Policies & Issues

US Economy Could See Fastest Growth Since the ‘80s

Policies & IssuesMay 06, 2021

US Economy Could See Fastest Growth Since the ‘80s

The National Retail Federation expects it to grow nearly 7 percent in 2021 as businesses reopen and consumer confidence continues to rise.

2021_Shop-open-sign.jpg
As stores reopen and consumers increase their spending, the U.S. economy is expected to have its fastest growth in more than three decades, the National Retail Federation said.
Washington—The U.S. economy could see its fastest growth in more than three decades amid business reopenings, employees returning to work, and increased consumer confidence, the National Retail Federation said.

In its May issue of the Monthly Economic Review, the NRF said it expects the economy to grow 6.6 percent this year, its most aggressive growth since 1984, when the economy expanded 7.2 percent.

“While there is a great deal of uncertainty about how fast and far this economy will grow in 2021, surveys show an increase in individuals being vaccinated … increased spending intentions and comfort with resuming pre-pandemic behaviors like shopping, travel and family gatherings,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“This ‘feel-better situation’ will likely translate into higher levels of household spending, especially around upcoming holidays like the Fourth of July and spending associated with back-to-work and back-to-school.”

The NRF Review said the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report on current economic conditions, “affirms what the economic data has been signaling”—U.S.  growth is starting to accelerate. 

Both the Federal Reserve’s assessment and other data show unemployment benefits, government stimulus checks, and tax refunds have provided a major increase in personal income and purchasing power, with consumers “sitting on a stockpile of cash” that could become “a spring-loaded spending mechanism,” Kleinhenz said.

The NRF said the $2.4 trillion saved by households in February alone was about twice the average monthly savings in 2019 and is in addition to savings accumulated over the past year as consumers stayed at home instead of dining out, traveling, or attending entertainment and sporting events. 

 Related stories will be right here … 
Additionally, use of consumer credit is up, with outstanding credit in February surging to the highest it’s been since late 2017, according to NRF. 

Kleinhenz said the increase in borrowing “highlights a consumer who is growing more confident as the economy accelerates, job growth picks up, and more states lift burdensome restrictions.”

He did caution that last year’s “outsize swings” in economic data brought on by the pandemic, hurricanes, wildfires, and other events would make year-over-year comparisons difficult throughout 2021. He said federal agencies are trying their best with available information to make seasonal adjustments account for the swings. 

NRF has revised its retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and restaurants) total for 2020 to $4.02 trillion rather than the $4.06 trillion originally reported. 

Growth last year, however, was adjusted upward to 6.9 percent since 2019 retail sales were revised to $3.76 trillion from $3.81 trillion, which means 2020 still broke the record for retail sales growth despite the pandemic.

NRF has forecasted 2021 retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent year-over-year to between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion. 

The Latest

Lewis Heyman
MajorsJul 18, 2025
Lewis Heyman on Sourcing Gemstones, Post-Retirement Plans

He retired last month after 28 years traveling the world to source the very best gemstones for his family’s jewelry business, Oscar Heyman.

CCWW Designs Multiple Shell Charm Necklace
TrendsJul 18, 2025
Piece of the Week: CCWW Designs’ Shell Charm Necklace

The charm necklace features six nautical charms of shells and coral that founder Christina Puchi collected on Florida’s beaches.

The Plumb Club board members
MajorsJul 18, 2025
Plumb Club Elects New Board Members

The organization elected its youngest vice president as it looks to draw in fresh talent.

an instructor and a student in a bench jewelry classroom
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench Jewelers

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.

Silver, Gold, and Bronze Medals for Italy Olympic Winter Games
CollectionsJul 17, 2025
2026 Winter Olympic Medal Design Symbolizes Unity

The medals feature a split-texture design highlighting the Games’ first time being hosted by two cities and the athletes’ journeys.

Weekly QuizJul 17, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
vimeo screenshot.png
Supplier BulletinJul 17, 2025
The INSTORE Jewelry Show 2025: Your Holiday Preparations, All Wrapped Up!

Sponsored by The INSTORE Jewelry Show 2025

Guinness
SurveysJul 17, 2025
The Most Recommended Brands in the World, According to YouGov

Globally, travel and transportation brands reigned, while in the U.S., alcoholic beverage companies and a lingerie brand took the top spots.

Jewelers of America logo with meetup, State of the Majors, giveaway and massages
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America is Headed to Las Vegas for JCK 2025

The countdown is on for the JCK Las Vegas Show and JA is pulling out all the stops.

Gina Ferranti
IndependentsJul 17, 2025
Gina Ferranti of GiGi Ferranti Jewelry Dies at 59

The Brooklyn-based jewelry designer is remembered as a true artist and a rare talent.

Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott
SourcingJul 17, 2025
Rio Tinto Names New CEO, Production Rises at Diavik

Production at the mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories topped 1 million carats in Q2, the third consecutive quarter of growth.

Jewelers of America Learning Workship Logo
Events & AwardsJul 17, 2025
JA to Hold Learning Workshops This Fall

A new slate of Learning Workshops will take place in Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Georgia.

Gold bracelets and bangles
SurveysJul 16, 2025
Signet Jewelers Falls Lower on NRF’s ‘Top 100’ Retailers List

The middle class is changing its approach to buying jewelry and affordable luxury goods, the NRF said.

Buccellati Opera high jewelry bracelet
FinancialsJul 16, 2025
Richemont’s Jewelry Sales Up 7% in Q1

It marks the third consecutive quarter of growth for Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Buccellati, and Vhernier.

Rolex Datejust ref. 16233
WatchesJul 16, 2025
The Top-Selling Rolex Models of the Last 15 Years, According to Bob’s Watches

The reseller’s market trends report, based on its sales data, also shows exactly how much Rolex prices have jumped since 2010.

Jean Dinh Van Orgue Ring
AuctionsJul 16, 2025
Christie’s To Honor Dinh Van With Exhibition

The auction house will be hosting a retrospective paying tribute to jeweler Jean Dinh Van and his company’s 60th anniversary.

Jake Duneier and Danielle Duneier
IndependentsJul 16, 2025
Clyde Duneier Ushers In Fourth Generation

Jake Duneier and Danielle Duneier-Goldberg have stepped into the roles of CEO and president, respectively.

Boucheron Impermanence Boucheron Dragonfly Earrings and Wisteria Hair Piece
CollectionsJul 15, 2025
Boucheron’s New High Jewelry Calls Attention to Nature’s Impermanence

The “Impermanence” collection contemplates nature through the Japanese art of Ikebana (flower arranging) and philosophy of wabi-sabi.

James Avery Cedar Park
MajorsJul 15, 2025
James Avery Expands to 2 More States

The Texas-based jewelry retailer has set up shop in Tennessee and Arizona.

Eric Ford, Couture’s new brand director and former fine jewelry buyer at Neiman Marcus
Events & AwardsJul 15, 2025
Neiman Marcus Vet Joins Couture as Brand Director

Eric Ford will step into the role, bringing with him decades of experience.

Bench jeweler holding a ring and a tool
MajorsJul 15, 2025
Ben Bridge Jeweler Acquires Olympic Manufacturing

In addition to improved capabilities, the acquisition will allow the jeweler to offer support to other independent jewelers.

Guzema Celestial Blue
CollectionsJul 15, 2025
Guzema Debuts First Colored Gemstone Jewelry

The “Celestial Blue” capsule collection campaign features Olympian Kateryna Sadurska.

Nanis Mykonos Store Exterior and Interior
MajorsJul 14, 2025
Nanis Opens First Store

The seasonal store, located in Mykonos, Greece, offers exclusive events, personal styling, and curated experiences.

Long’s Jewelers Summer of Love promo
IndependentsJul 14, 2025
It’s the Summer of Love at Long’s Jewelers

The New England jeweler is hosting a bridal event for the month of August.

Ethical Gem Fair
SourcingJul 14, 2025
Ethical Gem Fair Heads to Seattle

The trade-only event will host its debut fair in the Emerald City later this month.

The Edge and The Edge Retail Academy Logos
Events & AwardsJul 11, 2025
The Edge’s Annual Conference Returns in September

Its sessions will focus on inventory strategies, staff performance, retention and acquisition, emerging market trends, and more.

Miseno Arco Earrings
CollectionsJul 11, 2025
Piece of the Week: Miseno’s ‘Arco’ Earrings

For its 10th anniversary, Miseno designed the “Arco” earrings based on the Arco Felice, an arch conceptualized in A.D. 95 in Miseno, Italy.

Kelly Osbourne Engagement Ring
TrendsJul 11, 2025
Kelly Osbourne’s Engagement Ring Is Sweet as Honey

Inspired by fiancé Sid Wilson’s nickname for her, the white and yellow diamond ring features a unique honeycomb design.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy