SurveysOct 23, 2023
Shoppers to Spend More on Winter Holidays This Year, Says NRF SurveysNov 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Is Down Yet Shoppers Continue to Spend
The Conference Board’s monthly index that measures how consumers are feeling declined for the third straight month in October.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from 104.3 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline as fears of a recession persisted, though shoppers continued to spend.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index decreased to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Consumers also shared concerns about politics and higher interest rates as well as ongoing conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War.
“The decline in consumer confidence was evident across household [members] aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Peterson.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, declined to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.
“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady,” said Peterson.
Consumers’ view of current business conditions was more pessimistic in October, with the percentage of respondents who said current business conditions are “good” down to 19 percent from 21 percent in September, while those who said conditions are “bad” increased to 18 percent from 16 percent.
Consumers had a mixed view of the current labor market.
The percentage of respondents who felt jobs were plentiful was virtually flat at about 40 percent in October, while 13 percent said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14 percent in September.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell slightly to 75.6 from 76.4 in September.
When expectations fall below 80, that historically signals a recession within the next year, said the Conference Board, a prediction it first made in July.
“Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024,” said the Conference Board.
Peterson noted that two-thirds of consumers said a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” in October.
“The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes—in line with rising interest rates—continued to trend downward,” she said.
“The continued skepticism about the future is notable given U.S. consumers, at least through the third quarter of this year, continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” she noted.
Looking at short-term business conditions, respondents’ outlooks were more pessimistic, for the most part.
Seventeen percent of respondents expected business conditions to improve, up from 15 percent in September, but 20 percent expected them to worsen, up from 19 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook in October was about the same as it was in September.
The percentage of respondents who expect more jobs to be available was nearly flat at 16 percent while 19 percent expect fewer jobs to be available, also flat month-over-month.
Consumers’ short-term income expectations were down while prospects were up slightly.
Fewer respondents expect to see their incomes increase (16 percent in October versus 18 percent in September) while 13 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 14 percent.
The Conference Board recently added a new set of questions to its monthly survey, asking consumers how they felt about their family finances.
In October, consumers’ views of their families’ current financial situation improved slightly while views of the situation six months from now softened.
The consumer confidence results for November are slated to be released Nov. 28.
More on Surveys
The Latest
IndependentsMay 09, 2025
Lugano Diamonds CEO Resigns Amid Internal InvestigationMoti Ferder stepped down Wednesday and will not receive any severance pay, parent company Compass Diversified said.
CollectionsMay 09, 2025
Pieces of the Week: Marie Lichtenberg’s Collaborations for Mother’s DayLichtenberg partnered with luxury platform Mytheresa on two designs honoring the connection between mothers and daughters.
SourcingMay 09, 2025
Gemfields Resumes Emerald Mining in ZambiaThe miner announced plans to recommence open-pit mining at Kagem.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
CrimeMay 08, 2025
Former NYC Jewelry Store Employee Arrested in 2017 Choking Death of Boss Michel Desalles allegedly murdered Omid Gholian inside World of Gold N Diamond using zip ties and then fled the country.
Weekly QuizMay 08, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
EditorsMay 08, 2025
5 ‘Superfine’ Met Gala Jewelry MomentsAssociate Editor Lauren McLemore shares her favorite looks from a night of style inspired by Black dandyism.
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2025
Instappraise Introduces Game-Changing Trifold Appraisal FormatSponsored by Instappraise
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest AdditionSupplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
FinancialsMay 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth Notes an Uptick in Engagement Ring Sales in Q1CEO Beth Gerstein discussed the company’s bridal bestsellers, the potential impact of tariffs, and the rising price of gold.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Margot McKinney Lands in the U.S. With New BoutiqueThe brand’s first independent location outside of Australia has opened in Beverly Hills, California.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Verragio Announces New Regional Sales ManagerCathy Marsh will lead the jewelry company’s efforts in the upper Midwest and western United States.
FinancialsMay 07, 2025
Pandora Posts Strong Q1, Plans for TariffsThe company has multiple strategies for dealing with tariffs, though its CEO said moving manufacturing to the U.S. is not one of them.
ColumnistsMay 07, 2025
The Smart Lab: Building a Seasonal Marketing Strategy for Mother’s Day and BeyondConnecting with your customers throughout the year is key to a successful holiday marketing push.
SourcingMay 07, 2025
Gemfields Says Emerald Sales Improved in Latest AuctionIts commercial-quality emerald sale held last month totaled more than $16 million, up from about $11 million in September 2024.
TechnologyMay 07, 2025
Punchmark’s Latest Podcast Features a Very Special Guest National Jeweler Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff joined Michael Burpoe to talk tariffs, consumer confidence, and the sky-high price of gold.
AuctionsMay 06, 2025
Harwell Godfrey Reimagines 10-Carat Blue Diamond for Met Gala-Ready BroochDesigner Lauren Harwell Godfrey made the piece as an homage to the 2025 gala’s theme, “Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.”
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2025
Here’s Who Made Jewelers of America’s New ‘20 Under 40’ ListExpanded this year to include suppliers, JA’s 2025 list honors 40 up-and-coming professionals in the jewelry industry.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens New StoreLocated in Fort Smith, it’s the Mid-South jeweler’s first store in Northwest Arkansas.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Gunderson’s Jewelers to Be Featured on ‘World’s Greatest’ TV SeriesThe episode about the family-owned jeweler will premiere May 17.
IndependentsMay 05, 2025
Zadok Jewelers Opens Store in AustinThe Houston-based jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot showroom will include a Rolex boutique.
AuctionsMay 05, 2025
Nancy Astor’s Cartier Tiara Heads to AuctionThe turquoise and diamond tiara hasn’t been on the market since it was purchased by Lord Astor in 1930.
SourcingMay 05, 2025
Crater of Diamonds Yields 4-Carat Brown Diamond“The Duke Diamond” is the largest diamond registered at the Arkansas park so far this year.
TrendsMay 02, 2025
Ring Concierge, Kraft Partner on Mother’s Day Macaroni Necklace The childhood craft of making dried pasta necklaces for Mother’s Day is all grown up as the 14-karat gold “Forever Macaroni” necklace.
CollectionsMay 02, 2025
Piece of the Week: Angely Martinez’s Emerald Promise RingSet with May’s birthstone and featuring an earthworm, this ring is a perfect celebration of spring.
MajorsMay 02, 2025
Stuller’s New Bridal Catalog Is Here“Bridal 2025–2026” includes popular styles and a dedicated section for quick pricing references of lab-grown diamond bridal jewelry.
SourcingMay 01, 2025
Tariffs & Colored Gemstones: Relying on Stock, Considering the Ripple EffectThough currently paused, high tariffs threaten many countries where gemstones are mined. Dealers are taking measures now to prepare.
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Peek Inside David Yurman’s New Miami Flagship StoreLocated in Miami’s Design District, the 4,000-square-foot store is an homage to David and Sybil Yurman’s artistic roots.
