Lab-GrownSep 20, 2023
Lab-Grown Diamond Outlook: Price Declines Aren’t a Deterrent SourcingSep 20, 2023
Natural Diamond Outlook: Indian Diamantaires Navigating Multiple Storms
Economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the rising popularity of lab-grown diamonds are clouding the outlook for mined diamonds.
Diamantaires in India currently face a number of challenges when it comes to natural diamonds, including a post-pandemic decline in consumer demand.
Mumbai—There are dark clouds hovering on the horizon as the Indian diamond industry prepares to enter the last few months of 2023 and look beyond to early 2024.
The clouds have been gathering for a while, the result of multiple smaller storms that have been brewing over the past year or so.
Major markets are seeing an economic slowdown, with the shadow of a possible global recession looming large.
Geopolitical alignments are changing, a factor that has gathered momentum following the start of the war in Ukraine.
These developments are having a big impact on global trade.
To top it off, there has been a sudden alteration in market dynamics within diamond jewelry retail, particularly in the United States, as lab-grown diamonds have made rapid inroads in the engagement ring segment.
Over the last 12 months, production of polished natural diamonds has slowed, dropping well below the levels seen last year.
Figures released by the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) show that between April and August 2023, i.e., the first five months of the Indian fiscal year 2023-2024, exports of polished diamonds have declined by 30 percent year-over-year in value terms, from $10.01 billion to $7.03 billion, and by 28 percent in volume terms, falling to 8 million carats from 11.1 million carats a year ago.
Sluggish Consumer Demand Worldwide
Ajesh Mehta of D. Navinchandra Exports, who is also convener of the Diamond Panel Committee of GJEPC, characterizes the downturn as being the result of “the vicious cycle of market forces.”
“Demand is sluggish across the world,” he explained. “The plateauing of the U.S. market was not entirely unexpected as the stimulus effect had ended and other categories of luxury experiences, like holidays, travel, etc., were once again available to consumers.”
However, the global slowdown has been deeper and wider than expected, he noted.
Diamond market analyst Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting said the no-show from Chinese consumers has hit the industry hardest.
“Indian diamantaires had high expectations after that market opened up in early 2023. Yet, as the year progressed, Chinese demand has remained stagnant. An important chunk of the global market has gone missing.”
GJEPC Executive Director Sabyasachi Ray believes manufacturers of small goods have been most impacted by the lack of demand from the Far East, which they had hoped would balance the end of the surge in demand from the U.S. market.
Additionally, there is another challenge the industry faces in what he characterizes as “mid-size goods,” diamonds between 0.70 and 2.5 carats. U.S. consumers have shown a preference this year for lab-grown diamonds in those sizes.
“India has a significant share in these sizes as well,” he said.
Impact Reaching Supply Side
As often happens, changes in supply patterns have lagged behind the drop in demand.
The inflow of rough diamonds has not slowed at the same pace as exports. In the first five months of this fiscal year, Indian imports have declined by 18 percent in value terms, from $7.9 billion to $6.4 billion, while remaining flat in volume terms.
Recent sales indicate that adjustments are now beginning on the supply side as well.
Observers believe that cutting and polishing of natural diamonds has been around 50 percent of capacity levels during the past year. However, unlike in previous downturns, this has not led to idle wheels and mass layoffs.
Most units have switched to cutting and polishing lab-grown products fairly seamlessly, along with some shortening the work week and cutting wages accordingly.
It is anticipated the traditional closure of diamond factories during the Diwali festival, which falls in mid-November this year, will be longer than usual.
Meanwhile, manufacturers’ stockpiles of polished diamonds are accumulating, even as prices have declined across most sizes.
Discussions With Miners
Against this backdrop, the Indian industry has reached out to major mining companies.
“After extensive consultations among diamantaires, we have communicated with miners and requested them to adjust their supply to market realities,” the GJEPC’s Ray said. “We are hopeful of a positive response so we can all ride out this difficult phase together.”
India’s domestic market provides another ray of hope.
Related stories will be right here …
Ajesh Mehta said, “The buzz at the [new loose] diamond show held as part of IIJS Premiere indicated that demand remains strong within the country, and the trade is looking towards Diwali and wedding sales to provide a boost.”
Prospects for China remain unclear, and the industry hopes that the Hong Kong show at the end of September will provide some hint over which way the winds are blowing, he added.
Depending on the outcomes in these markets, and the steps taken by mining companies, the industry will plan its next moves to balance the supply-demand equation.
The War in Ukraine
India also is gearing up to face new challenges after leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) announced they would be working together to tighten sanctions on Russian goods, including diamonds. The new sanctions reportedly will take effect Jan. 1.
Discussions have been going on at a government-to-government level and the exact details of the restrictions that will be implemented globally remain unclear at this point.
Many in the industry are hoping they will only apply to goods weighing 1 carat and above.
“In our discussions with U.S. officials, we have emphasized that tighter sanctions will hit the livelihoods of millions of artisans and their families,” GJEPC officials have said.
While individual companies with significant business in the U.S. already had initiated measures to ensure segregation within their pipeline following the initial sanctions imposed in 2022, preparations are on now for an industry-wide system.
Trade bodies are putting the finishing touches on a system for tracking all goods above a certain size as they move through the cutting and polishing process in India.
GJEPC officials said once this scheme is in place, an official body will be able to certify segregation of a large spectrum of polished, barring perhaps the very small sizes.
This will ensure sanctioned goods are not sent to G7 markets, they said.
Disruption has become part and parcel of every business today, spurred by a combination of factors ranging from new technologies to political alignments to consumer sentiment.
A senior member of the industry recently averred, “The natural mined diamond manufacturing industry in India appears to be going through such a churning today.”
More on Sourcing
The Latest
EditorsMar 02, 2026
Jewelry at the Actor Awards: Reimagining Hollywood GlamourDiamond jewelry was the star of the event formerly known as the SAG Awards.
SurveysMar 02, 2026
Consumer Confidence Edges Up in FebruaryConsumers were somewhat less worried about the future, though concerns about rising prices and politics remained.
Events & AwardsMar 02, 2026
JVC to Honor Rebecca Foerster at Annual LuncheonFoerster is this year’s Stanley Schechter Award recipient.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
Events & AwardsMar 02, 2026
JFC Names 2026 ‘Facets’ Honorees Sponsorships and tickets to the annual fundraising event, set for May 31, are available now.
Weekly QuizFeb 26, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CrimeFeb 27, 2026
Man Charged in Murders of Father, Son Jewelers in ChicagoChicago police and members of the U.S. Marshals Service tracked down the 35-year-old suspect earlier this week in St. Louis.
MajorsFeb 27, 2026
Jewelers Mutual to Donate $10M to Savannah College of Art and DesignA 10-year alliance has also begun to address the shortage of bench jewelers through scholarships, enhanced programs, and updated equipment.
Brought to you by
DCA Enters a New Chapter in Jewelry EducationWith refreshed branding, a new website, updated courses, and a pathway for growth, DCA is dedicated to supporting retail staff development.
CollectionsFeb 27, 2026
Renato Cipullo Turns Gold into HardstonesThe “Splendente” collection has evolved to feature hardstone letter pendants, including our Piece of the Week, the onyx “R.”
AuctionsFeb 26, 2026
Noonans to Auction Lady Wardington’s JewelryThe jewelry collection belonged to “one of society's most glamorous and beautiful women of the mid-20th century,” said the auction house.
ColumnistsFeb 26, 2026
Practical Ways Jewelers Can Leverage AI in 2026Emmanuel Raheb discusses the rise of “GEO” and the importance of having well-written, quality content on your website.
CrimeFeb 26, 2026
Three Sentenced in California Jewelry HeistEach received around four years for burglarizing a jewelry store and a coffee shop in Simi Valley, California, last May.
Events & AwardsFeb 26, 2026
GIA Names 2026 Jewelry Design Contest Winner, Retires Annual AwardCatherine Aulick, a GIA graduate, received the ninth and final Gianmaria Buccellati Foundation Award for Excellence in Jewelry Design.
TrendsFeb 25, 2026
Engagement Ring Trends 2026: What’s In, and WhyWe asked a jewelry historian, designer, bridal director, and wedding expert what’s trending in engagement rings. Here’s what they said.
SourcingFeb 25, 2026
7 Trends That Could Define the Diamond Industry’s FutureExperts from India weigh in the politics, policies, and market dynamics for diamantaires to monitor in 2026 and beyond.
EditorsFeb 25, 2026
Q&A: Brilliant Earth’s CEO on the New Beverly Hills StoreBeth Gerstein discusses the vibe of the new store, what customers want when fine jewelry shopping today, and the details of “Date Night.”
PodcastsFeb 25, 2026
Episode 2: Jewelry Trends & Does the Red Carpet Matter?Are arm bands poised to make a comeback? Has red-carpet jewelry become boring? Find out on the second episode of the “My Next Question” podcast.
WatchesFeb 25, 2026
Private Equity Firms Write Down Value of Breitling, Report SaysThe Swiss watchmaker is battling declining sales amid a rapid retail expansion, according to a Financial Times report.
CollectionsFeb 25, 2026
Rahaminov Diamonds’ New Campaign Honors Its MatriarchThe campaign celebrates Giustina Pavanello Rahaminov, the co-founder’s wife and matriarch of the family-owned brand, for her 88th birthday.
IndependentsFeb 25, 2026
Borsheims Names 2025 ‘Ike-It’ Award WinnerRachel Bennett, a senior jeweler who has been with Borsheims since 2004, earned the award.
Policies & IssuesFeb 24, 2026
IEEPA Tariffs Terminated, New 10% Tariff Already ImposedAfter the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, President Trump imposed a 10 percent tax on almost all imports via a different law.
IndependentsFeb 24, 2026
Sherry Smith Now Principal Partner at The Retail SmithsThe industry veteran, who was with The Edge Retail Academy for 14 years, joins her husband at the company he founded in 2022.
IndependentsFeb 24, 2026
Yafa Signed Jewels to Open Store in MiamiThe vintage signed jewelry retailer chose Miami due to growing client demand in the city and the greater Latin American region.
WatchesFeb 24, 2026
Chrono24 Names New VP, U.S. General ManagerFormer Flight Club executive Jin Lee will bring his experience from the sneaker world to the pre-owned watch marketplace.
SourcingFeb 23, 2026
Designer Eddie Sakamoto, a Humble Artist, Dies at 72Sakamoto, who died in mid-January following a sudden illness, is remembered for his humility and his masterful, architectural designs.
Events & AwardsFeb 23, 2026
NYCJAOS Announces Four-Day Spring ShowThe April event will feature a new VIP shopping day requiring a special ticket.
TrendsFeb 23, 2026
Dua Lipa Is Bulgari’s New AmbassadorBulgari chose the British-Albanian singer-songwriter for her powerful and enduring voice in contemporary culture, the jeweler said.
