SurveysNov 01, 2021
Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday SeasonFinancialsNov 17, 2021
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations Despite Rising Prices
Holiday shopping may have started early again this year, said The National Retail Federation.
U.S. retail sales in October were up 1.7 percent month-over-month, as per data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation.
New York—Inflation is pushing prices higher, but that didn’t spook shoppers in October as U.S. monthly retail sales surpassed expectations.
Sales were up 1.7 percent month-over-month in October to $638.2 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while year-over-year sales were up 16 percent.
The results exceeded analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 1.5 percent.
September sales were stronger than previously thought, up 0.8 percent month-over-month, rather than the previous 0.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets underway,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices.”
Shay noted a list of challenges facing retailers, including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and the pending vaccine mandate, but applauded retailers for striving to safely serve customers in stores and online.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly in the wake of supply constraints.
“Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books,” said Shay.
Halloween spending and early holiday shopping may have boosted numbers, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, but most of the shopping will still be done in November and December.
“The big question, obviously, is whether much of the planned holiday buying is being done early and December sales will suffer, or if this confidence and buying power will sustain strong growth throughout the entire season,” said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at retail technology company Aptos.
“Retailers will need to be very strategic with their messaging, promotions and offers if they hope to reduce the risk of a late-season slowdown. Carefully timed and targeted offers must be combined with incentives and discounts on alternatives to out-of-stock items and flexible omnichannel strategies that evolve as COVID case counts fluctuate. This will give retailers the best chance to sustain strong growth into the new year.”
While concerns about high prices have been weighing on consumer sentiment, it hasn’t hindered spending, NRF’s Kleinhenz noted.
How customers said they felt and their shopping behaviors didn’t quite match up.
Consumer confidence was on a three-month consecutive decline until a rebound in October, despite analyst expectations of another decline.
Concerns about the Delta variant, which had weighed on sentiment, have eased somewhat, though inflation remains high.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in October and more than 6 percent year-over-year, marking the highest jump since 1991.
Gas prices surged, up nearly 4 percent for the month and 47 percent year-over-year.
Despite rising costs due to inflation and low consumer sentiment, consumers have kept spending, due in part to a high level of savings following the series of payments approved by Congress.
In the third quarter, personal savings totaled $1.6 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with a personal saving rate of nearly 9 percent.
Though not as high as the record 34 percent seen in April 2020, the personal saving rate is still at a high level compared with pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking savings rate indicates that people are spending again rather than continuing to save, and economist Maria Solovieva expects some of that to be spent this holiday season, as per her research at TD Economics.
“Our forecast assumes that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the $2.7 trillion in excess saving accumulated to-date will be spent by the end of 2023,” wrote Solovieva.
The NRF has forecasted a strong holiday season, due to high savings and progress in the fight against COVID-19.
However, a rise in COVID-19 infections could put the brakes on holiday spending, warned NRF’s Kleinhenz.
The NRF also calculates retail sales, excluding auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants.
Its calculations show October retail sales were up 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and up 11 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
For the first ten months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with its revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
October sales were up in all but two categories— clothing and clothing accessory stores and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at electronics and appliance stores and sporting goods stores.
More on Financials
The Latest
WatchesOct 04, 2024
Watches of Switzerland Clocks Another Acquisition—HodinkeeThe company said Benjamin Clymer will return to his role as head of the watch news website, which will maintain editorial independence.
MajorsOct 04, 2024
Hearts On Fire Names Gabrielle Grazi VP of Sales, North AmericaThe industry veteran is also the president-elect of the Women’s Jewelry Association.
CollectionsOct 04, 2024
Piece of the Week: Ray Griffiths’ ‘Double Headed Snake’ RingSlither into spooky season with this scary snake ring that boasts two heads with tsavorite eyes.
Brought to you by
Enhance Your Expertise with IGI’s In-Person Courses in NYCThis fall, sharpen your skills in jewelry grading, quality control and diamond assessment.
Policies & IssuesOct 03, 2024
RJO, CERF+ Join Those Offering Hurricane Helene Relief to Affected JewelersPlus, how to apply for emergency funds and donate to recovery efforts.
Weekly QuizOct 03, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingOct 03, 2024
How India Became the World’s Second-Largest Market for Diamond Jewelry A strong economy, a growing middle class with an affinity for brands, and rapid expansion of organized retail have fueled the market’s rise.
CrimeOct 03, 2024
Man Who Shared Spoils of $2.7M Smash-and-Grab on Social Media Pleads Guilty to Robbery ChargeLadell Tharpe, 39, took part in a 2022 jewelry store robbery and then posted pictures of cash on Instagram with the text “Robbery Gang.”
Brought to you by
Why You Can't Miss JA New York This FallDon't miss this one-stop-shop in October, curated with buyers’ needs in mind.
MajorsOct 03, 2024
JA Appoints New Board DirectorThe trade organization welcomed Sheryl Jones to its board of directors for a three-year term.
MajorsOct 03, 2024
Pandora Names 3rd CMO in Past 5 YearsNew Chief Marketing Officer Berta de Pablos-Barbier has worked for LVMH’s champagne brands and Kering-owned Boucheron.
TrendsOct 03, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: October’s ArrivalTransition to fall with this month’s birthstones of opal and tourmaline.
AuctionsOct 03, 2024
Dame Shirley Bassey’s Diamonds Are Ready for Their EncoreSotheby’s will auction jewelry belonging to the “Diamonds Are Forever” singer Oct. 10 in Paris.
Lab-GrownOct 02, 2024
Lightbox Continues as a Brand, While Supplies Last?The De Beers-owned lab-grown diamond company is rebranding and creating new collections, though its long-term future remains unclear.
CollectionsOct 02, 2024
Brilliant Earth Debuts Jane Goodall CollectionThe collection is part of the retailer’s new “Rethink Everything You Know About Diamonds” campaign.
AuctionsOct 02, 2024
The GOAT’s Stash: Watches Owned by Tom Brady Going Up for Auction The sale includes the custom-made, diamond-set Audemars Piguet watch the QB wore for Netflix’s “The Roast of Tom Brady.”
Events & AwardsOct 02, 2024
AJA’s Design Competition Now Accepting EntriesThe Armenian Jewellers Association is hosting its design competition for the second year, with winners showcasing at GemGenève in May 2025.
MajorsOct 01, 2024
Signet Jewelers CEO Gina Drosos to RetireThe jewelry retailer has named her successor and also will expand the role of Chief Financial Officer Joan Hilson.
MajorsOct 01, 2024
Kay Jewelers to Revamp BrandThe Signet Jewelers-owned banner has a new campaign and plans for store redesigns.
CollectionsOct 01, 2024
JV Insardi Inspires Curiosity in New CollectionCreative Director Jen Insardi brings a new take on classic gold bead designs to her “Solar” collection.
IndependentsOct 01, 2024
Oklahoma Jewelers Association Grants Lifetime Achievement AwardThe recipient, Glenn Douglass, also was inducted into the OJA Hall of Fame.
MajorsOct 01, 2024
Stuller Celebrates Long-Serving EmployeesThe manufacturer recognized several team members at its 2024 Milestone Anniversary Banquet.
AuctionsSep 30, 2024
Oscar Heyman Jewels, Paraíba Pieces Shine at Bonhams Auction The single-owner collection sale, which took place in New York last week, achieved $4.8 million, with almost every lot finding a buyer.
TrendsSep 30, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: Dainty DelightsWhile statement pieces always shine, it’s time for everyday staples to be the star of the show.
Policies & IssuesSep 30, 2024
JA Fly-In to DC Focuses on Russian Diamonds, Retail CrimeJewelers of America leadership and members recently headed to D.C. to share the industry’s top concerns with lawmakers.
Recorded WebinarsSep 27, 2024
Watch: Prepare to Shine This Holiday SeasonThree members of JA's 2024 "20 Under 40" class join Amanda Gizzi and Lauren McLemore to share their tips for seasonal retail success.
CollectionsSep 27, 2024
Piece of the Week: Lalaounis’ Necklace is an Archaeological RevivalThe necklace, inspired by ancient artifacts, celebrates strength, endurance, and the natural world.
MajorsSep 27, 2024
Signet-Owned E-Tailer Rocksbox to Launch on AmazonRocksbox is the first banner owned by Signet to sell its jewelry through the retail giant.
