancialsNov 17, 2021
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations Despite Rising Prices
Holiday shopping may have started early again this year, said The National Retail Federation.
U.S. retail sales in October were up 1.7 percent month-over-month, as per data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation.
New York—Inflation is pushing prices higher, but that didn’t spook shoppers in October as U.S. monthly retail sales surpassed expectations.
Sales were up 1.7 percent month-over-month in October to $638.2 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while year-over-year sales were up 16 percent.
The results exceeded analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 1.5 percent.
September sales were stronger than previously thought, up 0.8 percent month-over-month, rather than the previous 0.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets underway,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices.”
Shay noted a list of challenges facing retailers, including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and the pending vaccine mandate, but applauded retailers for striving to safely serve customers in stores and online.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly in the wake of supply constraints.
“Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books,” said Shay.
Halloween spending and early holiday shopping may have boosted numbers, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, but most of the shopping will still be done in November and December.
“The big question, obviously, is whether much of the planned holiday buying is being done early and December sales will suffer, or if this confidence and buying power will sustain strong growth throughout the entire season,” said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at retail technology company Aptos.
“Retailers will need to be very strategic with their messaging, promotions and offers if they hope to reduce the risk of a late-season slowdown. Carefully timed and targeted offers must be combined with incentives and discounts on alternatives to out-of-stock items and flexible omnichannel strategies that evolve as COVID case counts fluctuate. This will give retailers the best chance to sustain strong growth into the new year.”
While concerns about high prices have been weighing on consumer sentiment, it hasn’t hindered spending, NRF’s Kleinhenz noted.
How customers said they felt and their shopping behaviors didn’t quite match up.
Consumer confidence was on a three-month consecutive decline until a rebound in October, despite analyst expectations of another decline.
Concerns about the Delta variant, which had weighed on sentiment, have eased somewhat, though inflation remains high.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in October and more than 6 percent year-over-year, marking the highest jump since 1991.
Gas prices surged, up nearly 4 percent for the month and 47 percent year-over-year.
Despite rising costs due to inflation and low consumer sentiment, consumers have kept spending, due in part to a high level of savings following the series of payments approved by Congress.
In the third quarter, personal savings totaled $1.6 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with a personal saving rate of nearly 9 percent.
Though not as high as the record 34 percent seen in April 2020, the personal saving rate is still at a high level compared with pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking savings rate indicates that people are spending again rather than continuing to save, and economist Maria Solovieva expects some of that to be spent this holiday season, as per her research at TD Economics.
“Our forecast assumes that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the $2.7 trillion in excess saving accumulated to-date will be spent by the end of 2023,” wrote Solovieva.
The NRF has forecasted a strong holiday season, due to high savings and progress in the fight against COVID-19.
However, a rise in COVID-19 infections could put the brakes on holiday spending, warned NRF’s Kleinhenz.
The NRF also calculates retail sales, excluding auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants.
Its calculations show October retail sales were up 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and up 11 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
For the first ten months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with its revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
October sales were up in all but two categories— clothing and clothing accessory stores and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at electronics and appliance stores and sporting goods stores.
More on Financials
The Latest
CrimeDec 24, 2025
LA Jewelry District Couple Pleads Guilty to Hiding Millions from IRSThe couple pleaded guilty to concealing at least $127 million in cash transactions at its precious metals businesses.
SurveysDec 24, 2025
Consumer Confidence Falls Again in DecemberConsumers shared concerns about prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and politics in the survey’s write-in response section.
AuctionsDec 24, 2025
Bonhams to Open New U.S. Flagship in NYCIn February 2026, the auction house will move its headquarters to the former Steinway Hall, a neoclassical landmark on Billionaires’ Row.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
Events & AwardsDec 24, 2025
NYC Jewelry, Antique, & Object Show Announces Winter EventThe new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.
Weekly QuizDec 23, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingDec 23, 2025
Mining Titan Brian Gilbertson Dies at 82The former BHP Billiton leader and Gemfields chairman is remembered for his influential leadership throughout his 50-year mining career.
Events & AwardsDec 23, 2025
Bulgari Reimagines Costume Designers Guild AwardThe LVMH-owned brand has partnered with the costume design union to revamp its award for 2026.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
MajorsDec 23, 2025
Kering to Acquire Stake in Raselli Franco GroupThe luxury titan inked a deal to acquire an initial minority stake in the jewelry manufacturer with a pathway to full ownership by 2032.
MajorsDec 23, 2025
For Future Reference Vintage Enters Bloomingdale’sThe company’s curation of unsigned vintage and estate jewelry debuted at the Bloomingdale’s in Costa Mesa, California.
CrimeDec 22, 2025
Customs Seizes Hundreds of Fake Rolex, Cartier WatchesIn the recent multi-shipment seizure, CBP also found counterfeit Audemars Piguet, Moncler, and Chrome Hearts items.
EditorsDec 22, 2025
How Helzberg Is Reimagining Its StoresHelzberg’s Chief Retail Officer Mitch Maggart shared details about its tests of a new store concept rooted in an elevated luxury experience.
Recorded WebinarsDec 22, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: Looking Back on an Eventful Year Jewelers of America execs and National Jeweler editors discuss tariffs, the sky-high gold price, and the engagement that broke the internet.
MajorsDec 19, 2025
MadaLuxe Group Acquires Ippolita The luxury goods company said founder Ippolita Rostagno will remain at the brand’s helm.
MajorsDec 19, 2025
LVMH Names New Bulgari CEOLaura Burdese, who joined the Italian luxury brand in 2022, will take on the role in July.
EditorsDec 19, 2025
2025 Jewelry Superlatives: A Yearbook-Style Year in Review The National Jeweler editors revisit the most noteworthy industry happenings and design trends from 2025.
AuctionsDec 19, 2025
Jean Schlumberger’s ‘African Cat’ Is Purr-Fection Need a gift for the cat lover who has everything? Look no further than our latest Piece of the Week.
AuctionsDec 18, 2025
Audemars Piguet Reclaims Historic Pocket Watch at AuctionIt purchased the “Grosse Pièce,” an ultra-complicated Audemars Piguet pocket watch from the ‘20s, for a record-breaking price at Sotheby’s.
Lab-GrownDec 18, 2025
Kira Jewels Debuts Custom Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry ServiceThe lab-grown diamond grower now offers custom engagement and fashion jewelry through its Kira Custom Lab Jewelry service.
EditorsDec 18, 2025
Terry Chandler Looks Back on 40 Years of Opportunity, Change, and FriendsChandler got his start at Michelson Jewelers and has served as DCA president and CEO since 2001. He will retire at the end of the month.
WatchesDec 18, 2025
Bob’s Watches to Open Store in New York’s JFK AirportThe boutique is slated to open this week inside Terminal 8, offering pre-owned Rolex watches and more to international travelers.
Supplier BulletinDec 18, 2025
Cell Jammers Are Targeting Your Business. Here's How to Beat ThemSponsored by Digital Monitoring Products
CrimeDec 17, 2025
Man Pleads Not Guilty to Swallowing Fabergé PendantThe special-edition egg pendant ingested in a New Zealand jewelry store was recovered after a six-day wait.
EditorsDec 17, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: The Best Piece of the Week PicksAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco plays favorites with Piece of the Week, selecting a standout piece of jewelry from each month of 2025.
CollectionsDec 17, 2025
Lucy Hale Stars in Jacquie Aiche’s Holiday CampaignThe “Love and Desire” campaign is inspired by the magic that follows when one’s heart leads the way, said the brand.
GradingDec 17, 2025
SSEF Announces 2025 Scholarship WinnersTwo awardees will receive free tuition for an educational course at the Swiss lab, with flights and lodging included.
MajorsDec 16, 2025
Pandora’s New CEO Will Step Up EarlyBerta de Pablos-Barbier will replace Alexander Lacik at the start of January, two months earlier than expected.
