Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
AuctionsOct 27, 2025
Napoleon Left This Brooch Behind, And Now It’s Up For AuctionIt is part of Sotheby’s “Royal & Noble Jewels” sale along with an ornate hair ornament and an old mine-cut light pink diamond ring.
Events & AwardsOct 27, 2025
Hill Management Group Hired to Help Atlanta Jewelry ShowHill Management Group will oversee, market, and produce next year’s spring show.
CrimeOct 27, 2025
Arrests Made in Louvre Jewel Heist One of the individuals was apprehended at the airport as he was trying to flee the country.
Brought to you by
DESERT DIAMONDS: The Newest Trend in Natural Diamond JewelryFrom sunlit whites to smoky whiskeys, introduce your clients to extraordinary diamonds in colors as unique as their love.
MajorsOct 27, 2025
Target to Cut 1,800 Corporate JobsThe retailer, which has faced struggling sales in recent quarters, is looking to streamline its operations.
Weekly QuizOct 16, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsOct 24, 2025
Bonhams Under New Ownership, Top Executives ReplacedLondon-based investment firm Pemberton Asset Management acquired the auction house for an undisclosed amount.
GradingOct 24, 2025
DMIA to Hold Diamond Testing Instrument DemoThe workshop will give attendees the chance to try out and ask questions about three different diamond verification instruments.
Brought to you by
Are Earrings an Overlooked Category? What Retailers Need to Know NowAs the holiday season quickly approaches, consider stocking one category that sometimes gets overlooked: earrings.
CrimeOct 24, 2025
Video Emerges of Louvre Jewelry Robbers Fleeing the Scene The footage shows two of the jewelry heist suspects descending from the second floor of the museum and then escaping via scooter.
CollectionsOct 24, 2025
Piece of the Week: Wyld Box Jewelry’s ‘Ray of Light’ EarringsFounder and designer Rosanna Fiedler looked to a vintage Cartier clutch when designing the sunlight-inspired drop earrings.
FinancialsOct 23, 2025
Jewelry Sales Resilient Despite Struggles at LVMH, KeringThe luxury conglomerates faced a challenging Q3 amid geopolitical and economic tensions.
SourcingOct 23, 2025
Petra Diamonds Turns to Shareholders to Raise Capital The struggling diamond mining company, which owns the historic Cullinan mine, has launched a rights issue to raise about $25 million.
WatchesOct 23, 2025
‘Million Dollar Hip Hop Watches’ Recounts Watch HistoryThe book details the journey of watches as symbols of hard-earned success in hip-hop for artists like 2Pac, Jay-Z, and more.
AuctionsOct 23, 2025
Freeman’s | Hindman Names New VP, Senior Specialist for Jewelry & WatchesAlexis Vourvoulis, who most recently worked at Tiffany & Co., brings more than two decades of jewelry experience to her new role.
TrendsOct 22, 2025
The Taylor Swift Effect: Antique Diamonds EditionThe superstar’s August engagement put the stamp of approval on an already hot engagement ring trend.
TrendsOct 22, 2025
Don’t Forget These Diamond Jewelry Trends When Stocking for the HolidaysRetailers should offer classic styles with a twist that are a perfect fit for layered looks, experts say.
AuctionsOct 22, 2025
Pink Diamond, Vanderbilt Jewels to Headline Phillips’ Geneva AuctionThe nearly 7-carat fancy vivid purplish pink diamond could sell for around $9 million.
SourcingOct 22, 2025
In ‘Storied Diamond,’ Jared Jewelers Is Emphasizing the Journey The retailer’s new collection of engagement rings and fashion jewelry is set with natural diamonds that are traceable via blockchain.
CollectionsOct 22, 2025
Tiffany & Co.’s ‘Bird on a Rock’ Finds New PerchChief Artistic Officer Nathalie Verdeille has reimagined the iconic design in both figurative and abstract creations.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
JFC Kicks Off Halloween Costume ChallengeFive dollars buys one vote toward an industry professional you want to see dressed up as a hero, or a villain, this Halloween.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
Hillsborough Antique Show Gets New OwnerRecently acquired by KIL Promotions, the November edition of the public show in San Mateo, California, will be held Nov. 7-9.
GradingOct 21, 2025
GIA Examines Rare Bicolor Pink DiamondThe stone’s two zones, one pink and one colorless, may have formed at two different times, the lab said.
MajorsOct 21, 2025
Pomellato Brings ‘Global Attitude’ to Rodeo Drive FlagshipHollywood glamour meets Milanese sophistication in the design of Pomellato’s new store in Beverly Hills, California.
Events & AwardsOct 21, 2025
‘Douriean Fletcher: Jewelry of the Afrofuture’ Opens at MADThe Museum of Arts and Design's new exhibition features 75 pieces by the designer, best known for her work in the “Black Panther” films.
AuctionsOct 20, 2025
Sotheby's To Auction 10-Carat Vivid Pink DiamondMaking its auction debut, "The Glowing Rose" is expected to fetch $20 million at the November jewelry sale in Geneva.
SourcingOct 20, 2025
2 Mozambique Police Officers Killed at Gemfields’ Ruby MineThey were attacked on Oct. 15, as approximately 40 miners without licenses marched on the mine’s gate.
CrimeOct 20, 2025
See the ‘Priceless’ Jewels Stolen During Daytime Heist at the Louvre It took the masked thieves less than 10 minutes to steal eight irreplaceable jewels from two display cases in the museum’s Apollo Gallery.
