NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
The Latest
Consumers today are looking for a little escape, and jewelry is the perfect avenue to provide it, presenters at the Vicenzaoro show said.
The “Extraordinary Lovers” collection features engagement rings with enamel scenes inspired by art and mythology.
BIPOC designers can apply for a spot in the mentorship program’s third cohort until Oct. 8.
Growing your Instagram following organically is more important than ever in today's technological environment.
The luxury giant recently completed its acquisition of the Italian jewelry brand.
The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship provides tuition help to aspiring bench jewelers.
Associate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights the best jewelry looks from the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
Supplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA.
The lab will include reference numbers on reports for cultured pearls that contain bead nuclei embedded with an RFID tag.
Lilian Raji offers advice to a reader frustrated with the current state of their company’s website.
The actress shared her inspiration for the collection, insight into her personal style, and which jewels President Barbie would wear.
The giant gem originated from Karowe, the same mine that yielded a 2,492-carat rough diamond in late August.
Monishkumar Kirankumar Doshi Shah admitted to dodging customs duties on more than $13.5 million of jewelry imported into the U.S.
The new boutique is located on Madison Avenue.
The company’s fourth location worldwide will focus on its AI-powered gem document, the Gem Passport.
Its next event will take place in D.C. on Sept. 17 and in New York City on Oct. 29.
The artist opted for big yellow diamond earrings, a vintage chain, and white metals at the annual MTV awards show.
The Swiss watchmaker has created limited-edition timepieces for all 32 National Football League teams.
This carved jasper and yellow-diamond-eyed cat brooch from 1962 is the perfect accessory for Friday the 13th.
The jewelry giant said it expects to see an uptick in engagements in the second half of the year.
Sponsored by Gemological Institute of America
The brand is celebrating its upcoming 55th anniversary with modern designs that pay tribute to its history.
He, and other newly elected board members, will begin their terms in February.
Those interested can apply online now through Nov. 15.
Its “Her-ology” report highlights trends in the women’s luxury watch market, from top brands to movement preferences.
The smoked heirloom tomato mezcal martini, only available at Adalina in Chicago, is served with a 9-carat diamond tennis necklace.
Scheduled for Sept. 25, the online-only event will be open to non-AGS members this year, for a fee.