EditorsJan 16, 2026
Remembering Pete Yantzer for His Contributions and His Kindness Pete’s boundless curiosity extended beyond diamond cut and he was always eager to share his knowledge with others, no matter the topic.
MajorsMar 24, 2016
Deloitte: A US Recession Remains ‘Unlikely’
What is likely, however, is that the economy will keep growing at its current slow, and some would say unsatisfactory, pace.
New York--A report released this week by Deloitte states that the chance the United States will slip into another recession is slim but so is the probability that growth will pick up substantially.
In its U.S. Economic Forecast published online Tuesday, Deloitte stated that, “The likelihood of a recession remains low but the highest probability is that the slow, unsatisfactory growth of the post-recession period in the U.S. is the economy’s new normal.”
In the forecast, the New York-based professional services firm sketched out four different possible future paths for the U.S. economy and then placed subjective probabilities on each.
The least likely scenario is recession, with Deloitte putting the odds of another massive slowdown at only 5 percent.
The scenario Deloitte pinpointed as being the most likely, at 55 percent, is “the baseline,” where U.S. domestic demand is strong enough to provide employment for workers returning to the labor force, unemployment hovers around 5 percent and annual GDP growth is capped at about 3 percent.
The two other scenarios outlined were slower growth (25 percent) and a coordinated global boom (15 percent).
Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecast, which was published online Tuesday, also delved into specific sectors of the economy, including consumer spending.
According to the report, the U.S. consumer, the “longtime supporter of the global economy,” has remained surprisingly resilient but has begun saving more money, not spending like they did in the early 2000s.
Deloitte said it expects the U.S. savings rate to settle in at just over 5 percent, which is consistent with the amount of money consumers saved in the 1990s.
The report also noted that while there has been job growth and wages have picked up a little too, the consumer still faces a few obstacles.
Chief among them are the number of homeowners who remain “underwater” on their mortgages, baby boomers nearing or at retirement with inadequate savings and the growing wealth gap.
The Deloitte report states that, “As long as a large share of the gains from technology and other economic improvements flows to a relatively small number of households, overall U.S. consumer spending is likely to remain relatively restrained.”
The report was authored by Daniel Bachman, a senior manager for U.S. macroeconomics at Deloitte Services LP.
Download a PDF of the entire forecast on the Deloitte University Press website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Majors
The Latest
FinancialsJan 16, 2026
Richemont’s Jewelry Brands Shine in Q3Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Buccellati, and Vhernier had another successful holiday season, Richemont reported this week.
TrendsJan 16, 2026
Diane Lane's Brooch Buzzes at the 2026 Golden GlobesOur Piece of the Week is Lagos’ “Bee” brooch that was seen on the red carpet for the first time on Sunday.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
CrimeJan 15, 2026
D.C. Rapper ‘Taliban Glizzy’ Sentenced to 18+ Years for Jewelry Store RobberiesTrevor Jonathan Wright led a crew in a string of armed robberies targeting South Asian-owned jewelry stores on the East Coast.
Weekly QuizJan 15, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsJan 15, 2026
Jewelers of Americas’ ‘20 Under 40’ Nominations Now OpenThe program recognizes rising professionals in the jewelry industry.
Events & AwardsJan 15, 2026
Registration for JCK Las Vegas 2026 Is Now OpenA new lifestyle section and a watch showcase have been added to this year’s event.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
TrendsJan 15, 2026
Don’t Double-Dip With This Golden ChipAvocados From Mexico is celebrating those who love to double-dip in game day guacamole with a 14-karat yellow gold tortilla chip necklace.
SourcingJan 15, 2026
Nearly 42-Carat Blue Diamond Discovered in South AfricaPetra Diamonds unearthed the 41.82-carat, Type IIb blue diamond at the Cullinan Mine.
CollectionsJan 14, 2026
Marie Lichtenberg Lassos Leather for New BraceletsThe brand is trading its colorful fabric cords for Italian leather in its “Lasso” baby locket bracelets.
TechnologyJan 14, 2026
“My Next Question” Enters Its Podcast Era National Jeweler and Jewelers of America’s popular webinar series is evolving in 2026.
CollectionsJan 14, 2026
Boucheron Names Colman Domingo as Brand AmbassadorThe award-winning actor’s visionary approach and creativity echo the spirit of Boucheron, the brand said.
IndependentsJan 14, 2026
Kansas Jeweler Wins 2025 ‘Wag’ AwardEdge Retail Academy honored Burnell’s Fine Jewelry in Wichita, Kansas, with its annual award for business excellence.
ColumnistsJan 13, 2026
2025 Was a ‘Price Up, Units Down’ Year, Here’s What That Signals for 2026 In a market defined by more selective consumers, Sherry Smith shares why execution will be independent jewelers’ key to growth this year.
IndependentsJan 13, 2026
Orr’s Jewelers Opens New Location in Pittsburgh’s Strip DistrictThe family-owned jeweler’s new space is in a former wholesale produce market.
CrimeJan 13, 2026
Alleged Getaway Driver Charged in Florida Jewelry Store RobberyIvel Sanchez Rivera, 52, has been arrested and charged in connection with the armed robbery of Tio Jewelers in Cape Coral, Florida.
SourcingJan 13, 2026
Rio Grande To Offer Calibrated Diamond MeleeThe supplier’s online program allows customers to search and buy calibrated natural and lab-grown diamond melee, including in fancy shapes.
Events & AwardsJan 13, 2026
NYC Jewelry, Antique, & Object Show Announces Winter EventThe new show will take place Jan. 23-25, 2026.
PodcastsJan 12, 2026
Introducing My Next Question, the PodcastA monthly podcast series for jewelry professionals
EditorsJan 12, 2026
Platinum, White Gold Rule the 2026 Golden GlobesAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights her favorite jewelry moments from the Golden Globes, and they are (mostly) white hot.
GradingJan 12, 2026
Peter Yantzer, Former Executive Director of AGS Labs, Dies at 77 Yantzer is remembered for the profound influence he had on diamond cut grading as well as his contagious smile and quick wit.
MajorsJan 12, 2026
Jewelers Mutual Acquires AI-Powered Event Insurance ProgramThrough EventGuard, the company will offer event liability and cancellation insurance, including wedding coverage.
MajorsJan 09, 2026
Kendra Scott Taps Activewear Exec as CEO Chris Blakeslee has experience at Athleta and Alo Yoga. Kendra Scott will remain on board as executive chair and chief visionary officer.
SurveysJan 09, 2026
U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Up 4%, Visa, Mastercard SayThe credit card companies’ surveys examined where consumers shopped, what they bought, and what they valued this holiday season.
AuctionsJan 09, 2026
Christie’s Names New Global Managing Director for LuxuryKimberly Miller has been promoted to the role.
CollectionsJan 09, 2026
Piece of the Week: Lionheart’s ‘Serenity’ Opal CharmThe “Serenity” charm set with 13 opals is a modern amulet offering protection, guidance, and intention, the brand said.
