Policies & IssuesMay 20, 2021
Retailers Need Clarity on Updated Mask Guidance, Says NRFSurveysJun 15, 2021
NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year, totaling more than $4 trillion.
Washington—The National Retail Federation upped its annual retail sales forecast for the year, encouraged by the vaccine rollout and the resiliency of consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The NRF noted it made its initial forecast in February when there was still “great uncertainty” about consumer spending, the vaccine rollout, virus infection rates, and whether or not there would be additional fiscal stimulus.
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Related stories will be right here …
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
For 2021, the NRF is forecasting full-year GDP growth of 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
PodcastsJul 23, 2026
Episode 7: Reinhold Jewelers on the Power of RelationshipsMildred Marcano Abrams and Yael Reinhold join the podcast to talk community connections, holiday plans, and preserving Reinhold’s legacy.
SourcingJul 23, 2026
De Beers’ Production Jumps 88 Percent in Q2 Production also was up in the first half of 2026 but is expected to “substantially” decrease in H2 as two key mines undergo maintenance.
CollectionsJul 23, 2026
Silvia Furmanovich’s New Collection Travels Back to the 1920s“Art Deco” fuses ancestral techniques, rare materials, and modern perspectives as a tribute to the optimism and curiosity of the movement.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
IndependentsJul 23, 2026
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens Casino StoreThe jeweler’s newest store is inside Arkansas’ Saracen Casino Resort.
Weekly QuizJul 17, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
WatchesJul 23, 2026
Movado Inks Licensing Deal With Kate Spade New YorkThe watch company will design, manufacture, and distribute Kate Spade New York watches.
Policies & IssuesJul 22, 2026
Trump to Put 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods The higher tax is set to go into effect in August and will apply to loose polished diamonds as well as precious and base metals jewelry.
Brought to you by
Building the Future of Jewelry Retail: DCA Expands Education, Leadership Development, and Workforce SolutionsDCA is preparing the next generation of professionals by supporting workforce development, leadership growth, and career advancement.
CollectionsJul 22, 2026
Monica Rich Kosann’s High Jewelry Is FruitfulThe “Enchanted Garden” series features a cherry, lemon, and pear that each hold a little secret inside.
IndependentsJul 22, 2026
Liljenquist Beckstead Opens Rolex New BoutiqueIt’s located in Tysons Galleria, an upscale shopping center in the Washington, D.C., metro area.
Events & AwardsJul 22, 2026
NY Now Returns in August Under New OwnershipThe show, recently acquired by Rockview Management Group, will be held at New York City’s Javits Center from Aug. 2-4.
ColumnistsJul 21, 2026
Sherry Smith: Shattering the Illusion of the ‘Either/Or’ Diamond MarketSmith offers retailers guidance on creating an environment where natural and lab-grown diamonds can both thrive.
Events & AwardsJul 21, 2026
Apollo Funds Completes Emerald AcquisitionFormer Emerald President and CEO Hervé Sedky has transitioned to the role of senior advisor.
CollectionsJul 21, 2026
Graff’s New Butterfly High Jewelry Brooches MetamorphosizeThe 12-piece capsule collection transforms from brooches to pendants.
SourcingJul 21, 2026
Anglo Reportedly Selects Gareth Penny’s Consortium as Top Bidder for De BeersA Botswana government official told lawmakers Anglo has selected The Global Diamond Consortium, an entity chaired by Penny, to buy De Beers.
Policies & IssuesJul 20, 2026
Tariffs on Brazil to Increase But Rough Gemstones ExemptThe new tariff, imposed after a Trump administration study, is 25 percent and will stack on top of existing tariffs.
CollectionsJul 20, 2026
Vhernier Transforms ‘Freccia’ Collection Into High JewelryThe collection from 2014 has been reinterpreted into high jewelry with its signature triangular-shaped elements.
MajorsJul 20, 2026
Krista Collins Walters Promoted to Publisher of InstoreShe will also take on the role of vice president of jewelry for SmartWork Media, a newly created position.
Events & AwardsJul 20, 2026
TJS Accepting Speaker Proposals for 2027 EventOrganizers are looking for presentations on topics like manufacturing, technology and research, bench work, gemstones, and sustainability.
CollectionsJul 17, 2026
HOWL Taps Shailene Woodley for ‘Home Sweet Home’ CampaignWoodley is seen in the campaign wearing our Piece of the Week, the “Frida” collar featuring 13 pieces of hand-carved Venetian glass.
SourcingJul 17, 2026
U.K. Woman Pays £5 for £15K Diamond Ring at Car Boot SaleA WeBuyVintage jewelry expert uncovered how much the flea market find was actually worth.
SourcingJul 17, 2026
Diamond Dealer Jeff Pancis Pens MemoirThe founder of natural colored diamond wholesaler Pancis Gems shares stories from his five decades in the industry.
Events & AwardsJul 17, 2026
Gem Awards Opens 2027 Nomination PeriodSubmissions for the milestone 25th annual Gem Awards will be accepted across three categories from now through July 31.
EditorsJul 16, 2026
Q&A: Guzema’s Co-Owners On Its US Expansion, 10-Year AnniversaryValeriya Guzema and Mariana Lenha look back on the last decade and discuss the Ukrainian brand’s first U.S. store.
SourcingJul 16, 2026
Ekati to Close, Leaving Canada With One Diamond Mine The diamond mine, which opened nearly 30 years ago in Canada’s Northwest Territories, is expected to shut down by mid-August.
FinancialsJul 16, 2026
Richemont’s Jewelry Sales Soar for the Seventh Quarter in a RowJewelry sales for the company, which owns Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Vhernier, and Buccellati, rose 21 percent in the first quarter.
Events & AwardsJul 16, 2026
MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program Certifies First Advanced Apprentice GraduateThe graduate, Grace Barden, credited the program with helping her secure a job as a bench jeweler.
