Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
EditorsJan 16, 2026
Remembering Pete Yantzer for His Contributions and His Kindness Pete’s boundless curiosity extended beyond diamond cut and he was always eager to share his knowledge with others, no matter the topic.
FinancialsJan 16, 2026
Richemont’s Jewelry Brands Shine in Q3Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Buccellati, and Vhernier had another successful holiday season, Richemont reported this week.
TrendsJan 16, 2026
Diane Lane's Brooch Buzzes at the 2026 Golden GlobesOur Piece of the Week is Lagos’ “Bee” brooch that was seen on the red carpet for the first time on Sunday.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
CrimeJan 15, 2026
D.C. Rapper ‘Taliban Glizzy’ Sentenced to 18+ Years for Jewelry Store RobberiesTrevor Jonathan Wright led a crew in a string of armed robberies targeting South Asian-owned jewelry stores on the East Coast.
Weekly QuizJan 15, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsJan 15, 2026
Jewelers of Americas’ ‘20 Under 40’ Nominations Now OpenThe program recognizes rising professionals in the jewelry industry.
Events & AwardsJan 15, 2026
Registration for JCK Las Vegas 2026 Is Now OpenA new lifestyle section and a watch showcase have been added to this year’s event.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
TrendsJan 15, 2026
Don’t Double-Dip With This Golden ChipAvocados From Mexico is celebrating those who love to double-dip in game day guacamole with a 14-karat yellow gold tortilla chip necklace.
SourcingJan 15, 2026
Nearly 42-Carat Blue Diamond Discovered in South AfricaPetra Diamonds unearthed the 41.82-carat, Type IIb blue diamond at the Cullinan Mine.
CollectionsJan 14, 2026
Marie Lichtenberg Lassos Leather for New BraceletsThe brand is trading its colorful fabric cords for Italian leather in its “Lasso” baby locket bracelets.
TechnologyJan 14, 2026
“My Next Question” Enters Its Podcast Era National Jeweler and Jewelers of America’s popular webinar series is evolving in 2026.
MajorsJan 14, 2026
Saks Files for Bankruptcy, Names New CEOThe department store chain owes millions to creditors like David Yurman, Roberto Coin, Kering, and LVMH.
CollectionsJan 14, 2026
Boucheron Names Colman Domingo as Brand AmbassadorThe award-winning actor’s visionary approach and creativity echo the spirit of Boucheron, the brand said.
IndependentsJan 14, 2026
Kansas Jeweler Wins 2025 ‘Wag’ AwardEdge Retail Academy honored Burnell’s Fine Jewelry in Wichita, Kansas, with its annual award for business excellence.
ColumnistsJan 13, 2026
2025 Was a ‘Price Up, Units Down’ Year, Here’s What That Signals for 2026 In a market defined by more selective consumers, Sherry Smith shares why execution will be independent jewelers’ key to growth this year.
IndependentsJan 13, 2026
Orr’s Jewelers Opens New Location in Pittsburgh’s Strip DistrictThe family-owned jeweler’s new space is in a former wholesale produce market.
CrimeJan 13, 2026
Alleged Getaway Driver Charged in Florida Jewelry Store RobberyIvel Sanchez Rivera, 52, has been arrested and charged in connection with the armed robbery of Tio Jewelers in Cape Coral, Florida.
SourcingJan 13, 2026
Rio Grande To Offer Calibrated Diamond MeleeThe supplier’s online program allows customers to search and buy calibrated natural and lab-grown diamond melee, including in fancy shapes.
Events & AwardsJan 13, 2026
NYC Jewelry, Antique, & Object Show Announces Winter EventThe new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.
PodcastsJan 12, 2026
Introducing My Next Question, the PodcastA monthly podcast series for jewelry professionals
EditorsJan 12, 2026
Platinum, White Gold Rule the 2026 Golden GlobesAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights her favorite jewelry moments from the Golden Globes, and they are (mostly) white hot.
GradingJan 12, 2026
Peter Yantzer, Former Executive Director of AGS Labs, Dies at 77 Yantzer is remembered for the profound influence he had on diamond cut grading as well as his contagious smile and quick wit.
MajorsJan 12, 2026
These 14 Macy’s Locations Will Close This YearThe store closures are part of the retailer’s “Bold New Chapter” turnaround plan.
MajorsJan 12, 2026
Jewelers Mutual Acquires AI-Powered Event Insurance ProgramThrough EventGuard, the company will offer event liability and cancellation insurance, including wedding coverage.
MajorsJan 09, 2026
Kendra Scott Taps Activewear Exec as CEO Chris Blakeslee has experience at Athleta and Alo Yoga. Kendra Scott will remain on board as executive chair and chief visionary officer.
SurveysJan 09, 2026
U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Up 4%, Visa, Mastercard SayThe credit card companies’ surveys examined where consumers shopped, what they bought, and what they valued this holiday season.
