EditorsNov 27, 2023
10 Tips for Selling Diamonds This Holiday SeasonSurveysNov 03, 2023
Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season
Sales will increase compared with last year, though the rate of growth is expected to slow.
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to grow 3 to 4 percent year-over-year, according to its annual forecast, released Thursday.
Washington—The National Retail Federation is forecasting a merry and bright holiday season, though it predicts spending won’t grow as robustly as it has in recent years.
Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.
The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.
However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.
“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.
Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.
“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.
“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.
“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”
As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.
To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.
As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.
A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.
Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.
The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.
However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.
“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.
Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.
“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.
“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.
“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”
As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.
To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.
As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.
A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.
“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”— Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation
During the call, Shay and Kleinhenz also shed light on why consumer spending is up despite the fact that consumer confidence is down.
“This disconnect has been going on all year where consumer confidence and sentiment have been at very low levels that don’t seem consistent with what consumers are doing,” said Kleinhenz.
Though consumers are still positive about their household finances and job security, he said, inflation is taking its toll on their outlooks.
“We were in a period of time for almost 10 years where there was zero inflation. I think there are many households, probably young households, that have no recollection of what it was like.”
He also added that people’s political views can inform how they view the economy’s performance.
If, for example, the party you identify with is in power, you may view the economy more favorably, while those in the opposing party may take a more negative view.
Shay echoed Kleinhenz’s take on the impact of inflation.
“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”
He said consumers still will go out and spend money if they have jobs and receive pay increases.
“As long as the job market is as strong as it is, the actions are going to continue to power the economy,” said Shay.
Though some headwinds retailers and shoppers alike can foresee, there may be some “unpredictable impacts” from winter weather on the way.
“This year, holiday retail spending may experience residual effects from El Niño, depending on the strength and persistence of the weather phenomena,” NRF noted.
NRF will conduct a separate survey about the holiday weekend forecast that will include Black Friday sales predictions.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
Events & AwardsOct 30, 2026
Illuminating Carved Paraiba Pendant, Suite of Moonstones Wow at Spectrum AwardsSpectrum’s “Best of Show” honors went to a 101-carat Paraiba carved to look like Medusa that has a magnet-activated LED light.
TrendsOct 30, 2026
Edina Kiss’ Pendants Say ‘Eye’m Watching You’Our Halloween Pieces of the Week are four “Eye” pendants, each set with colorful gemstones.
MajorsOct 30, 2026
The RealReal Hires Former eBay Exec as New Chief Merchandising OfficerAlexis Hoopes expanded eBay’s “Authenticity Guarantee” program during her tenure.
Brought to you by
A Diamond Is Forever Launches 2026 Holiday Campaign Championing Natural DiamondsA Diamond Is Forever's holiday campaign reimagines natural diamond icons for a new generation celebrating individuality.
WatchesOct 29, 2026
Bucherer Opens Rolex Boutique in Washington StateThe Rolex-owned retailer’s new 4,700-square-foot store’s façade honors the Pacific Northwest’s evergreen forests.
Weekly QuizOct 29, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TrendsOct 29, 2026
Amanda's Style File: All Treats, No Tricks Get into the Halloween spirit with this roundup of 13 spooky jewels.
MajorsOct 29, 2026
Gesswein Hires Longtime Bench Jeweler, Educator Ann CahoonCahoon was appointed strategic account and educational program manager at Gesswein, which recently joined Continental Buying Group.
Brought to you by
Open an Account, Get $50 Off Your First Order. No Code Needed.Built on Relationships. Refined by Craft.
MajorsOct 29, 2026
Amanda Seyfried Stars In Tiffany & Co.’s Holiday CampaignTiffany & Co.’s latest ambassador makes her debut in its “Love Is a Gift” holiday campaign.
EditorsOct 28, 2026
These Wicked Jewels Will Cast a Spell on YouFor her annual Halloween story, Senior Editor Lenore Fedow highlights bewitching jewels fit for a witch that go from day to unholy night.
CrimeOct 28, 2026
Man In Florida Who Swallowed Tiffany & Co. Earrings ConvictedJaythan Gilder was found guilty of robbery and grand theft after stealing and then ingesting nearly $800,000 worth of Tiffany & Co. jewelry.
MajorsOct 28, 2026
Stuller’s Holiday Campaign Lets the ‘Magic of the Moment’ ShineThe holiday campaign includes key jewelry trends, a curated holiday gift guide, and resources to help jewelers prepare for holiday shoppers.
SourcingOct 27, 2026
De Beers Celebrates the Holidays With New ‘Desert Diamonds’ CampaignThe “Icons” holiday campaign spotlights four classic diamond jewelry styles reimagined in “Desert Diamond” tones.
IndependentsOct 27, 2026
Solomon Brothers Acquires Mervis Diamond ImportersSolomon Brothers, which has three stores in the Metro Atlanta area, said it may continue to acquire other independent jewelers.
IndependentsOct 27, 2026
Gabriel & Co. Supports Charity Partner DKMS With Gala, New JewelsThe fine jewelry brand raised $2.3 million at its annual gala that supports the nonprofit’s fight against blood cancer and blood disorders.
Events & AwardsOct 27, 2026
JFC Announces 2027 ‘Facets’ HonoreesThe annual fundraising event is slated for June 6, 2027, at The Venetian Resort in Las Vegas.
CollectionsOct 26, 2026
Bliss Lau’s ‘Vantage’ Point Is the Hawaiian HorizonIn her “Vantage” collection, Lau explores heritage, identity, and inner strength through designs featuring blue-green Guatemalan jade.
MajorsOct 26, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Takes Consumers Behind the ScenesThe jeweler gave the public backstage tours of its flagship store and its design and innovation workshop as part of LVMH’s open house.
Events & AwardsOct 26, 2026
Support JFC’s ‘Monster Mash Challenge,’ If You DareVote for which jewelry professional should dress up as a monster to support Jewelers for Children’s annual Halloween fundraiser.
MajorsOct 23, 2026
PGI USA Set to Close at Year’s EndThe closure is part of a global restructuring that also includes PGI winding down its operations in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
SourcingOct 23, 2026
Rachel Chalchinsky’s ‘Survivor Tribute’ RingThe ring, our Piece of the Week, was designed by eight-year breast cancer survivor Rachel Chalchinsky of Color Source Gems.
TechnologyOct 23, 2026
JA Unveils New Website, LogoThe website offers enhanced member benefit access, industry directories, educational resources, a job board, and access to the MJSA Journal.
FinancialsOct 23, 2026
Kering’s Jewelry Sales Up Double Digits in Q3Boucheron and Pomellato had a strong third quarter, with Kering looking at jewelry as an increasingly important part of its portfolio.
CrimeOct 22, 2026
Jeweler Shot and Killed in His Suburban Cincinnati Store Tara Sinchuri was the owner of Everest Jewels in Fairfield, Ohio, and a father of three. He was found dead in his store on Tuesday.
MajorsOct 22, 2026
Neiman Marcus Has Gifts for the Jewelry Lover Who Has EverythingBespoke experiences from Buccellati and Verdura are on the retailer’s 2026 “Fantasy Gifts” list.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2026
JIS Fall 2026 Reports Record-Breaking Attendance The number of participants at the fall show was up 12 percent.
CollectionsOct 22, 2026
Billie Eilish, Finneas Co-Design Collection for John HardyThe Academy and Grammy award-winning siblings have collaborated with John Hardy on a new jewelry line inspired by their personal style.
