SurveysOct 23, 2023
Shoppers to Spend More on Winter Holidays This Year, Says NRF SurveysNov 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Is Down Yet Shoppers Continue to Spend
The Conference Board’s monthly index that measures how consumers are feeling declined for the third straight month in October.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from 104.3 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline as fears of a recession persisted, though shoppers continued to spend.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell slightly to 75.6 from 76.4 in September.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it first made in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” said the Conference Board.
Peterson noted that two-thirds of consumers said a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October.
“The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes—in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward,” she said.
“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers, at least through the third quarter of this year, continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” she noted.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, for the most part.
Seventeen percent of respondents expected business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in September, but 20 percent expected them to worsen, up from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in October was about the same as it was in September.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was nearly flat at 16 percent while 19 percent expect fewer jobs to be available, also flat month-over-month.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were down while prospects were up slightly.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase (16 percent in October versus 18 percent in September) while 13 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In October, consumers’ views of their families’ current financial situation improved slightly while views of the situation six months from now softened.
The consumer confidence results for November are slated to be released Nov. 28.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
EditorsMay 07, 2024
Q&A: Author Vikki Tobak on the ‘Ice-Cold’ ExhibitionTobak, author of “Ice Cold: A Hip-Hop Jewelry History,” shares how the exhibition came to be, and the pieces people may be surprised to see.
EditorsMay 07, 2024
10 On-Theme Looks from the 2024 Met GalaStars adorned themselves in emeralds, platinum, and myriad bird motifs, writes Associate Editor Natalie Francisco.
IndependentsMay 07, 2024
112-Year-Old New Orleans Business Popping Up in Aspen M.S. Rau is set to open a seasonal gallery in the high-end resort town early next month.
Brought to you by
From Registration to Return: 10 Tips to Protect You Before, During and After a TradeshowTradeshow risks are real. Get tips to protect yourself before, during and after and gain safety and security awareness for your business.
MajorsMay 07, 2024
Richemont Acquires Italian Jeweler VhernierThe branded jewelry market is thriving, said Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert.
Weekly QuizMay 02, 2024
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these seven questions.
CollectionsMay 07, 2024
These ‘Luminaries’ Are Set to Light Up CoutureThe six designers, all participants in the show’s Diversity Action Council mentorship program, will exhibit in Salon 634.
AuctionsMay 07, 2024
Sotheby’s to Auction Sylvester Stallone’s WatchesThe highlight of his collection is the coveted Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime, which could sell for up to $5 million.
Brought to you by
Rio’s Reimagined Podcast: For the Love of JewelersMeet Ben Claus—grand prize winner of For the Love of Jewelers 2023 Fall Design Challenge.
CollectionsMay 07, 2024
Phillip Gavriel Pays Tribute to Venice With New CollectionThe “Venetian Link” series modernizes the classic Veneziana box chain in its bracelets and necklaces.
Events & AwardsMay 07, 2024
JA Now Accepting Applications for New Bench Jeweler ScholarshipThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship will provide tuition assistance to two low-income students.
Policies & IssuesMay 06, 2024
Rolex Files Objection to Hallmark’s New Trademark ApplicationThe Swiss watchmaker said the company’s plans to use a new version of the Hallmark crown on jewelry would confuse consumers.
EditorsMay 06, 2024
Q&A: 8 Questions With Anglo American’s Benny Oeyen The executive talked about the importance of self-purchasers and how fuel cell electric vehicles are going to fuel demand for platinum.
MajorsMay 06, 2024
Malabar Gold & Diamonds Opens 4th U.S. ShowroomThe Indian jeweler’s new store in Naperville, Illinois marks its 350th location, part of its ongoing global expansion plans.
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2024
Ben Bridge Jeweler Accepting Applications for Lonia Tate ScholarshipIt will award a graduating high school student with about $10,000 toward a GIA diploma and an internship with the Seattle-based jeweler.
CrimeMay 03, 2024
Second Suspect Arrested in Murder of Colorado JewelerWheat Ridge, Colorado police took a 50-year-old man into custody Wednesday following a two-month search.
CollectionsMay 03, 2024
A Sneak Peek Into PGI’s Couture Platinum Spotlight ProgramPGI partnered with four new and seven returning designers for its annual platinum capsule collection.
MajorsMay 03, 2024
Kristie Nicolosi Joins WJA Board AgainNicolosi, president and CEO of The Kingswood Company, previously sat on WJA’s board from 2011 to 2018.
CollectionsMay 03, 2024
Piece of the Week: A “Bit of LUV” for the DerbyKarina Brez’s race-ready piece is a sophisticated nod to the horse-rider relationship.
CrimeMay 02, 2024
4 Indicted in Burglary Ring Targeting Indian, South Asian FamiliesThe men are allegedly responsible for stealing millions in jewelry and other valuables in 43 burglaries in 25 towns across Massachusetts.
CollectionsMay 02, 2024
Foundrae Launches ‘Horizon’ Collection“Horizon” invites individuals to explore the limitless possibilities that lie ahead, said the brand.
FinancialsMay 02, 2024
Pandora Raises Guidance After Strong Q1The jeweler credits its recent “Be Love” campaign and ongoing brand revamp for its 17 percent jump in sales.
IndependentsMay 02, 2024
Oklahoma Jeweler Glenn Lewis Dies at 68The co-founder of Lewis Jewelers was also the longtime mayor of the city of Moore.
AuctionsMay 02, 2024
Vintage Baume & Mercier With Ties to Elvis Sells for $7K Elvis Presley gifted this circa 1967 gold and diamond watch to Dodie Marshall, his co-star in “Easy Come, Easy Go.”
TrendsMay 01, 2024
Amanda’s Style File: All Eyes on EmeraldsMay’s birthstone is beloved for its rich green hue and its versatility.
SourcingMay 01, 2024
Opsydia Names New Sales and Marketing Director Jacqui Larsson joins Opsydia with nearly two decades of experience in the industry.
CrimeMay 01, 2024
Grand Jury to Hear Case Against Jeweler Charged in Fatal Shove Following IJO ShowLast month in Dallas, David Walton pushed another jeweler, David Ettinger, who later died.
