Surveys

Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season

SurveysNov 03, 2023

Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season

Sales will increase compared with last year, though the rate of growth is expected to slow.

Holiday presents
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to grow 3 to 4 percent year-over-year, according to its annual forecast, released Thursday.
Washington—The National Retail Federation is forecasting a merry and bright holiday season, though it predicts spending won’t grow as robustly as it has in recent years.

Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.

The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.

However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.

NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.

“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.

Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.

“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.

“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.

“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”

As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.

To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.

As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.

A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.

“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”— Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation 

During the call, Shay and Kleinhenz also shed light on why consumer spending is up despite the fact that consumer confidence is down.

“This disconnect has been going on all year where consumer confidence and sentiment have been at very low levels that don’t seem consistent with what consumers are doing,” said Kleinhenz.

Though consumers are still positive about their household finances and job security, he said, inflation is taking its toll on their outlooks.

“We were in a period of time for almost 10 years where there was zero inflation. I think there are many households, probably young households, that have no recollection of what it was like.” 

He also added that people’s political views can inform how they view the economy’s performance.

If, for example, the party you identify with is in power, you may view the economy more favorably, while those in the opposing party may take a more negative view.

Shay echoed Kleinhenz’s take on the impact of inflation.

“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”

He said consumers still will go out and spend money if they have jobs and receive pay increases.

“As long as the job market is as strong as it is, the actions are going to continue to power the economy,” said Shay.

Though some headwinds retailers and shoppers alike can foresee, there may be some “unpredictable impacts” from winter weather on the way.

“This year, holiday retail spending may experience residual effects from El Niño, depending on the strength and persistence of the weather phenomena,” NRF noted.

NRF will conduct a separate survey about the holiday weekend forecast that will include Black Friday sales predictions.

The Latest

Hill Management Group
Events & AwardsOct 27, 2025
Hill Management Group Hired to Help Atlanta Jewelry Show

Hill Management Group will oversee, market, and produce next year’s spring show.

Marie Louise’s emerald necklace and earrings stolen in the heist at the Louvre Museum
CrimeOct 27, 2025
Arrests Made in Louvre Jewel Heist

One of the individuals was apprehended at the airport as he was trying to flee the country.

Holiday shoppers in Target
MajorsOct 27, 2025
Target to Cut 1,800 Corporate Jobs

The retailer, which has faced struggling sales in recent quarters, is looking to streamline its operations.

DEBEERS_DAY4_DSC_1023-01_1872x1052.jpg
Brought to you by
DESERT DIAMONDS: The Newest Trend in Natural Diamond Jewelry

From sunlit whites to smoky whiskeys, introduce your clients to extraordinary diamonds in colors as unique as their love.

Bonhams New Bond Street London flagship
AuctionsOct 24, 2025
Bonhams Under New Ownership, Top Executives Replaced

London-based investment firm Pemberton Asset Management acquired the auction house for an undisclosed amount.

Weekly QuizOct 16, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
De Beers Diamond View Zoom machine with monitor
GradingOct 24, 2025
DMIA to Hold Diamond Testing Instrument Demo

The workshop will give attendees the chance to try out and ask questions about three different diamond verification instruments.

Two brooches stolen in the October 2025 heist at the Louvre Museum in Paris
CrimeOct 24, 2025
Video Emerges of Louvre Jewelry Robbers Fleeing the Scene

The footage shows two of the jewelry heist suspects descending from the second floor of the museum and then escaping via scooter.

BTYB10.25_Header.jpg
Brought to you by
Are Earrings an Overlooked Category? What Retailers Need to Know Now

As the holiday season quickly approaches, consider stocking one category that sometimes gets overlooked: earrings.

Wyld Box Jewelry Ray of Light Large Drop Earrings
CollectionsOct 24, 2025
Piece of the Week: Wyld Box Jewelry’s ‘Ray of Light’ Earrings

Founder and designer Rosanna Fiedler looked to a vintage Cartier clutch when designing the sunlight-inspired drop earrings.

Tiffany & Co. Bird on a Rock pendant
FinancialsOct 23, 2025
Jewelry Sales Resilient Despite Struggles at LVMH, Kering

The luxury conglomerates faced a challenging Q3 amid geopolitical and economic tensions.

Cullinan Diamond Mine plant
SourcingOct 23, 2025
Petra Diamonds Turns to Shareholders to Raise Capital

The struggling diamond mining company, which owns the historic Cullinan mine, has launched a rights issue to raise about $25 million.

Million Dollar Hip Hop Watches by Leon Schäfers, Jeanette Lang, Tobias Kargoll
WatchesOct 23, 2025
‘Million Dollar Hip Hop Watches’ Recounts Watch History

The book details the journey of watches as symbols of hard-earned success in hip-hop for artists like 2Pac, Jay-Z, and more.

Alexis Vourvoulis
AuctionsOct 23, 2025
Freeman’s | Hindman Names New VP, Senior Specialist for Jewelry & Watches

Alexis Vourvoulis, who most recently worked at Tiffany & Co., brings more than two decades of jewelry experience to her new role.

Taylor Swift engagement ring Greenwich St
TrendsOct 22, 2025
The Taylor Swift Effect: Antique Diamonds Edition

The superstar’s August engagement put the stamp of approval on an already hot engagement ring trend.

Rahaminov Diamonds Emerald-Cut Diamond Bracelet
TrendsOct 22, 2025
Don’t Forget These Diamond Jewelry Trends When Stocking for the Holidays

Retailers should offer classic styles with a twist that are a perfect fit for layered looks, experts say.

Fancy vivid purplish pink diamond
AuctionsOct 22, 2025
Pink Diamond, Vanderbilt Jewels to Headline Phillips’ Geneva Auction

The nearly 7-carat fancy vivid purplish pink diamond could sell for around $9 million.

“Storied Diamond Desert Sands of Eternity” engagement ring and wedding band
SourcingOct 22, 2025
In ‘Storied Diamond,’ Jared Jewelers Is Emphasizing the Journey

The retailer’s new collection of engagement rings and fashion jewelry is set with natural diamonds that are traceable via blockchain.

Tiffany & Co. Bird on a Rock by Tiffany High Jewelry Lariat
CollectionsOct 22, 2025
Tiffany & Co.’s ‘Bird on a Rock’ Finds New Perch

Chief Artistic Officer Nathalie Verdeille has reimagined the iconic design in both figurative and abstract creations.

Jewelers for Children Halloween contest
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
JFC Kicks Off Halloween Costume Challenge

Five dollars buys one vote toward an industry professional you want to see dressed up as a hero, or a villain, this Halloween.

Hillsborough show
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
Hillsborough Antique Show Gets New Owner

Recently acquired by KIL Promotions, the November edition of the public show in San Mateo, California, will be held Nov. 7-9.

Bicolor pink and colorless diamond
GradingOct 21, 2025
GIA Examines Rare Bicolor Pink Diamond

The stone’s two zones, one pink and one colorless, may have formed at two different times, the lab said.

Pomellato Rodeo Drive Flagship Exterior
MajorsOct 21, 2025
Pomellato Brings ‘Global Attitude’ to Rodeo Drive Flagship

Hollywood glamour meets Milanese sophistication in the design of Pomellato’s new store in Beverly Hills, California.

Grown Brilliance NYC Flagship Exterior
Lab-GrownOct 21, 2025
Grown Brilliance Opens First Flagship

The New York City store showcases a chandelier with 1,500 carats of lab-grown diamonds designed by an FIT student.

Douriean Fletcher Messenger Collection
Events & AwardsOct 21, 2025
‘Douriean Fletcher: Jewelry of the Afrofuture’ Opens at MAD

The Museum of Arts and Design's new exhibition features 75 pieces by the designer, best known for her work in the “Black Panther” films.

Sothebys the glowing rose pink diamond
AuctionsOct 20, 2025
Sotheby's To Auction 10-Carat Vivid Pink Diamond

Making its auction debut, "The Glowing Rose" is expected to fetch $20 million at the November jewelry sale in Geneva.

2025_Gemfields logo.jpg
SourcingOct 20, 2025
2 Mozambique Police Officers Killed at Gemfields’ Ruby Mine

They were attacked on Oct. 15, as approximately 40 miners without licenses marched on the mine’s gate.

Empress Eugénie’s pearl and diamond tiara
CrimeOct 20, 2025
See the ‘Priceless’ Jewels Stolen During Daytime Heist at the Louvre

It took the masked thieves less than 10 minutes to steal eight irreplaceable jewels from two display cases in the museum’s Apollo Gallery.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy