SurveysOct 06, 2022
5 Things to Know about Holiday Shoppers This SeasonSurveysNov 04, 2022
Holiday Sales to See Slowed Growth, Says NRF
Plus, how inflation and winter weather could impact holiday spending.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Washington—Retailers can expect a merry holiday season this year, but sales won’t reach the highs of last year.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
The National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast Thursday and is expecting retail sales to grow between 6 to 8 percent year-over-year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year, holiday retail sales were up nearly 14 percent year-over-year to a record-breaking $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 5 percent, said the NRF, with the pandemic spending of recent years accounting for “considerable” gains.
Here are five key takeaways from the NRF’s holiday forecast.
Inflation remains a top concern for holiday shoppers.
The Federal Reserve is continuing its fight against inflation, raising interest rates six times this year, but rising prices are still weighing on consumers.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay described consumer behavior as more thoughtful and cautious during a forecast call Thursday.
“We know that lower- and middle-income consumers are feeling the most pressure when it comes to inflation,” said Shay, noting more of their income is going to housing, rent, energy, and food costs, leaving less for gifts and other holiday expenses.
These households are expected to rely more on their savings and credit to purchase holiday gifts.
In contrast, higher income households are expected to spend significantly more on average on holiday gifts, seasonal items, and other retail categories.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Consumers are worried about inflation. It’s on the top of their minds.”
A recent KPMG holiday survey came to the same conclusion, finding that inflation topped the list of shopper concerns, with 85 percent of those surveyed saying they were at least somewhat concerned about inflation.
“But they still have the ability to spend,” Kleinhenz added, noting consumers are supported by job growth, rising wages, and the ability to tap into savings.
Early shopping is here to stay.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but the holiday season has been extending into fall for the last decade, it noted.
The early shopping trend is due in part to concerns about inflation and product availability, said Kleinhenz.
In response to inflation, 46 percent of holiday shoppers said they would be browsing or buying before November, as per the NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
“Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October,” said Kleinhenz. “While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items, such as decorations and food, which is in line with the average for the last 10 years.
The labor market will be an ongoing challenge for retailers.
NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 669,800 seasonal hires last year.
Notably, the method used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed to accommodate the significant impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment, the NRF said. In 2021, it returned to a traditional employment buildup method.
Some seasonal hires may have been counted in October, said the NRF, as retailers look to bolster their teams before the holiday season.
Retailers looking to hire will have to compete, as always, with other industries, to find the best talent.
“It’s been a tight job market. We still have 800,000 job openings in retail as of the end of September,” said Kleinhenz. “It will be an ongoing challenge.”
Shay described the labor market as “a real conundrum for employers,” but noted it’s also a partial explanation for why consumers have continued to spend.
“[The labor market] is one of the reasons consumers have behaved in such a resilient way, because wages are increasing and there’s pressure on the market and that keeps people spending.”
Shay noted some retailers in need of employees have gotten creative, highlighting UPS’ plan to hire more than 100,000 seasonal workers. The company retains, on average, more than one-third as permanent employees.
Winter weather poses an unpredictable problem.
How retailers fare this holiday season may somewhat depend on where they’re located.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
These sections of the country account for a large chunk of the U.S. population, noted NRF.
However, those located in the northern tier of the country are expected to see wetter and snowier weather.
Online shopping remains popular, but there may be a shift back to in-store shopping.
Online shopping will continue to grow this holiday season.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.
Sales in this category reached $238.9 billion last year, a significant jump as shoppers turned to e-commerce due to the pandemic.
However, the NRF said shoppers are also looking for a more traditional, in-store shopping experience.
The NRF’s holiday survey found 57 percent of respondents plan to shop online, up slightly from 56 percent last year.
The second-most popular destination was department stores (47 percent) followed by discount stores (44 percent).
As for what gifts consumers are hoping for, gift cards topped the list (54 percent), followed by clothing or accessories (49 percent) and electronics (24 percent). Jewelry was in sixth place at 21 percent, up from 20 percent in 2021 and 2020.
Overall retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsJun 24, 2026
The Revenue Hiding Between Your Counter and Your Online CartJewelers are missing out by not offering this one key add-on at the online point of sale, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
CollectionsJun 24, 2026
Greenwich St. Jewelers, Jewel Boxing’s Latest Drop Is On-TrendThe fourth collaborative collection from the retailer and jewelry content creator focuses on gemstone charms and strands of colorful beads.
Events & AwardsJun 24, 2026
AGTA Accepting Entries for Spectrum 2026This year’s AGTA Spectrum & Cutting Edge Awards will feature two new categories.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
SourcingJun 24, 2026
Columbia Gem House To Offer Alexandrite Melee OnlineThe collection features traceable alexandrite from Brazil in calibrated sizes that is sorted by grade.
Weekly QuizJun 17, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
MajorsJun 24, 2026
CaratLane Names New Chief Sales OfficerDhaval Raja has been appointed to the role.
CollectionsJun 23, 2026
Francesca Villa Goes ‘On the Road’The capsule collection looks to vintage trunk pins that echo the spirit of speed, freedom, and the mythology of the American road trip.
Brought to you by
Building the Future of Jewelry Retail: DCA Expands Education, Leadership Development, and Workforce SolutionsDCA is preparing the next generation of professionals by supporting workforce development, leadership growth, and career advancement.
SourcingJun 23, 2026
New Paraíba Tourmaline Source Reportedly Discovered in EthiopiaSSEF issued a notice about the potential new source of the sought-after gemstone, citing “credible reports” from trade sources.
MajorsJun 23, 2026
Etsy Says ‘Shop Other Jeffs’ This Prime DayAs Amazon Prime Day kicks off, Etsy is encouraging shoppers to support small businesses.
Events & AwardsJun 23, 2026
AGA Announces 2026 Scholarship WinnerCole Winward is the recipient of 2026 AGA Gemological Scholarship.
EditorsJun 22, 2026
15 Pieces of Jewelry That Brought Us Joy in Vegas Whether they evoked nostalgia, wonder, or laughter, these jewels put a smile on our faces.
Events & AwardsJun 22, 2026
Plans Announced for New Trade Show in BaselScheduled for April 2027, Basilia will be the first watch and jewelry trade show held in Basel since the collapse of Baselworld in 2020.
Events & AwardsJun 22, 2026
Gem Awards Opens 2027 Nomination PeriodSubmissions for the milestone 25th annual Gem Awards will be accepted across three categories from now through July 31.
WatchesJun 22, 2026
Snoopy Inspires New ‘Flying Ace’ Ball WatchThe beloved beagle dons his aviator outfit for the new Engineer Master II Snoopy Flying Ace timepiece.
AuctionsJun 18, 2026
Paraíba Tourmalines Sell for $3.4M at Sotheby'sThe recent high jewelry auction, which also featured the sale of a 10-carat blue diamond, was “a celebration of color.”
CollectionsJun 18, 2026
Michelle Obama Wears Almasika Earrings Symbolizing Feminine PowerShe wore the “Le Cauri Endiamanté” earrings, our Piece of the Week, in the Obamas’ first dual portrait for the Obama Presidential Center.
PodcastsJun 17, 2026
Episode 6: Las Vegas 2026-Trends, Traffic, Broken BathroomsCouture’s Michelle Orman joins Amanda Gizzi and Michelle Graff for this special post-Market Week episode of My Next Question.
GradingJun 17, 2026
SSEF Issues Warning on Refilled EmeraldsThe lab is seeing emeralds with filler added post-testing enter the market, accompanied by reports that indicate little to no treatment.
WatchesJun 17, 2026
Patek Philippe’s ‘Visionary’ Leader Philippe Stern Dies at 88 The third generation of the Stern family to head Patek Philippe, he navigated the “quartz crisis” and preserved the brand’s independence.
MajorsJun 17, 2026
James Avery to Revamp In-Store Retail ExperienceThe Texas-based jeweler is gradually rolling out a new experience-forward layout in its stores.
MajorsJun 17, 2026
Seahawks’ Super Bowl Ring Blends Meaningful Design, Technical CraftsmanshipThe Super Bowl LX champions were honored with diamond and blue sapphire rings by Jason of Beverly Hills.
Policies & IssuesJun 17, 2026
Community for Ethical Jewelry Names New Executive DirectorMarianna Smirnova previously spent a decade working with the Responsible Minerals Initiative, in addition to other relevant roles.
MajorsJun 16, 2026
5 Things to Know About the 2026 NBA Championship TrophyThe New York Knicks took home the Larry O'Brien Trophy crafted by Tiffany & Co.
TrendsJun 16, 2026
Post-Vegas Jewelry Trend Report: Big Beads, Western Flair, White MetalsAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco lists the trends she spotted during Jewelry Market Week that will dominate the second half of 2026.
SourcingJun 16, 2026
GemGuide Updates Ruby PricesIts app now reflects increased prices for Mozambique ruby, as well as changes to its Burma ruby charts.
MajorsJun 16, 2026
Sasha Primak Hires New Design DirectorThe manufacturer has tapped Alicia Arnold, the former director of custom design at Tiny Jewel Box.
