SurveysOct 23, 2023
Shoppers to Spend More on Winter Holidays This Year, Says NRF SurveysNov 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Is Down Yet Shoppers Continue to Spend
The Conference Board’s monthly index that measures how consumers are feeling declined for the third straight month in October.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from 104.3 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline as fears of a recession persisted, though shoppers continued to spend.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell slightly to 75.6 from 76.4 in September.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it first made in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” said the Conference Board.
Peterson noted that two-thirds of consumers said a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October.
“The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes—in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward,” she said.
“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers, at least through the third quarter of this year, continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” she noted.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, for the most part.
Seventeen percent of respondents expected business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in September, but 20 percent expected them to worsen, up from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in October was about the same as it was in September.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was nearly flat at 16 percent while 19 percent expect fewer jobs to be available, also flat month-over-month.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were down while prospects were up slightly.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase (16 percent in October versus 18 percent in September) while 13 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In October, consumers’ views of their families’ current financial situation improved slightly while views of the situation six months from now softened.
The consumer confidence results for November are slated to be released Nov. 28.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
Policies & IssuesJan 10, 2025
Jewelers Relief Fund Reopened to Aid Victims of LA Fires Created by JA and DCA, the fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.
Policies & IssuesJan 10, 2025
Harwell Godfrey, Stephanie Gottlieb Are Raising Money for LA Wildfire ReliefSeveral jewelry designers are lending a helping hand to charities in Los Angeles amid the raging wildfires.
TrendsJan 10, 2025
Piece of the Week: Elsa Jin’s ‘Mozi’ BroochAdrien Brody received his first Golden Globe while wearing the “Mozi” brooch, which depicts a spill of traditional Chinese calligraphy ink.
Brought to you by
A Diamond Is Forever Celebrates "Forever Present" Holiday CampaignA Diamond is Forever hosted a holiday celebration in honor of their new marketing campaign, ‘Forever Present.’
SourcingJan 10, 2025
De Beers, GJEPC Partner to Promote Natural DiamondsThe pair will work together to support independent retailers in India with marketing assets, training materials, and other tools.
Weekly QuizJan 09, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeJan 09, 2025
US Customs Seizes Counterfeit Tiffany & Co. JewelsOfficers in Champlain, New York valued the jewels, if genuine, at nearly $30,000.
CollectionsJan 09, 2025
Karma El Khalil’s New Collection is an Ode to the MoonThe “Moonlight Rhapsody” collection is overflowing with gemstones, from raw opal to morganite and spessartite.
Brought to you by
De Beers Group Launches Holiday Campaign for Natural Diamonds‘Forever Present’ campaign revives the iconic A Diamond is Forever tagline and celebrates the diamond dream.
Events & AwardsJan 09, 2025
Here Is the 2025 AGTA GemFair Tucson Educational LineupThe seminar series covers topics from market trends and colored stone terminology to working with museums and growing an Instagram profile.
SourcingJan 09, 2025
Reena Ahluwalia Unveils New Works in ‘Diamond Trails’ AnthologyThe artist collaborated with industry creatives on the project, which features five fictional stories and five corresponding paintings.
IndependentsJan 09, 2025
Virginia Jewelers Raise Nearly $26K for Children’s Hospital at Charity BallNine jewelers donated jewels for a raffle to support the Children’s Hospital Foundation at Virginia Commonwealth University.
WatchesJan 08, 2025
Oris Debuts Hot Pink Miss Piggy WatchMiss Piggy shared her thoughts on being fabulous, the importance of accessories, and how to be your own cheerleader.
Lab-GrownJan 08, 2025
Effy Introduces Brand Dedicated to Lab-Grown Diamonds“Promise by Effy” includes fashion jewelry and engagement rings.
IndependentsJan 08, 2025
Haltom’s Jewelers to Close After 130 YearsThe Texas-based jeweler is closing all three locations.
TrendsJan 08, 2025
Zendaya’s Engagement Ring Combines Vintage and Modern ElementsZendaya’s ring, featuring an east-west set elongated cushion-cut diamond, is said to be from British designer Jessica McCormack.
ColumnistsJan 07, 2025
The Smart Lab: The Hottest Digital Marketing Trends For 2025Micro-influencers, customer reviews, and shoppable videos are going to be key to getting customers’ attention, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
TrendsJan 07, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: January Is for GarnetGarnet is comprised of a group of minerals, giving those with a birthday in January options when it comes to their birthstone.
IndependentsJan 07, 2025
Edge Retail Academy Names 2024 ‘Wag’ Award Winner The annual award, created in memory of business coach William “Wag” Wagner, went to a retailer in Fairfax, Virginia.
MajorsJan 07, 2025
Jewelers for Children Promotes Round-Up Fundraising ProgramRetailers and vendors can ask customers to make a donation by rounding up to the next dollar at checkout.
SourcingJan 07, 2025
Columbia Gem House To Debut Lightning Ridge Opal CollectionThe wholesaler is partnering with Australian brand Cheal Opal on a new offering of calibrated stones.
EditorsJan 06, 2025
White Hot: 8 Glamorous Jewelry Looks From the Golden GlobesFrom Zendaya to Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña, many stars at the 82nd Golden Globes were wearing white gold or platinum jewelry.
CrimeJan 06, 2025
FBI Adds 2 Suspected Jewelry Thieves to Its Wanted ListDescribed by JSA as being “habitual offenders,” Vasile Sava and Onita Rostas have federal warrants out for their arrest in Kansas.
MajorsJan 06, 2025
PDPaola Opens First U.S. StoreThe Barcelona-based brand’s flagship boutique is located in New York City’s West Village neighborhood.
IndependentsJan 06, 2025
Facets of Fire Debuts New Jewelry DisplaysA solar-powered loose diamond holder rotates the stones to show off how they catch the light.
IndependentsJan 03, 2025
Kelly Newton, Shipley Award Winner and Devoted Family Man, Dies at 74Newton owned and operated Newton’s Jewelers in Fort Smith, Arkansas, and is remembered for being positive, honest, and loving.
Events & AwardsJan 03, 2025
12 Works by Glenn Lehrer, Paula Crevoshay on Display at Lapidary Museum“Synergy & Symbiosis” is open now through late April at the Lizzadro Museum of Lapidary Art in Oak Brook, Illinois.
CollectionsJan 03, 2025
Piece of the Week: Renna’s ‘Butterfly Caspian’ NecklaceBegin 2025 with a butterfly intaglio symbolizing change and transformation.
