SurveysApr 28, 2021
Consumer Confidence Hits 14-Month High in AprilPolicies & IssuesMay 06, 2021
US Economy Could See Fastest Growth Since the ‘80s
The National Retail Federation expects it to grow nearly 7 percent in 2021 as businesses reopen and consumer confidence continues to rise.
As stores reopen and consumers increase their spending, the U.S. economy is expected to have its fastest growth in more than three decades, the National Retail Federation said.
Washington—The U.S. economy could see its fastest growth in more than three decades amid business reopenings, employees returning to work, and increased consumer confidence, the National Retail Federation said.
In its May issue of the Monthly Economic Review, the NRF said it expects the economy to grow 6.6 percent this year, its most aggressive growth since 1984, when the economy expanded 7.2 percent.
“While there is a great deal of uncertainty about how fast and far this economy will grow in 2021, surveys show an increase in individuals being vaccinated … increased spending intentions and comfort with resuming pre-pandemic behaviors like shopping, travel and family gatherings,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“This ‘feel-better situation’ will likely translate into higher levels of household spending, especially around upcoming holidays like the Fourth of July and spending associated with back-to-work and back-to-school.”
The NRF Review said the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report on current economic conditions, “affirms what the economic data has been signaling”—U.S. growth is starting to accelerate.
Both the Federal Reserve’s assessment and other data show unemployment benefits, government stimulus checks, and tax refunds have provided a major increase in personal income and purchasing power, with consumers “sitting on a stockpile of cash” that could become “a spring-loaded spending mechanism,” Kleinhenz said.
The NRF said the $2.4 trillion saved by households in February alone was about twice the average monthly savings in 2019 and is in addition to savings accumulated over the past year as consumers stayed at home instead of dining out, traveling, or attending entertainment and sporting events.
Related stories will be right here …
In its May issue of the Monthly Economic Review, the NRF said it expects the economy to grow 6.6 percent this year, its most aggressive growth since 1984, when the economy expanded 7.2 percent.
“While there is a great deal of uncertainty about how fast and far this economy will grow in 2021, surveys show an increase in individuals being vaccinated … increased spending intentions and comfort with resuming pre-pandemic behaviors like shopping, travel and family gatherings,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“This ‘feel-better situation’ will likely translate into higher levels of household spending, especially around upcoming holidays like the Fourth of July and spending associated with back-to-work and back-to-school.”
The NRF Review said the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report on current economic conditions, “affirms what the economic data has been signaling”—U.S. growth is starting to accelerate.
Both the Federal Reserve’s assessment and other data show unemployment benefits, government stimulus checks, and tax refunds have provided a major increase in personal income and purchasing power, with consumers “sitting on a stockpile of cash” that could become “a spring-loaded spending mechanism,” Kleinhenz said.
The NRF said the $2.4 trillion saved by households in February alone was about twice the average monthly savings in 2019 and is in addition to savings accumulated over the past year as consumers stayed at home instead of dining out, traveling, or attending entertainment and sporting events.
Additionally, use of consumer credit is up, with outstanding credit in February surging to the highest it’s been since late 2017, according to NRF.
Kleinhenz said the increase in borrowing “highlights a consumer who is growing more confident as the economy accelerates, job growth picks up, and more states lift burdensome restrictions.”
He did caution that last year’s “outsize swings” in economic data brought on by the pandemic, hurricanes, wildfires, and other events would make year-over-year comparisons difficult throughout 2021. He said federal agencies are trying their best with available information to make seasonal adjustments account for the swings.
NRF has revised its retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and restaurants) total for 2020 to $4.02 trillion rather than the $4.06 trillion originally reported.
Growth last year, however, was adjusted upward to 6.9 percent since 2019 retail sales were revised to $3.76 trillion from $3.81 trillion, which means 2020 still broke the record for retail sales growth despite the pandemic.
NRF has forecasted 2021 retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent year-over-year to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
Kleinhenz said the increase in borrowing “highlights a consumer who is growing more confident as the economy accelerates, job growth picks up, and more states lift burdensome restrictions.”
He did caution that last year’s “outsize swings” in economic data brought on by the pandemic, hurricanes, wildfires, and other events would make year-over-year comparisons difficult throughout 2021. He said federal agencies are trying their best with available information to make seasonal adjustments account for the swings.
NRF has revised its retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and restaurants) total for 2020 to $4.02 trillion rather than the $4.06 trillion originally reported.
Growth last year, however, was adjusted upward to 6.9 percent since 2019 retail sales were revised to $3.76 trillion from $3.81 trillion, which means 2020 still broke the record for retail sales growth despite the pandemic.
NRF has forecasted 2021 retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent year-over-year to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
More on Policies & Issues
The Latest
GradingMar 06, 2026
Tom Moses Leaving GIA After Nearly 50 YearsMoses, who started at GIA’s Santa Monica lab in 1976, will leave the Gemological Institute of America in May.
Lab-GrownMar 06, 2026
Charles & Colvard Files for Bankruptcy, Citing Price PressuresIncreased competition, falling lab-grown diamond and moissanite prices, and the rising cost of gold took a toll on the moissanite maker.
CollectionsMar 06, 2026
Zome’s ‘Solara’ Earrings Embody Celestial BeautyThe earrings, our Piece of the Week, feature pink tourmalines as planets orbiting around an aquamarine center set in 18-karat rose gold.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
MajorsMar 06, 2026
Pomellato’s 2026 IWD Campaign Spotlights Economic Abuse“The Price of Freedom” campaign video for International Women’s Day confronts the quiet violence of financial control.
Weekly QuizMar 05, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsMar 05, 2026
Common Era Honors ‘Difficult Women’ in CollectionThe ever-growing collection, which just expanded with the addition of Olga of Kyiv, features cameos of 12 women from history.
TrendsMar 05, 2026
Engagement Ring Trends 2026: What’s In, and WhyWe asked a jewelry historian, designer, bridal director, and wedding expert what’s trending in engagement rings. Here’s what they said.
Brought to you by
DCA Enters a New Chapter in Jewelry EducationWith refreshed branding, a new website, updated courses, and a pathway for growth, DCA is dedicated to supporting retail staff development.
Events & AwardsMar 05, 2026
AGS Announces Conclave 2026 Speaker LineupThe annual event will be held in Orlando, Florida, from Sept. 14-17.
TrendsMar 05, 2026
Caitríona Balfe Fronts Only Natural Diamonds CoverThe “Outlander” star modeled for the digital cover of the magazine’s spring issue, which features a story on her relationship with jewelry.
MajorsMar 05, 2026
Registration Opens for CIBJO Centenary CongressThis year’s annual congress, which will mark the confederation’s 100th anniversary, will take place this fall in Italy.
MajorsMar 04, 2026
Michael M Opens First StoreBeverly Hills was chosen as the location for the brand’s first store, designed as a “private residence for modern monarchs.”
EditorsMar 04, 2026
Q&A: Brilliant Earth’s CEO on the New Beverly Hills StoreBeth Gerstein discusses the vibe of the new store, what customers want when fine jewelry shopping today, and the details of “Date Night.”
Events & AwardsMar 04, 2026
JIS Miami Spring Show to Feature New Gifts Pavilion, Pop-Up Trends TalksNearly half of buyers are prioritizing silver and fashion collections this season, organizers said.
TrendsMar 04, 2026
Spinelli Kilcollin Rides Free In Year of the Horse CampaignThe “Live Now. Polish Later.” campaign features equestrians wearing the brand’s jewels while galloping across the icy plains of Kazakhstan.
MajorsMar 04, 2026
LeachGarner Names New Brand DirectorThe precious metals provider has promoted Jennifer Ashworth to the role.
Events & AwardsMar 03, 2026
Johnny Nelson Wins David Yurman Gem Awards GrantNelson will be honored as the inaugural grant winner at the Gem Awards gala on March 13.
SourcingMar 03, 2026
7 Trends That Could Define the Diamond Industry’s FutureExperts from India weigh in the politics, policies, and market dynamics for diamantaires to monitor in 2026 and beyond.
MajorsMar 03, 2026
Swiss Refiner Completes Acquisition of Gannon & ScottThe American precious metals refiner’s day-to-day operations remain the same post-acquisition.
TrendsMar 03, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: AquatopiaThese aquamarine jewels channel the calming energy of the March birthstone.
Events & AwardsMar 03, 2026
AGTA Adds Another New Category for SpectrumThe “Innovative Design” category and award will debut in the Spectrum division of this year’s AGTA Spectrum & Cutting Edge Awards.
EditorsMar 02, 2026
Jewelry at the Actor Awards: Reimagining Hollywood GlamourDiamond jewelry was the star of the event formerly known as the SAG Awards.
SurveysMar 02, 2026
Consumer Confidence Edges Up in FebruaryConsumers were somewhat less worried about the future, though concerns about rising prices and politics remained.
Events & AwardsMar 02, 2026
JVC to Honor Rebecca Foerster at Annual LuncheonFoerster is this year’s Stanley Schechter Award recipient.
Events & AwardsMar 02, 2026
JFC Names 2026 ‘Facets’ Honorees Sponsorships and tickets to the annual fundraising event, set for May 31, are available now.
CrimeFeb 27, 2026
Man Charged in Murders of Father, Son Jewelers in ChicagoChicago police and members of the U.S. Marshals Service tracked down the 35-year-old suspect earlier this week in St. Louis.
SourcingFeb 27, 2026
South African Diamond Mine Closes Amid Search for Missing WorkersOwners of the Ekapa Mine reportedly filed for liquidation about a week after a mudslide trapped five workers who have yet to be found.
