Surveys

Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF

SurveysNov 04, 2022

Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF

Plus, how inflation and winter weather could impact holiday spending.

2021_Holiday gifts in bags.jpg
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Washington—Retailers can expect a merry holiday season this year, but sales won’t reach the highs of last year.

The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.

Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.

Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.

Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.

Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.

The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.

“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.

These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.

In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”

A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.

“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
Early shopping is here to stay.

The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.

The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz. 

In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”

Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.

The labor market will be an ongoing challenge for retailers.

NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 669,800 seasonal hires last year.

Notably, the method used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed to accommodate the significant impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment, the NRF said. In 2021, it returned to a traditional employment buildup method.

Some seasonal hires may have been counted in October, said the NRF, as retailers look to bolster their teams before the holiday season.

Retailers looking to hire will have to compete, as always, with other industries, to find the best talent.

“It’s been a tight job market. We still have 800,000 job openings in retail as of the end of September,” said Kleinhenz. “It will be an ongoing challenge.”

Shay described the labor market as “a real conundrum for employers,” but noted it’s also a partial explanation for why consumers have continued to spend.

“[The labor market] is one of the reasons consumers have behaved in such a resilient way, because wages are increasing and there’s pressure on the market and that keeps people spending.”

Shay noted some retailers in need of employees have gotten creative, highlighting UPS’ plan to hire more than 100,000 seasonal workers. The company retains, on average, more than one-third as permanent employees.

 Related stories will be right here … 

Winter weather poses an unpredictable problem.

How retailers fare this holiday season may somewhat depend on where they’re located.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

These sections of the country account for a large chunk of the U.S. population, noted NRF.

However, those located in the northern tier of the country are expected to see wetter and snowier weather.

Online shopping remains popular, but there may be a shift back to in-store shopping.

Online shopping will continue to grow this holiday season.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.

Sales in this category reached $238.9 billion last year, a significant jump as shoppers turned to e-commerce due to the pandemic.

However, the NRF said shoppers are also looking for a more traditional, in-store shopping experience.

The NRF’s holiday survey found 57 percent of respondents plan to shop online, up slightly from 56 percent last year.

The second-most popular destination was department stores (47 percent) followed by discount stores (44 percent).

As for what gifts consumers are hoping for, gift cards topped the list (54 percent), followed by clothing or accessories (49 percent) and electronics (24 percent). Jewelry was in sixth place at 21 percent, up from 20 percent in 2021 and 2020.

Overall retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.

The Latest

 Laura Gallon Joaillerie “Dynasty” ring, Bijules “Compass” bolo tie, Löf “The Orbitalis” ring
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
The 12 Fresh Faces in Couture’s Design Atelier

Discover the dozen up-and-coming brands exhibiting in the Design Atelier for the first time.

Jack Abraham The Royal Ruby Collection
SourcingJun 05, 2025
A Rare Suite of Rubies Has Arrived in Las Vegas

The “Royal Ruby” Collection is a quintet of untreated rubies curated by collector Jack Abraham.

Daymond John
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Daymond John to Give Keynote at JCK Las Vegas

The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.

DCA-student-cert-NJ1872x1052-2.png
Brought to you by
The True Power Behind the Counter: Why Sales Associates Are the Heart of the Jewelry Business

When investing in your jewelry business, it's important not to overlook the most crucial element of success: the sales associates.

Vaishali Banerjee and Pallavi Sharma
MajorsJun 05, 2025
Platinum Guild International Updates Leadership Team

Two existing executives have been given new roles.

Weekly QuizJun 05, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Meredith Tiderington
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Zillion Announces 'Women in STEM' Scholarship Recipient

Meredith Tiderington, an electrical engineering student, was selected for the award.

The Gemological Institute of America’s logo
Lab-GrownJun 04, 2025
GIA Reverting to More General Terminology for Lab-Grown Diamonds

It will quit assigning the stones specific color and clarity grades in favor of applying “new descriptive terminology.”

Article Image 1.png
Brought to you by
Clienteling Isn’t a Buzzword. It’s an Essential Business Model.

More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.

Exterior of the Venetian and the Las Vegas Sphere
Events & AwardsJun 04, 2025
As JCK Talks Returns, Don’t Miss These 12 Sessions

From design trends to sustainability, here’s a roundup of can’t-miss education sessions at JCK Las Vegas.

JCK show
CrimeJun 04, 2025
10 Safety Tips for the Las Vegas Shows

The Jewelers’ Security Alliance offers advice for those attending the annual trade shows.

Amy Curran
MajorsJun 04, 2025
Amy Curran Promoted at Hill & Co.

Her new role is director of strategic initiatives.

The eight rings in Viviana Langhoff’s AU79 jewelry collection
CollectionsJun 03, 2025
In Her Latest Collection, Viviana Langhoff Is Leaning Into Gold

The designer is embracing bold pieces with weight to them in “AU79,” a collection she celebrated with a creative launch party.

Gold and diamond bangles on a pair of jeans
FinancialsJun 03, 2025
Signet Jewelers Sees Turnaround in Q1 With Sales Ticking Up 2%

On an earnings call, CEO J.K. Symancyk discussed what’s working for the company and how it’s preparing for the potential impact of tariffs.

Dakota Johnson as Roberto Coin Brand Ambassador
CollectionsJun 03, 2025
Dakota Johnson Is Roberto Coin’s New Brand Ambassador

The actress stars in the latest campaign set in Venice, Italy, and is set to participate in other creative initiatives for the jeweler.

Mason Kay Jade necklace
GradingJun 03, 2025
Mason-Kay Jade Adds ‘Fei Cui’ to Jade Reports

The company has joined other labs, including GIA and Lotus Gemology, in adopting the Chinese term for "jadeite jade."

Gemfields ruby
SourcingJun 02, 2025
Gemfields’ June Auction to Include 36-Carat Ruby

The large stone will be offered at its June sale along with a selection of secondary-type rubies from a new area of the Montepuez mine.

Adobe Stock image of skyline of Bangkok, Thailand
GradingJun 02, 2025
GSI Opens New Lab in Thailand

Located in Bangkok, the laboratory is Gemological Science International’s 14th location worldwide.

Seaman Schepps pearl earrings
TrendsJun 02, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Three Gems for June

Those born in June have a myriad of options for their birthstone jewelry.

David Allouche
SourcingJun 02, 2025
David Allouche Joins Grandview Klein Diamonds

The diamond industry veteran has been named its senior sales executive.

Movado Connect 2.0 watches
FinancialsMay 30, 2025
Movado’s Q1 Sales Slip Amid ‘Challenging’ Retail Environment

The company plans to raise the prices of select watches to offset the impact of tariffs.

Zoë Chicco Bracelets
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Tariffs & Designers: Navigating Pricing in an Unstable Environment

Between tariffs and the sky-high cost of gold, designers enter this year’s Las Vegas shows with a lot of questions and few answers.

Renato Cipullo Hematite Blaze Necklace
CollectionsMay 30, 2025
Piece of the Week: Renato Cipullo’s ‘Hematite Blaze’ Necklace

Designed by founder Renato and his daughter Serena Cipullo, it showcases a flame motif representing unity and the power of gathering.

Stock image of shipping containers
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Trade Court Declares Trump’s Tariffs Invalid

However, the tariffs remain in effect in the short term, as an appeals court has stayed the U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision.

Britney Spears
CollectionsMay 29, 2025
Britney Spears Files Trademark for New Jewelry Line

The pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.

Inoveo Platinum Grain image.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 29, 2025
Inoveo Platinum Grain, Exclusively Distributed by Stuller

Sponsored by Stuller

Grizzly Mining Pilala emerald
SourcingMay 29, 2025
Grizzly Auctions 6,620-Carat Emerald

It was featured in the miner’s latest sale, which brought in $24.8 million.

GemFind Logo
TechnologyMay 29, 2025
GemFind Launches AI Product Description Software

GemText AI uses artificial intelligence to generate tailored product titles, descriptions, and tags with jewelry-specific language.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy