SurveysSep 29, 2021
Consumer Confidence Hits 7-Month LowSurveysOct 05, 2021
Deloitte Also Predicts a Happy Holiday for Retailers
Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow between 7 and 9 percent, as per the firm’s annual forecast.
Retailers can expect a merry and bright holiday season this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
New York—Retailers can expect a happy holiday this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
The financial services company expects 2021 holiday retail sales to increase between 7 and 9 percent, a very merry forecast that comes on the heels of a similar prediction from Mastercard SpendingPulse.
A rise in vaccination rates is bringing consumers out of the house and into stores and restaurants, boosting spending on services while spending on goods remains steady, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in a press release about the forecast.
“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season,” he said.
Consumer spending strength will carry over to online shopping as well, with holiday e-commerce sales expected to grow between 11 and 15 percent.
E-commerce sales are expected to total $210 billion to $218 billion.
The financial services company expects 2021 holiday retail sales to increase between 7 and 9 percent, a very merry forecast that comes on the heels of a similar prediction from Mastercard SpendingPulse.
A rise in vaccination rates is bringing consumers out of the house and into stores and restaurants, boosting spending on services while spending on goods remains steady, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in a press release about the forecast.
“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season,” he said.
Consumer spending strength will carry over to online shopping as well, with holiday e-commerce sales expected to grow between 11 and 15 percent.
E-commerce sales are expected to total $210 billion to $218 billion.
“Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping … will be poised for growth this holiday season.”— Rod Sides, Deloitte
This year’s merry holiday season follows last year’s strong season, reflecting continued growth in sales.
Holiday 2020 sales were higher than expected, up nearly 6 percent year-over-year, totaling $1.19 trillion, as per the U.S. Census Bureau.
Last year, e-commerce sales grew nearly 35 percent to $189 billion.
“The 2021 forecast projects a strong growth rate amid already elevated retail sales and growth in disposable personal income that is likely to remain flat heading into the season,” said Deloitte.
The Delta variant and pandemic-related uncertainty could lead to more spending on goods, the company also noted.
“While consumer concerns about health and safety have eased since the last holiday season, pandemic-influenced shopping behaviors continue to gain traction,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail and distribution sector leader.
“Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping, as well as order fulfillment, will be poised for growth this holiday season, and into the new year.”
A strong holiday season may seem questionable, particularly when considering U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in September as COVID-19 infections continue to rise, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since February.
However, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz remains hopeful for the holidays, as he takes other factors into consideration.
“With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, all eyes are closely watching shoppers’ ability to drive the economy,” said Kleinhenz.
“If consumer finances are any indication, there’s reason to be optimistic: Households remain in good shape, with consumers in the aggregate actually underspending relative to current income.”
While enhanced unemployment benefits have expired, that loss may be offset by an uptick in savings since the start of the pandemic, he said.
There hasn’t been much to celebrate on the economic front in recent months, as COVID-19 cases went from record lows in the early summer to a six-month high by September, straining health care systems in hard-hit states.
August payroll numbers were bleak, up 235,000 jobs nationwide, down from a gain of 1.1 million the month before.
And last month, the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth for the year to 6 percent from 7 percent, and expects unemployment to end the year at 4.8 percent rather than 4.4 percent.
“There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer—and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.” — Jack Kleinhenz, NRF
The Consumer Price Index showed inflation was up 5 percent year-over-year in August, due to consumer demand and supply chain disruptions.
To add to that, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 71 in September, below its pandemic high of 88.3 in April, marking the lowest confidence level since the start of the pandemic.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index experienced a similar drop.
In spite of all this, August retail sales still rose, up 2 percent month-over-month and 12 percent year-over-year.
The October issue of the NRF’s Monthly Economic Review showed consumers’ mid-summer savings rate of 10 percent exceeded pre-pandemic levels, noting that strong employment gains, higher wages, and the Child Tax Credit would boost income growth going forward.
“That strong momentum shows there’s a big disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending at the moment and that the downdraft in confidence may well be a false scent,” Kleinhenz said.
“There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer—and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.”
While August job gains missed the mark, wages grew more than 4 percent year-over-year with job openings at a record high of 10.9 million at the end of July.
The numbers show that demand for labor is still strong, said Kleinhenz, and that a lack of workers rather than a lack of jobs is the impediment to hiring.
“With the end of supplemental unemployment benefits taking away financial incentives to stay home and the reopening of schools easing child care responsibilities for parents who want to get back to work, stronger growth should be on its way.”
While some economists believe financial incentives have kept people from working, others point to a lack of childcare and low wages as well as some workers retiring early or looking for a new career path.
More on Surveys
The Latest
EditorsNov 22, 2024
Out & About: Inside the CD Peacock MansionStep inside the nearly 21,000-square-foot suburban Chicago jewelry store with Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff.
CollectionsNov 22, 2024
Piece of the Week: Xander Jane’s ‘Spiked’ Pearl StudsThese punk-inspired earrings from the new Canadian brand’s debut collection reveal the alter ego of the classic pearl.
SourcingNov 22, 2024
Facets of Fire Expands to Include Pear, Marquise DiamondsThe company brings its nanotechnology to two new fancy cuts for diamonds that feature its signature color and brilliance.
Brought to you by
Navigating Cybersecurity: Essential Guidance for JewelersFrom protecting customer data to safeguarding inventory records, it's crucial to learn how to tackle cybersecurity challenges.
Supplier BulletinNov 21, 2024
Tasha R Releases 2025 Labbelle Lab Diamond Jewelry CatalogSponsored by Tasha R
Weekly QuizNov 21, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsNov 21, 2024
Gold Watch Gifted to Titanic Rescue Ship Captain Sells for $2MThree Titanic survivors presented him with the personalized Tiffany & Co. timepiece about a year after the tragedy.
MajorsNov 21, 2024
Harris Jewelry Ordered to Reopen Claims Portal for Refund RequestsA federal court found that the jewelry store chain violated terms of the settlement reached after it was accused of defrauding customers.
Brought to you by
Enhance Your Expertise with IGI’s In-Person Courses in NYCThis fall, sharpen your skills in jewelry grading, quality control and diamond assessment.
CollectionsNov 21, 2024
Channel Elphaba in Muse’s ‘Have a Heart x Cynthia Erivo’ CollectionCynthia Erivo chose Dreams of Hope, an organization dedicated to empowering LGBTQA+ youth, as the charity for this year’s collection.
MajorsNov 21, 2024
Rocksbox Opens Pop-Up Store in San FranciscoThe new space was designed to evoke a warm, inviting vibe.
IndependentsNov 21, 2024
Mary Moses Kinney Is Now Part of The Edge’s Team Kinney, who spent nearly 30 years at IJO, has been hired to head Abbott Jewelry Systems’ new virtual marketplace.
CrimeNov 20, 2024
Sotheby’s to Pay $6.25M Settlement to NY State for Alleged Tax FraudThe auction house was accused of helping clients avoid paying taxes on millions of dollars’ worth of art purchased from 2010 to 2020.
Events & AwardsNov 20, 2024
Kering Debuts New Jewelry Award With Sustainability FocusThe four finalists will present their pieces at the 2025 JCK Las Vegas show.
CollectionsNov 20, 2024
Pamela Love Channels Surrealist Artists in New CollectionThe “Camera Oscura” collection showcases earring designs celebrating female Surrealist artists Claude Cahun and Leonor Fini.
Policies & IssuesNov 20, 2024
Columbia Gem House Raises $10K for Reforestation EffortsThe money will fund the planting of 10,000 trees in critical areas across Oregon, Arizona, Montana, and other regions.
Events & AwardsNov 20, 2024
The Jewelry Symposium Opens Registration, Scholarship ApplicationsThe event centered on advancing jewelry manufacturing technology will return to Detroit in May 2025.
CrimeNov 19, 2024
Woman Killed in Armed Robbery of Sacramento Jewelry StoreLocal reports identified the woman as the wife of the jewelry store owner.
AuctionsNov 19, 2024
‘A Tsar’s Treasure’ Fetches $2.9M at Sotheby’s Jewelry SaleA collection of pieces owned by Ferdinand I, the first king of modern Bulgaria, and his family, blew away estimates in Geneva last week.
MajorsNov 19, 2024
Trove Opens First US Flagship in NYCThe Australian jewelry box brand’s new West Village store will showcase new jewelers each month through its Designer in Residence program.
CollectionsNov 19, 2024
Snoop Dogg’s New Jewelry Collection Is All About Love“Lovechild” was created in partnership with Carolyn Rafaelian’s Metal Alchemist brand.
EditorsNov 18, 2024
Q&A: Helzberg CEO Brad Hampton on the Jeweler’s RebrandHampton discussed how Helzberg is improving the customer experience and why it was inspired by the company formerly known as Dunkin’ Donuts.
Policies & IssuesNov 18, 2024
Reciprocity Jewels Returns to NYC Jewelry WeekThe group will host several curated events and an exhibition of designer jewelry made with Peruvian gold traceable to the miners’ names.
CollectionsNov 18, 2024
Dolly Parton Shines in Collaboration with Kendra ScottThe collection honors the 50th anniversary of Dolly Parton’s “Love is Like a Butterfly” song, which shares a birth year with Kendra Scott.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2024
IGI Jewelry Design Competition ReturnsThis year’s theme asks designers to take inspiration from classic fairy tales.
EditorsNov 15, 2024
Why Fine Jewelry Belongs at New York Comic ConSenior Editor Lenore Fedow makes the case for why more jewelers should be appealing to nerds at the annual event.
CollectionsNov 15, 2024
Marie Lichtenberg Battles Counterfeits with New ‘Raiz’in Scapular’ DesignsThe latest “Raiz’in” drop showcases a newly designed “Scapular” necklace and donates a portion of the proceeds to Make-A-Wish France.
WatchesNov 15, 2024
Piece of the Week: Citizen’s Commemorative Pocket WatchNo. 1 out of 100, the timepiece was created to mark Citizen’s 100th anniversary and will be auctioned off at Sotheby’s next month.
