Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
IndependentsJun 25, 2025
Marissa Collections Opens in Nantucket as Legal Fight ContinuesThe Vault’s Katherine Jetter is accusing the retailer of using info she shared for a potential partnership to move into Nantucket.
CrimeJun 25, 2025
Customs Nabs Another Big Shipment of Fake Cartier, Van Cleef JewelryAgents seized 2,193 pieces, a mix of counterfeit Cartier “Love” and “Juste Un Clou” bracelets, and Van Cleef & Arpels’ “Alhambra” design.
CollectionsJun 25, 2025
Splash into Karina Choudhrie’s Collection of Underwater Circus PerformersThe designer brought her children’s book, “The Big Splash Circus,” to life through a collection of playful fine jewelry characters.
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench JewelersThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.
Events & AwardsJun 25, 2025
JA Announces Impact Initiative Fund RecipientsThe trade association has chosen the recipients of the funding initiative it formed to foster the growth and sustainability of the industry.
Weekly QuizJun 20, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingJun 25, 2025
2025 AGTA Spectrum Awards Open for EntriesThe organization has also announced this year’s slate of judges.
EditorsJun 24, 2025
The Best New Jewelry from Couture 2025, Part 2Associate Editor Natalie Francisco shares 20 additional pieces that stood out to her at the Couture show.
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America is Headed to Las Vegas for JCK 2025The countdown is on for the JCK Las Vegas Show and JA is pulling out all the stops.
IndependentsJun 24, 2025
Colorado Bench Jeweler Celebrates 50 Years With Local RetailerLori Tucker started at Williams Jewelers when she was 18 years old.
WatchesJun 24, 2025
Citizen’s New ‘Fantastic Four’ Watch Is Literally Super The “Marvel | Citizen Zenshin” watch is crafted in Super Titanium and has subtle nods to all four “Fantastic Four” superheroes on the dial.
MajorsJun 24, 2025
Tacori, QVC to Launch Exclusive Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry CollectionThe “XO Tacori” collection was designed to blend luxury and accessible pricing.
GradingJun 23, 2025
GIA Names New President and CEO Pritesh Patel, the lab’s chief operating officer, will take over as president and CEO of GIA.
Recorded WebinarsJun 23, 2025
Watch: Top Trends at Couture, JCK Las Vegas 2025National Jeweler and Jewelers of America discuss the standout jewelry trends and biggest news to emerge from the shows this year.
SourcingJun 23, 2025
Diamond Producers, Organizations to Kick in Money to Promote Natural DiamondsSignatories to the “Luanda Accord” committed to allocating 1 percent of annual diamond revenue to the Natural Diamond Council.
Events & AwardsJun 23, 2025
Jose Hess Design Awards Celebrate 6 Jewelry DesignersThe winning designs captured the “Radiance” theme.
Events & AwardsJun 23, 2025
Gem Awards Now Accepting Nominations for 2026Nominations in the categories of Jewelry Design, Media Excellence, and Retail Innovation will be accepted through July 30.
TrendsJun 20, 2025
Dua Lipa Stays On-Trend With Chunky Engagement RingThe singer’s ring ticks off many bridal trends, with a thick band, half-bezel setting, and solitaire diamond.
TrendsJun 20, 2025
Piece of the Week: Yvonne Léon’s ‘Python Gold’ BraceletThe bracelet references vintage high jewelry and snake symbolism as a playful piece where a python’s head becomes a working belt buckle.
CrimeJun 18, 2025
7 Men Indicted in $100M Brinks Jewelry HeistThe heist happened in Lebec, California, in 2022 when a Brinks truck was transporting goods from one show in California to another.
AuctionsJun 18, 2025
Historic ‘Marie-Thérèse Pink’ Diamond Fetches $14M at Christie’sThe 10-carat fancy purple-pink diamond with potential links to Marie Antoinette headlined the white-glove jewelry auction this week.
EditorsJun 18, 2025
Q&A: Caryl Capeci Dives Into Cruise Jewelry ShoppingThe Starboard Cruises SVP discusses who is shopping for jewelry on ships, how much they’re spending, and why brands should get on board.
AuctionsJun 18, 2025
16th-Century ‘Gresham Grasshopper’ Ring Sells for $56KThe historic signet ring exceeded its estimate at Noonans Mayfair’s jewelry auction this week.
CollectionsJun 18, 2025
Kirk Kara Celebrates 135 Years With New JewelsTo mark the milestone, the brand is introducing new non-bridal fine jewelry designs for the first time in two decades.
SourcingJun 18, 2025
Gemfields Sells 36-Carat Rough RubyThe gemstone is the third most valuable ruby to come out of the Montepuez mine, Gemfields said.
TechnologyJun 18, 2025
Alex Brown Named President of Smithee GroupFounder and longtime CEO Ben Smithee will stay with the agency, transitioning into the role of founding partner and strategic advisor.
EditorsJun 17, 2025
The Best New Jewelry from Couture 2025, Part 1Associate Editor Natalie Francisco shares 20 of her favorite pieces from the jewelry collections that debuted at Couture.
ColumnistsJun 17, 2025
Peter Smith: Is Your Comp Plan a Hiring Hindrance?If you want to attract good salespeople and generate a stream of “sleeping money” for your jewelry store, then you are going to have to pay.
