Policies & IssuesMay 20, 2021
Retailers Need Clarity on Updated Mask Guidance, Says NRFSurveysJun 15, 2021
NRF Raises 2021 Retail Sales Forecast
The organization revised its guidance following a strong vaccine rollout and resilient consumer spending.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year, totaling more than $4 trillion.
Washington—The National Retail Federation upped its annual retail sales forecast for the year, encouraged by the vaccine rollout and the resiliency of consumer spending.
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) are now expected to grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent year-over-year to more than $4.44 trillion.
Previously, NRF forecast sales growth of 6.5-8.2 percent to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release about the updated forecast.
“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend.”
"Consumers are increasingly confident and we're seeing them demonstrate their ability and their willingness to spend money and drive our economy. As a result, today we're revising our annual spending forecast."
— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) June 9, 2021
— NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay https://t.co/J0W8qmVbo4 pic.twitter.com/jPw08OG5Wl
The NRF noted it made its initial forecast in February when there was still “great uncertainty” about consumer spending, the vaccine rollout, virus infection rates, and whether or not there would be additional fiscal stimulus.
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
Related stories will be right here …
The trade organization announced the updated forecast during its first “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, held virtually last week.
As more consumers embrace e-commerce, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.09 trillion and $1.13 trillion.
In 2020, the NRF reported $4.02 trillion in total retail sales, with non-store and online sales accounting for $920 billion of that total.
For 2021, the NRF is forecasting full-year GDP growth of 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Pre-pandemic output levels are expected to return in this quarter, the organization said.
“We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Fiscal and monetary policy intervention, like the stimulus checks, bolstered personal income and somewhat made up for the income lost last March and April, he said, which increased consumers’ purchasing power.
The data points to “an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” Kleinhenz said.
The economy reopened faster than many expected, he said, adding that he foresees the fastest growth the United States has experienced since 1984.
“There will likely be some spending shifted away from goods toward services, but the retail industry has greatly benefited from this acceleration of spending,” said Kleinhenz during the presentation.
The possibility of people spending less on goods, particularly luxury goods, as opportunities for travel, dining and other experiences open up has been a point of discussion in the jewelry industry as of late.
On its recent earnings call, Signet Jewelers noted this possible shift away from jewelry and other goods to experience-based categories, but said it will ramp up its marketing efforts in response.
To watch the recorded session, visit the NRF’s website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 YearsThe independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in FloridaThe debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor ShortageThe roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.
Weekly QuizMar 27, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry CollectionThe “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in DiamondsDiamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With AcquisitionThe Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH WatchesThe longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry StoreAuthorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in EnglishLotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ RingThe ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand AmbassadorThe Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent JewelerThe family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco WatchesThe “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.
MajorsMar 26, 2025
QVC Group Appoints New PresidentAlex Wellen, formerly CEO and president of MotorTrend Group, has taken on the role.
Events & AwardsMar 26, 2025
Jewelers of America Announces New Funding Initiative The Impact Initiative is part of the nonprofit association’s new three-year strategic plan.
AuctionsMar 25, 2025
Christie’s To Auction 35-Carat Sapphire, 13-Carat RubyThe ruby and the sapphire, which Christie’s calls a “once-in-a-generation masterpiece,” are part of the upcoming Hong Kong jewelry auction.
CrimeMar 25, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Earrings Swallowed Following Grab-and-Run Theft RecoveredThe two pairs of earrings, snatched from a Tiffany & Co. store in Orlando, Florida, are valued at a combined $769,500.
ColumnistsMar 25, 2025
The Smart Lab: Using Short-Form Videos to Sell More JewelryThe time to start experimenting with video content is now, writes columnist Emmanuel Raheb.
CollectionsMar 24, 2025
Pomellato’s Latest ‘Nudo’ Collections Revamp its Classic DesignFrom striking high jewelry to miniature fine jewelry, the new chapter continues to highlight gemstones featuring its signature 57-facet cut.
MajorsMar 24, 2025
4 Top Executives to Depart Signet Jewelers Amid TurnaroundThe jewelry giant is reducing its senior leadership by 30 percent as part of its new turnaround strategy.
WatchesMar 24, 2025
Sotheby's Now Offers Watch Repair ServicesThe auction house's partnership with online watch servicing platform WatchCheck makes repairs convenient and accessible, it said.
