Policies & IssuesMay 20, 2021
Retailers Need Clarity on Updated Mask Guidance, Says NRFSurveysJun 15, 2021
NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year, totaling more than $4 trillion.
Washington—The National Retail Federation upped its annual retail sales forecast for the year, encouraged by the vaccine rollout and the resiliency of consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The NRF noted it made its initial forecast in February when there was still “great uncertainty” about consumer spending, the vaccine rollout, virus infection rates, and whether or not there would be additional fiscal stimulus.
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Related stories will be right here …
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
For 2021, the NRF is forecasting full-year GDP growth of 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
Supplier BulletinAug 07, 2026
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsSponsored by Stratus Estate Buyers
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Retail Veteran Pam Cloud Appointed President of Blue NileCloud, who will officially join Blue Nile on Monday, spent 26 years at Tiffany & Co. and founded jewelry brand Roseate.
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Pandora Appoints Paulo Garcia as New CFO Garcia will take over from the company’s current CFO, Anders Boyer, who is retiring at the end of November.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Etsy to Lay Off 12% of WorkforceEtsy CEO Kruti Patel Goyal explained why the company is letting go more than 200 employees as its performance improves.
Weekly QuizAug 07, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TrendsAug 07, 2026
Look Ahead with Syna’s Binoculars PendantThe “Star Gazer” pendant, our Piece of the Week, is Syna’s tribute to curiosity and the discovery of something new.
CrimeAug 06, 2026
Lalique Museum to Remain Closed Following $5M HeistMuseum officials are looking to the public to help cover the “exceptional” costs involved in recovering from the July 5 smash-and-grab.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
MajorsAug 06, 2026
Claire’s Revamps Piercing Services for Second Time in Three Years The overhaul includes enhanced employee safety training and trendy earring styles, including lab-grown diamond studs.
FinancialsAug 06, 2026
Brilliant Earth’s Q2 Sales Up 6%, Driven by High-Income ShoppersThe retailer said it had its biggest Mother’s Day ever, with strong demand for higher-priced jewelry.
TrendsAug 06, 2026
New Book on Handcrafted American Objects Highlights Jewelry“Handwork: Handcrafted Objects that Made America” features historic and contemporary works, including a Diné squash blossom necklace.
MajorsAug 06, 2026
AJA East Coast Names Ani Khachian as First Female President-ElectThe Armenian Jewelers Association’s East Coast chapter has also elected its 2026–2027 board of directors.
MajorsAug 05, 2026
Private Equity Firm Wants to Buy 100+ JCPenney StoresOnyx Partners has submitted a second offer to buy the department stores after its first offer fell through last year.
IndependentsAug 05, 2026
Atlanta Jeweler Introduces $10K MartiniSolomon Brothers Jewelers has partnered with local cocktail bar Roaring Social on a new martini garnished with a tennis necklace.
IndependentsAug 05, 2026
Another Member of the Siegel Family Joins Hamilton Jewelers Benjamin Siegel, son of President and CEO Hank Siegel, started working for the family business this week.
MajorsAug 05, 2026
Bulgari Opens Store in San DiegoThe new space features a modern design that blends Bulgari’s Roman heritage with San Diego’s coastal spirit.
CrimeAug 04, 2026
Crew of Thieves Break Into Indiana Jeweler’s HomeFour men were charged in connection with the break-in and accused of stealing $365,000 in cash, jewelry, and designer goods.
MajorsAug 04, 2026
Pandora Hires Former Signet Board Member to Lead North American MarketAndré Branch has more than 25 years of experience with various brands, most recently serving as CEO of Ariana Grande’s cosmetics company.
MajorsAug 04, 2026
Sasha Primak Acquires GemlokNew York-based atelier Gemlok is best known for creating the innovative “bridge” setting that became popular in the bridal market.
CollectionsAug 04, 2026
Musician Carlos Santana Launches Jewelry BrandSantana Now's debut collection, “Unidad,” features symbolic motifs as well as pieces of wood from the Woodstock stage.
CrimeAug 03, 2026
Florida Man Gets 15 Years in Trio of Jewelry Store RobberiesThe 50-year-old man pleaded guilty earlier this year to robbing two jewelry stores and a pawn shop of more than $700,000 in merchandise.
WatchesAug 03, 2026
Citizen's New Spider-Man Watch Is a Collector’s DreamThe watch’s dial features an original design by Marvel comics illustrator Adam Kubert.
Lab-GrownAug 03, 2026
Chatham Releases First Men’s CollectionThe new collection of lab-grown diamond and colored gemstone jewelry provides a “fresh perspective” on the category, Chatham said.
TrendsAug 03, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Spinel vs. Peridot While some August babies are team peridot, the month's time-honored birthstone, others are team spinel, the newer alternative.
TrendsJul 31, 2026
These Pieces of the Week Are Sweet Edina Kiss’ “Popsicle” pendant and Karina Choudhrie’s “Ice Cream” charm satisfy that summer craving for a sweet piece of jewelry.
MajorsJul 31, 2026
Macy’s Iconic Red Shopping Bag Sign Torn DownThe massive billboard has been in the same spot on the department store’s Herald Square flagship store for decades.
SourcingJul 31, 2026
Gemfields’ H1 Revenue Jumps 72%The miner’s ruby and emerald auctions brought in a combined $102.9 million.
