Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
An Updated Look at the Lab-Grown Diamond Market: Size, Pricing, and More Lab-GrownSep 21, 2022
Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.
A worker at the Lightbox factory in Gresham, Oregon, where De Beers Group grows diamonds. Consumer demand for lab-grown diamonds is increasing, begging the question, what will the market look like in 10 to 15 years? Analyst Paul Zimnisky shared his viewpoints in a new report. (Photo courtesy of Lightbox/De Beers Group)
New York—Lab-grown diamonds are the category currently sparking the most conversation in the industry, from the debate over stocking the stones, to the questions of who is buying them, and who might be selling them in the near future.
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
Related stories will be right here …
But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”
Two pieces in “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular jewelry brand’s new collection of lab-grown diamond jewelry. The line launched in the United States in August following a test in the U.K.
He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
More on Lab-Grown
The Latest
CollectionsJul 15, 2025
Boucheron’s New High Jewelry Calls Attention to Nature’s ImpermanenceThe “Impermanence” collection contemplates nature through the Japanese art of Ikebana (flower arranging) and philosophy of wabi-sabi.
MajorsJul 15, 2025
James Avery Expands to 2 More StatesThe Texas-based jewelry retailer has set up shop in Tennessee and Arizona.
Events & AwardsJul 15, 2025
Neiman Marcus Vet Joins Couture as Brand Director Eric Ford will step into the role, bringing with him decades of experience.
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench JewelersThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.
IndependentsJul 15, 2025
Ben Bridge Jeweler Acquires Olympic ManufacturingIn addition to improved capabilities, the acquisition will allow the jeweler to offer support to other independent jewelers.
Weekly QuizJul 10, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsJul 15, 2025
Guzema Debuts First Colored Gemstone JewelryThe “Celestial Blue” capsule collection campaign features Olympian Kateryna Sadurska.
MajorsJul 14, 2025
Nanis Opens First StoreThe seasonal store, located in Mykonos, Greece, offers exclusive events, personal styling, and curated experiences.
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America is Headed to Las Vegas for JCK 2025The countdown is on for the JCK Las Vegas Show and JA is pulling out all the stops.
IndependentsJul 14, 2025
It’s the Summer of Love at Long’s JewelersThe New England jeweler is hosting a bridal event for the month of August.
SourcingJul 14, 2025
Ethical Gem Fair Heads to SeattleThe trade-only event will host its debut fair in the Emerald City later this month.
Events & AwardsJul 11, 2025
The Edge’s Annual Conference Returns in SeptemberIts sessions will focus on inventory strategies, staff performance, retention and acquisition, emerging market trends, and more.
CollectionsJul 11, 2025
Piece of the Week: Miseno’s ‘Arco’ EarringsFor its 10th anniversary, Miseno designed the “Arco” earrings based on the Arco Felice, an arch conceptualized in A.D. 95 in Miseno, Italy.
Policies & IssuesJul 11, 2025
James Avery to Donate $1M to Texas Hill Country Relief EffortsThe jewelry company is one of several contributing to relief efforts in the region after the recent floods.
TrendsJul 11, 2025
Kelly Osbourne’s Engagement Ring Is Sweet as HoneyInspired by fiancé Sid Wilson’s nickname for her, the white and yellow diamond ring features a unique honeycomb design.
CollectionsJul 10, 2025
Penny Preville Celebrates 5 Decades of Jewelry DesignThe brand is marking its 50th anniversary with a limited-edition bangle, high jewelry suites, new collections, and more.
IndependentsJul 10, 2025
Steven Goldfarb to Retire, Close Alvin Goldfarb JewelerGoldfarb said changes in the industry, coupled with his age and the updates needed to modernize his business, drove his decision.
MajorsJul 10, 2025
LVMH Names New Chairman, CEO of the AmericasLongtime LVMH executive Michael Burke has stepped into the role.
Events & AwardsJul 10, 2025
IAC Gold and Diamond Conference Returns to NYC Central topics of next week’s event include climate action, labor rights, artisan preservation, and value retention in producing countries.
MajorsJul 10, 2025
Hearts On Fire Appoints New Sales DirectorVickie Rokkos has joined the jewelry company as its new national sales director of North America.
SurveysJul 09, 2025
Jewelry Stays Strong as Luxury Market Slows, Bain & Co. Says Turbulence will be the new baseline for luxury as it faces its biggest potential setbacks in 15 years, a recent report said.
Supplier BulletinJul 09, 2025
JCK Unwrapped: Trends, Insights & Post-Show TipsSponsored by Rio Grande Jewelry Supply
CollectionsJul 09, 2025
Cece Jewellery’s New Fruit Jewels Celebrate Life’s SweetnessThe “For the Love of Fruits” collection features five fruit pendants, each holding a different meaning.
EditorsJul 09, 2025
The Most-Read Stories of 2025, So FarDiamonds and crimes (some involving diamonds) top the list of National Jeweler’s most popular stories halfway through the year.
SourcingJul 09, 2025
Florida Couple Finds 3-Carat Diamond in ArkansasThey discovered “The Dash Diamond,” named for their dog, at the Crater of Diamonds State Park earlier this month.
CollectionsJul 08, 2025
Mikimoto’s High Jewelry Collection Turns Pearls into PetalsThe “Les Pétales” collection imagines roses caught mid-bloom as a tribute to nature’s beauty.
ColumnistsJul 08, 2025
Peter Smith: Why Jewelers Struggle With Premium PricingLuxury brands charge thousands for their shoes and handbags. Jewelers pricing diamond products should take note, Peter Smith writes.
IndependentsJul 08, 2025
David Rotenberg of David Craig Jewelers Dies at 79Rotenberg was an active member of the American Gem Society and an accomplished appraiser who also worked with therapy dogs at a hospital.
