TrendsSep 23, 2026
Holiday Diamond Jewelry Trends: Layered Looks, PersonalizationThis holiday season, look to pieces that will help to fill out customers’ everyday diamond jewelry wardrobe, experts say.
MajorsMar 24, 2016
Deloitte: A US Recession Remains ‘Unlikely’
What is likely, however, is that the economy will keep growing at its current slow, and some would say unsatisfactory, pace.
New York--A report released this week by Deloitte states that the chance the United States will slip into another recession is slim but so is the probability that growth will pick up substantially.
In its U.S. Economic Forecast published online Tuesday, Deloitte stated that, “The likelihood of a recession remains low but the highest probability is that the slow, unsatisfactory growth of the post-recession period in the U.S. is the economy’s new normal.”
In the forecast, the New York-based professional services firm sketched out four different possible future paths for the U.S. economy and then placed subjective probabilities on each.
The least likely scenario is recession, with Deloitte putting the odds of another massive slowdown at only 5 percent.
The scenario Deloitte pinpointed as being the most likely, at 55 percent, is “the baseline,” where U.S. domestic demand is strong enough to provide employment for workers returning to the labor force, unemployment hovers around 5 percent and annual GDP growth is capped at about 3 percent.
The two other scenarios outlined were slower growth (25 percent) and a coordinated global boom (15 percent).
Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecast, which was published online Tuesday, also delved into specific sectors of the economy, including consumer spending.
According to the report, the U.S. consumer, the “longtime supporter of the global economy,” has remained surprisingly resilient but has begun saving more money, not spending like they did in the early 2000s.
Deloitte said it expects the U.S. savings rate to settle in at just over 5 percent, which is consistent with the amount of money consumers saved in the 1990s.
The report also noted that while there has been job growth and wages have picked up a little too, the consumer still faces a few obstacles.
Chief among them are the number of homeowners who remain “underwater” on their mortgages, baby boomers nearing or at retirement with inadequate savings and the growing wealth gap.
The Deloitte report states that, “As long as a large share of the gains from technology and other economic improvements flows to a relatively small number of households, overall U.S. consumer spending is likely to remain relatively restrained.”
The report was authored by Daniel Bachman, a senior manager for U.S. macroeconomics at Deloitte Services LP.
Download a PDF of the entire forecast on the Deloitte University Press website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Majors
The Latest
SourcingSep 23, 2026
Organization That Promotes Natural Diamond Rebrands for Third Time The Natural Diamond Council is now The Diamond Collective and has announced a new strategy under CEO Amber Pepper.
IndependentsSep 23, 2026
This Milwaukee-Area Jeweler Is Serving the 7CsPaul’s Jewelers sells coffee, chocolate, and cookies from a custom gold-wrapped trailer parked outside the store starting at 7 a.m.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
Events & AwardsSep 23, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Exhibition Opening at Arkansas Museum The curation, opening soon at the Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art, honors the jeweler’s heritage through a distinctly American lens.
Weekly QuizSep 17, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsSep 23, 2026
Pucker Up for Pandora’s New Pat McGrath Jewelry CollabThe jewelry giant has partnered with the famed makeup artist to create a colorful new collection of charms and rings.
IndependentsSep 23, 2026
Texas Jewelers Association to Celebrate 120th AnniversaryThe association will mark the milestone at its convention next month.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
IndependentsSep 23, 2026
Sissy’s Log Cabin’s ‘Back to School and Bling’ Event ReturnsThe jeweler donated school supplies to Memphis, Tennessee, students during the event combining basketball and mentorship.
ColumnistsSep 22, 2026
Peter Smith: Our Struggle With Emotional SellingPeople aren’t thinking rationally when they are buying luxury products, and we shouldn’t be selling them that way, Peter Smith writes.
IndependentsSep 22, 2026
Constance Polamalu Named to '40 Under 40' ListThe Baltimore Business Journal recognized the entrepreneur for her leadership in business and the jewelry industry.
GradingSep 22, 2026
GCAL by Sarine Opens New Lab in MumbaiThe facility is located within SEEPZ and is GCAL by Sarine’s second location in India, joining its existing grading lab in Surat.
Events & AwardsSep 22, 2026
NYCJAOS Returns for Autumn EditionThe four-day show is slated for Nov. 19-22 at the Metropolitan Pavilion in New York City’s Chelsea neighborhood.
AuctionsSep 21, 2026
Ultra-Rare Cartier Cheich Watch Sells for $3.4M Offered at Sotheby’s Hong Kong, the one-of-a-kind white gold watch now holds the title of most valuable Cartier wristwatch sold at auction.
MajorsSep 21, 2026
Longtime Industry Executive Pamela Bernstein-Gulla to RetireBernstein-Gulla has been working in the jewelry industry for 40 years, most recently as chief engagement officer for Hill & Co.
IndependentsSep 21, 2026
Bhindi Jewelers Moves Into New, Larger California StoreThe relocated Glendale store, now at The Americana at Brand, was designed to be a contemporary “timepiece haven” inspired by luxury resorts.
AuctionsSep 18, 2026
7.52-Carat Unheated Paraíba Tourmaline Sells for $1.3M at Sotheby’s The top lot of the auction house’s Hong Kong jewelry sale was an Art Deco Mauboussin necklace with ruby beads, which sold for $2 million.
Policies & IssuesSep 18, 2026
Tariffs, Retail Crime Top of Mind at JA’s Annual Fly-In Retailers and manufacturers headed to the Capitol this week to discuss tariff exemptions for diamonds and gemstones, among other issues.
CollectionsSep 18, 2026
Nanis Transforms Its ‘Boule’ Into a Mirror Our Piece of the Week is a pair of drop earrings from the “Sway” collection featuring Nanis’ first use of mirror-polished gold.
GradingSep 18, 2026
De Beers Introduces Faster Version of Diamond Screening Machine SynthDetect 2 can scan a full tray in less than five minutes, De Beers said, making it six times faster than its predecessors.
AuctionsSep 18, 2026
Noonans To Auction Medieval Gold Seal Ring Recovered By 2 FriendsTwo metal detectorists discovered the ring, which may have belonged to English noblewoman Matilda of Lancaster, in Suffolk.
Policies & IssuesSep 17, 2026
Tariffs on India Could Increase as Russian Sanctions Bill Heads to Trump’s DeskThe bill has a provision that allows the president to raise tariffs on countries that import Russian oil and gas to as much as 100 percent.
Events & AwardsSep 17, 2026
This Is the Winner of the 2026 Robert M. Shipley AwardThe American Gem Society presented the annual award to a former president of its board.
CollectionsSep 17, 2026
Cynthia Erivo, Zoë Chicco’s Jewelry Collab Is an Ode to TransformationThe “Chrysalis” capsule centers butterfly motifs representing growth, transformation, and the unfolding of who you are.
Events & AwardsSep 17, 2026
Louisiana Retailer Kevin Patton Wins Lifetime Achievement AwardJewelers of Louisiana presented Patton, the third-generation president of Pattons Fine Jewelry, with the award at its annual convention.
PodcastsSep 16, 2026
Episode 9: Remembering Cindy EdelsteinTwo special guests join the podcast to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the designer advocate, mentor, and author’s untimely passing.
CollectionsSep 16, 2026
Jessica McCormack, L’Objet Collab on Homewares CollectionMcCormack brings sea-inspired motifs from her “Beaches” collection to L’Objet’s tableware, vanity pieces, and first-ever cutlery set.
