Policies & IssuesMay 20, 2021
Retailers Need Clarity on Updated Mask Guidance, Says NRFSurveysJun 15, 2021
NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year, totaling more than $4 trillion.
Washington—The National Retail Federation upped its annual retail sales forecast for the year, encouraged by the vaccine rollout and the resiliency of consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The NRF noted it made its initial forecast in February when there was still “great uncertainty” about consumer spending, the vaccine rollout, virus infection rates, and whether or not there would be additional fiscal stimulus.
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Related stories will be right here …
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
For 2021, the NRF is forecasting full-year GDP growth of 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
Recorded WebinarsJun 24, 2022
Vegas Jewelry Recap: The Editors Weigh InWatch the webinar in which National Jeweler’s editors talk about jewelry market week trends and their predictions for the rest of 2022.
MajorsJun 24, 2022
Banter by Piercing Pagoda Celebrates Pride with ‘SayGay’ NecklaceAll proceeds up to $25,000 will benefit the It Gets Better Project, a nonprofit that supports LGBTQ+ youth.
Brought to you by
Discover The Extraordinary Italian Jewelry In Las Vegas!Experience all the Italian Jewelry market has to offer in Las Vegas.
CollectionsJun 24, 2022
Piece of the Week: Marie Lichtenberg’s Hidden Message LocketIt’s a reminder that life is best lived with discretion.
Weekly QuizJun 23, 2022
This Week’s QuizTest your knowledge of the latest jewelry news with this quick test.
TechnologyJun 24, 2022
Cloud-Based POS Software Jewel360 Launches for Jewelry RetailersThe end-to-end software allows for real-time control over all sales, inventory, repairs, customer communications, and marketing.
EditorsJun 23, 2022
Antique Show Observations From a First-Time AttendeeAssociate Editor Lenore Fedow shares her impressions of the Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show and a few of her favorite finds.
Brought to you by
3 Reasons to Offer Estate Buying at Your StoreProvide your customers with a seamless selling solution by partnering with Windsor Jewelers, Inc.
GradingJun 23, 2022
AIGS Launches Grading Report for ‘Santa Maria’ AquamarineThe Asian Institute of Gemological Sciences aims to set a color standard for the trade name.
SourcingJun 23, 2022
Rough Diamond Sales Rise Again for De Beers Sales were up 36 percent year-over-year in June and are pacing 24 percent ahead of last year at this point.
AuctionsJun 23, 2022
Auction House Freeman’s Appoints First Rep in Florida Kate Della Monica, a senior specialist in the Jewelry and Watches department, will relocate to the Sunshine State.
Lab-GrownJun 22, 2022
LVMH Luxury Ventures Sinks Money Into Lab-Grown Diamond Start-UpLVMH’s investment arm has taken a stake in Lusix, a lab-grown diamond company based in Israel.
AuctionsJun 22, 2022
Here’s How Two 100-Plus-Carat Diamonds Did at AuctionSotheby’s New York put a colorless diamond and a fancy deep orange-brown diamond up for sale last week, with mixed results.
CrimeJun 22, 2022
Leviev Diamonds Launches Bracelet to Help ‘Tinder Swindler’ Victims Profits will help them recoup financial losses.
MajorsJun 22, 2022
Swarovski Names First Non-Family CEORetail veteran Alexis Nasard will step in as CEO on July 4.
SourcingJun 22, 2022
Edward Asscher to Remain WDC President for Another YearThe organization also extended the terms of Vice President Feriel Zerouki and Treasurer Ronnie VanderLinden.
ColumnistsJun 21, 2022
State of the Majors 2022: Reflections on ResilienceAfter suffering a professional setback, columnist Peter Smith reflects on our ability to bounce back even when the hits keep on coming.
IndependentsJun 21, 2022
Jeweler Tommy Glatz, Known for Being Creative and Kind, Dies at 68Glatz owned and operated Glatz Jewelers in Aliquippa, Pennsylvania for more than 40 years.
Events & AwardsJun 21, 2022
24 Karat Club of Southern California Will Honor These Industry LeadersThe organization will present three awards at its annual dinner, dance, and gala in October.
MajorsJun 21, 2022
David Yurman Hires Chief of People, StrategyFormer McKinsey partner Emily Yueh marks new president Evan Yurman’s first hire.
TrendsJun 17, 2022
Britney Spears Wore Over $500K of Stephanie Gottlieb Diamonds at Her WeddingThe New York jeweler also made the pop star’s wedding bands.
AuctionsJun 17, 2022
5-Carat Paraiba Tourmaline Ring to Hit the Auction BlockIt’s predicted to sell for up to $484,000 during the Bonhams Hong Kong Jewels and Jadeite auction on June 22.
Events & AwardsJun 17, 2022
WJA Foundation to Offer Tech Scholarships for Women of ColorThe recipient will receive up to $17,500 toward a tech-focused certification or program of their choice.
CollectionsJun 17, 2022
Piece of the Week: Gemella’s ‘Stella’ NecklaceIt’s as versatile as it is glamorous.
TechnologyJun 16, 2022
Cartier, Amazon Suing ‘Influencer,’ Sellers Over Counterfeit ‘Love’ JewelryThe alleged scheme involving fake “Love” bracelets, necklaces and rings was designed to circumvent Amazon’s counterfeit detection tools.
MajorsJun 16, 2022
Helzberg CEO Beryl Raff to RetireChief Financial Officer Brad Hampton will take over as the retailer’s new CEO.
