SurveysOct 06, 2022
5 Things to Know about Holiday Shoppers This SeasonSurveysNov 04, 2022
Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF
Plus, how inflation and winter weather could impact holiday spending.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Washington—Retailers can expect a merry holiday season this year, but sales won’t reach the highs of last year.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
Early shopping is here to stay.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The labor market will be an ongoing challenge for retailers.
NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 669,800 seasonal hires last year.
Notably, the method used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed to accommodate the significant impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment, the NRF said. In 2021, it returned to a traditional employment buildup method.
Some seasonal hires may have been counted in October, said the NRF, as retailers look to bolster their teams before the holiday season.
Retailers looking to hire will have to compete, as always, with other industries, to find the best talent.
“It’s been a tight job market. We still have 800,000 job openings in retail as of the end of September,” said Kleinhenz. “It will be an ongoing challenge.”
Shay described the labor market as “a real conundrum for employers,” but noted it’s also a partial explanation for why consumers have continued to spend.
“[The labor market] is one of the reasons consumers have behaved in such a resilient way, because wages are increasing and there’s pressure on the market and that keeps people spending.”
Shay noted some retailers in need of employees have gotten creative, highlighting UPS’ plan to hire more than 100,000 seasonal workers. The company retains, on average, more than one-third as permanent employees.
Winter weather poses an unpredictable problem.
How retailers fare this holiday season may somewhat depend on where they’re located.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
These sections of the country account for a large chunk of the U.S. population, noted NRF.
However, those located in the northern tier of the country are expected to see wetter and snowier weather.
Online shopping remains popular, but there may be a shift back to in-store shopping.
Online shopping will continue to grow this holiday season.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.
Sales in this category reached $238.9 billion last year, a significant jump as shoppers turned to e-commerce due to the pandemic.
However, the NRF said shoppers are also looking for a more traditional, in-store shopping experience.
The NRF’s holiday survey found 57 percent of respondents plan to shop online, up slightly from 56 percent last year.
The second-most popular destination was department stores (47 percent) followed by discount stores (44 percent).
As for what gifts consumers are hoping for, gift cards topped the list (54 percent), followed by clothing or accessories (49 percent) and electronics (24 percent). Jewelry was in sixth place at 21 percent, up from 20 percent in 2021 and 2020.
Overall retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsSep 10, 2026
Lagos Founder Steven Lagos Steps Down as CEO Keith Rolfe, CFO and COO of Lagos, is now at the jewelry brand’s helm while Steven takes on the role of executive chairman.
CrimeSep 10, 2026
FBI Offers $50K Reward for ‘Most Wanted’ Fugitive in $1M Jewelry HeistAlberto Perez-Elias is one of four men charged in the armed robbery of a Cape Coral, Florida, jewelry store and remains at large.
AuctionsSep 10, 2026
Massive Matched Pair of Paraíba Tourmalines Head to Sotheby’sThe “Kat Florence Luminas” will be offered together as one lot and could fetch up to $637,000.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
SourcingSep 10, 2026
AGTA Announces 4 Newly Elected DirectorsFour directors were elected to the AGTA board and will serve three-year terms beginning in February.
Weekly QuizSep 03, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsSep 10, 2026
Former Sotheby’s, Christie’s Exec Appointed CEO of Julien’s Auctions Ken Citron joins the celebrity memorabilia-focused auction house ahead of its first week-long series of events in Abu Dhabi.
FinancialsSep 09, 2026
Signet Jewelers to ‘Double Down’ on Blue Nile Amid Strong SalesThe jewelry retailer said it sees opportunity at higher price points, particularly in natural diamonds for bridal and fashion.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
IndependentsSep 09, 2026
Sarah Leonard Fine Jewelers Closes After Nearly 80 YearsThe Los Angeles-based, family-owned jeweler was founded by Lenny and Sunny Friedman in 1946.
SourcingSep 09, 2026
Fura Gems Notes ‘Remarkable’ Interest in Larger Rubies at Latest SaleThe auction, held in Bangkok, was 96 percent sold by lot, with nearly 411,000 carats of Mozambiquan rubies sold.
MajorsSep 09, 2026
Stuller’s Latest Catalog Includes Its New Demi-Fine CollectionFine Jewelry 2027-2028 has more than 900 new styles, including silver, gold-filled, gold-plated sterling silver, and vermeil jewelry.
Policies & IssuesSep 09, 2026
8 Key Changes the FTC Made to the Jewelry Guides: A Refresher Learn more about the new terms for lab-grown diamonds and composite gemstones, and the major changes in store for precious metals jewelry.
IndependentsSep 08, 2026
Ricky Bromberg, Longtime President of Bromberg & Co., Dies at 67 Bromberg is remembered as a Southern gentleman who always wore a suit and tie and treated others with kindness.
TrendsSep 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: A Hot Take on September’s Birthstone With high durability and a wide range of colors to choose from, sapphires may be the ultimate birthstone, Gizzi claims.
ColumnistsSep 08, 2026
Peter Smith: Humor Is No Laughing MatterLaughter is often considered a distraction in the workplace, but it has benefits for both staff and management, Peter Smith writes.
MajorsSep 08, 2026
Former Tiffany & Co. Exec Joins Exemplar Luxury GroupGretchen Koback Pursel is the new chief people officer at the company formerly known as Saks Global.
IndependentsSep 04, 2026
Orloff Jewelers Will Soon Unveil a Bigger, Better LocationThe California jeweler is renovating its store in Fresno, with plans to show off the new space in December.
CollectionsSep 04, 2026
Chelsea Gabrielle Transforms Pilates Reformer Springs Into Ring A lifelong practitioner of Pilates, Gabrielle looked to the springs’ tension and suspension when creating this ring, our Piece of the Week.
Events & AwardsSep 04, 2026
JCK Industry Fund Accepting 2027 ApplicationsThe deadline to apply is Nov. 13.
AuctionsSep 04, 2026
Christie's Names New Global Head of WatchesThe auction house has promoted Remi Guillemin, formerly its head of watches for the Americas and EMEA, to the role.
EditorsSep 03, 2026
Q&A: Simon G.’s CEO on Why He Won’t Use AI for Jewelry DesignZaven Ghanimian discussed the value of human craftsmanship and where the implementation of artificial intelligence does work.
Events & AwardsSep 03, 2026
Here Are the First Recipients of Nina Pugliese Memorial Scholarship Jewelers of America also revealed the recipients of the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship and its own scholarship programs.
WatchesSep 03, 2026
Robert Pattinson Joins Jaeger-LeCoultre as Brand AmbassadorThe British actor, known for his roles in “Twilight” and “The Odyssey,” will star in a campaign for the Master Control Chronometre.
CollectionsSep 03, 2026
Sydney Evan Celebrates 25 Years With 4 New CollectionsThe “Confetti Disco,” “Champagne Cheers,” “Tuxedo,” and “Classic Punk” jewelry collections each capture a distinct spirit of celebration.
CrimeSep 02, 2026
CA Jeweler Gets 5 Years in ‘Phantom Rolex’ Ponzi SchemeNelson Holdo of Newport Beach pleaded guilty to multiple counts of felony grand theft and writing bad checks and was sentenced Monday.
AuctionsSep 02, 2026
If You Love Cats, This Jewelry Auction Is for YouCat ladies of the jewelry world, unite. Sandy Lerner’s “significant” collection of cat jewelry and other objects is going up for auction.
MajorsSep 02, 2026
Messika Names Former Omega Exec as New President, CEO of AmericasArnaud Michon, the former Omega USA President, will now lead Messika’s Americas region during its international development.
