SurveysSep 29, 2021
Consumer Confidence Hits 7-Month LowSurveysOct 05, 2021
Deloitte Also Predicts a Happy Holiday for Retailers
Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow between 7 and 9 percent, as per the firm’s annual forecast.
Retailers can expect a merry and bright holiday season this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
New York—Retailers can expect a happy holiday this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
The financial services company expects 2021 holiday retail sales to increase between 7 and 9 percent, a very merry forecast that comes on the heels of a similar prediction from Mastercard SpendingPulse.
A rise in vaccination rates is bringing consumers out of the house and into stores and restaurants, boosting spending on services while spending on goods remains steady, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in a press release about the forecast.
“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season,” he said.
Consumer spending strength will carry over to online shopping as well, with holiday e-commerce sales expected to grow between 11 and 15 percent.
E-commerce sales are expected to total $210 billion to $218 billion.
The financial services company expects 2021 holiday retail sales to increase between 7 and 9 percent, a very merry forecast that comes on the heels of a similar prediction from Mastercard SpendingPulse.
A rise in vaccination rates is bringing consumers out of the house and into stores and restaurants, boosting spending on services while spending on goods remains steady, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in a press release about the forecast.
“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season,” he said.
Consumer spending strength will carry over to online shopping as well, with holiday e-commerce sales expected to grow between 11 and 15 percent.
E-commerce sales are expected to total $210 billion to $218 billion.
“Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping … will be poised for growth this holiday season.”— Rod Sides, Deloitte
This year’s merry holiday season follows last year’s strong season, reflecting continued growth in sales.
Holiday 2020 sales were higher than expected, up nearly 6 percent year-over-year, totaling $1.19 trillion, as per the U.S. Census Bureau.
Last year, e-commerce sales grew nearly 35 percent to $189 billion.
“The 2021 forecast projects a strong growth rate amid already elevated retail sales and growth in disposable personal income that is likely to remain flat heading into the season,” said Deloitte.
The Delta variant and pandemic-related uncertainty could lead to more spending on goods, the company also noted.
“While consumer concerns about health and safety have eased since the last holiday season, pandemic-influenced shopping behaviors continue to gain traction,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail and distribution sector leader.
“Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping, as well as order fulfillment, will be poised for growth this holiday season, and into the new year.”
A strong holiday season may seem questionable, particularly when considering U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in September as COVID-19 infections continue to rise, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since February.
However, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz remains hopeful for the holidays, as he takes other factors into consideration.
“With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, all eyes are closely watching shoppers’ ability to drive the economy,” said Kleinhenz.
“If consumer finances are any indication, there’s reason to be optimistic: Households remain in good shape, with consumers in the aggregate actually underspending relative to current income.”
While enhanced unemployment benefits have expired, that loss may be offset by an uptick in savings since the start of the pandemic, he said.
There hasn’t been much to celebrate on the economic front in recent months, as COVID-19 cases went from record lows in the early summer to a six-month high by September, straining health care systems in hard-hit states.
August payroll numbers were bleak, up 235,000 jobs nationwide, down from a gain of 1.1 million the month before.
And last month, the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth for the year to 6 percent from 7 percent, and expects unemployment to end the year at 4.8 percent rather than 4.4 percent.
“There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer—and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.” — Jack Kleinhenz, NRF
The Consumer Price Index showed inflation was up 5 percent year-over-year in August, due to consumer demand and supply chain disruptions.
To add to that, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 71 in September, below its pandemic high of 88.3 in April, marking the lowest confidence level since the start of the pandemic.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index experienced a similar drop.
In spite of all this, August retail sales still rose, up 2 percent month-over-month and 12 percent year-over-year.
The October issue of the NRF’s Monthly Economic Review showed consumers’ mid-summer savings rate of 10 percent exceeded pre-pandemic levels, noting that strong employment gains, higher wages, and the Child Tax Credit would boost income growth going forward.
“That strong momentum shows there’s a big disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending at the moment and that the downdraft in confidence may well be a false scent,” Kleinhenz said.
“There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer—and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.”
While August job gains missed the mark, wages grew more than 4 percent year-over-year with job openings at a record high of 10.9 million at the end of July.
The numbers show that demand for labor is still strong, said Kleinhenz, and that a lack of workers rather than a lack of jobs is the impediment to hiring.
“With the end of supplemental unemployment benefits taking away financial incentives to stay home and the reopening of schools easing child care responsibilities for parents who want to get back to work, stronger growth should be on its way.”
While some economists believe financial incentives have kept people from working, others point to a lack of childcare and low wages as well as some workers retiring early or looking for a new career path.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
SourcingSep 30, 2026
Botswana’s President, De Beers CEO Say Diamond Demand Is RecoveringPresident Duma Boko spoke at back-to-back events in the city last week, touting Botswana’s stability and the diamond “bounceback.”
CollectionsSep 30, 2026
Oscar Heyman’s Holiday Book Is ‘A Living Archive’ The catalog showcases 112 new, one-of-a-kind pieces amid highlights from the jeweler’s historic archive.
SourcingSep 30, 2026
Gemfields Posts $98.5M Loss, Writes Down Value of Ruby MineIts Montepuez Ruby Mining operation in Mozambique, which is not yielding enough high-quality rubies, has taken a $125 million hit.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
Events & AwardsSep 30, 2026
Jewelers of America, JA New York to Host Networking EventThe event will take place on the evening of Oct. 26 in New York City.
Weekly QuizSep 25, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsSep 29, 2026
Christy Bromberg, Longtime Gift Buyer for Underwood Jewelers, Dies at 68She is remembered for her joie de vivre, upbeat personality, genuine interest in other people, and love of the Alabama Crimson Tide.
AuctionsSep 29, 2026
Dionne Warwick’s Jewelry Goes Up for AuctionOnline bidding is open now for Julien’s sale of items owned by the “Walk On By” singer, whose final album comes out this fall.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
Events & AwardsSep 29, 2026
Matt Stuller to Receive 2027 Gem Award for Lifetime AchievementThe founder and executive chairman of Stuller Inc. is being honored for his impact on the jewelry industry at the 25th annual Gem Awards.
ColumnistsSep 29, 2026
Your Holiday Marketing Has a Bridal Blind SpotDecember is the most popular month to propose, and jewelers need to keep that in mind when planning their holiday marketing.
AuctionsSep 29, 2026
If You Love Cats, This Jewelry Auction Is for YouCat ladies of the jewelry world, unite. Sandy Lerner’s collection of cat jewelry and other objects is going up for auction Wednesday.
CollectionsSep 28, 2026
De Beers London Drops Water-Inspired High Jewelry Collection“Vibrations” features several firsts for De Beers’ high jewelry, including the use of chalcedony and diamonds sourced from artisanal miners.
CollectionsSep 28, 2026
Jessica McCormack Turns to Classic Motif for New CollectionThe “Bows” collection features three interpretations of the bow motif designed with Georgian and Victorian influences.
Events & AwardsSep 28, 2026
Guy Borenstein, Troy Underwood Among the Professionals Honored at AGS Conclave 2026The American Gem Society recognized industry members, one Guild, and a law enforcement official for their contributions to jewelry.
FinancialsSep 28, 2026
Instappraise, Jewelers Mutual Look to Simplify Jewelry InsuranceThrough a new system integration, customers can now receive instant personal jewelry insurance quotes at the time of appraisal.
WatchesSep 25, 2026
Smaller Rolex Watches Showing Strength on Secondary Market, Data ShowsFive of the 10 fastest-appreciating Rolex models on Bob’s Watches were Datejust 31 or Lady Datejust watches.
MajorsSep 25, 2026
Sherwood Family Buys Back Daniel’s Jewelers from Private EquityThe Sherwood family and AJS Creations CEO Tejas Shah purchased the jewelry chain back from Palladium Equity Partners.
Lab-GrownSep 25, 2026
Brilliant Earth Collabs with Elizabeth Taylor Estate on Jewelry Collection“The Elizabeth Taylor Collection” uses lab-grown diamonds and gemstones in contemporary designs inspired by the icon.
TrendsSep 25, 2026
A Peek at Taylor Swift’s Game-Day DiamondsThe artist wore Dana Rebecca Designs’ marquise diamond-set gold hoops at the Chiefs game last Sunday. Now they’re our Piece of the Week.
CrimeSep 24, 2026
From Conclave: Security Measures Jewelers Should Be TakingJSA and Jewelers Mutual shared advice on spotting suspicious behavior, combatting cell phone jammers, and staying safe at home.
AuctionsSep 24, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Heads to UK Jewelry AuctionThe fancy light blue diamond is estimated to fetch up to $2.6 million at Elmwood’s next week.
TrendsSep 24, 2026
This New Jewelry Book Decodes the Secret Meaning in Victorian Jewelry“Secret Language of Victorian Jewelry” unveils the meaning behind the symbols, motifs, and gemstones used in Victorian-era jewelry.
Lab-GrownSep 24, 2026
Kira Jewels Opens B2B E-Commerce Portal for Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry KIRAJewels.one gives retailers access to more than 500 SKUs of lab-grown diamond rings, earrings, necklaces, and bracelets.
TrendsSep 23, 2026
Holiday Diamond Jewelry Trends: Layered Looks, PersonalizationThis holiday season, look to pieces that will help to fill out customers’ everyday diamond jewelry wardrobe, experts say.
SourcingSep 23, 2026
Organization That Promotes Natural Diamond Rebrands for Third Time The Natural Diamond Council is now The Diamond Collective and has announced a new strategy under CEO Amber Pepper.
IndependentsSep 23, 2026
This Milwaukee-Area Jeweler Is Serving the 7CsPaul’s Jewelers sells coffee, chocolate, and cookies from a custom gold-wrapped trailer parked outside the store starting at 7 a.m.
