SurveysOct 23, 2023
Shoppers to Spend More on Winter Holidays This Year, Says NRF SurveysNov 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Is Down Yet Shoppers Continue to Spend
The Conference Board’s monthly index that measures how consumers are feeling declined for the third straight month in October.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from 104.3 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline as fears of a recession persisted, though shoppers continued to spend.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell slightly to 75.6 from 76.4 in September.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it first made in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” said the Conference Board.
Peterson noted that two-thirds of consumers said a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October.
“The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes—in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward,” she said.
“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers, at least through the third quarter of this year, continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” she noted.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, for the most part.
Seventeen percent of respondents expected business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in September, but 20 percent expected them to worsen, up from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in October was about the same as it was in September.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was nearly flat at 16 percent while 19 percent expect fewer jobs to be available, also flat month-over-month.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were down while prospects were up slightly.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase (16 percent in October versus 18 percent in September) while 13 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In October, consumers’ views of their families’ current financial situation improved slightly while views of the situation six months from now softened.
The consumer confidence results for November are slated to be released Nov. 28.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
SourcingApr 14, 2026
De Beers Expands ‘Desert Diamonds’ Beacon Into BridalThe campaign seeks to reignite desire for natural diamond engagement rings by highlighting the “distinct character” of warm-toned diamonds.
FinancialsApr 14, 2026
LVMH’s Q1 Sales Sink 6% Amid Middle East ConflictPlus, how Saks Global’s bankruptcy affected the luxury giant’s first quarter.
SourcingApr 14, 2026
International Jade Summit to Return to MontereyPresented by Mason-Kay Jade, the summit, in its second year, will again be held during the Monterey Bay Jade Festival.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
Events & AwardsApr 14, 2026
CBG Releases Details for Las Vegas ShowThe group has announced its lineup of speakers and a new “Rising Stars” pavilion.
Weekly QuizApr 09, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 13, 2026
Uniform Object’s New Jewelry Collection Centers on the ‘Carbon Form’The “Carbon Form” collection explores the contrast between high and low materials, using rubber cord alongside 18-karat gold and gemstones.
Events & AwardsApr 13, 2026
JA Accepting 2026 Impact Initiative ApplicationsThe program provides essential funding to organizations for projects that enhance the jewelry industry.
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
Events & AwardsApr 13, 2026
Couture Announces New Show in MiamiThe jewelry trade show is launching its first open-to-the-public event in Coconut Grove this November.
CrimeApr 13, 2026
JSA Offers Reward in Oregon Jewelry Store Armed RobberyJSA is seeking information about the gunpoint robbery of a Kay Jewelers location in Oregon’s Washington Square Mall.
WatchesApr 10, 2026
These Watches Have Increased in Value the Most Since 2018, Says Chrono24The top-performing watch models may be surprising, with Rolex and several popular pandemic-era picks notably absent from the top 20.
CollectionsApr 10, 2026
Ophelia Eve’s Toggle Pendant Holds Your SecretsThe “Scroll” toggle pendant, our Piece of the Week, opens to reveal a hidden message, mantra, or love letter written on washi paper.
ColumnistsApr 09, 2026
Jewelry Demand Isn’t Stronger, Prices Are Just Higher Jewelers who misinterpret the state of the jewelry market risk employing the wrong retail strategy, cautions columnist Sherry Smith.
MajorsApr 09, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Promotes Nathalie Verdeille to SVP, Chief Artistic OfficerIn her newly expanded role, she will continue to oversee the jewelry category, as well as watches, home, and accessories.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Jacob & Co. Rolls Out Its Sequel to ‘The Godfather’ Musical Watch“The Godfather II” watch plays two melodies from the mob film’s score, “The Godfather’s Waltz” and “The Godfather Love Theme.”
Events & AwardsApr 09, 2026
JCK Announces Jesse Itzler as 2026 Keynote SpeakerOrganizers have also introduced the new JCK Talks Signature Series, as well as an offering of watch-focused workshops and lectures.
SourcingApr 09, 2026
AGA To Honor ‘Quiet Leadership’ With New AwardThe Alan Hodgkinson Medal recognizes gemologists who are consistently generous with their time and expertise.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Oris Names New CEO, CFOThe Swiss watchmaker is changing up its executive leadership team as part of a restructuring.
CollectionsApr 08, 2026
Hearts On Fire Celebrates 30 Years By Asking a QuestionThe “What’s Your Signature?” campaign invites women to think about how they see themselves.
SourcingApr 08, 2026
Sale of 42-Carat Blue Diamond Gives Petra a Boost in Q3The big diamond’s sale added to the company’s revenue though the market remains “challenging” overall, particularly for smaller goods.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
AGS Confluence Returns with AI, Sustainability SessionsRob Bates of The Jewelry Wire will also moderate a panel on the state of the jewelry industry during the virtual event.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
TJS to Honor 2 Longtime Former Stuller EmployeesThe Jewelry Symposium will honor two industry veterans with lifetime achievement awards at its upcoming May event.
TrendsApr 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: April’s Brilliant Birthstone With their durability, brilliance, and beauty, diamonds are the perfect stone for everyday birthstone jewelry.
MajorsApr 07, 2026
QVC Group’s Latest Filing Calls Its Future Into QuestionThe retailer failed to file its annual report on time and said it may issue a going concern warning.
ColumnistsApr 07, 2026
Peter Smith: A Tip to the Post Office on Workplace CultureSmith recounts a recent trip to the post office that included an uncomfortable, embarrassing, and public exchange between two employees.
GradingApr 07, 2026
GIA CFO David Tearle to Retire in June John Cowley, who has more than 30 years of experience, is succeeding Tearle as the lab’s chief financial officer.
CollectionsApr 07, 2026
Nerd Out Over Gemology Geek’s First Jewelry CollectionFounder Erica Silverglide has designed 35 colorful pieces set with fluorescing gemstones for the brand's first finished jewelry offering.
