Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
IndependentsMay 13, 2025
Eiseman Jewels’ Renovated Dallas Store Is Bigger and BetterLocated in NorthPark Center, the revamped store is nearly 2,000 square feet larger and includes the first Tudor boutique in Dallas.
MajorsMay 13, 2025
DCA Announces New Learning Platform, Course UpdatesThe nonprofit has made updates to the content in its beginner and advanced jewelry sales courses.
MajorsMay 13, 2025
BIJC Launches New Education FundBIJC President Malyia McNaughton will shift roles to lead the new foundation, and Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez will succeed her as president.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
TrendsMay 13, 2025
State of Jewelry Design: The Top 10 Jewelry Trends of the Past DecadeAs a nod to the theme of JCK Las Vegas 2025, “Decades,” National Jeweler took a look back at the top 10 jewelry trends of the past 10 years.
Weekly QuizMay 08, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Policies & IssuesMay 12, 2025
Tariffs on Chinese Imports Temporarily Slashed as U.S.-China Reach Deal Following weekend negotiations, the tax on Chinese goods imported into the United States will drop by 115 percent for the next 90 days.
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
Jewelry By Picasso, Dalí on Display at Florida Art Museum “Artists’ Jewelry: From Cubism to Pop, the Diane Venet Collection” is on view at the Norton Museum of Art through October.
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest AdditionSupplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
Events & AwardsMay 12, 2025
CASE Awards Now Accepting Entries For 2025The deadline to submit is June 16.
IndependentsMay 09, 2025
Lugano Diamonds CEO Resigns Amid Internal InvestigationMoti Ferder stepped down Wednesday and will not receive any severance pay, parent company Compass Diversified said.
CollectionsMay 09, 2025
Pieces of the Week: Marie Lichtenberg’s Collaborations for Mother’s DayLichtenberg partnered with luxury platform Mytheresa on two designs honoring the connection between mothers and daughters.
SourcingMay 09, 2025
Gemfields Resumes Emerald Mining in ZambiaThe miner announced plans to recommence open-pit mining at Kagem.
CrimeMay 08, 2025
Former NYC Jewelry Store Employee Arrested in 2017 Choking Death of Boss Michel Desalles allegedly murdered Omid Gholian inside World of Gold N Diamond using zip ties and then fled the country.
EditorsMay 08, 2025
5 ‘Superfine’ Met Gala Jewelry MomentsAssociate Editor Lauren McLemore shares her favorite looks from a night of style inspired by Black dandyism.
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2025
Instappraise Introduces Game-Changing Trifold Appraisal FormatSponsored by Instappraise
FinancialsMay 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth Notes an Uptick in Engagement Ring Sales in Q1CEO Beth Gerstein discussed the company’s bridal bestsellers, the potential impact of tariffs, and the rising price of gold.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Margot McKinney Lands in the U.S. With New BoutiqueThe brand’s first independent location outside of Australia has opened in Beverly Hills, California.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Verragio Announces New Regional Sales ManagerCathy Marsh will lead the jewelry company’s efforts in the upper Midwest and western United States.
FinancialsMay 07, 2025
Pandora Posts Strong Q1, Plans for TariffsThe company has multiple strategies for dealing with tariffs, though its CEO said moving manufacturing to the U.S. is not one of them.
ColumnistsMay 07, 2025
The Smart Lab: Building a Seasonal Marketing Strategy for Mother’s Day and BeyondConnecting with your customers throughout the year is key to a successful holiday marketing push.
SourcingMay 07, 2025
Gemfields Says Emerald Sales Improved in Latest AuctionIts commercial-quality emerald sale held last month totaled more than $16 million, up from about $11 million in September 2024.
TechnologyMay 07, 2025
Punchmark’s Latest Podcast Features a Very Special Guest National Jeweler Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff joined Michael Burpoe to talk tariffs, consumer confidence, and the sky-high price of gold.
AuctionsMay 06, 2025
Harwell Godfrey Reimagines 10-Carat Blue Diamond for Met Gala-Ready BroochDesigner Lauren Harwell Godfrey made the piece as an homage to the 2025 gala’s theme, “Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.”
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2025
Here’s Who Made Jewelers of America’s New ‘20 Under 40’ ListExpanded this year to include suppliers, JA’s 2025 list honors 40 up-and-coming professionals in the jewelry industry.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens New StoreLocated in Fort Smith, it’s the Mid-South jeweler’s first store in Northwest Arkansas.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Gunderson’s Jewelers to Be Featured on ‘World’s Greatest’ TV SeriesThe episode about the family-owned jeweler will premiere May 17.
IndependentsMay 05, 2025
Zadok Jewelers Opens Store in AustinThe Houston-based jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot showroom will include a Rolex boutique.
