SurveysOct 23, 2023
Shoppers to Spend More on Winter Holidays This Year, Says NRF SurveysNov 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Is Down Yet Shoppers Continue to Spend
The Conference Board’s monthly index that measures how consumers are feeling declined for the third straight month in October.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from 104.3 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline as fears of a recession persisted, though shoppers continued to spend.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell slightly to 75.6 from 76.4 in September.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it first made in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” said the Conference Board.
Peterson noted that two-thirds of consumers said a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October.
“The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes—in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward,” she said.
“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers, at least through the third quarter of this year, continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” she noted.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, for the most part.
Seventeen percent of respondents expected business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in September, but 20 percent expected them to worsen, up from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in October was about the same as it was in September.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was nearly flat at 16 percent while 19 percent expect fewer jobs to be available, also flat month-over-month.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were down while prospects were up slightly.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase (16 percent in October versus 18 percent in September) while 13 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In October, consumers’ views of their families’ current financial situation improved slightly while views of the situation six months from now softened.
The consumer confidence results for November are slated to be released Nov. 28.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsAug 28, 2026
Dolly Parton Would Have Loved This Butterfly Necklace This Buddha Mama butterfly is our Piece of the Week honoring the legend, who embraced the beautiful insect as her symbol.
SourcingAug 28, 2026
Gareth Penny to Give Opening Speech at CIBJO Centenary CongressThe former De Beers CEO, and perhaps its next owner, will be a featured speaker at the event, slated for Sept. 4-7 in Italy.
IndependentsAug 28, 2026
Day’s Jewelers Honored With 3 Workplace AwardsThe employee-owned jeweler was named a “Best Place to Work” in Maine, New Hampshire, and for women.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
CollectionsAug 27, 2026
Pandora Expands ‘Talisman’ Collection as Lawsuit Continues The second iteration of the jewelry collection was inspired by the zodiac and the four elements: earth, water, air and fire.
Weekly QuizAug 27, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingAug 27, 2026
OFAC Renews License Allowing Import of ‘Grandfathered’ Russian Diamonds General License 104B supersedes General License 104A, which was set to expire on Sept. 1.
CrimeAug 27, 2026
Customs Seizes Nearly 900 Pieces of Counterfeit JewelryThe package, intercepted in Indianapolis, contained fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., and Van Cleef and Arpels jewelry.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
IndependentsAug 27, 2026
Jessica McCormack to Open First West Coast StoreThe new location in Costa Mesa, California, marks the brand’s second store in the United States and fourth standalone location worldwide.
FinancialsAug 27, 2026
Movado’s Q2 Sales Up As Younger Consumers Take Interest in WatchesThe fashion watch category was once threatened by the Apple Watch, but consumers are now opting for new wearables, said Movado’s CEO.
Lab-GrownAug 26, 2026
AGTA Now Requiring Members to Call Lab-Grown Gems ‘Synthetic’The association added the requirement to its revised "Code of Ethics" and released the 17th edition of its “Gemstone Information Manual.”
TrendsAug 26, 2026
Boucheron’s New Campaign Celebrates Its ‘Question Mark’ NecklacesThe campaign highlights the asymmetrical high jewelry necklace style that the jeweler first created in 1879.
Events & AwardsAug 26, 2026
Harry Winston Exhibition to Open in ShanghaiIt will explore the life of “The King of Diamonds” and showcase more than 165 creations from the brand.
CrimeAug 25, 2026
Florida Woman Scammed Out of $1.5M in Jewelry, Precious MetalsTwo suspects have been arrested in connection with the complex phone scam.
ColumnistsAug 25, 2026
Proof Before Purchase: The Gen Z Way to BuyIn her first column for National Jeweler, Jennifer Shaheen asks jewelers if they know how to connect with the next generation of consumers.
Events & AwardsAug 25, 2026
SSEF Opens 2026 Applications for Gemology Education ScholarshipsThe annual awards cover tuition for an on-site educational course at the Swiss lab, as well as flights and lodging.
TrendsAug 25, 2026
Brent Neale Celebrates Blackberry Farm’s Anniversary With JewelryThe jeweler partnered with the Tennessee resort to honor its 50th anniversary with limited-edition blackberry pendants and earrings.
EditorsAug 24, 2026
Q&A: Reeds Jewelers VP Genna Zimmer on 80 Years in BusinessThe third-generation jeweler shared how the North Carolina retailer is celebrating this milestone and the love story that started it all.
Events & AwardsAug 24, 2026
Rio Grande, MetalWerx Host Argentium Silver WorkshopThe class, led by renowned metalsmith Cynthia Eid, highlighted Argentium silver as an alternative to gold amid high prices.
Events & AwardsAug 24, 2026
JIS Miami Opens Fall 2026 RegistrationThe show is slated for Oct. 16-19 at the Miami Beach Convention Center.
CollectionsAug 24, 2026
Francesca Villa Honors Napoleon, His Empresses In New CapsuleThe “Empresses” capsule uses 19th-century medals depicting Napoleon, Joséphine, and Marie-Louise across five one-of-a-kind pieces.
SurveysAug 21, 2026
These Are 2026’s Hottest Retailers, Says NRFThe retailers at the top of the list offer affordable products and fun, discovery-fueled experiences.
WatchesAug 21, 2026
Bremont Names Former Vacheron Constantin Exec CMODaniel Bing was formerly the marketing director for the Americas at Vacheron Constantin.
CollectionsAug 21, 2026
Bijules, Kamyen Serve Up ‘Topspin’ Tennis Bracelet Ahead of US OpenIn our Piece of the Week, the designers reimagine the tennis bracelet with green enamel wrapped around a strand of “Desert Diamonds.”
PodcastsAug 20, 2026
Episode 8: Diamond Industry Update With David Bonaparte & Ronnie VanderLindenThe industry veterans join the podcast to discuss diamond marketing, the FTC Jewelry Guides, and lobbying for lower tariffs.
TechnologyAug 20, 2026
A New AI-Powered Gemstone Identification App Is HereFounder Vik Westermann said the app is a “starting point” to inspire people to work with appraisers and gem labs, not replace them.
AuctionsAug 20, 2026
Storied Unicorn Brooch Up for Auction Gallops to New Home The Verdura brooch, which belonged to the late Virginia Fortune Ryan Ogilvy, was sold to a private collector in Asia.
