SurveysSep 29, 2021
Consumer Confidence Hits 7-Month LowSurveysOct 05, 2021
Deloitte Also Predicts a Happy Holiday for Retailers
Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow between 7 and 9 percent, as per the firm’s annual forecast.
Retailers can expect a merry and bright holiday season this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
New York—Retailers can expect a happy holiday this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
The financial services company expects 2021 holiday retail sales to increase between 7 and 9 percent, a very merry forecast that comes on the heels of a similar prediction from Mastercard SpendingPulse.
A rise in vaccination rates is bringing consumers out of the house and into stores and restaurants, boosting spending on services while spending on goods remains steady, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in a press release about the forecast.
“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season,” he said.
Consumer spending strength will carry over to online shopping as well, with holiday e-commerce sales expected to grow between 11 and 15 percent.
E-commerce sales are expected to total $210 billion to $218 billion.
The financial services company expects 2021 holiday retail sales to increase between 7 and 9 percent, a very merry forecast that comes on the heels of a similar prediction from Mastercard SpendingPulse.
A rise in vaccination rates is bringing consumers out of the house and into stores and restaurants, boosting spending on services while spending on goods remains steady, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in a press release about the forecast.
“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season,” he said.
Consumer spending strength will carry over to online shopping as well, with holiday e-commerce sales expected to grow between 11 and 15 percent.
E-commerce sales are expected to total $210 billion to $218 billion.
“Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping … will be poised for growth this holiday season.”— Rod Sides, Deloitte
This year’s merry holiday season follows last year’s strong season, reflecting continued growth in sales.
Holiday 2020 sales were higher than expected, up nearly 6 percent year-over-year, totaling $1.19 trillion, as per the U.S. Census Bureau.
Last year, e-commerce sales grew nearly 35 percent to $189 billion.
“The 2021 forecast projects a strong growth rate amid already elevated retail sales and growth in disposable personal income that is likely to remain flat heading into the season,” said Deloitte.
The Delta variant and pandemic-related uncertainty could lead to more spending on goods, the company also noted.
“While consumer concerns about health and safety have eased since the last holiday season, pandemic-influenced shopping behaviors continue to gain traction,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail and distribution sector leader.
“Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping, as well as order fulfillment, will be poised for growth this holiday season, and into the new year.”
A strong holiday season may seem questionable, particularly when considering U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in September as COVID-19 infections continue to rise, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since February.
However, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz remains hopeful for the holidays, as he takes other factors into consideration.
“With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, all eyes are closely watching shoppers’ ability to drive the economy,” said Kleinhenz.
“If consumer finances are any indication, there’s reason to be optimistic: Households remain in good shape, with consumers in the aggregate actually underspending relative to current income.”
While enhanced unemployment benefits have expired, that loss may be offset by an uptick in savings since the start of the pandemic, he said.
There hasn’t been much to celebrate on the economic front in recent months, as COVID-19 cases went from record lows in the early summer to a six-month high by September, straining health care systems in hard-hit states.
August payroll numbers were bleak, up 235,000 jobs nationwide, down from a gain of 1.1 million the month before.
And last month, the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth for the year to 6 percent from 7 percent, and expects unemployment to end the year at 4.8 percent rather than 4.4 percent.
“There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer—and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.” — Jack Kleinhenz, NRF
The Consumer Price Index showed inflation was up 5 percent year-over-year in August, due to consumer demand and supply chain disruptions.
To add to that, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 71 in September, below its pandemic high of 88.3 in April, marking the lowest confidence level since the start of the pandemic.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index experienced a similar drop.
In spite of all this, August retail sales still rose, up 2 percent month-over-month and 12 percent year-over-year.
The October issue of the NRF’s Monthly Economic Review showed consumers’ mid-summer savings rate of 10 percent exceeded pre-pandemic levels, noting that strong employment gains, higher wages, and the Child Tax Credit would boost income growth going forward.
“That strong momentum shows there’s a big disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending at the moment and that the downdraft in confidence may well be a false scent,” Kleinhenz said.
“There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer—and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.”
While August job gains missed the mark, wages grew more than 4 percent year-over-year with job openings at a record high of 10.9 million at the end of July.
The numbers show that demand for labor is still strong, said Kleinhenz, and that a lack of workers rather than a lack of jobs is the impediment to hiring.
“With the end of supplemental unemployment benefits taking away financial incentives to stay home and the reopening of schools easing child care responsibilities for parents who want to get back to work, stronger growth should be on its way.”
While some economists believe financial incentives have kept people from working, others point to a lack of childcare and low wages as well as some workers retiring early or looking for a new career path.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
SourcingJan 28, 2026
Ethical Gem Fair to Debut Designer Showcase in TucsonThe new addition will feature finished jewelry created using “consciously sourced” gemstones.
ColumnistsJan 28, 2026
Peter Smith: Setting the Next Generation Up for SuccessIn his new column, Smith advises playing to your successor's strengths and resisting the urge to become a backseat driver.
IndependentsJan 28, 2026
Foundrae Heads to Aspen for Latest Store OpeningThe new store in Aspen, Colorado, takes inspiration from a stately library for its intimate yet elevated interior design.
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench JewelersLaunched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.
FinancialsJan 28, 2026
Tiffany & Co., Bulgari Sales Resilient as LVMH’s 2025 Sales SlipThe brands’ high jewelry collections performed especially well last year despite a challenging environment.
Weekly QuizJan 22, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsJan 27, 2026
De Beers London, GemFair Debut New Collection Highlighting Artisanal DiamondsThe collection marks the first time GemFair’s artisanal diamonds will be brought directly to consumers.
SourcingJan 27, 2026
GemGuide Launches Pricing for Montana SapphiresThe initial charts are for blue, teal, and green material, each grouped into three charts categorized as good, fine, and extra fine.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
TechnologyJan 27, 2026
Clientbook Launches Appointment Booking ToolThe new tool can assign the appropriate associate based on the client or appointment type and automate personalized text message follow-ups.
SourcingJan 26, 2026
Tucson Preview 2026: Earthy Tones and Innovative Shapes Buyers are expected to gravitate toward gemstones that have a little something special, just like last year.
SourcingJan 26, 2026
Angolan Diamond Cos. Join NDC as Rio Tinto, Murowa Exit Endiama and Sodiam will contribute money to the marketing of natural diamonds as new members of the Natural Diamond Council.
MajorsJan 26, 2026
Francesca’s To Close All StoresThe retailer operates more than 450 boutiques across 45 states, according to its website.
MajorsJan 26, 2026
BIJC Names 5 New Board MembersThe new members’ skills span communications, business development, advocacy, and industry leadership.
CollectionsJan 26, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Celebrates 189 Years of Love StoriesThe jeweler’s 2026 Valentine’s Day campaign, “Celebrating Love Stories Since 1837,” includes a short firm starring actress Adria Arjona.
GradingJan 26, 2026
DCA Updates Colored Gemstone CourseThe new features include interactive flashcards and scenario-based roleplay with AI tools.
MajorsJan 23, 2026
Watches of Switzerland Acquires 4-Store Jewelry Chain in TexasFamily-owned jewelry and watch retailer Deutsch & Deutsch has stores in El Paso, Laredo, McAllen, and Victoria.
WatchesJan 23, 2026
Damiani Group to Acquire Baume & MercierThe Italian luxury company purchased the nearly 200-year-old Swiss watch brand from Richemont.
TrendsJan 23, 2026
Martin Katz’s Earrings Call to Mind Wintry Weather Micro-set with hundreds of diamonds, these snowflake earrings recreate “winter’s most elegant silhouette,” and are our Piece of the Week.
MajorsJan 23, 2026
Rembrandt Charms Names New Director of Creative, Brand StrategyElla Blum was appointed to the newly created role.
Supplier BulletinJan 22, 2026
The Rise of Centralized Sourcing in the Colored Gemstone MarketSponsored by RapNet
MajorsJan 22, 2026
Lugano Diamonds Finds a BuyerInvestment firm Enhanced Retail Funding, a division of Gordon Brothers, was the successful bidder.
SourcingJan 22, 2026
De Beers To Release ‘A Diamond Is Forever’ BookIt explores the history of the iconic tagline and the company’s strategy to redefine the role of diamonds in society.
MajorsJan 22, 2026
Swarovski Appoints New North America PresidentRetail veteran Sindhu Culas has stepped into the role.
MajorsJan 22, 2026
Stuller Names New Chief Merchandising, Marketing, Sales OfficerTaylor Burgess, who has been at Stuller since 2013, was promoted to the newly created role.
PodcastsJan 21, 2026
Episode 1: High Gold Prices, the Diamond Dilemma, & What’s NextWas 2025 a good year for jewelers? Did lab-grown diamonds outsell natural? Find out on the first episode of the “My Next Question” podcast.
EditorsJan 21, 2026
6 Jewelry Designers Poised to Have a Breakout Year in 2026Whether you recognize their jewels or are just discovering them now, these designers’ talent and vision make them ones to watch this year.
CrimeJan 21, 2026
4 Men Charged in $1.7M California Smash-and-Grab Jewelry Store RobberyPlus, JSA’s Scott Guginsky discusses the need for jewelers to take more precautions as the gold price continues to climb.
