SurveysOct 06, 2022
5 Things to Know about Holiday Shoppers This SeasonSurveysNov 04, 2022
Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF
Plus, how inflation and winter weather could impact holiday spending.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Washington—Retailers can expect a merry holiday season this year, but sales won’t reach the highs of last year.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
Early shopping is here to stay.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The labor market will be an ongoing challenge for retailers.
NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 669,800 seasonal hires last year.
Notably, the method used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed to accommodate the significant impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment, the NRF said. In 2021, it returned to a traditional employment buildup method.
Some seasonal hires may have been counted in October, said the NRF, as retailers look to bolster their teams before the holiday season.
Retailers looking to hire will have to compete, as always, with other industries, to find the best talent.
“It’s been a tight job market. We still have 800,000 job openings in retail as of the end of September,” said Kleinhenz. “It will be an ongoing challenge.”
Shay described the labor market as “a real conundrum for employers,” but noted it’s also a partial explanation for why consumers have continued to spend.
“[The labor market] is one of the reasons consumers have behaved in such a resilient way, because wages are increasing and there’s pressure on the market and that keeps people spending.”
Shay noted some retailers in need of employees have gotten creative, highlighting UPS’ plan to hire more than 100,000 seasonal workers. The company retains, on average, more than one-third as permanent employees.
Winter weather poses an unpredictable problem.
How retailers fare this holiday season may somewhat depend on where they’re located.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
These sections of the country account for a large chunk of the U.S. population, noted NRF.
However, those located in the northern tier of the country are expected to see wetter and snowier weather.
Online shopping remains popular, but there may be a shift back to in-store shopping.
Online shopping will continue to grow this holiday season.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.
Sales in this category reached $238.9 billion last year, a significant jump as shoppers turned to e-commerce due to the pandemic.
However, the NRF said shoppers are also looking for a more traditional, in-store shopping experience.
The NRF’s holiday survey found 57 percent of respondents plan to shop online, up slightly from 56 percent last year.
The second-most popular destination was department stores (47 percent) followed by discount stores (44 percent).
As for what gifts consumers are hoping for, gift cards topped the list (54 percent), followed by clothing or accessories (49 percent) and electronics (24 percent). Jewelry was in sixth place at 21 percent, up from 20 percent in 2021 and 2020.
Overall retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
Supplier BulletinAug 13, 2026
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSponsored by American Gem Trade Association
FinancialsAug 13, 2026
Pandora’s ‘Talisman’ Collection Shines, Lab-Grown Diamond Sales FallIn the United States, second-quarter sales were flat amid soft consumer sentiment and lower in-store traffic.
AuctionsAug 13, 2026
This Gold Cadbury ‘Conundrum’ Egg Set a World Auction RecordThe 22-karat gold egg, sold at Batemans Auctioneers in the U.K., was part of a 1980s treasure hunt ad campaign for Cadbury Creme Eggs.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
SourcingAug 13, 2026
2,488-Carat Diamond, Largest Found in Botswana, Has a New Owner Lucara Diamond Corp., which recovered the “Motswedi” diamond from the Karowe mine, sold the stone for an undisclosed amount.
Weekly QuizAug 07, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsAug 13, 2026
John Hardy Infuses ‘Icon,’ ‘Heishi’ Collections with ColorThe expanded collections now feature hand-cut gemstones like topaz, tanzanite, chrysoprase, chalcedony, smoky quartz, and fire opal.
Lab-GrownAug 13, 2026
Jean Dousset Opens Third StoreThe lab-grown diamond jewelry brand’s newest boutique is in Westfield Valley Fair in Santa Clara, California.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
SourcingAug 12, 2026
Eshed-Gemstar on the Painstaking Process of Cutting ‘The Legacy Emerald’The gemstone supplier and manufacturer acquired the remarkable 104-gram Zambian emerald at Gemfields’ auction in May.
CrimeAug 12, 2026
Elderly NYC Woman Targeted in Jewelry Swap SchemeTwo suspects offered to trade the woman a “winning” lottery ticket for her jewelry.
SourcingAug 12, 2026
Another Diamond Mine Poised to CloseFinsch has been in business rescue since May, and owner Petra Diamonds said it sees no viable path forward for the mine.
CrimeAug 12, 2026
Jewelry Store Employee Gets 20 Years to Life in Choking Death of BossMichel Patrick DeSalles was sentenced after pleading guilty to the 2017 murder of Omid Gholian, who owned a jewelry store in Manhattan.
MajorsAug 12, 2026
Frederick Goldman Names New SVP of SalesLongtime industry executive Beth Miller has taken on the role.
AuctionsAug 11, 2026
Verdura Unicorn Brooch With Royal Connection Up for Auction The brooch was owned by Virginia Fortune Ryan Ogilvy, who served as a lady of the bedchamber to Queen Elizabeth II for nearly 50 years.
MajorsAug 11, 2026
Signet Jewelers Selects Mattel Exec to Lead Zales, BanterJamie Cygielman will take on the role on Aug. 24.
IndependentsAug 11, 2026
Polly’s Fine Jewelry Co-Owner Richard Moore Dies at 69Moore, Polly’s husband, is remembered as a family man with an easygoing spirit and a love for sports and the outdoors.
ColumnistsAug 11, 2026
Creative Connecting: How to Sell Colored Gemstones to Gen ZDuvall O’Steen and Jen Cullen Williams share the best ways to display, present, and explain colored gemstones to younger customers.
Events & AwardsAug 11, 2026
NAJA Announces Lineup For 2026 Fall Virtual ConferenceThe mid-year conference for jewelry and watch appraisers will take place Sept. 5-6 on Zoom.
TechnologyAug 10, 2026
Colorado Jeweler Launches Customization Tool He Built HimselfHonest Hands Ring Co. Founder Benjamin Bosworth shared his thoughts on jewelry technology and why AI can never replace the human element.
MajorsAug 10, 2026
QVC Exits Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, Names New Interim CEOQVC Group President and CEO David Rawlinson is temporarily being replaced by a familiar face, former QVC CEO Mike George.
CollectionsAug 10, 2026
State Property Puts a Ripple in the ‘The Voyager’ CollectionThe brand also added two one-of-a-kind brown diamond pieces to the “Sanssouci” series of its “Gardens” collection.
MajorsAug 10, 2026
And IJO’s 2026 Vendor of the Year Is … Ostbye took home top vendor honors at the Independent Jewelers Organization’s show, held last month in Kentucky.
Supplier BulletinAug 07, 2026
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsSponsored by Stratus Estate Buyers
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Retail Veteran Pam Cloud Appointed President of Blue NileCloud, who will officially join Blue Nile on Monday, spent 26 years at Tiffany & Co. and founded jewelry brand Roseate.
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Pandora Appoints Paulo Garcia as New CFO Garcia will take over from the company’s current CFO, Anders Boyer, who is retiring at the end of November.
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Etsy to Lay Off 12% of WorkforceEtsy CEO Kruti Patel Goyal explained why the company is letting go more than 200 employees as its performance improves.
TrendsAug 07, 2026
Look Ahead with Syna’s Binoculars PendantThe “Star Gazer” pendant, our Piece of the Week, is Syna’s tribute to curiosity and the discovery of something new.
