TrendsDec 08, 2023
Pantone’s Color of the Year Is Warm and FuzzyThe peachy hue also marks the program’s 25th anniversary.
SurveysOct 05, 2016
The Forecast for the Holiday Season: Merry and Bright
The NRF and Deloitte both predict that sales will increase about 4 percent while PricewaterhouseCoopers has an even more bullish outlook.
New York--Retail sales predictions for the upcoming holiday season are optimistic, with forecasters citing increased consumer confidence, lower unemployment and growing household wealth as the reason for their bullish outlook.
On Tuesday, the National Retail Federation said it expects U.S. sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) to increase a “solid” 3.6 percent year-over-year to $655.8 billion.
That is significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and also above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since the economic recovery began in 2009.
Additionally, the NRF forecasts that non-store sales (direct to consumer, kiosks and online sales) will be up between 7 and 10 percent, reaching $117 billion.
“Consumers have seen steady job and income gains throughout the year, resulting in continued confidence and the greater use of credit, which bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a news release.
The NRF notes, however, that there are a few factors at play that could shake consumer confidence and impact holiday sales, namely increased geopolitical uncertainty, unseasonably warm weather and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
So, which candidate--Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump--will be more detrimental to consumer confidence and holiday spending?
The NRF wasn’t biting on that question when pressed about politics during a call with reporters Tuesday morning.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast is not based on the assumption of one candidate’s victory over the other in the election, which will be over in 33 days (not that anyone’s counting), but rather current economic factors.
He added that the NRF does not take a public position on presidential elections, though he did note that the organization is “not particularly encouraged by either candidate’s platform on a number of issues,” specifically trade.
“Small, independent retailers and local artisans are expected to compete for consumers (this holiday season) by offering personal service as well as unique and hand-made gifts.” --Steven Barr, PricewaterhouseCoopersWhen asked on that same call what makes this holiday season better than last year--when the NRF predicted a 3.7 percent sales gain only to have the season finish at 3 percent--Kleinhenz cited many of the same economic factors underlined in the NRF’s forecast: lower unemployment and increased net worth, along with rising home prices.
Deloitte, which released its prediction for the holiday season back in September, also forecasts growth in the 4 percent range for November
through January, while PricewaterhouseCoopers anticipates a sales increase that’s more than double that.
In its forecast, also released on Tuesday, PwC said holiday spending will reach its highest point since the Great Recession, increasing 10 percent year-over-year.
And while gifts of travel and entertainment will continue to gain ground on traditional gifts, U.S. retail and consumer leader Steven Barr said, “Small, independent retailers and local artisans are expected to compete for consumers by offering personal service as well as unique and hand-made gifts.”
He also echoed the NRF’s claim of increased consumer confidence, saying “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season.”
In its forecast, also released on Tuesday, PwC said holiday spending will reach its highest point since the Great Recession, increasing 10 percent year-over-year.
And while gifts of travel and entertainment will continue to gain ground on traditional gifts, U.S. retail and consumer leader Steven Barr said, “Small, independent retailers and local artisans are expected to compete for consumers by offering personal service as well as unique and hand-made gifts.”
He also echoed the NRF’s claim of increased consumer confidence, saying “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season.”
More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsDec 08, 2023
Sotheby’s Sold All Mary Tyler Moore’s JewelryThe 21 pieces up for auction, including Tiffany & Co. jewels and a Cartier watch, garnered more than $430,000 across two sales.
CollectionsDec 08, 2023
Piece of the Week: A ‘Strong & Precious’ Brooch Centered on a sunny heliodor, the “Links” pin was designed by Ukrainian jewelry artist Inesa Kovalova.
Brought to you by
The Most Important “C” in Diamonds: Confidence!Without the ability to instill confidence within the industry and directly to the consumer, a diamond holds very little value.
MajorsDec 07, 2023
Lashbrook Sues Manly Bands for Allegedly Copying Designs The wedding band company is also accusing its former customer of removing watermarks from Lashbrook images for its own use.
Weekly QuizDec 07, 2023
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge with this short test.
Policies & IssuesDec 07, 2023
The G7’s Long-Awaited Statement on Russian Diamonds Is Here It provides a timeline for the implementation of new restrictions, but no details.
MajorsDec 07, 2023
24 Karat Club of New York Welcomes New MembersThe organization has elected 12 new additions.
Brought to you by
If It’s Custom, Make It PlatinumWith holiday proposals right around the corner, encourage your customers to go for platinum when making the big purchase.
ColumnistsDec 06, 2023
On Data: How Are Independents Doing So Far This Holiday Season? Sherry Smith breaks down the numbers on jewelry sales in November and reveals the category that “emerged as a standout.”
AuctionsDec 06, 2023
A Yellow Diamond, Hollywood Jewels Stand Out at Sotheby’s Additional lots will be offered in the Fine Jewels online sale through Dec. 7.
GradingDec 06, 2023
GIA Debuts Revamped Graduate Jeweler ProgramBy mixing creative and practical skills, the new course hopes to fill the industry’s bench jeweler gap.
AuctionsDec 06, 2023
Verdura Cuff, Burmese Sapphire Shine at Bonhams Several other colored gemstones joined the pieces in the top 10 list.
FinancialsDec 05, 2023
Signet Jewelers’ Q3 Sales Down 12% The retailer is still expecting a strong holiday season with improving demand for natural diamonds.
CrimeDec 05, 2023
Police Continue to Investigate Murder of Colorado Jeweler Peter Damian Arguello, the owner of Peter Damian Fine Jewelry & Antiques, was shot and killed in an apparent robbery last week.
MajorsDec 05, 2023
Tanishq Continues U.S. Expansion With 2 New StoresThe Indian jewelry giant has opened locations in Houston and Frisco, Texas.
SourcingDec 05, 2023
Grandview Klein Awards Two Scholarships in NamibiaEach student was provided with the full amount of tuition for the Namibia University of Science & Technology.
SourcingDec 04, 2023
David Prager To Leave De Beers in 2024Ryan Perry, who has been with De Beers since 2002, also will be leaving the company next year.
WatchesDec 04, 2023
Chrono24 Debuts the ‘Dow Jones’ for Luxury WatchesThe watch seller’s new index tracks sales data from 14 brands, including Rolex and Patek Philippe.
MajorsDec 04, 2023
David Bouffard to Leave Signet, RJCThe industry veteran will step down from both roles in April 2024.
TrendsDec 04, 2023
Amanda’s Style File: Decadent DecemberTanzanite, turquoise, and zircon are all options for December babies, who sometimes “get the birthday shaft,” Amanda Gizzi writes.
Lab-GrownDec 01, 2023
Lightbox Teams Up With Brand Founded by Former Tiffany ExecThe lab-grown diamond brand also collaborated with the website The Future Rocks on a collection launching today.
FinancialsDec 01, 2023
Movado Lowers Guidance Again After Q3 Sales DipThe company said it is facing a “challenging retail environment” but is prepared for the holiday season.
CollectionsDec 01, 2023
Piece of the Week: Muzo’s Emerald and Argyle Pink Diamond NecklaceIt’s the hero piece of the newest "Green Jewel" collection, a collaborative offering from the two mines.
AuctionsNov 30, 2023
This Pink Diamond Reigned Supreme in Hong KongThe 15.48-carat fancy intense “Pink Supreme” topped Christie’s fall jewelry auction in Asia, while a Patek Philippe led the watch sale.
MajorsNov 30, 2023
Claire’s Hires Former Bath & Body Works Exec as CFO, COOChris Cramer, who also spent time at Gen Z intimates brand Parade, will take on the dual role.
AuctionsNov 30, 2023
Sotheby’s To Auction 133-Carat Yellow DiamondThe stone headlining the upcoming sale could fetch up to $5 million.
IndependentsNov 30, 2023
Frank Adams Rolls Out Kwiat’s ‘Mine to Shine’ ProgramThe retail offering lets customers track their diamond’s journey.
