Surveys

Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season

SurveysNov 03, 2023

Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season

Sales will increase compared with last year, though the rate of growth is expected to slow.

Holiday presents
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to grow 3 to 4 percent year-over-year, according to its annual forecast, released Thursday.
Washington—The National Retail Federation is forecasting a merry and bright holiday season, though it predicts spending won’t grow as robustly as it has in recent years.

Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.

The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.

However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.

NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.

“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.

Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.

“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.

“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.

“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”

As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.

To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.

As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.

A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.

“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”— Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation 

During the call, Shay and Kleinhenz also shed light on why consumer spending is up despite the fact that consumer confidence is down.

“This disconnect has been going on all year where consumer confidence and sentiment have been at very low levels that don’t seem consistent with what consumers are doing,” said Kleinhenz.

Though consumers are still positive about their household finances and job security, he said, inflation is taking its toll on their outlooks.

“We were in a period of time for almost 10 years where there was zero inflation. I think there are many households, probably young households, that have no recollection of what it was like.” 

He also added that people’s political views can inform how they view the economy’s performance.

If, for example, the party you identify with is in power, you may view the economy more favorably, while those in the opposing party may take a more negative view.

Shay echoed Kleinhenz’s take on the impact of inflation.

“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”

He said consumers still will go out and spend money if they have jobs and receive pay increases.

“As long as the job market is as strong as it is, the actions are going to continue to power the economy,” said Shay.

Though some headwinds retailers and shoppers alike can foresee, there may be some “unpredictable impacts” from winter weather on the way.

“This year, holiday retail spending may experience residual effects from El Niño, depending on the strength and persistence of the weather phenomena,” NRF noted.

NRF will conduct a separate survey about the holiday weekend forecast that will include Black Friday sales predictions.

The Latest

Saks on Amazon flagship window
MajorsMay 16, 2025
Saks Fifth Avenue, Amazon Partner on Luxury Online Storefront

Plus, parent company Saks Global announces plans to cut ties with up to 600 vendors.

Graphic for My Next Question webinar with guest Peter Smith
Recorded WebinarsMay 16, 2025
Watch: Physical Retail Is Not Dead

Peter Smith joined Michelle Graff to chat about the state of brick-and-mortar stores and share a few book and podcast recommendations.

Tejen Candy Bowl Torque Necklace
CollectionsMay 16, 2025
Piece of the Week: Tejen’s ‘Candy Bowl’ Torque Necklace

The necklace features a candy-colored Australian white opal in 18-karat Fairmined gold, as the brand was named a Fairmined ambassador.

antique_Vegas_2024_by_headshot_stories_9454.jpg
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the Globe

Gain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.

1 Camilla Dietz Bergeron.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 15, 2025
Treasure Hunting at the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry and Watch Show

Sponsored by the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry and Watch Show

Weekly QuizMay 15, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
The Mediterranean Blue diamond
AuctionsMay 15, 2025
'The Mediterranean Blue' Diamond Sells for $21M at Sotheby’s

A private American collector purchased the 10-carat fancy vivid blue diamond.

Jessica McCormack Fruit Salad Campaign Imagery
CollectionsMay 15, 2025
Jessica McCormack’s ‘Fruit Salad’ Collection Is Fresh for Summer

The designer has taken the appeal of freshly picked fruit and channeled it into a capsule collection of earrings, necklaces, and pendants.

Supplier Spotlight -Recorded-Webinar.png
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest Addition

Supplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA

Stock image of diamonds
SourcingMay 15, 2025
Tariffs Take Toll on India’s Gem and Jewelry Industry in April

The country’s gem and jewelry exports fell 5 percent year-over-year last month, while imports declined 18 percent.

Disability advocate Catarina Rivera, JVC ADA compliance guide, circle of hands wearing jewelry
Policies & IssuesMay 15, 2025
State of Retail: How to Better Serve Customers With Disabilities

Around 54 million Americans and counting live with a disability. Here’s how to make your jewelry store and website more accessible.

Sekou Andrews
Events & AwardsMay 15, 2025
Poet Sekou Andrews to Give Closing Keynote at Converge

The event is also accepting poster submissions now through June 16.

Pope Francis
Policies & IssuesMay 14, 2025
Here’s What Happened to Pope Francis’ Ring

Before Pope Leo XIV was elected, a centuries-old procedure regarding the late pontiff’s ring was followed.

1998 Cosmograph Daytona, Ref.16516 Rolex
AuctionsMay 14, 2025
Custom Rolex Pulled From Sotheby’s Sale

The one-of-a-kind platinum Rolex Cosmograph Daytona was estimated to fetch up to $1.7 million.

Jeweler Constance Polamalu at Bloomstone, a store that specializes in lab-grown diamonds
Lab-GrownMay 14, 2025
State of Diamonds: What’s Next for Lab-Grown Diamonds?

While the product has entrenched itself in the market, retailers and consultants are assessing the next phase of the category’s development.

Surveillance footage Tiffany & Co. Seattle robbery
CrimeMay 14, 2025
Seattle Detectives Seek Public’s Help in Tiffany & Co. Robberies

The police are trying to identify the man suspected of robbing two Tiffany & Co. locations in the area.

Jeff Corey, new chairperson of the board for the Jewelers Board of Trade
MajorsMay 14, 2025
Jeff Corey Elected Chair of JBT Board

The well-known Maine jeweler takes over for Brian Fleming and will serve a one-year term.

Foundrae Ingot Pendant
Policies & IssuesMay 14, 2025
Foundrae Donates $11K to Ethical Metalsmiths

The donation was the result of the brand’s annual Earth Day Ingot event.

Eiseman Jewels ribbon cutting ceremony
IndependentsMay 13, 2025
Eiseman Jewels’ Renovated Dallas Store Is Bigger and Better

Located in NorthPark Center, the revamped store is nearly 2,000 square feet larger and includes the first Tudor boutique in Dallas.

Diamond Council of America
MajorsMay 13, 2025
DCA Announces New Learning Platform, Course Updates

The nonprofit has made updates to the content in its beginner and advanced jewelry sales courses.

Malyia McNaughton and Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez
MajorsMay 13, 2025
BIJC Launches New Education Fund

BIJC President Malyia McNaughton will shift roles to lead the new foundation, and Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez will succeed her as president.

Harwell Godfrey Snake Giza Ring, Foundrae Mind, Body Soul Story Necklace, Tiffany & Co. Tiffany Titan By Pharrell Williams Bracelet
TrendsMay 13, 2025
State of Jewelry Design: The Top 10 Jewelry Trends of the Past Decade

As a nod to the theme of JCK Las Vegas 2025, “Decades,” National Jeweler took a look back at the top 10 jewelry trends of the past 10 years.

Lightbox’s Reminiscence Poet earrings in 14-karat white gold with lab-grown diamonds
Lab-GrownMay 12, 2025
Lightbox to Go Dark by Summer, De Beers Says

The company plans to halt all consumer-facing activity this summer, while Lightbox factory operations will cease by the end of the year.

Stock image of shipping containers
Policies & IssuesMay 12, 2025
Tariffs on Chinese Imports Temporarily Slashed as U.S.-China Reach Deal

Following weekend negotiations, the tax on Chinese goods imported into the United States will drop by 115 percent for the next 90 days.

Artists’ Jewelry: From Cubism to Pop, the Diane Venet Collection
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
Jewelry By Picasso, Dalí on Display at Florida Art Museum

“Artists’ Jewelry: From Cubism to Pop, the Diane Venet Collection” is on view at the Norton Museum of Art through October.

2025 CASE Award Submission Graphic
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
CASE Awards Now Accepting Entries For 2025

The deadline to submit is June 16.

Lugano Diamonds store in Greenwich, Connecticut
IndependentsMay 09, 2025
Lugano Diamonds CEO Resigns Amid Internal Investigation

Moti Ferder stepped down Wednesday and will not receive any severance pay, parent company Compass Diversified said.

Coeur Percé Scapular Necklace and Love Baby Locket
CollectionsMay 09, 2025
Pieces of the Week: Marie Lichtenberg’s Collaborations for Mother’s Day

Lichtenberg partnered with luxury platform Mytheresa on two designs honoring the connection between mothers and daughters.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy