SurveysOct 23, 2023
Shoppers to Spend More on Winter Holidays This Year, Says NRF SurveysNov 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Is Down Yet Shoppers Continue to Spend
The Conference Board’s monthly index that measures how consumers are feeling declined for the third straight month in October.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from 104.3 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline as fears of a recession persisted, though shoppers continued to spend.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell slightly to 75.6 from 76.4 in September.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it first made in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” said the Conference Board.
Peterson noted that two-thirds of consumers said a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October.
“The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes—in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward,” she said.
“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers, at least through the third quarter of this year, continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” she noted.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, for the most part.
Seventeen percent of respondents expected business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in September, but 20 percent expected them to worsen, up from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in October was about the same as it was in September.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was nearly flat at 16 percent while 19 percent expect fewer jobs to be available, also flat month-over-month.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were down while prospects were up slightly.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase (16 percent in October versus 18 percent in September) while 13 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In October, consumers’ views of their families’ current financial situation improved slightly while views of the situation six months from now softened.
The consumer confidence results for November are slated to be released Nov. 28.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsOct 16, 2026
Christina Puchi’s Earrings Hold the UniverseOur Piece of the Week gathers the planets, represented by a variety of colored gemstones, in a pair of 14-karat yellow gold earrings.
IndependentsOct 16, 2026
Reeds Jewelers Expands, Relocates FlagshipThe New York-based jeweler is moving its Amherst flagship store to a larger location in nearby Snyder.
MajorsOct 16, 2026
Katy Chen Appointed Executive Vice President of Graff USA Chen, who worked at Cartier and Tiffany & Co., will lead retail sales and operations for the luxury jeweler’s 11 U.S. stores.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
IndependentsOct 15, 2026
Retailer Hall of Fame 2026: Amy and Elise Greenberg For 40 years, sisters Amy and Elise Greenberg have helmed their 126-year-old family business, leading with appreciation and integrity.
Weekly QuizOct 15, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
ColumnistsOct 15, 2026
Peter Smith: What Is the Culture REP?It’s a term Smith coined and felt compelled to share following a bad experience with an aborted flight and an unfeeling flight attendant.
WatchesOct 15, 2026
Stephanie Gottlieb’s New Movado Watches Are Made for Your Wrist StackMovado teamed up with the New York-based fine jewelry designer on a new collection of Movado Museum Velura watches.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
SourcingOct 15, 2026
Signet Jewelers, Richemont May Join Bidder for De Beers, Report SaysThe two companies are reportedly in talks to join the Global Diamond Consortium, led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, as per Bloomberg.
CollectionsOct 15, 2026
Wolf x Marla Aaron's New Jewelry Box Is for Some (Not All) of Your ThingsThe “Some of the Things” box follows the two larger “Everything” box designs with the look and function of antique sewing and toolboxes.
IndependentsOct 14, 2026
Retailer Hall of Fame 2026: Coleman and Mitchell ClarkFourth-generation jewelers Coleman and Mitchell Clark exemplify the best qualities of their predecessors: humility, modesty, and confidence.
SourcingOct 14, 2026
Manuel Marcial de Gomar, ‘The Emerald Whisperer,’ Dies at 90The gem hunter, whose 70-year career was defined by adventure and exploration, is remembered for his steadfast faith and sense of wonder.
FinancialsOct 14, 2026
LVMH’s Jewelry Brands Turn in ‘Very Good’ Performance in Q3 Tiffany & Co. continued its full-scale store renovation project while Bulgari’s high jewelry collection generated “record-breaking revenue.”
Events & AwardsOct 14, 2026
Chicago Responsible Jewelry Conference Releases 2026 ProgramThis year’s sessions feature leading voices from human rights, legal, and conservation organizations.
MajorsOct 13, 2026
David Webb Owner Purchases Lugano JewelryThe high-end jewelry retailer was sold to private investment firm Middle West Partners and a group of longtime clients.
Lab-GrownOct 13, 2026
Stephanie Gottlieb Takes Lab-Grown Diamond Collection WholesaleThe jewelry designer has partnered with Sofer Jewelry to distribute her 85-piece lab-grown diamond collection.
IndependentsOct 13, 2026
Retailer Hall of Fame 2026: Sean DunnDunn, this year’s Single-Store Independent inductee, is passionate about innovation and telling the story of natural diamonds.
AuctionsOct 13, 2026
Christie's Geneva To Auction 'Bulgari Pink' DiamondThe 24-carat fancy intense pink diamond ring could fetch up to $18 million at the November sale.
IndependentsOct 13, 2026
Greenwich St. Jewelers’ New Candle Smells Like HomeThe “Island Jewel” candle honors New York City and Puerto Rico and raises money for the island’s water relief efforts.
TechnologyOct 13, 2026
GemFind Is a New JA Member Benefit Partner The partnership will give JA members access to preferred pricing, exclusive benefits, technology solutions, education, and resources.
CollectionsOct 09, 2026
Elisa Solomon Collabs With Serendipity 3 on ‘Frozen Hot Chocolate’ CharmThe charm, our Piece of the Week, features brown diamond frozen hot chocolate topped with white diamond whipped cream and a ruby straw.
AuctionsOct 09, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Goes Unsold at UK Jewelry Auction The top lot of Elmwood’s recent fine jewelry sale in London was a 1.84-carat, D color Tiffany & Co. solitaire diamond ring.
WatchesOct 09, 2026
Movado to Sell Majority Stake in Ebel for $66.5MThe watch company agreed to sell a 95 percent interest to a group comprised of F.P. Journe, Chanel, and Swiss watch exec Pierre Jacques.
Policies & IssuesOct 08, 2026
Third Wave of IEEPA Tariff Refunds Begins This round of tariff refunds is for importers that have sued over IEEPA tariffs in the Court of International Trade and won.
CollectionsOct 08, 2026
Brent Neale’s New Collection Goes ‘Back to Basics’It revisits the brand’s most requested silhouettes, from "Pillow"-set necklaces and bracelets to "Signature"-set rings and earrings.
SourcingOct 08, 2026
Ethical Gem Fair Heads Back to BrooklynThe trade-only event includes buying opportunities as well as educational sessions on artisanal mining, the new Paraíba source, and more.
Events & AwardsOct 08, 2026
Pattons Fine Jewelry Sweeps Local Design ContestAra Chanakian, a jeweler at Pattons, took home top honors in every category at Jewelers of Louisiana’s annual jewelry design competition.
