SurveysOct 06, 2022
5 Things to Know about Holiday Shoppers This SeasonSurveysNov 04, 2022
Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF
Plus, how inflation and winter weather could impact holiday spending.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Washington—Retailers can expect a merry holiday season this year, but sales won’t reach the highs of last year.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
Early shopping is here to stay.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The labor market will be an ongoing challenge for retailers.
NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 669,800 seasonal hires last year.
Notably, the method used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed to accommodate the significant impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment, the NRF said. In 2021, it returned to a traditional employment buildup method.
Some seasonal hires may have been counted in October, said the NRF, as retailers look to bolster their teams before the holiday season.
Retailers looking to hire will have to compete, as always, with other industries, to find the best talent.
“It’s been a tight job market. We still have 800,000 job openings in retail as of the end of September,” said Kleinhenz. “It will be an ongoing challenge.”
Shay described the labor market as “a real conundrum for employers,” but noted it’s also a partial explanation for why consumers have continued to spend.
“[The labor market] is one of the reasons consumers have behaved in such a resilient way, because wages are increasing and there’s pressure on the market and that keeps people spending.”
Shay noted some retailers in need of employees have gotten creative, highlighting UPS’ plan to hire more than 100,000 seasonal workers. The company retains, on average, more than one-third as permanent employees.
Winter weather poses an unpredictable problem.
How retailers fare this holiday season may somewhat depend on where they’re located.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
These sections of the country account for a large chunk of the U.S. population, noted NRF.
However, those located in the northern tier of the country are expected to see wetter and snowier weather.
Online shopping remains popular, but there may be a shift back to in-store shopping.
Online shopping will continue to grow this holiday season.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.
Sales in this category reached $238.9 billion last year, a significant jump as shoppers turned to e-commerce due to the pandemic.
However, the NRF said shoppers are also looking for a more traditional, in-store shopping experience.
The NRF’s holiday survey found 57 percent of respondents plan to shop online, up slightly from 56 percent last year.
The second-most popular destination was department stores (47 percent) followed by discount stores (44 percent).
As for what gifts consumers are hoping for, gift cards topped the list (54 percent), followed by clothing or accessories (49 percent) and electronics (24 percent). Jewelry was in sixth place at 21 percent, up from 20 percent in 2021 and 2020.
Overall retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsJun 03, 2026
Peter Smith: When Top Talent Leaves and What It Says About YouSmith discusses how managers should handle a top performer's exit, warning that a poor response could have a lasting impact.
GradingJun 03, 2026
GIA’s Tracr Investment Is First Step Toward Industry-Owned PlatformThe Gemological Institute of America is now a 30 percent stakeholder in Tracr, the De Beers-backed blockchain for diamonds.
WatchesJun 03, 2026
The 1916 Company Taking Pre-Owned Rolexes on the Road, AgainThe retailer is bringing Rolex Certified Pre-Owned watches to five U.S. cities in 2026 for collectors to see, try on, and purchase.
Brought to you by
All Eyes on Gold Prices. Alternatives to Look For. And What to BEWARE of in VegasAs gold prices rise, today’s retailers are looking for alternatives at prices that will appeal to wider audiences.
IndependentsJun 03, 2026
Jessica Alba Is the New Face of Gabriel & Co.The actress and entrepreneur stars in the jeweler’s new campaign that celebrates life’s quiet moments.
Weekly QuizMay 28, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TrendsJun 03, 2026
State of Design: Only the Innovative Will SurviveThe price of gold has risen, affecting the number of pieces designers make, the materials they use, and how they position themselves.
FinancialsJun 02, 2026
Signet Jewelers’ Q1 Sales Up 2% As It Focuses on ‘Core Four’ The jewelry retailer is zeroing in on Zales, Jared, Kay Jewelers, and Blue Nile as it looks to create unique brand identities for each.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
SourcingJun 02, 2026
Leader Appointed for Botswana’s Diamonds for Development Fund Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, a development economist, will head the fund created to help Botswana diversify its economy.
WatchesJun 02, 2026
Watch Industry Veteran James Marks Joins Sotheby’sSotheby’s has appointed the former Phillips executive as its global head of private sales and retail in its watches division.
AuctionsJun 02, 2026
Sotheby’s to Auction 10-Carat Blue Diamond, 1960s Harry Winston Necklace A private collection of five Paraíba tourmalines also will be up for sale at Sotheby’s High Jewelry auction in New York, scheduled for June 16.
IndependentsJun 02, 2026
State of Retail: 6 Things Retailers Should Know About Consumers TodayFrom Gen Z’s view of luxury to “doom spending,” these are the six consumer trends to note this year.
Events & AwardsJun 01, 2026
Design Atelier Brands Have a Big Night at Emotional Couture Design AwardsThe show started by honoring Mildred Marcano, ended with a tearful Beth Anne Bonanno, and recognized a dozen-plus designers in between.
SourcingJun 01, 2026
RapNet Rebranding as Rapaport TradeThe revamped online diamond marketplace will feature pricing intelligence and data-driven tools for more efficient buying and selling.
SourcingJun 01, 2026
Gemfields’ Higher-Quality Emerald Auction Achieves $26.8MThe miner said demand for higher-quality emeralds is stable, but there is notable caution in the market.
CollectionsMay 29, 2026
Cultus Artem’s Necklace Is the Oasis in Las Vegas’ DesertThe “River of Heaven” necklace, our Piece of the Week debuting at Couture, combines 26 salt and pepper diamonds spaced by Tahitian pearls.
IndependentsMay 29, 2026
Meet the 2026 Retailer Hall of Fame InducteesThis year’s inductees include second-, third-, and fourth-generation jewelers.
Events & AwardsMay 28, 2026
JCK Announces Jesse Itzler as 2026 Keynote SpeakerThe author, speaker, and entrepreneur will give his presentation, “Spiritual Billionaire,” on Saturday morning.
Events & AwardsMay 28, 2026
JCK Rocks To Ride With NellyThree-time Grammy award-winning artist Nelly is set to perform at the annual event at Tao Beach on Sunday night.
MajorsMay 28, 2026
Signet Jewelers to Buy The Clear Cut Signet will integrate the online-only, natural diamond-focused jeweler into Blue Nile, which it wants to position as a higher-end retailer.
CollectionsMay 28, 2026
Meet The 17 Newcomers to Couture’s Design AtelierThese up-and-coming jewelry brands are bringing their distinct aesthetic and unique point-of-view to the Design Atelier for the first time.
GradingMay 28, 2026
GCAL By Sarine Launches 8X Cushion CutThe lab’s proprietary diamond cut grade has been expanded to include the popular fancy shape.
Events & AwardsMay 27, 2026
5 Security Tips for Las Vegas Jewelry Market Week 2026This year, it’s what could happen outside of show hours that worries JSA Executive Vice President Scott Guginsky.
ColumnistsMay 27, 2026
What Jewelers Can Learn From Luxury Fashion’s Digital PlaybookHigh-end fashion houses know how to emotionally connect with customers online. Retail jewelers should take note, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
Events & AwardsMay 27, 2026
Couture’s ‘The Iridescence’ Will Showcase 7 Emerging Jewelry DesignersThe designers are the third cohort of mentees from the show’s Belonging @ Couture mentorship program.
ColumnistsMay 26, 2026
The Key Mindset for Better Trade Show BuyingBuying discipline at trade shows starts with clarity about your inventory levels, Smith writes.
Events & AwardsMay 26, 2026
12 JCK Talks Sessions to Add to Your Las Vegas ScheduleThe trade show’s education series returns, with sessions on retail trends, AI, watches, marketing, corporate responsibility, and more.
