SourcingJul 31, 2025
De Beers Records $189M First-Half Loss The diamond miner and marketer warned last week that it expected to be in the red after significantly cutting prices in Q2.
SurveysOct 05, 2016
The Forecast for the Holiday Season: Merry and Bright
The NRF and Deloitte both predict that sales will increase about 4 percent while PricewaterhouseCoopers has an even more bullish outlook.
New York--Retail sales predictions for the upcoming holiday season are optimistic, with forecasters citing increased consumer confidence, lower unemployment and growing household wealth as the reason for their bullish outlook.
On Tuesday, the National Retail Federation said it expects U.S. sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) to increase a “solid” 3.6 percent year-over-year to $655.8 billion.
That is significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and also above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since the economic recovery began in 2009.
Additionally, the NRF forecasts that non-store sales (direct to consumer, kiosks and online sales) will be up between 7 and 10 percent, reaching $117 billion.
“Consumers have seen steady job and income gains throughout the year, resulting in continued confidence and the greater use of credit, which bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a news release.
The NRF notes, however, that there are a few factors at play that could shake consumer confidence and impact holiday sales, namely increased geopolitical uncertainty, unseasonably warm weather and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
So, which candidate--Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump--will be more detrimental to consumer confidence and holiday spending?
The NRF wasn’t biting on that question when pressed about politics during a call with reporters Tuesday morning.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast is not based on the assumption of one candidate’s victory over the other in the election, which will be over in 33 days (not that anyone’s counting), but rather current economic factors.
He added that the NRF does not take a public position on presidential elections, though he did note that the organization is “not particularly encouraged by either candidate’s platform on a number of issues,” specifically trade.
“Small, independent retailers and local artisans are expected to compete for consumers (this holiday season) by offering personal service as well as unique and hand-made gifts.” --Steven Barr, PricewaterhouseCoopersWhen asked on that same call what makes this holiday season better than last year--when the NRF predicted a 3.7 percent sales gain only to have the season finish at 3 percent--Kleinhenz cited many of the same economic factors underlined in the NRF’s forecast: lower unemployment and increased net worth, along with rising home prices.
Deloitte, which released its prediction for the holiday season back in September, also forecasts growth in the 4 percent range for November
through January, while PricewaterhouseCoopers anticipates a sales increase that’s more than double that.
In its forecast, also released on Tuesday, PwC said holiday spending will reach its highest point since the Great Recession, increasing 10 percent year-over-year.
And while gifts of travel and entertainment will continue to gain ground on traditional gifts, U.S. retail and consumer leader Steven Barr said, “Small, independent retailers and local artisans are expected to compete for consumers by offering personal service as well as unique and hand-made gifts.”
He also echoed the NRF’s claim of increased consumer confidence, saying “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season.”
In its forecast, also released on Tuesday, PwC said holiday spending will reach its highest point since the Great Recession, increasing 10 percent year-over-year.
And while gifts of travel and entertainment will continue to gain ground on traditional gifts, U.S. retail and consumer leader Steven Barr said, “Small, independent retailers and local artisans are expected to compete for consumers by offering personal service as well as unique and hand-made gifts.”
He also echoed the NRF’s claim of increased consumer confidence, saying “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season.”
More on Surveys
The Latest
Events & AwardsJul 31, 2025
These Are the 2025 CASE Award WinnersJewelers of America’s 35th annual design contest recognized creativity, artistry, style, and excellence.
IndependentsJul 31, 2025
Matthew Tratner Takes Over as CBG President Tratner succeeds Andie Weinman, who will begin stepping back from the buying group’s day-to-day operations.
Brought to you by
Taking the Moment Head On: How Rio Grande Champions the Present & Future of Fine JewelryAs a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.
Policies & IssuesJul 30, 2025
Tariff on India Will Be 25%, Trump Says The president made the announcement via Truth Social Wednesday, adding that India also will face a penalty for its dealings with Russia.
Weekly QuizJul 31, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
FinancialsJul 30, 2025
Kering's Jewelry Brands Resilient As H1 Sales Slide 16%The luxury titan’s star brand Gucci continued to struggle amid a "tough" environment.
WatchesJul 30, 2025
Peek Inside Zadok Jewelers’ New Rolex Showroom in AustinIts opening marks the completion of the retailer’s new 11,000-square-foot store in the Texas capital.
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench JewelersThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.
SourcingJul 30, 2025
Rob Bates to Release Latest Book in His ‘Diamond District Mystery’ Series“Making a Killing in Diamonds” tells the story of Mimi Rosen, the disappearance of a scientist, and the murder of lab-grown diamond CEO.
EditorsJul 29, 2025
Out & About: Visiting Tacori’s Design Studio in LASenior Editor Lenore Fedow learned a lot when she took a behind-the-scenes factory tour with the jewelry brand earlier this year.
Events & AwardsJul 29, 2025
Melee The Show Welcomes 15 New DesignersThe first-time exhibitors, set to debut at the New York City show, share a devotion to craftsmanship, storytelling, and material integrity.
SourcingJul 29, 2025
Auctim to Offer 7.3M+ Carats of Rough EmeraldsThe online auction house’s September sale will feature rough Brazilian emeralds of various qualities.
MajorsJul 29, 2025
Alexis Padis Re-Elected AGS Board President She’ll lead an executive committee consisting of President-Elect Bryan Moeller, Mitchell Clark, Bill Farmer, and Larry Rickert.
Policies & IssuesJul 28, 2025
U.S.-EU Come to Agreement on Tariffs Announced Sunday, the deal will set the tax on goods imported into the United States from the European Union at 15 percent.
CollectionsJul 28, 2025
Nanis Brings a New Palette to ‘Ipanema’A new edition of the Italian brand’s “Ipanema” collection has debuted with gemstones that evoke Brazil’s breathtaking views.
MajorsJul 28, 2025
The 1916 Company Partners with ‘Shark Tank’ Star’s Watch Insurance PlatformThe retailer will refer its customers to WonderCare, founded by venture capitalist and watch collector Kevin O’Leary.
IndependentsJul 28, 2025
Sissy’s Log Cabin to Open Flagship in Arkansas The jeweler’s largest store yet is set to open in Little Rock next fall.
CollectionsJul 25, 2025
Piece of the Week: Jemma Wynne’s ‘Forme’ NecklaceAnne Hathaway was seen wearing the toggle necklace three times while filming scenes for “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”
Events & AwardsJul 25, 2025
Pre-Registration Open for September Hong Kong ShowJewellery & Gem World Hong Kong is scheduled for Sept. 15 to 21, and buyer pre-registration will be available until Sept. 7.
FinancialsJul 25, 2025
LVMH Sales Slip in H1 Amid ‘Prevailing Uncertainties’Renovations at Tiffany & Co. stores ate into profits in the company’s watch and jewelry division.
Events & AwardsJul 24, 2025
2 Retailers to Receive 2026 Gem Award for Lifetime AchievementMark and Candy Udell of London Jewelers will receive the honor at the 24th annual Gem Awards next March.
SourcingJul 24, 2025
De Beers Sees Diamond Production Sink 36% in Q2 While struggles continue at the mining and trading end of the pipeline, consumer demand for diamond jewelry is holding steady.
CollectionsJul 24, 2025
Francesca Villa Adds Dimension to Her Intaglio CharactersThe “Fantasia” jewelry collection turns the intaglio animals from her “Close Encounters” collection into 3D characters.
WatchesJul 24, 2025
Breitling Drops Super Bowl Watch Honoring the Philadelphia Eagles The special Classic Avi Chronograph 42 with an Eagles-green dial is limited to 59 pieces, a nod to the Super Bowl Philadelphia just won.
CrimeJul 23, 2025
JSA Warns of Violent String of Smash-and-Grabs in California JSA has received reports of mobs swarming jewelry stores, driving cars into the storefront or smashing through the windows.
CollectionsJul 23, 2025
Silvia Furmanovich’s ‘Kashmir’ Collection Is a Tribute to Northern IndiaThe “Kashmir” collection features centuries-old craft techniques made in collaboration with the region’s master papier-mâché artisans.
IndependentsJul 23, 2025
Montreal’s Ecksand Eyes Move to SoHoCreative Director Erica Bianchini shared why the jeweler is looking to expand into the U.S. and how it’s putting Canadian craftsmanship on the map.
