Surveys

Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season

SurveysNov 03, 2023

Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season

Sales will increase compared with last year, though the rate of growth is expected to slow.

Holiday presents
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to grow 3 to 4 percent year-over-year, according to its annual forecast, released Thursday.
Washington—The National Retail Federation is forecasting a merry and bright holiday season, though it predicts spending won’t grow as robustly as it has in recent years.

Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.

The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.

However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.

NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.

“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.

Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.

“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.

“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.

“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”

As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.

To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.

As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.

A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.

“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”— Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation 

During the call, Shay and Kleinhenz also shed light on why consumer spending is up despite the fact that consumer confidence is down.

“This disconnect has been going on all year where consumer confidence and sentiment have been at very low levels that don’t seem consistent with what consumers are doing,” said Kleinhenz.

Though consumers are still positive about their household finances and job security, he said, inflation is taking its toll on their outlooks.

“We were in a period of time for almost 10 years where there was zero inflation. I think there are many households, probably young households, that have no recollection of what it was like.” 

He also added that people’s political views can inform how they view the economy’s performance.

If, for example, the party you identify with is in power, you may view the economy more favorably, while those in the opposing party may take a more negative view.

Shay echoed Kleinhenz’s take on the impact of inflation.

“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”

He said consumers still will go out and spend money if they have jobs and receive pay increases.

“As long as the job market is as strong as it is, the actions are going to continue to power the economy,” said Shay.

Though some headwinds retailers and shoppers alike can foresee, there may be some “unpredictable impacts” from winter weather on the way.

“This year, holiday retail spending may experience residual effects from El Niño, depending on the strength and persistence of the weather phenomena,” NRF noted.

NRF will conduct a separate survey about the holiday weekend forecast that will include Black Friday sales predictions.

The Latest

Bergman Jewelers family
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 Years

The independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.

QVC Group Inc. logo
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.

The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.

Coconut Grove Jewelry & Watch Show
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in Florida

The debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.

bench jeweler 1872x1052.png
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They Deserve

Bench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.

The Jewelry Symposium (TJS)
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor Shortage

The roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.

Weekly QuizMar 27, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann Collection Bracelets
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry Collection

The “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.

Graphic for What Do We Mean When We Say “Recycled” Gold webinar
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?

Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.

Facets-of-Fire-Difference-You-Can-See.jpg
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean More

Natural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.

Mindi Mond Clarity Earrings
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in Diamonds

Diamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.

Lashbrook ring
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With Acquisition

The Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.

Bulgari and LVMH Watches CEO Jean-Christophe Babin
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH Watches

The longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.

Surveillance footage of robbery
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry Store

Authorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.

Nephrite and Jadeite by Heinrich Fischer, Richard W. Hughes
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in English

Lotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.

LÖF The Valentine Ring
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ Ring

The ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.

Richard Rainsford memorial ring
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction

However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.

Austin Butler
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand Ambassador

The Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.

ICA Congress Brazil 2025
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress

The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.

Bailey’s Fine Jewelry storefront
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent Jeweler

The family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Bulova 150 Art Deco Miss America Watch, 150 Art Deco Pocket Watch
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco Watches

The “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.

Alex Wellen
MajorsMar 26, 2025
QVC Group Appoints New President

Alex Wellen, formerly CEO and president of MotorTrend Group, has taken on the role.

Jewelers of America’s new logo
Events & AwardsMar 26, 2025
Jewelers of America Announces New Funding Initiative

The Impact Initiative is part of the nonprofit association’s new three-year strategic plan.

Christies regent kashmir sapphire and regal Burmese ruby
AuctionsMar 25, 2025
Christie’s To Auction 35-Carat Sapphire, 13-Carat Ruby

The ruby and the sapphire, which Christie’s calls a “once-in-a-generation masterpiece,” are part of the upcoming Hong Kong jewelry auction.

Diamond earrings held in gloved hand
CrimeMar 25, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Earrings Swallowed Following Grab-and-Run Theft Recovered

The two pairs of earrings, snatched from a Tiffany & Co. store in Orlando, Florida, are valued at a combined $769,500.

Emmanuel Raheb CEO of Smart Age Solutions
ColumnistsMar 25, 2025
The Smart Lab: Using Short-Form Videos to Sell More Jewelry

The time to start experimenting with video content is now, writes columnist Emmanuel Raheb.

Pomellato Nudo High Jewelry Campaign
CollectionsMar 24, 2025
Pomellato’s Latest ‘Nudo’ Collections Revamp its Classic Design

From striking high jewelry to miniature fine jewelry, the new chapter continues to highlight gemstones featuring its signature 57-facet cut.

Jamie Singleton, Bill Brace, Rebecca Wooters, Bill Luth
MajorsMar 24, 2025
4 Top Executives to Depart Signet Jewelers Amid Turnaround

The jewelry giant is reducing its senior leadership by 30 percent as part of its new turnaround strategy.

Sothebys Watchcheck
WatchesMar 24, 2025
Sotheby's Now Offers Watch Repair Services

The auction house's partnership with online watch servicing platform WatchCheck makes repairs convenient and accessible, it said.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy