Lab-GrownSep 20, 2023
Lab-Grown Diamond Outlook: Price Declines Aren’t a Deterrent SourcingSep 20, 2023
Natural Diamond Outlook: Indian Diamantaires Navigating Multiple Storms
Economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the rising popularity of lab-grown diamonds are clouding the outlook for mined diamonds.
Diamantaires in India currently face a number of challenges when it comes to natural diamonds, including a post-pandemic decline in consumer demand.
Mumbai—There are dark clouds hovering on the horizon as the Indian diamond industry prepares to enter the last few months of 2023 and look beyond to early 2024.
The clouds have been gathering for a while, the result of multiple smaller storms that have been brewing over the past year or so.
Major markets are seeing an economic slowdown, with the shadow of a possible global recession looming large.
Geopolitical alignments are changing, a factor that has gathered momentum following the start of the war in Ukraine.
These developments are having a big impact on global trade.
To top it off, there has been a sudden alteration in market dynamics within diamond jewelry retail, particularly in the United States, as lab-grown diamonds have made rapid inroads in the engagement ring segment.
Over the last 12 months, production of polished natural diamonds has slowed, dropping well below the levels seen last year.
Figures released by the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) show that between April and August 2023, i.e., the first five months of the Indian fiscal year 2023-2024, exports of polished diamonds have declined by 30 percent year-over-year in value terms, from $10.01 billion to $7.03 billion, and by 28 percent in volume terms, falling to 8 million carats from 11.1 million carats a year ago.
Sluggish Consumer Demand Worldwide
Ajesh Mehta of D. Navinchandra Exports, who is also convener of the Diamond Panel Committee of GJEPC, characterizes the downturn as being the result of “the vicious cycle of market forces.”
“Demand is sluggish across the world,” he explained. “The plateauing of the U.S. market was not entirely unexpected as the stimulus effect had ended and other categories of luxury experiences, like holidays, travel, etc., were once again available to consumers.”
However, the global slowdown has been deeper and wider than expected, he noted.
Diamond market analyst Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting said the no-show from Chinese consumers has hit the industry hardest.
“Indian diamantaires had high expectations after that market opened up in early 2023. Yet, as the year progressed, Chinese demand has remained stagnant. An important chunk of the global market has gone missing.”
GJEPC Executive Director Sabyasachi Ray believes manufacturers of small goods have been most impacted by the lack of demand from the Far East, which they had hoped would balance the end of the surge in demand from the U.S. market.
Additionally, there is another challenge the industry faces in what he characterizes as “mid-size goods,” diamonds between 0.70 and 2.5 carats. U.S. consumers have shown a preference this year for lab-grown diamonds in those sizes.
“India has a significant share in these sizes as well,” he said.
Impact Reaching Supply Side
As often happens, changes in supply patterns have lagged behind the drop in demand.
The inflow of rough diamonds has not slowed at the same pace as exports. In the first five months of this fiscal year, Indian imports have declined by 18 percent in value terms, from $7.9 billion to $6.4 billion, while remaining flat in volume terms.
Recent sales indicate that adjustments are now beginning on the supply side as well.
Observers believe that cutting and polishing of natural diamonds has been around 50 percent of capacity levels during the past year. However, unlike in previous downturns, this has not led to idle wheels and mass layoffs.
Most units have switched to cutting and polishing lab-grown products fairly seamlessly, along with some shortening the work week and cutting wages accordingly.
It is anticipated the traditional closure of diamond factories during the Diwali festival, which falls in mid-November this year, will be longer than usual.
Meanwhile, manufacturers’ stockpiles of polished diamonds are accumulating, even as prices have declined across most sizes.
Discussions With Miners
Against this backdrop, the Indian industry has reached out to major mining companies.
“After extensive consultations among diamantaires, we have communicated with miners and requested them to adjust their supply to market realities,” the GJEPC’s Ray said. “We are hopeful of a positive response so we can all ride out this difficult phase together.”
India’s domestic market provides another ray of hope.
Related stories will be right here …
Ajesh Mehta said, “The buzz at the [new loose] diamond show held as part of IIJS Premiere indicated that demand remains strong within the country, and the trade is looking towards Diwali and wedding sales to provide a boost.”
Prospects for China remain unclear, and the industry hopes that the Hong Kong show at the end of September will provide some hint over which way the winds are blowing, he added.
Depending on the outcomes in these markets, and the steps taken by mining companies, the industry will plan its next moves to balance the supply-demand equation.
The War in Ukraine
India also is gearing up to face new challenges after leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) announced they would be working together to tighten sanctions on Russian goods, including diamonds. The new sanctions reportedly will take effect Jan. 1.
Discussions have been going on at a government-to-government level and the exact details of the restrictions that will be implemented globally remain unclear at this point.
Many in the industry are hoping they will only apply to goods weighing 1 carat and above.
“In our discussions with U.S. officials, we have emphasized that tighter sanctions will hit the livelihoods of millions of artisans and their families,” GJEPC officials have said.
While individual companies with significant business in the U.S. already had initiated measures to ensure segregation within their pipeline following the initial sanctions imposed in 2022, preparations are on now for an industry-wide system.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
Trade bodies are putting the finishing touches on a system for tracking all goods above a certain size as they move through the cutting and polishing process in India.
GJEPC officials said once this scheme is in place, an official body will be able to certify segregation of a large spectrum of polished, barring perhaps the very small sizes.
This will ensure sanctioned goods are not sent to G7 markets, they said.
Disruption has become part and parcel of every business today, spurred by a combination of factors ranging from new technologies to political alignments to consumer sentiment.
A senior member of the industry recently averred, “The natural mined diamond manufacturing industry in India appears to be going through such a churning today.”
More on Sourcing
The Latest
CrimeFeb 06, 2026
Florida Man Sentenced After Selling Fake Native American Jewelry for a Decade Prosecutors say the man attended arts and craft fairs claiming he was a third-generation jeweler who was a member of the Pueblo tribe.
FinancialsFeb 06, 2026
Pandora’s North America GM Departs Amid Executive ChangesNew CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier shared her priorities for the Danish jewelry company this year as part of its fourth-quarter results.
TrendsFeb 06, 2026
Margot Robbie, Jacob Elordi Wear Matching Cece Jewellery Signet RingsOur Piece of the Week picks are these bespoke rings the “Wuthering Heights” stars have been spotted wearing during the film’s press tour.
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench JewelersLaunched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.
MajorsFeb 05, 2026
Pandora to Begin Selling Platinum-Plated JewelryThe introduction of platinum plating will reduce its reliance on silver amid volatile price swings, said Pandora.
Weekly QuizFeb 05, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsFeb 05, 2026
Borsheims to Undergo Massive Renovation in the Spring The Omaha jewelry store’s multi-million-dollar renovation is scheduled to begin in mid-May and take about six months.
CollectionsFeb 05, 2026
Marco Bicego’s Amethyst Collection Travels to a Purple ParadiseThe “Paradise Amethyst” collection focuses on amethyst, pink tourmaline, garnet, and 18-karat yellow gold beads.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
FinancialsFeb 05, 2026
Watches of Switzerland Reports Strong Holiday Results in Q3The retailer credited its Roberto Coin campaign, in part, for boosting its North America sales.
ColumnistsFeb 04, 2026
January Jewelry Sales: More Dollars Spent, Fewer Units Sold Sherry Smith unpacks independent retailers’ January performance and gives tips for navigating the slow-growth year ahead.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
What Designers Should Know About Saks Global’s BankruptcyFrom how to get an invoice paid to getting merchandise returned, JVC’s Sara Yood answers some complex questions.
TrendsFeb 04, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: February Birthstone BlissAmethyst, the birthstone for February, is a gemstone to watch this year with its rich purple hue and affordable price point.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
Marco Bicego Names New Global Marketing DirectorThe Italian jewelry company appointed Matteo Cuelli to the newly created role.
MajorsFeb 04, 2026
Frederick Goldman Updates Leadership TeamThe manufacturer said the changes are designed to improve speed, reliability, innovation, and service.
Policies & IssuesFeb 03, 2026
Tariff Relief on Horizon for India as Trump, Modi Make DealPresident Trump said he has reached a trade deal with India, which, when made official, will bring relief to the country’s diamond industry.
CollectionsFeb 03, 2026
Jade Trau Releases New Charms, Introduces RondellesThe designer’s latest collection takes inspiration from her classic designs, reimagining the motifs in new forms.
WatchesFeb 03, 2026
Casio America Calls Jersey City HomeThe watchmaker moved its U.S. headquarters to a space it said fosters creativity and forward-thinking solutions in Jersey City, New Jersey.
GradingFeb 02, 2026
IGI to Acquire American Gemological Laboratories IGI is buying the colored gemstone grading laboratory through IGI USA, and AGL will continue to operate as its own brand.
CrimeFeb 02, 2026
Ylang 23’s Dallas Store BurglarizedThe Texas jeweler said its team is “incredibly resilient” and thanked its community for showing support.
EditorsFeb 02, 2026
Stars Choose Chokers, Elongated Earrings at 2026 GrammysFrom cool-toned metal to ring stacks, Associate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights the jewelry trends she spotted at the Grammy Awards.
CollectionsFeb 02, 2026
2026 Winter Olympic Medal Design Symbolizes UnityThe medals feature a split-texture design highlighting the fact that the 2026 Olympics are taking place in two different cities.
SurveysJan 30, 2026
These Are the Top Brands of 2026, Says YouGovFrom tech platforms to candy companies, here’s how some of the highest-ranking brands earned their spot on the list.
CollectionsJan 30, 2026
Follow the Beat With Etiq’s ‘Khol’ RingThe “Khol” ring, our Piece of the Week, transforms the traditional Indian Khol drum into playful jewelry through hand-carved lapis.
MajorsJan 30, 2026
Arch Crown’s 2026 ‘Tag & Label’ Catalog Is HereThe catalog includes more than 100 styles of stock, pre-printed, and custom tags and labels, as well as bar code technology products.
CollectionsJan 29, 2026
Ghirardelli’s ‘Chocolocket’ Returns for Valentine’s DayThe chocolatier is bringing back its chocolate-inspired locket, offering sets of two to celebrate “perfect pairs.”
AuctionsJan 29, 2026
These Were Bonhams’ Top 10 Jewelry Lots in 2025The top lot of the year was a 1930s Cartier tiara owned by Nancy, Viscountess Astor, which sold for $1.2 million in London last summer.
SourcingJan 29, 2026
Stuller Website to Mark AGTA-Sourced GemstonesAny gemstones on Stuller.com that were sourced by an AGTA vendor member will now bear the association’s logo.
