SurveysNov 01, 2021
Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday SeasonFinancialsNov 17, 2021
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations Despite Rising Prices
Holiday shopping may have started early again this year, said The National Retail Federation.
U.S. retail sales in October were up 1.7 percent month-over-month, as per data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation.
New York—Inflation is pushing prices higher, but that didn’t spook shoppers in October as U.S. monthly retail sales surpassed expectations.
Sales were up 1.7 percent month-over-month in October to $638.2 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while year-over-year sales were up 16 percent.
The results exceeded analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 1.5 percent.
September sales were stronger than previously thought, up 0.8 percent month-over-month, rather than the previous 0.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets underway,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices.”
Shay noted a list of challenges facing retailers, including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and the pending vaccine mandate, but applauded retailers for striving to safely serve customers in stores and online.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly in the wake of supply constraints.
“Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books,” said Shay.
Halloween spending and early holiday shopping may have boosted numbers, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, but most of the shopping will still be done in November and December.
“The big question, obviously, is whether much of the planned holiday buying is being done early and December sales will suffer, or if this confidence and buying power will sustain strong growth throughout the entire season,” said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at retail technology company Aptos.
“Retailers will need to be very strategic with their messaging, promotions and offers if they hope to reduce the risk of a late-season slowdown. Carefully timed and targeted offers must be combined with incentives and discounts on alternatives to out-of-stock items and flexible omnichannel strategies that evolve as COVID case counts fluctuate. This will give retailers the best chance to sustain strong growth into the new year.”
While concerns about high prices have been weighing on consumer sentiment, it hasn’t hindered spending, NRF’s Kleinhenz noted.
How customers said they felt and their shopping behaviors didn’t quite match up.
Consumer confidence was on a three-month consecutive decline until a rebound in October, despite analyst expectations of another decline.
Concerns about the Delta variant, which had weighed on sentiment, have eased somewhat, though inflation remains high.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in October and more than 6 percent year-over-year, marking the highest jump since 1991.
Gas prices surged, up nearly 4 percent for the month and 47 percent year-over-year.
Despite rising costs due to inflation and low consumer sentiment, consumers have kept spending, due in part to a high level of savings following the series of payments approved by Congress.
In the third quarter, personal savings totaled $1.6 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with a personal saving rate of nearly 9 percent.
Though not as high as the record 34 percent seen in April 2020, the personal saving rate is still at a high level compared with pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking savings rate indicates that people are spending again rather than continuing to save, and economist Maria Solovieva expects some of that to be spent this holiday season, as per her research at TD Economics.
“Our forecast assumes that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the $2.7 trillion in excess saving accumulated to-date will be spent by the end of 2023,” wrote Solovieva.
The NRF has forecasted a strong holiday season, due to high savings and progress in the fight against COVID-19.
However, a rise in COVID-19 infections could put the brakes on holiday spending, warned NRF’s Kleinhenz.
The NRF also calculates retail sales, excluding auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants.
Its calculations show October retail sales were up 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and up 11 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
For the first ten months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with its revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
October sales were up in all but two categories— clothing and clothing accessory stores and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at electronics and appliance stores and sporting goods stores.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Financials
The Latest
TrendsFeb 11, 2026
Halle Berry’s Retro Engagement Ring Is a Sapphire-Set StunnerSourced by For Future Reference Vintage, the yellow gold ring has a round center stone surrounded by step-cut sapphires.
MajorsFeb 11, 2026
Francesca’s Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy AgainThe clothing and accessories chain announced last month it would be closing all of its stores.
CollectionsFeb 11, 2026
Zales Turns Sweethearts Into Jewelry for Valentine’s Day CollectionThe “Zales x Sweethearts” collection features three mystery heart charms engraved with classic sayings seen on the Valentine’s Day candies.
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench JewelersLaunched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.
TechnologyFeb 11, 2026
Gemvision Symposium 2026 Slated for AprilThe event will include panel discussions, hands-on demonstrations of new digital manufacturing tools, and a jewelry design contest.
Weekly QuizFeb 05, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsFeb 11, 2026
TJS Announces Roundtable, Launches New AppRegistration is now open for The Jewelry Symposium, set to take place in Detroit from May 16-19.
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
At Meeting in South Africa, Support for Natural Diamonds Picks Up Steam Namibia has formally signed the Luanda Accord, while two key industry organizations pledged to join the Natural Diamond Council.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
TrendsFeb 10, 2026
Bad Bunny Wears Football-Shaped ‘Desert Diamond’ for Halftime PerformanceLady Gaga, Cardi B, and Karol G also went with diamond jewelry for Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show honoring Puerto Rico.
SurveysFeb 10, 2026
Shoppers to Spend Big on Jewelry This Valentine’s Day, Says NRFJewelry is expected to be the No. 1 gift this year in terms of dollars spent.
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
AGTA To Debut ‘Stuller Color of the Year’ Spectrum Awards CategoryThe new category asks entrants for “exceptional” interpretations of the supplier’s 2026 color of the year, which is “Signature Red.”
Policies & IssuesFeb 09, 2026
U.S., India Trade Deal One Step Closer to Being FinalizedThe White House issued an official statement on the deal, which will eliminate tariffs on loose natural diamonds and gemstones from India.
Events & AwardsFeb 09, 2026
JA Now Accepting Entries for 2026 CASE AwardsEntries for the jewelry design competition will be accepted through March 20.
IndependentsFeb 09, 2026
James Free Jewelers Unveils Revamped FlagshipThe Ohio jeweler’s new layout features a curated collection of brand boutiques to promote storytelling and host in-store events.
TrendsFeb 09, 2026
These 14 Jewels Will Melt Your Heart This Valentine’s DayFrom heart motifs to pink pearls, Valentine’s Day is filled with jewelry imbued with love.
CrimeFeb 06, 2026
Florida Man Sentenced After Selling Fake Native American Jewelry for a Decade Prosecutors say the man attended arts and craft fairs claiming he was a third-generation jeweler who was a member of the Pueblo tribe.
TrendsFeb 06, 2026
Margot Robbie, Jacob Elordi Wear Matching Cece Jewellery Signet RingsOur Piece of the Week picks are these bespoke rings the “Wuthering Heights” stars have been spotted wearing during the film’s press tour.
MajorsFeb 05, 2026
Pandora to Begin Selling Platinum-Plated JewelryThe introduction of platinum plating will reduce its reliance on silver amid volatile price swings, said Pandora.
SourcingFeb 05, 2026
De Beers Lowers Production Guidance for 2026, Anglo Mulls Another WritedownIt would be the third impairment charge in three years on De Beers Group, which continues to grapple with a “challenging” diamond market.
IndependentsFeb 05, 2026
Borsheims to Undergo Massive Renovation in the Spring The Omaha jewelry store’s multi-million-dollar renovation is scheduled to begin in mid-May and take about six months.
CollectionsFeb 05, 2026
Marco Bicego’s Amethyst Collection Travels to a Purple ParadiseThe “Paradise Amethyst” collection focuses on amethyst, pink tourmaline, garnet, and 18-karat yellow gold beads.
FinancialsFeb 05, 2026
Watches of Switzerland Reports Strong Holiday Results in Q3The retailer credited its Roberto Coin campaign, in part, for boosting its North America sales.
ColumnistsFeb 04, 2026
January Jewelry Sales: More Dollars Spent, Fewer Units Sold Sherry Smith unpacks independent retailers’ January performance and gives tips for navigating the slow-growth year ahead.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
What Designers Should Know About Saks Global’s BankruptcyFrom how to get an invoice paid to getting merchandise returned, JVC’s Sara Yood answers some complex questions.
TrendsFeb 04, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: February Birthstone BlissAmethyst, the birthstone for February, is a gemstone to watch this year with its rich purple hue and affordable price point.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
Marco Bicego Names New Global Marketing DirectorThe Italian jewelry company appointed Matteo Cuelli to the newly created role.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
Frederick Goldman Updates Leadership TeamThe manufacturer said the changes are designed to improve speed, reliability, innovation, and service.
