Policies & IssuesMay 20, 2021
Retailers Need Clarity on Updated Mask Guidance, Says NRFSurveysJun 15, 2021
NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year, totaling more than $4 trillion.
Washington—The National Retail Federation upped its annual retail sales forecast for the year, encouraged by the vaccine rollout and the resiliency of consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The NRF noted it made its initial forecast in February when there was still “great uncertainty” about consumer spending, the vaccine rollout, virus infection rates, and whether or not there would be additional fiscal stimulus.
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Related stories will be right here …
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
For 2021, the NRF is forecasting full-year GDP growth of 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
TrendsJul 02, 2026
Oscar Heyman’s Flag Brooch Celebrates AmericaThe American jewelry house, founded by Latvian immigrants, has been creating American flag brooches since 1917.
IndependentsJul 02, 2026
D. Geller & Son Partners with KSU Art Students on Store MuralThe artwork celebrates the Atlanta jeweler’s legacy and symbolizes its commitment to supporting local artists and its community.
Events & AwardsJul 02, 2026
Stratus Estate Buyers Offers Jewelers Turnkey Buying EventsIts team can evaluate jewelry and watches, as well as luxury handbags, artwork, and collectibles.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
CollectionsJul 01, 2026
Rio Grande Launches First Finished Bridal CollectionThe new offering comprises more than 120 bridal and engagement ring styles with natural and lab-grown diamonds.
Weekly QuizJul 01, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
WatchesJul 01, 2026
Rolex Unveils Clock at Rockefeller CenterThe clock is part of the celebration for the soon-to-open Rolex headquarters on New York City’s Fifth Avenue.
IndependentsJul 01, 2026
Kristen Cannon of Valobra Master Jewelers Dies at 49The public relations professional is remembered for her benevolent generosity and unwavering commitment to those around her.
Brought to you by
Building the Future of Jewelry Retail: DCA Expands Education, Leadership Development, and Workforce SolutionsDCA is preparing the next generation of professionals by supporting workforce development, leadership growth, and career advancement.
WatchesJun 30, 2026
Pokémon Fans Will Want to Catch This New G-Shock WatchThe new watch commemorates Pokémon’s 30th anniversary.
MajorsJun 30, 2026
Saks Global Emerges From Bankruptcy With New NameThe luxury retailer is now called Exemplar Luxury Group.
CollectionsJun 30, 2026
Jade Ruzzo’s New Collection Embodies the Art of Being a LadyThe “Lady” collection is a new take on old beauty standards with gemstone-adorned hair pins and combs, a compact mirror necklace, and more.
SourcingJun 30, 2026
Blue Nile Introduces Montana Sapphire CollectionThe new line is included in the e-tailer’s curation of jewelry celebrating America’s 250th anniversary.
GradingJun 30, 2026
AGS Opens 2026 Recertification ExamAll active members who earned their credential or designation before Dec. 1, 2025, are required to recertify.
CollectionsJun 29, 2026
Briony Raymond’s New Collection Is a ‘Carousel’ of Hard StonesThe new jewelry collection uses a colorful palette of onyx, malachite, tiger’s eye, mother-of-pearl, lapis, turquoise, and coral.
IndependentsJun 29, 2026
Look Inside Lee Michaels’ Revamped Mississippi FlagshipLee Michaels Fine Jewelry is celebrating 30 years in the Ridgeland, Mississippi community.
GradingJun 29, 2026
National Rarities Announces New Gemology ManagerSean Milliner has joined the company.
GradingJun 29, 2026
GIA to Open New London CampusClasses will begin in August at GIA’s new Canary Wharf location.
AuctionsJun 26, 2026
‘Hogback’ Diamond Ring Finds a New Home A ring set with “hogback” diamonds, an early stone cut dating to around the 16th century, sold for more than $20,000 at a U.K. auction.
CollectionsJun 26, 2026
Strength Is Sharpened Into Beauty in Kris Averi’s ‘Prism Thorn’ RingThe rainbow version of the ring, our Piece of the Week, features angel-cut, octahedral lab-grown sapphires designed to be worn as armor.
MajorsJun 26, 2026
Rembrandt Charms Debuts ‘Charms That Give Back’The new initiative donates a portion of the proceeds from select charms to charitable causes.
TrendsJun 26, 2026
Bernard James Celebrates Knicks’ Win with RingThe Brooklyn-based jeweler created a limited-edition version of its “Aura” eternity band, set with gemstones in the team’s colors.
SourcingJun 25, 2026
ICA Names Brandee Dallow as CEODallow will lead the International Colored Gemstone Association, effective July 6.
EditorsJun 25, 2026
Out & About: How Jewelers Mutual, SCAD Are Tackling the Bench Jeweler ShortageSenior Editor Lenore Fedow headed to Savannah to learn more about the 10-year, $10 million partnership between JM and the art school.
CollectionsJun 25, 2026
Mejuri Experiments With SteelIts new capsule jewelry collection features gold-finished stainless steel pieces designed for a maximalist look without a luxury price tag.
Events & AwardsJun 25, 2026
Watches & Wonders Announces 2027 DatesThe week-long event in Geneva is slated for April 2027.
SourcingJun 25, 2026
Annie Doresca, Mark Smelzer, Sara Yood Join Gem Legacy BoardThe three industry leaders bring financial, communications, and legal expertise to the nonprofit’s board of directors.
ColumnistsJun 24, 2026
The Revenue Hiding Between Your Counter and Your Online CartJewelers are missing out by not offering this one key add-on at the online point of sale, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
