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Consumer Confidence Rises Again in November
A more positive view of the current labor market boosted the Conference Board’s index last month.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 111.7 in November from an upwardly revised 109.6 in October.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence was on the rise in November as consumers once again took a more positive view of the current labor market.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November from an upwardly revised 109.6 in October.
“Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market.”
When compared with October, respondents also were more optimistic about future job availability, said Peterson.
Consumers’ expectations regarding future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly more pessimistic about future income.
As for the write-in responses, the number of mentions of inflation and higher prices declined as attention shifted to the November elections, but the elevated cost of living is still a top concern.
The average 12-month inflation expectations declined slightly to 4.9 percent in November from 5.3 percent in October, marking the lowest level since March 2020.
November’s survey also asked a special question about consumers’ concerns and hopes for 2025.
Higher prices were the top concern and lower prices were the top wish as consumers looked to the new year. This was true for all incomes and age groups, said the Conference Board.
“That same question found higher taxes, wars and conflict, and social unrest are other major—although less acute—concerns for consumers,” it said.
Issues involving household finances topped the wish list, including wanting to save more money, paying lower taxes, and paying off debt.
Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, exceeded 2020 levels but were below 2016 levels.
Gains in consumer confidence in November were led by a boost in confidence for consumers under 35 years old.
Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw confidence decline slightly following a sharp rise in October.
By income, all groups reported higher confidence, except those at the top (earning more than $125,000) and those at the bottom (earning less than $15,000).
On a six-month moving average basis, households aged under 35 and those earning over $100,000 remain the most confident.
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The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November from an upwardly revised 109.6 in October.
“Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market.”
When compared with October, respondents also were more optimistic about future job availability, said Peterson.
Consumers’ expectations regarding future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly more pessimistic about future income.
As for the write-in responses, the number of mentions of inflation and higher prices declined as attention shifted to the November elections, but the elevated cost of living is still a top concern.
The average 12-month inflation expectations declined slightly to 4.9 percent in November from 5.3 percent in October, marking the lowest level since March 2020.
November’s survey also asked a special question about consumers’ concerns and hopes for 2025.
Higher prices were the top concern and lower prices were the top wish as consumers looked to the new year. This was true for all incomes and age groups, said the Conference Board.
“That same question found higher taxes, wars and conflict, and social unrest are other major—although less acute—concerns for consumers,” it said.
Issues involving household finances topped the wish list, including wanting to save more money, paying lower taxes, and paying off debt.
Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, exceeded 2020 levels but were below 2016 levels.
Gains in consumer confidence in November were led by a boost in confidence for consumers under 35 years old.
Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw confidence decline slightly following a sharp rise in October.
By income, all groups reported higher confidence, except those at the top (earning more than $125,000) and those at the bottom (earning less than $15,000).
On a six-month moving average basis, households aged under 35 and those earning over $100,000 remain the most confident.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 140.9 in November from a downwardly revised 136.1 in October.
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were mixed with slightly fewer respondents calling conditions “good” but fewer saying they were “bad.”
Their view of the labor market was also mixed, with fewer respondents saying jobs were “plentiful” but fewer saying jobs were “hard to get.”
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 92.3 from an upwardly revised 91.9 in October.
It remained above 80, said the Conference Board, noting a reading below 80 normally signals a recession in the near future.
Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions were also mixed, with more respondents expecting conditions to improve but also more expecting conditions to worsen.
The labor market outlook was also mixed—a pattern for November’s survey—with more respondents expecting more jobs to be available but also more expecting fewer jobs to be available.
As for future income prospects, consumers were more pessimistic in November.
Fewer respondents expected their incomes to increase while those expecting their incomes to decrease was unchanged month-over-month.
Their outlooks on their family’s current financial situation, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index, were more pessimistic, though they felt more positive when looking six months ahead, the survey showed.
The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months” metric declined in November, reaching its lowest point since the Conference Board began asking this question in July 2022, Peterson said.
As for big purchases, plans to buy homes stalled while plans to buy cars were up slightly on a six-month moving average basis.
When consumers were asked about plans to buy “more durable” goods or services over the next six months, they once again showed a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods.
As for services, consumer priorities were virtually unchanged. They plan to spend slightly less in most categories going forward, except for travel and healthcare.
More consumers said they were uncertain about future purchases of big-ticket items; plans to buy most appliances and electronics were down.
Looking to the stock market, consumers were more optimistic, with 56 percent of consumers expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead. It marked another record high for this measure, a question first asked in 1987.
Only 21 percent expected to see stock prices decline.
As for interest rates, the percentage of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months declined to 44 percent while the share of respondents expecting lower rates increased to 35 percent, the highest since April 2020.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for December are set to be released on Dec. 23.
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