Surveys

Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday Season

SurveysNov 01, 2021

Why the NRF Believes It’ll Be a Record-Setting Holiday Season

High household savings rates and progress in the fight against COVID should keep consumers spending.

2021_holiday boxes.png
The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday sales will grow 8.5-10.5 percent this year, totaling between $843 billion and $859 billion.
Washington, D.C.—The National Retail Federation has predicted U.S. retail sales could grow as much as 11 percent year-over-year this holiday season, potentially topping $850 billion and setting a new record. 
 
It’s a bullish but not surprising forecast given how retail—including fine jewelry—has been performing since May 2020, when the country first began to emerge from the initial COVID-19 lockdown. 
 
According to the NRF, retail sales have grown every month since May 2020 and ended the year up 7 percent over 2019. 
 
That momentum has continued in 2021, with retail sales up 14.5 percent through the first nine months of the year.  
 
On a conference call with reporters last week, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay and Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said government stimulus checks, more certainty about the handling of the pandemic, and progress in vaccinations (as of press time, the percentage of U.S. adults who are fully vaccinated was nearing 60 percent) have fueled retail sales in 2021. 
 
Government stimulus programs have helped households pay down debt and grow savings, giving them more disposable income, a stark contrast to the years leading into the Great Recession when U.S. savings hit an all-time low. 
 
Kleinhenz said falling COVID cases, the authorization of booster shots, and development of a vaccine for children ages 5 to 11 also will have U.S. consumers feeling more mobile this holiday season. 
 
In addition, the U.S.’s ban on international travelers is set to lift Nov. 8, which should give an added “jolt” to retail sales of goods, Shay noted.

“We have a great deal of confidence consumers will continue to power this economy in the last quarter of the year,” Shay said. 
 
 Related stories will be right here … 
 
Both Kleinhenz and Shay said they don’t expect supply chain disruptions or inflation to put a damper on holiday spending. 
 
Shay said retailers “do have and will have” the inventory in place to meet consumer demand. And if retailers don’t have exactly what the customer wants, the customer will simply buy something else. 
 
Shoppers “won’t go home empty-handed,” this holiday season, he said, adding the pattern of holiday shopping beginning before the calendar even hits Nov. 1 is continuing this year.
 
One challenge Shay did mention, however, is the lack of employees returning to offices, which has been a challenge for small retailers in large urban areas who depend on worker foot traffic.  
When asked if spending on experiences—trips, dinners, excursions, etc.—will take away from spending on goods this holiday season, he said that remains to be seen.
 
“That was always the question last year and, to a certain extent, continues to be the question as consumers transition back to a more active life. Thus far, we haven’t seen it. In fact, I think many retailers have found ways to take advantage of consumers moving back into a more experience-oriented economy.”
 
The NRF’s 2021 holiday forecast calls for retail sales, excluding restaurants, auto, and gas, to increase 8.5-10.5 percent year-over-year in November and December, totaling between $843 billion and $859 billion. 
 
If realized, that would top the previous high of 8.2 percent growth and $777.3 billion in spending last year.

Michelle Graffis the editor-in-chief at National Jeweler, directing the publication’s coverage both online and in print.

The Latest

Fabergé Beetlejuice Beetlejuice jewelry collection
CollectionsSep 06, 2024
The ‘Fabergé x Beetlejuice Beetlejuice’ Collection is Scary Chic

It’s showtime for these jewels, inspired by the motifs and color palette of the new Tim Burton film.

Movado Connect 2.0 watches
FinancialsSep 06, 2024
Movado Lowers Guidance as Q2 Sales Slip

CEO Efraim Grinberg pointed to a challenging consumer spending environment, particularly in the watch category.

Lizzie Mandler’s Liquid Gold Hoops
CollectionsSep 06, 2024
Piece of the Week: Lizzie Mandler’s ‘Liquid Gold’ Hoops

Inspired by a 19th century sculpture, Mandler transformed gold into liquid for these earrings.

How to Increase Instagram Followers Naturally in 2024 2.0 (1).jpg
Brought to you by
How to Increase Instagram Followers Naturally in 2024

Growing your Instagram following organically is more important than ever in today's technological environment.

Bella Hadid in Chopard Campaigns
CollectionsSep 05, 2024
Bella Hadid Is Chopard’s New Brand Ambassador

The model and entrepreneur stars in two new Chopard campaigns.

Weekly QuizSep 05, 2024
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Nordstrom men’s store New York City
MajorsSep 05, 2024
Nordstrom Family Offers to Buy Namesake Retailer for $3.8B

Members of the founding family partnered with Mexican retail company El Puerto de Liverpool to possibly take Nordstrom private.

Tiffany & Co. Elsa Peretti Bone cuff
MajorsSep 05, 2024
Tiffany & Co. Celebrates Elsa Peretti’s Bone Cuff

The iconic design has joined a lineup of notable pieces featured in the jeweler’s “With Love, Since 1837” campaign.

Supplier Spotlight -Recorded-Webinar.png
Brought to you by
Watch: Natural Diamonds: A Great (but Often Untold) Geology Story

Supplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA.

New Cadar CEO Ralph Simons
MajorsSep 05, 2024
Former Chopard, Frederique Constant Executive Tapped to Head Cadar

Ralph Simons is now CEO of the jewelry brand started by fashion designer Michal Kadar and her husband, Avraham Kadar, in 2015.

National Jeweler columnists Duvall O’Steen and Jen Cullen Williams
ColumnistsSep 04, 2024
Creative Connecting: Why ‘Experience Content’ Matters

Jen Cullen Williams and Duvall O’Steen say it’s all about giving your social media feeds a human touch.

 Models Taylor Hill and Soo Joo Park wearing Messika jewelry
TrendsSep 04, 2024
Taylor Hill, Soo Joo Park Star in New Messika Campaign

The models and friends of founder and artistic designer Valérie Messika showcase the brand’s jewelry in the “Back to Icons” campaign.

Bloomingdale’s From Italy, With Love campaign
MajorsSep 04, 2024
Bloomingdale’s to Highlight Italian Jewelry in New Campaign

“From Italy, With Love” will showcase Roberto Coin, Marco Bicego, and other Italian brands.

Zales tennis necklace over Prince tennis racket
CollectionsSep 03, 2024
Zales, Prince Debut US Open-Inspired Collection

The jewelry retailer will also have a diamond-set tennis racket on display at the tournament.

Ylang 23 Flagship
IndependentsSep 03, 2024
Ylang 23 Relocates, Expands Dallas Flagship

The retailer has moved into a 3,200-square-foot space at The Shops of Highland Park.

Suzanne Kalan
TrendsSep 03, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: Sapphires for September

The month’s birthstone is vibrant in every color.

Breitling watches
WatchesAug 30, 2024
Breitling Marks 140 Years With Special Editions of 3 Classic Watches

The special editions of the Premier, Navitimer, and Chronomat are equipped with a new perpetual calendar movement from the brand.

K. Brunini Jewel’s Butterfly Ring
CollectionsAug 30, 2024
Piece of the Week: K. Brunini Jewels’ Butterfly Ring

Fly away with designer Katey Brunini’s butterfly ring, as its spring-loaded wings flutter above your fingers.

Brilliant Earth showroom Roosevelt Field mall
MajorsAug 29, 2024
Brilliant Earth Promotes Two Executives to C-Suite Roles

The jewelry retailer has a new chief brand officer and chief operations officer.

JA Multifaceted Learning Workshop
MajorsAug 29, 2024
JA Takes Its Learning Workshops to Washington D.C., New York

Its next event will take place in D.C. on Sept. 17 and in New York City on Oct. 29.

Broken Bangle jade nomenclature book Lotus Gemology
SourcingAug 29, 2024
Lotus Gemology Publishes Book on Jade History

“Broken Bangle: The Blunder-Besmirched History of Jade Nomenclature” is an in-depth look at the evolution of jade terminology.

Titan Company Ltd. executive Ajoy Chawla and De Beers Group executive Sandrine Conseiller
SourcingAug 29, 2024
De Beers Looks to India to Boost Demand for Natural Diamonds

It is partnering with retailer Tanishq on educating salespeople, shaping the in-store experience, and a “360-degree” marketing campaign.

A person wearing the Ultrahuman Ring Air smart ring while holding a cell phone
TechnologyAug 28, 2024
Verizon Throws Its Hat in the Ring on Smart Rings

The wireless carrier is now stocking the Ultrahuman Ring Air in select U.S. stores.

Rings and a necklace from Pamela Love Jardin collection
CollectionsAug 28, 2024
Pamela Love’s ‘Jardin’ Collection Is Filled With Lush Green Emeralds

In a collaboration with Muzo, Pamela Love hand-selected each Colombian emerald for eight one-of-a-kind pieces.

Stuller headquarters
MajorsAug 28, 2024
Stuller Named ‘Great Place to Work’

The certification is based on employee responses about their experience working at a company.

Stock image of loose polished diamonds
Policies & IssuesAug 27, 2024
US to Allow Import of ‘Legacy’ Diamonds From Russia

OFAC has issued two licenses addressing the issue, one for diamond-set jewelry and one for loose diamonds.

Man at International Gemological Institute microscope
GradingAug 27, 2024
IGI Files for IPO in India

The gemological lab is looking to raise up to $477 million.

Earrings by Olga Shatrova
Events & AwardsAug 27, 2024
Here Are the Winners of the 2024 CASE Awards

The annual jewelry design competition celebrates creativity, artistry, style, and excellence.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy