Lab-GrownSep 20, 2023
Lab-Grown Diamond Outlook: Price Declines Aren’t a Deterrent SourcingSep 20, 2023
Natural Diamond Outlook: Indian Diamantaires Navigating Multiple Storms
Economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the rising popularity of lab-grown diamonds are clouding the outlook for mined diamonds.
Diamantaires in India currently face a number of challenges when it comes to natural diamonds, including a post-pandemic decline in consumer demand.
Mumbai—There are dark clouds hovering on the horizon as the Indian diamond industry prepares to enter the last few months of 2023 and look beyond to early 2024.
The clouds have been gathering for a while, the result of multiple smaller storms that have been brewing over the past year or so.
Major markets are seeing an economic slowdown, with the shadow of a possible global recession looming large.
Geopolitical alignments are changing, a factor that has gathered momentum following the start of the war in Ukraine.
These developments are having a big impact on global trade.
To top it off, there has been a sudden alteration in market dynamics within diamond jewelry retail, particularly in the United States, as lab-grown diamonds have made rapid inroads in the engagement ring segment.
Over the last 12 months, production of polished natural diamonds has slowed, dropping well below the levels seen last year.
Figures released by the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) show that between April and August 2023, i.e., the first five months of the Indian fiscal year 2023-2024, exports of polished diamonds have declined by 30 percent year-over-year in value terms, from $10.01 billion to $7.03 billion, and by 28 percent in volume terms, falling to 8 million carats from 11.1 million carats a year ago.
Sluggish Consumer Demand Worldwide
Ajesh Mehta of D. Navinchandra Exports, who is also convener of the Diamond Panel Committee of GJEPC, characterizes the downturn as being the result of “the vicious cycle of market forces.”
“Demand is sluggish across the world,” he explained. “The plateauing of the U.S. market was not entirely unexpected as the stimulus effect had ended and other categories of luxury experiences, like holidays, travel, etc., were once again available to consumers.”
However, the global slowdown has been deeper and wider than expected, he noted.
Diamond market analyst Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting said the no-show from Chinese consumers has hit the industry hardest.
“Indian diamantaires had high expectations after that market opened up in early 2023. Yet, as the year progressed, Chinese demand has remained stagnant. An important chunk of the global market has gone missing.”
GJEPC Executive Director Sabyasachi Ray believes manufacturers of small goods have been most impacted by the lack of demand from the Far East, which they had hoped would balance the end of the surge in demand from the U.S. market.
Additionally, there is another challenge the industry faces in what he characterizes as “mid-size goods,” diamonds between 0.70 and 2.5 carats. U.S. consumers have shown a preference this year for lab-grown diamonds in those sizes.
“India has a significant share in these sizes as well,” he said.
Impact Reaching Supply Side
As often happens, changes in supply patterns have lagged behind the drop in demand.
The inflow of rough diamonds has not slowed at the same pace as exports. In the first five months of this fiscal year, Indian imports have declined by 18 percent in value terms, from $7.9 billion to $6.4 billion, while remaining flat in volume terms.
Recent sales indicate that adjustments are now beginning on the supply side as well.
Observers believe that cutting and polishing of natural diamonds has been around 50 percent of capacity levels during the past year. However, unlike in previous downturns, this has not led to idle wheels and mass layoffs.
Most units have switched to cutting and polishing lab-grown products fairly seamlessly, along with some shortening the work week and cutting wages accordingly.
It is anticipated the traditional closure of diamond factories during the Diwali festival, which falls in mid-November this year, will be longer than usual.
Meanwhile, manufacturers’ stockpiles of polished diamonds are accumulating, even as prices have declined across most sizes.
Discussions With Miners
Against this backdrop, the Indian industry has reached out to major mining companies.
“After extensive consultations among diamantaires, we have communicated with miners and requested them to adjust their supply to market realities,” the GJEPC’s Ray said. “We are hopeful of a positive response so we can all ride out this difficult phase together.”
India’s domestic market provides another ray of hope.
Related stories will be right here …
Ajesh Mehta said, “The buzz at the [new loose] diamond show held as part of IIJS Premiere indicated that demand remains strong within the country, and the trade is looking towards Diwali and wedding sales to provide a boost.”
Prospects for China remain unclear, and the industry hopes that the Hong Kong show at the end of September will provide some hint over which way the winds are blowing, he added.
Depending on the outcomes in these markets, and the steps taken by mining companies, the industry will plan its next moves to balance the supply-demand equation.
The War in Ukraine
India also is gearing up to face new challenges after leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) announced they would be working together to tighten sanctions on Russian goods, including diamonds. The new sanctions reportedly will take effect Jan. 1.
Discussions have been going on at a government-to-government level and the exact details of the restrictions that will be implemented globally remain unclear at this point.
Many in the industry are hoping they will only apply to goods weighing 1 carat and above.
“In our discussions with U.S. officials, we have emphasized that tighter sanctions will hit the livelihoods of millions of artisans and their families,” GJEPC officials have said.
While individual companies with significant business in the U.S. already had initiated measures to ensure segregation within their pipeline following the initial sanctions imposed in 2022, preparations are on now for an industry-wide system.
Trade bodies are putting the finishing touches on a system for tracking all goods above a certain size as they move through the cutting and polishing process in India.
GJEPC officials said once this scheme is in place, an official body will be able to certify segregation of a large spectrum of polished, barring perhaps the very small sizes.
This will ensure sanctioned goods are not sent to G7 markets, they said.
Disruption has become part and parcel of every business today, spurred by a combination of factors ranging from new technologies to political alignments to consumer sentiment.
A senior member of the industry recently averred, “The natural mined diamond manufacturing industry in India appears to be going through such a churning today.”
More on Sourcing
The Latest
MajorsJan 09, 2026
Kendra Scott Taps Activewear Exec as CEO Chris Blakeslee has experience at Athleta and Alo Yoga. Kendra Scott will remain on board as executive chair and chief visionary officer.
SurveysJan 09, 2026
U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Up 4%, Visa, Mastercard SayThe credit card companies’ surveys examined where consumers shopped, what they bought, and what they valued this holiday season.
AuctionsJan 09, 2026
Christie’s Names New Global Managing Director for LuxuryKimberly Miller has been promoted to the role.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
CollectionsJan 09, 2026
Piece of the Week: Lionheart’s ‘Serenity’ Opal CharmThe “Serenity” charm set with 13 opals is a modern amulet offering protection, guidance, and intention, the brand said.
Weekly QuizJan 08, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsJan 08, 2026
Pandora’s New ‘Bridgerton’ Jewels Celebrate Bees, Bows, and Blooms“Bridgerton” actresses Hannah Dodd and Claudia Jessie star in the brand’s “Rules to Love By” campaign.
Events & AwardsJan 08, 2026
Ana Khouri To Receive 2026 Gem Award for High Jewelry ExcellenceFounded by jeweler and sculptor Ana Khouri, the brand is “expanding the boundaries of what high jewelry can be.”
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
TrendsJan 08, 2026
Stuller’s Color of the Year Is a Stark Contrast to Pantone’s WhiteThe jewelry manufacturer and supplier is going with a fiery shade it says symbolizes power and transformation.
CollectionsJan 08, 2026
Gracie Abrams To Front New Chanel Jewelry CampaignThe singer-songwriter will make her debut as the French luxury brand’s new ambassador in a campaign for its “Coco Crush” jewelry line.
MajorsJan 08, 2026
Diamond Council of America Names New Board DirectorsThe nonprofit’s new president and CEO, Annie Doresca, also began her role this month.
ColumnistsJan 07, 2026
Peter Smith: Physical Retail—The Beginning or the End?As the shopping mall model evolves and online retail grows, Smith shares his predictions for the future of physical stores.
Events & AwardsJan 07, 2026
Melee Adds 13 New Designers to NYC ShowThe trade show is slated for Jan. 31-Feb. 2 at The Lighthouse in New York City's Chelsea neighborhood.
TrendsJan 07, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Go for GarnetJanuary’s birthstone comes in a rainbow of colors, from the traditional red to orange, purple, and green.
CrimeJan 06, 2026
2 Jewelers Arrested After TraxNYC Diamond District BrawlFootage of a fight breaking out in the NYC Diamond District was viewed millions of times on Instagram and Facebook.
MajorsJan 06, 2026
Rio Grande Says These Are the Top Personalization Tools for 2026The supplier has a curated list of must-have tools for jewelers doing in-house custom work this year.
MajorsJan 06, 2026
Zales Tests Out A New LookThe Signet Jewelers-owned store, which turned 100 last year, calls its new concept stores “The Edit.”
MajorsJan 06, 2026
LeachGarner Appoints New Director of SalesLinda Coutu is rejoining the precious metals provider as its director of sales.
TrendsJan 05, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: New Year’s EditionSparkle with festive diamond jewelry as we celebrate the beginning of 2026.
IndependentsJan 05, 2026
Jeweler Ben Nighthorse Campbell Dies at 92The master jeweler, Olympian, former senator, and Korean War veteran founded the brand Nighthorse Jewelry.
TrendsJan 05, 2026
Pinterest 2026 Trend Report: Brooches, Bold Gold, Cool BlueIn its annual report, Pinterest noted an increase in searches for brooches, heirloom jewelry, and ‘80s luxury.
MajorsJan 02, 2026
Marc Metrick Out as CEO of Saks Global Executive Chairman Richard Baker will take over the role as rumors swirl that a bankruptcy filing is imminent for the troubled retailer.
Events & AwardsJan 02, 2026
Jan Mohr, Couture’s ‘North Star,’ Dies at 71Mohr had just retired in June after more than two decades as Couture’s retailer liaison.
SourcingJan 02, 2026
IDCA Elects New President, Board of DirectorsShekhar Shah of Real Gems Inc. will serve as president of the Indian Diamond & Colorstone Association in 2026.
CollectionsJan 02, 2026
Lalaounis’ 2026 Good Luck Charm Speaks to ResilienceThis year’s good luck charm features the mythical horse Pegasus, and is our first Piece of the Week of the new year.
EditorsDec 31, 2025
The Top 5 Stories of 2025Articles about crime, engagement rings, and a necklace worn in the World Series generated the most interest among readers.
MajorsDec 30, 2025
Becka Johnson Kibby to Lead Edge Retail AcademyAs part of the leadership transition, Sherry Smith will take on the role of vice president of coaching strategy and development.
