Policies & IssuesMay 20, 2021
Retailers Need Clarity on Updated Mask Guidance, Says NRFSurveysJun 15, 2021
NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year, totaling more than $4 trillion.
Washington—The National Retail Federation upped its annual retail sales forecast for the year, encouraged by the vaccine rollout and the resiliency of consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The NRF noted it made its initial forecast in February when there was still “great uncertainty” about consumer spending, the vaccine rollout, virus infection rates, and whether or not there would be additional fiscal stimulus.
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Related stories will be right here …
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
For 2021, the NRF is forecasting full-year GDP growth of 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
CrimeOct 01, 2026
Police Looking for 4 Suspects in $600K Smash-and-Grab RobberyDubai Jewelers in Springfield, Virginia, was once again the target of an armed robbery.
SourcingOct 01, 2026
Columbia Gem House Opens ‘Cutting Toward Change’ FundraiserProceeds from its jewelry raffle will benefit an organization working in India to combat silicosis, a lung disease affecting stone cutters.
TrendsOct 01, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes’ Championship Ring Reveals Hidden Hockey Puck PendantThe rings, crafted by Jason of Beverly Hills, celebrate the hockey team’s Stanley Cup win with design elements that honor its traditions.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
TrendsOct 01, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: October’s Color Range This roundup of birthstone jewelry for October features vibrant tourmalines and opals with personality.
Weekly QuizSep 25, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingSep 30, 2026
Botswana’s President, De Beers CEO Say Diamond Demand Is RecoveringPresident Duma Boko spoke at back-to-back events in the city last week, touting Botswana’s stability and the diamond “bounceback.”
CollectionsSep 30, 2026
Oscar Heyman’s Holiday Book Is ‘A Living Archive’ The catalog showcases 112 new, one-of-a-kind pieces amid highlights from the jeweler’s historic archive.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
SourcingSep 30, 2026
Gemfields Posts $98.5M Loss, Writes Down Value of Ruby MineIts Montepuez Ruby Mining operation in Mozambique, which is not yielding enough high-quality rubies, has taken a $125 million hit.
Events & AwardsSep 30, 2026
Jewelers of America, JA New York to Host Networking EventThe event will take place on the evening of Oct. 26 in New York City.
IndependentsSep 29, 2026
Christy Bromberg, Longtime Gift Buyer for Underwood Jewelers, Dies at 68She is remembered for her joie de vivre, upbeat personality, genuine interest in other people, and love of the Alabama Crimson Tide.
AuctionsSep 29, 2026
Dionne Warwick’s Jewelry Goes Up for AuctionOnline bidding is open now for Julien’s sale of items owned by the “Walk On By” singer, whose final album comes out this fall.
Events & AwardsSep 29, 2026
Matt Stuller to Receive 2027 Gem Award for Lifetime AchievementThe founder and executive chairman of Stuller Inc. is being honored for his impact on the jewelry industry at the 25th annual Gem Awards.
ColumnistsSep 29, 2026
Your Holiday Marketing Has a Bridal Blind SpotDecember is the most popular month to propose, and jewelers need to keep that in mind when planning their holiday marketing.
AuctionsSep 29, 2026
If You Love Cats, This Jewelry Auction Is for YouCat ladies of the jewelry world, unite. Sandy Lerner’s collection of cat jewelry and other objects is going up for auction Wednesday.
CollectionsSep 28, 2026
De Beers London Drops Water-Inspired High Jewelry Collection“Vibrations” features several firsts for De Beers’ high jewelry, including the use of chalcedony and diamonds sourced from artisanal miners.
CollectionsSep 28, 2026
Jessica McCormack Turns to Classic Motif for New CollectionThe “Bows” collection features three interpretations of the bow motif designed with Georgian and Victorian influences.
Events & AwardsSep 28, 2026
Guy Borenstein, Troy Underwood Among the Professionals Honored at AGS Conclave 2026The American Gem Society recognized industry members, one Guild, and a law enforcement official for their contributions to jewelry.
FinancialsSep 28, 2026
Instappraise, Jewelers Mutual Look to Simplify Jewelry InsuranceThrough a new system integration, customers can now receive instant personal jewelry insurance quotes at the time of appraisal.
WatchesSep 25, 2026
Smaller Rolex Watches Showing Strength on Secondary Market, Data ShowsFive of the 10 fastest-appreciating Rolex models on Bob’s Watches were Datejust 31 or Lady Datejust watches.
MajorsSep 25, 2026
Sherwood Family Buys Back Daniel’s Jewelers from Private EquityThe Sherwood family and AJS Creations CEO Tejas Shah purchased the jewelry chain back from Palladium Equity Partners.
Lab-GrownSep 25, 2026
Brilliant Earth Collabs with Elizabeth Taylor Estate on Jewelry Collection“The Elizabeth Taylor Collection” uses lab-grown diamonds and gemstones in contemporary designs inspired by the icon.
TrendsSep 25, 2026
A Peek at Taylor Swift’s Game-Day DiamondsThe artist wore Dana Rebecca Designs’ marquise diamond-set gold hoops at the Chiefs game last Sunday. Now they’re our Piece of the Week.
CrimeSep 24, 2026
From Conclave: Security Measures Jewelers Should Be TakingJSA and Jewelers Mutual shared advice on spotting suspicious behavior, combatting cell phone jammers, and staying safe at home.
AuctionsSep 24, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Heads to UK Jewelry AuctionThe fancy light blue diamond is estimated to fetch up to $2.6 million at Elmwood’s next week.
TrendsSep 24, 2026
This New Jewelry Book Decodes the Secret Meaning in Victorian Jewelry“Secret Language of Victorian Jewelry” unveils the meaning behind the symbols, motifs, and gemstones used in Victorian-era jewelry.
