Looking Ahead: 4 Factors That Could Shape Lab-Grown Diamonds’ Future
Growing supply and falling prices likely will make differentiation a necessity and a reality, according to analyst Paul Zimnisky.

But in his latest report, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky is taking a more long-term view of the market, telling National Jeweler, “I think the key is to really take a step back and [ask], where is this going to go longer term?”
Published in early August, “What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” outlines the four primary factors Zimnisky believes could shape the lab-grown diamond jewelry market in the next 10 to 15 years.
The first is limitless supply.
According to Zimnisky’s data, the volume of rough diamonds grown for use in jewelry really began to take off around 2018, the same year De Beers Group launched its lab-grown diamond jewelry brand, Lightbox.
He predicts production will continue to climb through the end of the decade, nearing 25 million carats (excluding melee) by 2030, a substantial increase for the category but still just a fraction of global natural diamond production, which reached 120 million carats last year.
China and India, where multiple longtime manufacturers of natural diamonds have gotten into the lab-grown business, are expected to be the top producers.
As production of lab-grown diamonds continues to increase, so will the quality of the stones, which lays the groundwork for the second characteristic Zimnisky believes will shape a mature lab-grown diamond market—the stones likely will be high quality across the board.
The development, the industry analyst contends, could render the grading of lab-grown diamonds unnecessary.
The lack of grading reports, coupled with an increased supply, will further drive down the price of lab-grown diamonds, which already are significantly cheaper than natural diamonds.
According to Zimnisky, in mid-2018, a generic (non-branded) 1-carat, G VS1 lab-grown diamond retailed for $3,625, compared with $6,600 for a natural diamond of the same size and quality.
Today, that same lab-grown diamond retails for $1,615 while the natural is $6,705.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.” — Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
The expectation that prices will continue to drop sets the stage for the final two factors to come into play—branding and proprietary design, and custom shapes and colors.
There are existing jewelry companies positioned to pull off a “luxurious” version of lab-grown diamonds by leveraging existing brand value, with Zimnisky noting in his report, “A product does not necessarily need to be limited by nature for it to be rare or luxurious.”
He points to the Hermès Birkin bag as an example.
Hermès deliberately limits the supply to drive up value, and it works, with the coveted handbag trading hands for tens of thousands of dollars, at least, on the secondhand market.
“Theoretically, if Hermès came out with an exclusive, limited-edition lab-grown diamond ring, it would likely be perceived by consumers as an Hermès ring first, and a lab-grown diamond ring second,” Zimnisky writes.
“Longer-term, it will likely be higher-priced lab-grown diamond jewelry that competes the most with natural diamonds.”

He does, however, see the opportunity for a “bridge” category of lab-grown diamond jewelry to emerge, lines that are lower-priced but affiliated with “premium” brands.
He points to “Pandora Brilliance,” the popular charm brand’s lab-grown diamond line that arrived in the United States late last month, as a current example.
Tested in the U.K. and proven to be more popular for gift-giving than for self-purchase, the line seems poised to take off in the U.S., with 33 styles to choose from in sterling silver or 14-karat gold and prices starting at $300.
“Pandora will be successful,” Zimnisky said. “They already have the right customer, distribution lined up, the right price point. It fits their business model better than anyone [else’s], in my opinion.”
Like branding, the fourth factor expected to shape the future of the lab-grown market—custom shapes and colors—will be a path diamond growers pursue in order to set themselves apart as prices fall and quality equalizes across the board.
Growers will take advantage of the stones’ lower prices to experiment in ways not possible or financially feasible with natural diamonds, Zimnisky said.
Indeed, some shape and color experimentation has popped up in the market already.
In 2018, Apple’s Jony Ive and design partner Marc Newson partnered with diamond grower Diamond Foundry in 2018 to create a ring entirely made out of diamond, while Swarovski rolled out of a line of imaginatively named lab-grown diamonds in a wide variety of colors in early 2020.
“People will eventually be able to go to a website and get a diamond cut into whatever shape they want,” Zimnisky predicts, whether it’s a Star of David, a cross, or a cat.
“What a Mature Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry Market Could Look Like” is available in its entirety on Zimnisky’s website.
The Latest

From design trends to sustainability, here’s a roundup of can’t-miss education sessions at JCK Las Vegas.

The Jewelers’ Security Alliance offers advice for those attending the annual trade shows.

Her new role is director of strategic initiatives.

When investing in your jewelry business, it's important not to overlook the most crucial element of success: the sales associates.

The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.


The designer is embracing bold pieces with weight to them in “AU79,” a collection she celebrated with a creative launch party.

On an earnings call, CEO J.K. Symancyk discussed what’s working for the company and how it’s preparing for the potential impact of tariffs.

More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.

The index partially rebounded after months of decline, due in part to the U.S.-China deal to temporarily reduce import tariffs.

The actress stars in the latest campaign set in Venice, Italy, and is set to participate in other creative initiatives for the jeweler.

The company has joined other labs, including GIA and Lotus Gemology, in adopting the Chinese term for "jadeite jade."

The large stone will be offered at its June sale along with a selection of secondary-type rubies from a new area of the Montepuez mine.

Located in Bangkok, the laboratory is Gemological Science International’s 14th location worldwide.

Those born in June have a myriad of options for their birthstone jewelry.

The diamond industry veteran has been named its senior sales executive.

The company plans to raise the prices of select watches to offset the impact of tariffs.

Between tariffs and the sky-high cost of gold, designers enter this year’s Las Vegas shows with a lot of questions and few answers.

Designed by founder Renato and his daughter Serena Cipullo, it showcases a flame motif representing unity and the power of gathering.

However, the tariffs remain in effect in the short term, as an appeals court has stayed the U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision.

The pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.

Sponsored by Stuller

It was featured in the miner’s latest sale, which brought in $24.8 million.

GemText AI uses artificial intelligence to generate tailored product titles, descriptions, and tags with jewelry-specific language.

The 3,300-square foot location is the jeweler's largest store in North America.

Aging and with myriad health issues, none will serve time for their roles in robbing the billionaire celebrity at gunpoint in 2016.

The WNBA team received rings imbued with meaning, from leaf motifs and its Liberty torch to the number of diamonds used.

A longtime executive at RDI Diamonds, Rickard has served on the JBT board for the past five years.