SurveysApr 28, 2021
Consumer Confidence Hits 14-Month High in AprilPolicies & IssuesMay 06, 2021
US Economy Could See Fastest Growth Since the ‘80s
The National Retail Federation expects it to grow nearly 7 percent in 2021 as businesses reopen and consumer confidence continues to rise.
As stores reopen and consumers increase their spending, the U.S. economy is expected to have its fastest growth in more than three decades, the National Retail Federation said.
Washington—The U.S. economy could see its fastest growth in more than three decades amid business reopenings, employees returning to work, and increased consumer confidence, the National Retail Federation said.
In its May issue of the Monthly Economic Review, the NRF said it expects the economy to grow 6.6 percent this year, its most aggressive growth since 1984, when the economy expanded 7.2 percent.
“While there is a great deal of uncertainty about how fast and far this economy will grow in 2021, surveys show an increase in individuals being vaccinated … increased spending intentions and comfort with resuming pre-pandemic behaviors like shopping, travel and family gatherings,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“This ‘feel-better situation’ will likely translate into higher levels of household spending, especially around upcoming holidays like the Fourth of July and spending associated with back-to-work and back-to-school.”
The NRF Review said the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report on current economic conditions, “affirms what the economic data has been signaling”—U.S. growth is starting to accelerate.
Both the Federal Reserve’s assessment and other data show unemployment benefits, government stimulus checks, and tax refunds have provided a major increase in personal income and purchasing power, with consumers “sitting on a stockpile of cash” that could become “a spring-loaded spending mechanism,” Kleinhenz said.
The NRF said the $2.4 trillion saved by households in February alone was about twice the average monthly savings in 2019 and is in addition to savings accumulated over the past year as consumers stayed at home instead of dining out, traveling, or attending entertainment and sporting events.
Related stories will be right here …
In its May issue of the Monthly Economic Review, the NRF said it expects the economy to grow 6.6 percent this year, its most aggressive growth since 1984, when the economy expanded 7.2 percent.
“While there is a great deal of uncertainty about how fast and far this economy will grow in 2021, surveys show an increase in individuals being vaccinated … increased spending intentions and comfort with resuming pre-pandemic behaviors like shopping, travel and family gatherings,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“This ‘feel-better situation’ will likely translate into higher levels of household spending, especially around upcoming holidays like the Fourth of July and spending associated with back-to-work and back-to-school.”
The NRF Review said the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report on current economic conditions, “affirms what the economic data has been signaling”—U.S. growth is starting to accelerate.
Both the Federal Reserve’s assessment and other data show unemployment benefits, government stimulus checks, and tax refunds have provided a major increase in personal income and purchasing power, with consumers “sitting on a stockpile of cash” that could become “a spring-loaded spending mechanism,” Kleinhenz said.
The NRF said the $2.4 trillion saved by households in February alone was about twice the average monthly savings in 2019 and is in addition to savings accumulated over the past year as consumers stayed at home instead of dining out, traveling, or attending entertainment and sporting events.
Additionally, use of consumer credit is up, with outstanding credit in February surging to the highest it’s been since late 2017, according to NRF.
Kleinhenz said the increase in borrowing “highlights a consumer who is growing more confident as the economy accelerates, job growth picks up, and more states lift burdensome restrictions.”
He did caution that last year’s “outsize swings” in economic data brought on by the pandemic, hurricanes, wildfires, and other events would make year-over-year comparisons difficult throughout 2021. He said federal agencies are trying their best with available information to make seasonal adjustments account for the swings.
NRF has revised its retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and restaurants) total for 2020 to $4.02 trillion rather than the $4.06 trillion originally reported.
Growth last year, however, was adjusted upward to 6.9 percent since 2019 retail sales were revised to $3.76 trillion from $3.81 trillion, which means 2020 still broke the record for retail sales growth despite the pandemic.
NRF has forecasted 2021 retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent year-over-year to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
Kleinhenz said the increase in borrowing “highlights a consumer who is growing more confident as the economy accelerates, job growth picks up, and more states lift burdensome restrictions.”
He did caution that last year’s “outsize swings” in economic data brought on by the pandemic, hurricanes, wildfires, and other events would make year-over-year comparisons difficult throughout 2021. He said federal agencies are trying their best with available information to make seasonal adjustments account for the swings.
NRF has revised its retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and restaurants) total for 2020 to $4.02 trillion rather than the $4.06 trillion originally reported.
Growth last year, however, was adjusted upward to 6.9 percent since 2019 retail sales were revised to $3.76 trillion from $3.81 trillion, which means 2020 still broke the record for retail sales growth despite the pandemic.
NRF has forecasted 2021 retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent year-over-year to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion.
More on Policies & Issues
The Latest
FinancialsJul 29, 2026
Kering’s H1 Jewelry Sales Up 14%Boucheron reached record sales while Pomellato found success in its signature collections.
Events & AwardsJul 29, 2026
Harwell Godfrey Designs a Flag for ArkansasShe was one of more than 120 American designers who created flags for the “United Flags of Fashion” project led by CFDA and Vogue.
EditorsJul 29, 2026
Q&A: The Past and Future of Angola’s Diamond Industry Endiama Commercial Director Elton Escrivão knows people have a lot of misperceptions about Angola. He wants to change that.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
ColumnistsJul 28, 2026
Peter Smith: Why Your Job Postings May Be Working Against You Smith reveals the method The Retail Smiths use to help retailers and vendors write better job postings.
Weekly QuizJul 23, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
FinancialsJul 28, 2026
Tiffany & Co., Bulgari Lead the Way for LVMH in H1LVMH’s jewelry and watch brands outperformed the company’s other divisions in an environment the company described as “disrupted.”
CollectionsJul 28, 2026
Lionheart’s New Collection Unites Spiritual Iconography“Sacred Heart” features symbols like crosses, angel wings, the Star of David, and the evil eye as a representation of coexistence.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
Events & AwardsJul 28, 2026
The Edge Funding 2 Scholarships Via 24 Karat Club SEUS The scholarships will go to early-career professionals looking to study gemology, bench work and jewelry design, or store operations.
SurveysJul 27, 2026
Jewelry Leads Luxury Market Amid Stabilization, Bain SaysBain & Company delved into the trends shaping the luxury market, the impact of AI, and more in its recent study.
SourcingJul 27, 2026
‘Rubies’ Goes on Display at Harvard MuseumThe exhibition reveals the gemology, geology, and cultural history of the iconic red gemstone.
TrendsJul 24, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Ode to ‘The Odyssey’From coin pendants to diamond shields, these old world-inspired jewels are the perfect accessory for an epic journey.
TrendsJul 24, 2026
Courtney Leidy’s Silk Cord Pendants Center Unexpected Pairings Our Piece of the Week pairs a checkerboard-cut amethyst with an ivy green silk cord.
PodcastsJul 23, 2026
Episode 7: Reinhold Jewelers on the Power of RelationshipsMildred Marcano Abrams and Yael Reinhold join the podcast to talk community connections, holiday plans, and preserving Reinhold’s legacy.
SourcingJul 23, 2026
De Beers’ Production Jumps 88 Percent in Q2 Production also was up in the first half of 2026 but is expected to “substantially” decrease in H2 as two key mines undergo maintenance.
CollectionsJul 23, 2026
Silvia Furmanovich’s New Collection Travels Back to the 1920s“Art Deco” fuses ancestral techniques, rare materials, and modern perspectives as a tribute to the optimism and curiosity of the movement.
IndependentsJul 23, 2026
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens Casino StoreThe jeweler’s newest store is inside Arkansas’ Saracen Casino Resort.
WatchesJul 23, 2026
Movado Inks Licensing Deal With Kate Spade New YorkThe watch company will design, manufacture, and distribute Kate Spade New York watches.
CollectionsJul 22, 2026
Monica Rich Kosann’s High Jewelry Is FruitfulThe “Enchanted Garden” series features a cherry, lemon, and pear that each hold a little secret inside.
IndependentsJul 22, 2026
Liljenquist Beckstead Opens Rolex New BoutiqueIt’s located in Tysons Galleria, an upscale shopping center in the Washington, D.C., metro area.
Events & AwardsJul 22, 2026
NY Now Returns in August Under New OwnershipThe show, recently acquired by Rockview Management Group, will be held at New York City’s Javits Center from Aug. 2-4.
ColumnistsJul 21, 2026
Sherry Smith: Shattering the Illusion of the ‘Either/Or’ Diamond MarketSmith offers retailers guidance on creating an environment where natural and lab-grown diamonds can both thrive.
Events & AwardsJul 21, 2026
Apollo Funds Completes Emerald AcquisitionFormer Emerald President and CEO Hervé Sedky has transitioned to the role of senior advisor.
CollectionsJul 21, 2026
Graff’s New Butterfly High Jewelry Brooches MetamorphosizeThe 12-piece capsule collection transforms from brooches to pendants.
SourcingJul 21, 2026
Anglo Reportedly Selects Gareth Penny’s Consortium as Top Bidder for De BeersA Botswana government official told lawmakers Anglo has selected The Global Diamond Consortium, an entity chaired by Penny, to buy De Beers.
Policies & IssuesJul 20, 2026
Tariffs on Brazil to Increase But Rough Gemstones ExemptThe new tariff, imposed after a Trump administration study, is 25 percent and will stack on top of existing tariffs.
CollectionsJul 20, 2026
Vhernier Transforms ‘Freccia’ Collection Into High JewelryThe collection from 2014 has been reinterpreted into high jewelry with its signature triangular-shaped elements.
