Here’s What NRF Is Forecasting for the Holiday Season
Sales will increase compared with last year, though the rate of growth is expected to slow.

Holiday spending is expected to reach record levels in 2023, with year-over-year growth of 3 to 4 percent pushing the sales total to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, the organization announced during its annual holiday sales forecast media call.
The year-over-year growth rate is expected to be lower than in recent years, with 2022 holiday sales up 5 percent, 2021 sales up 13 percent, and 2020 sales up 9 percent.
However, the 2023 spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019, said NRF, adding that trillions of dollars in stimulus sparked “unprecedented” rates of retail spending from 2020 to 2022.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay opened the holiday sales call on a positive note.
“In spite of the uncertainty of the economy and the challenges households are facing, we’ve seen strength and resilience across the consumer sector,” he said.
Consumers are grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and higher gas prices, yet they’ve continued to spend.
“Consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70 percent of our economic activity, has kept the economic expansion on a steady and solid path forward,” said Shay.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the rise in spending on services.
“For all that the consumer has kept the economy afloat, the composition of spending from goods to services will also define holiday sales trends,” he said in a press release.
“Service spending growth is strong and is growing faster than goods spending. The amount of spending on services is back in line with pre-pandemic trends.”
As for where consumers will shop, online will remain a popular option. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7 and 9 percent to $273.7 billion to $278.8 billion, up from $255.8 billion last year.
To meet the holiday demand, retailers are expected to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.
As holiday shopping begins earlier, a trend in recent years, some of this hiring may have been pulled into October, noted NRF.
A recent NRF holiday survey found that 43 percent of holiday shoppers planned to make purchases before November.
“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”— Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation
During the call, Shay and Kleinhenz also shed light on why consumer spending is up despite the fact that consumer confidence is down.
“This disconnect has been going on all year where consumer confidence and sentiment have been at very low levels that don’t seem consistent with what consumers are doing,” said Kleinhenz.
Though consumers are still positive about their household finances and job security, he said, inflation is taking its toll on their outlooks.
“We were in a period of time for almost 10 years where there was zero inflation. I think there are many households, probably young households, that have no recollection of what it was like.”
He also added that people’s political views can inform how they view the economy’s performance.
If, for example, the party you identify with is in power, you may view the economy more favorably, while those in the opposing party may take a more negative view.
Shay echoed Kleinhenz’s take on the impact of inflation.
“We see this every year in the work we do looking at consumer behavior. There are consumer attitudes and then there are consumer actions, and inflation impacts their attitudes.”
He said consumers still will go out and spend money if they have jobs and receive pay increases.
“As long as the job market is as strong as it is, the actions are going to continue to power the economy,” said Shay.
Though some headwinds retailers and shoppers alike can foresee, there may be some “unpredictable impacts” from winter weather on the way.
“This year, holiday retail spending may experience residual effects from El Niño, depending on the strength and persistence of the weather phenomena,” NRF noted.
NRF will conduct a separate survey about the holiday weekend forecast that will include Black Friday sales predictions.
The Latest

Anne Hathaway was seen wearing the toggle necklace three times while filming scenes for “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”

Jewellery & Gem World Hong Kong is scheduled for Sept. 15 to 21, and buyer pre-registration will be available until Sept. 7.

Renovations at Tiffany & Co. stores ate into profits in the company’s watch and jewelry division.

As a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.

Mark and Candy Udell of London Jewelers will receive the honor at the 24th annual Gem Awards next March.


While struggles continue at the mining and trading end of the pipeline, consumer demand for diamond jewelry is holding steady.

The “Fantasia” jewelry collection turns the intaglio animals from her “Close Encounters” collection into 3D characters.

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.

The special Classic Avi Chronograph 42 with an Eagles-green dial is limited to 59 pieces, a nod to the Super Bowl Philadelphia just won.

JSA has received reports of mobs swarming jewelry stores, driving cars into the storefront or smashing through the windows.

The “Kashmir” collection features centuries-old craft techniques made in collaboration with the region’s master papier-mâché artisans.

Creative Director Erica Bianchini shared why the jeweler is looking to expand into the U.S. and how it’s putting Canadian craftsmanship on the map.

Two Los Angeles Fire Department stations plan to use the donations to upgrade their equipment and tools.

Next week, the auction house will kick off a selling exhibition of jewelry by British artist Hannah Martin and Coldplay’s Guy Berryman.

“Stolen: Heist of the Century” is based on “Flawless,” the book about the middle-of-the-night theft, and will debut on Netflix in August.

Emmanuel Raheb shares the top five gifting moments outside of major holidays that jewelers should build marketing campaigns around.

The wholesale trade show’s Luxury Lifestyle section will showcase established and emerging jewelry designers.

As demand for custom jewelry grows, the company is expanding its services to support retailers.

The mid-year conference for jewelry and watch appraisers is slated for Aug. 9 to 10 on Zoom.

Graduated stones make for elevated tennis-style pieces and dramatic statement necklaces.

Nominations in the categories of Jewelry Design, Media Excellence, and Retail Innovation will be accepted through July 30.

He retired last month after 28 years traveling the world to source the very best gemstones for his family’s jewelry business, Oscar Heyman.

The charm necklace features six nautical charms of shells and coral that founder Christina Puchi collected on Florida’s beaches.

The organization elected its youngest vice president as it looks to draw in fresh talent.

Campbell joins the company as vice president of business development while Liebler is the new vice president of operations.

The medals feature a split-texture design highlighting the Games’ first time being hosted by two cities and the athletes’ journeys.

Sponsored by The INSTORE Jewelry Show 2025