SurveysNov 01, 2021
Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday SeasonFinancialsNov 17, 2021
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations Despite Rising Prices
Holiday shopping may have started early again this year, said The National Retail Federation.
U.S. retail sales in October were up 1.7 percent month-over-month, as per data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation.
New York—Inflation is pushing prices higher, but that didn’t spook shoppers in October as U.S. monthly retail sales surpassed expectations.
Sales were up 1.7 percent month-over-month in October to $638.2 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while year-over-year sales were up 16 percent.
The results exceeded analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 1.5 percent.
September sales were stronger than previously thought, up 0.8 percent month-over-month, rather than the previous 0.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets underway,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices.”
Shay noted a list of challenges facing retailers, including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and the pending vaccine mandate, but applauded retailers for striving to safely serve customers in stores and online.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly in the wake of supply constraints.
“Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books,” said Shay.
Halloween spending and early holiday shopping may have boosted numbers, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, but most of the shopping will still be done in November and December.
“The big question, obviously, is whether much of the planned holiday buying is being done early and December sales will suffer, or if this confidence and buying power will sustain strong growth throughout the entire season,” said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at retail technology company Aptos.
“Retailers will need to be very strategic with their messaging, promotions and offers if they hope to reduce the risk of a late-season slowdown. Carefully timed and targeted offers must be combined with incentives and discounts on alternatives to out-of-stock items and flexible omnichannel strategies that evolve as COVID case counts fluctuate. This will give retailers the best chance to sustain strong growth into the new year.”
While concerns about high prices have been weighing on consumer sentiment, it hasn’t hindered spending, NRF’s Kleinhenz noted.
How customers said they felt and their shopping behaviors didn’t quite match up.
Consumer confidence was on a three-month consecutive decline until a rebound in October, despite analyst expectations of another decline.
Concerns about the Delta variant, which had weighed on sentiment, have eased somewhat, though inflation remains high.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in October and more than 6 percent year-over-year, marking the highest jump since 1991.
Gas prices surged, up nearly 4 percent for the month and 47 percent year-over-year.
Despite rising costs due to inflation and low consumer sentiment, consumers have kept spending, due in part to a high level of savings following the series of payments approved by Congress.
In the third quarter, personal savings totaled $1.6 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with a personal saving rate of nearly 9 percent.
Though not as high as the record 34 percent seen in April 2020, the personal saving rate is still at a high level compared with pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking savings rate indicates that people are spending again rather than continuing to save, and economist Maria Solovieva expects some of that to be spent this holiday season, as per her research at TD Economics.
“Our forecast assumes that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the $2.7 trillion in excess saving accumulated to-date will be spent by the end of 2023,” wrote Solovieva.
The NRF has forecasted a strong holiday season, due to high savings and progress in the fight against COVID-19.
However, a rise in COVID-19 infections could put the brakes on holiday spending, warned NRF’s Kleinhenz.
The NRF also calculates retail sales, excluding auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants.
Its calculations show October retail sales were up 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and up 11 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
For the first ten months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with its revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
October sales were up in all but two categories— clothing and clothing accessory stores and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at electronics and appliance stores and sporting goods stores.
More on Financials
The Latest
Events & AwardsDec 20, 2024
Two Participants Complete Inaugural Ella Klein InternshipJamie Dunton and Gabriella Botelho are the first graduates of the program, created by the WJA Foundation and Julius Klein Diamonds.
CollectionsDec 20, 2024
Piece of the Week: Retrouvaí’s Ring for CharityIn the spirit of giving, Retrouvaí will donate $4,000 from the sale of this ring to the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank.
IndependentsDec 19, 2024
Michigan’s DeVries Jewelers Unveils New Location in Time for the HolidaysCo-owner Dan DeVries shared what it’s like moving into a space triple the size of its old store and how it feels to be a “real jeweler” now.
Brought to you by
De Beers Group Launches Holiday Campaign for Natural Diamonds‘Forever Present’ campaign revives the iconic A Diamond is Forever tagline and celebrates the diamond dream.
CollectionsDec 19, 2024
State Property Transforms Spain’s Generalife Gardens into JewelryAlong with the latest “Gardens” collection, the brand has released limited-edition designs offering more indulgent pieces.
Weekly QuizDec 19, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeDec 19, 2024
Alleged Jewelry Thieves Attempt Rowboat EscapeThe man and woman are accused of stealing jewelry from a shipping container then trying to flee by paddling a small boat out into a bay.
SourcingDec 19, 2024
The Second-Largest Diamond Ever Found Now Has a Name The 2,488-carat diamond recovered from a mine in Botswana has been dubbed “Motswedi” while its 1,094-carat sibling is “Seriti.”
Brought to you by
Advocacy and Excellence: How Jewelers of America Is Committed to Elevating Our Industry For over a century, Jewelers of America has been the voice of the industry and valuable resource to jewelers across the country.
SourcingDec 19, 2024
Gemfields Reports Record Ruby Auction Results Despite Challenges at SourceThe average price per carat hit a record high for the miner, which said it remains unaffected by the conflict in Mozambique.
AuctionsDec 18, 2024
Alexandrite Ring Sells for Record-Setting $1.9M at Sotheby’sThe nearly 17-carat stone made history for the color-change gem that, according to the auction house, is experiencing a “notable surge” in the market.
WatchesDec 18, 2024
Historic Titanic Pocket Watch Winds Its Way Back to Tiffany & Co. More than a century after survivors gifted a Tiffany timepiece to the captain of the ship that rescued them, the jeweler has reclaimed it.
TechnologyDec 18, 2024
Picchiotti Utilizes AI in ‘Spotlight’ Video CampaignThe videos highlight how pieces from the “Xpandable” and “Reversible Xpandable” collections put the wearer in the spotlight.
IndependentsDec 18, 2024
Industry Veteran Steve Feldman Set to RetireFeldman reflected on 45 years in the jewelry industry and clarified that it’s not a total retirement.
Events & AwardsDec 17, 2024
Chanel to Receive Gem Award for High Jewelry ExcellenceThe luxury brand is being honored for excellence in high jewelry design in its “Haute Joaillerie Sport” collection.
SourcingDec 17, 2024
Frank Circelli, Founder of Gem Shopping Network, Dies at 75Circelli was a pioneer in the world of TV shopping who is remembered for his passion for gemstones and his big personality.
AuctionsDec 17, 2024
Blue Diamond Fetches $8.8M at Christie’sThe nearly 6-carat stone headlined the recent jewelry auction, which also featured Mica Ertegun’s jewelry.
CrimeDec 17, 2024
‘Black Bin Crew’ Robbers Get 14-16 Years in Prison The three men, who got their nickname because they’d toss the jewelry they stole into black plastic bins, were arrested back in August.
TrendsDec 16, 2024
Marion Fasel’s New Book Delves Into the History of Engagement Rings“The History of Diamond Engagement Rings: A True Romance” is a 128-page small-format book containing more than 165 images.
WatchesDec 16, 2024
Take a Look Inside the New Rolex Boutique on Rodeo DriveGearys opened a 6,200-square-foot Rolex store with a design that pays homage to the brand’s connection to the ocean.
GradingDec 16, 2024
GCAL By Sarine Expands 8X to 2 More Fancy Shapes The diamond cut grade is now available for marquise- and pear-shaped diamonds.
SourcingDec 16, 2024
Diamonds Do Good Announces 2025 Award RecipientsDDG said the honorees’ business practices embody a commitment to positive social impact, industry innovation, and community empowerment.
TrendsDec 13, 2024
Selena Gomez Said ‘Forever Begins Now’ to Marquise Diamond Engagement RingEstimates on the size and value of the solitaire diamond, which is mounted on a diamond pavé-set yellow gold band, vary.
TrendsDec 13, 2024
Piece of the Week: Martin Katz’s Tanzanite Drops These half-moon tanzanite earrings totaling 25 carats are part of a special trunk show taking place this weekend in Dallas.
Recorded WebinarsDec 13, 2024
Watch: The Highs and Lows of 2024The National Jeweler editors recap the top news, the best jewels, and their favorite stories of the year.
AuctionsDec 12, 2024
Tom Brady’s Watches Top $4M at Sotheby’s AuctionThe highest-grossing lot of the sale was the retired QB’s Rolex Paul Newman Daytona “John Player Special.”
SourcingDec 12, 2024
Grizzly Emerald Auction Garners $22.4MRecent expansion initiatives at the Zambian emerald mine have shown strong production numbers, said Grizzly founder Abdoulaye Ndiaye.
MajorsDec 12, 2024
Mark Henry Appoints New Director of SalesCarrie Forman joins the brand to guide it into the next phase of growth with major and independent retailers in the U.S. and abroad.
